lincolnshire research observatory local performance and prospects for growth local economic and...
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Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Local Economic and Business Performance,
and Our Prospects for Growth Adam Peacock
Principal Development Officer
Research and Information Team
Lincolnshire County Council
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Unemployment
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,000
30,000
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Business Performance – Sales/Orders
For businesses involved in the UKmarket, over the past 3 months, andexcluding seasonal variations:Sales/Custom/Bookings
For businesses involved in the UKmarket, over the past 3 months, andexcluding seasonal variations:Orders/Advanced Custom/Bookings
Stay the Same
Increase
Decrease
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
For businesses involved in overseasmarkets, over the past 3 months, andexcluding seasonal variations:Sales/Custom/Bookings
For businesses involved in overseasmarkets, over the past 3 months, andexcluding seasonal variations:Orders/Advanced Custom/Bookings
Business Performance - Exports
Stay the Same
Increase
Decrease
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Profitability in past 3months
Expected Profitability in thenext 12 mths
Business Performance - Profitability
Stay the Same
Increase
Decrease
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Over the past 3 months, hasyour company's turnoverincreased, decreased orstayed the same?
Do you believe that over thenext 12 months yourcompany's turnover willincrease, decrease or staythe same?
Business Performance - Turnover
Stay the Same
Increase
Decrease
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Over the past 3 months, hasyour company's workforceincreased, decreased orstayed the same?
Over the next 3 months, doyou expect your workforceto increase, decrease, orstay the same?
Business Performance - Workforce
Stay the Same
Increase
Decrease
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Over the past 3 months,has your cash flowimproved, worsened, orstayed the same?
Stay the Same
Increase
Decrease
Business Performance - Cashflow
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Local Labour Market Indicators
Indicator No. % England (%)
Working age people 627,000
Working age people in employment 447,000 71 70
Employees 385,700 87 87
Self employed 59,800 13 13
Not in employment 180,000 29 30
Economically inactive 143,100 23 23
Economically inactive who want a job 35,800 25 24
Economically inactive who do not want a job 107,400 75 76
Source: Annual Population Survey
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Skills Levels
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011
Greater LincolnshireEngland
Source: Annual Population Survey
%
% of the working age population with NVQ level 3+
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Population data
Source: Office for National Statistics
- Population has increased from approximately 960,000 to 1,040,000
- Population has grown by 9% over the last decade compared to 8% nationally
0-19 (%) 20-64 (%) 65+ (%)
Area 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011
England 25 24 59 60 16 16 Lincolnshire LEP 24 23 57 58 18 20
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
England Greater Lincolnshire
Source: Office of National Statistics
Active Enterprises per 10,000 population
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Wage Levels
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
£22,272
£23,765
£25,549
£26,601
£20,000
£21,000
£22,000
£23,000
£24,000
£25,000
£26,000
£27,000
2008 2011
Greater Lincolnshire
England
£3,277
£2,836
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Economic Value
Source: Office for National Statistics
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
GVA per head
Source: Office for National Statistics
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
What we said back in March 2012
• A lagging economy when based on GVA per head, but positive signs in the last 4/5 years
• Other measures put the Greater Lincolnshire economy on a more positive footing
• Wage and qualification levels improving
• Emerging industries (e.g. environmental technologies, renewables)
• Ageing population presents opportunities
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
What about now and in to the future?
- Back into recession (double dip)
- Economic uncertainty
- Conference season
- Cashflow / lending problems persist
- Longer term forecast is one of growth
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Real UK GDP 2005=100
Source: Office for National Statistics
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Looking Ahead
Actual data
Forecast
Source: Office for National Statistics, Office for Budget Responsibility
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Where is this growth going to come from?
Looking to the future, the Greater Lincolnshire LEP prospectus highlights a number of growth or most important sectors for the Greater Lincolnshire economy:
-Agri-food-Manufacturing / Engineering -Visitor Economy-Care-Ports & Logistics-Renewables
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Agri-Food Key Facts & Stats
- Distinctive feature of the Greater Lincolnshire area
- Strategically important both locally, nationally and internationally
- Covers primary production, food processing, wholesale, and retail (plus activities around agricultural engineering and packaging)
- Employs approximately 78,000 people
- 18% of total employment compared to 10% nationally
- Generates approximately 11% of total economic value
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Agri-Food
Actual data Forecast
Source: Office for National Statistics, Defra Agricultural Survey, emda Experian Forecasting Model
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Engineering Key Facts & Stats
- Has a number of strong growth sectors
- Employs approximately 14,500 people
- 3% of total employment in line with national average
- Generates approximately 4% of total economic value
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
Engineering
Actual data Forecast
Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Visitor Economy- Distinctive feature of the Greater
Lincolnshire area
- Employs approximately 39,400 people
- 9% of total employment compared to 10% nationally
- Generates approximately 4% of total economic value
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Visitor Economy
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
39,000
40,000
41,000
42,000
Actual data Forecast
Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Care
- Covers hospital, medical and dental practice, and social work activities
- Employs approximately 59,600 people
- 14% of total employment compared to 12% nationally
- Generates approximately 9% of total economic value
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Care
Actual data Forecast
Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Ports & Logistics- Distinctive feature of the Greater
Lincolnshire area
- Employs approximately 17,300 people
- 4% of total employment compared to 2% nationally
- Generates approximately 4% of total economic value
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Ports & Logistics
Actual data Forecast
Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
Renewables- Emerging industry and difficult to measure
- Data suggests substantial growth
- Approx 150 companies engaged in renewable energy and environmental activities across the area.
- Activities range from installers of solar PV panels, to plastics recycling and manufacturers of electric car batteries.
- The LRO is lobbying for a government definition of the sector
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Local Performance and Prospects for Growth
In Summary
• In the short term the national and local economies face continued uncertainty and a number of challenges to growth
• Longer term prospects are better, and locally certain sectors present real potential
• Longer term challenges remain, particularly around skills and our traditional industries