lng and dominant role of korean shipyards j… · dsme, 26% shi, 22% hhi, 16% other korean yards,...
TRANSCRIPT
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LNG AND DOMINANT ROLE OF KOREAN SHIPYARDS
J H C H U N GA F F I N I T Y KO R E A
6 T H N O V E M B E R 2 0 1 9
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DISCLAIMER
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LNG CARRIERS LARGER THAN 100,000M3
Non-Korean
Yards, 32%
DSME, 26%
SHI, 22%
HHI, 16%
Other Korean
Yards, 3%
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# of Ships % of Global Fleet
Global Fleet 511
Korean Built 344 67.3%
DSME 134 26.2%
Samsung 114 22.3%
Hyundai 84 16.4%
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FLNG/FSRU/FSU LARGER THAN 100,000M3 - 2014 YTD
DSME, 23%
SHI, 41%
HHI, 36%
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# of Ships % of Global Fleet
Global Fleet 22
Korean Built 22 100%
DSME 5 22.7%
Samsung 9 40.9%
Hyundai 8 36.4%
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ORDER BOOK FOR LNGC/FSRU/FLNG/BV
Non-Korean
Yards, 26%
DSME, 21%SHI, 29%
HHI, 24%
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# of Ships % of Global Fleet
Global Fleet 144
Korean Built 106 73.6%
DSME 31 21.5%
Samsung 41 28.5%
Hyundai 34 23.6%
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CARGO CONTAINMENT SYSTEM
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Existing On Order Total
Moss 100 - 100
No. 96 203 40 243
Mk III 201 73 274
MOSS Type LNGc Membrane Type LNGc
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NOTABLE DEVELOPMENT BY KOREAN SHIPBUILDERS
• All 50 Qatar Max and Flex ships have been built by Major Korean Shipbuilders.
• All the 15 Arctic 7 ships have been built by DSME.
• All the FSRUs and FLNGs have been built or are under construction by KoreanShipbuilders.
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Technology Leaders in
135,000 m3 165,000 m3 Q-Flex (210,000 m3)
and Q-Max (260,000 m3)
Steam Turbine DFDE 2-Stroke Engine (ME-GI and X-DF)
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NOTABLE DEVELOPMENTS BY KOREAN SHIPBUILDERS
• No further Significant technical disruption is expected
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~2004 2004 - 2012 2014~
Cargo Capacity (m3) 138K 150K – 160K 174K – 180K
Propulsion System Steam Turbine DFDE X-DF / ME-GI
• Trend of Technical Development
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GOING FORWARD
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LNGc
Korean Shipbuilders will continue to play a major role in the future.(70 Qatari projects, 15 Mozambique, 15 Arctic II LNG ships, etc)
LNG as Fuel
LNG Fueled Container Ships, VLCCs and Valesmax(100 tons/day consumption or above)
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GOING FORWARD
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FLNG
Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI)Shell Prelude FLNG, Petronas II, Coral FLNG
Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME)Petronas I FLNG
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VESSEL DEMAND-SUPPLY BALANCE OUTLOOK
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(100)
(50)
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50
100
150
200
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Mill
ion
Mt
Vessel Demand Vessel Supply Shipping Balance
• Vessel supply tightness driven by new and ramped up export capacities is expected toease in 2021, when vessels currently on order and uncommitted start to hit the water
• The subdued order market moving into 2020 and beyond would then see thefundamentals tighten again in 2023, as further capacity expansions go unmatched by thecorresponding expansion in vessel volumes.
4 2 56 7
4 7 8
6 4 120
140
160
180
200
220US$ m # Vessels (orderbook uncommitted) # Vessels (orderbook committed) # Vessels (delivered) NB Price
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023N
ewbu
ild P
rice
& D
eliv
erie
sSh
ippi
ng B
alan
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Basis the current number and schedule of projects under construction, the likelihood of a substantial supply tightening between 2023 and 2024 is increasing• LNG Canada, Golden Pass, Sabine Pass T6, Mozambique LNG and Calcasieu LNG and Arctic LNG 2 will supply an additional ~ 77 mpta starting from 2023/2024
(FID since Oct ’18)• Qatar revised its expansion project in 2018 and it will now reach a nameplate capacity of ~110 mtpa by 2023/2024
LNG PROJECTS LANDSCAPE AFTER 2022
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Source: Affinity, latest industry source and best estimates, 95% utilization. Indicative purpose only
Start-Up Project Expected Offtake Market MtpaDedicated Project
VesselsExpected Vessel
Req. Vessel Deficit (E)
2023-
2024
LNG Canada (FID taken in Q4 18) Asia/Equity Portfolio 14.0 2 13 (11)Sabine Pass LNG T6 (FID taken in Q2 19) Asia/Europe/Portfolio 4.8 8 (8)Woodfibre LNG (No FID) Asia/Portfolio 2.1 2 (2)Cameron T4-T5 (No FID) Europe/Portfolio 9.0 12 (12)Qatar Expansion (I) (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 16.9 18 (18)Arctic LNG 2 (FID taken in Q3 19) Unsold/Asia/Portfolio 19.8 24 (24)Energía Costa Azul (No FID) Asia 2.5 2 (2)Calcasieu Pass (FID taken in Q3-19) Europe/Portfolio 10.0 13 (13)Mozambique LNG (FID taken in Q2 19) Asia/Portfolio 12.8 14 (14)Magnolia T1-T2 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 4.4 7 (7)Delfin LNG T1-T2 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 6.5 11 (11)Djibouti (No FID) Asia 3.0 4 (4)Golden Pass (FID taken in Q1 19) Unsold/Equity Portfolio 15.6 27 (27)Port Arthur LNG (No FID) Unsold/Europe 13.5 15 (15)Lake Charles T1 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 5.0 9 (9)Gulf LNG (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 5.8 10 (10)Rio Grande LNG T1-T2 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 9.0 15 (15)Plaqueminas (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 10.0 17 (17)Driftwood (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 11.0 19 (19)Goldboro LNG (No FID) Europe 10.0 11 (11)Greater Tortue FLNG (II) (No FID) Portfolio 2.5 3 (3)Qatar Expansion (II) (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 16.9 17 (17)Magnolia T3-T4 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 4.4 7 (7)Texas LNG (I) (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 2.0 3 (3)Nigeria LNG T7 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 8.0 9 (9)Freeport T4 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 5.0 9 (9)Rovuma LNG (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 15.2 16 (16)Delfin LNG T3-T4 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 6.5 11 (11)Papua LNG (No FID) Asia 5.4 5 (5)
Total (incl non-FID) 252 331 (329)Total (exlc. Non-FID) 77 2 99 (97)
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AFFINITY GLOBAL OFFICES
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