lng and dominant role of korean shipyards j… · dsme, 26% shi, 22% hhi, 16% other korean yards,...

13
LNG AND DOMINANT ROLE OF KOREAN SHIPYARDS JH CHUNG AFFINITY KOREA 6 TH NOVEMBER 2019

Upload: others

Post on 19-Oct-2020

4 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • LNG AND DOMINANT ROLE OF KOREAN SHIPYARDS

    J H C H U N GA F F I N I T Y KO R E A

    6 T H N O V E M B E R 2 0 1 9

  • The information contained within this report is given in good faith based onthe current market situation at the time of preparing this report and as such isspecific to that point only. While all reasonable care has been taken in thepreparation and collation of information in this report Affinity (Shipping) LLP(and all associated and affiliated companies) does not accept any liabilitywhatsoever for any errors of fact or opinion based on such facts.

    Some industry information relating to the shipping industry can be difficult tofind or establish. Some data may not be available and may need to beestimated or assessed and where such data may be limited or unavailablesubjective assessment may have to be used.

    No market analysis can guarantee accuracy. The usual fundamentals may notalways govern the markets, for example psychology, market cycles andexternal events (such as acts of god or developments in future technologies)could cause markets to depart from their natural/usual course. Such externalevents have not been considered as part of this analysis. Historical marketbehaviour does not predict future market behaviour and shipping is aninherently high risk business. You should therefore consider a variety ofinformation and potential outcomes when making decisions based on theinformation contained in this report.

    DISCLAIMER

    2

    All information provided by Affinity (Shipping) LLP is without anyguarantee whatsoever. Affinity (Shipping) LLP or any of its subsidiariesor affiliates will not be liable for any consequences thereof.

    This report is intended solely for the information of the email recipientaccount and must not be passed or divulged to any third partieswhatsoever without the written permission of Affinity (Shipping) LLP.Affinity (Shipping) LLP accepts no liability to any third partieswhatsoever. If permission is granted, you must disclose the full reportincluding all disclaimers, and not selected excerpts which may betaken out of context.

  • LNG CARRIERS LARGER THAN 100,000M3

    Non-Korean

    Yards, 32%

    DSME, 26%

    SHI, 22%

    HHI, 16%

    Other Korean

    Yards, 3%

    3

    # of Ships % of Global Fleet

    Global Fleet 511

    Korean Built 344 67.3%

    DSME 134 26.2%

    Samsung 114 22.3%

    Hyundai 84 16.4%

  • FLNG/FSRU/FSU LARGER THAN 100,000M3 - 2014 YTD

    DSME, 23%

    SHI, 41%

    HHI, 36%

    4

    # of Ships % of Global Fleet

    Global Fleet 22

    Korean Built 22 100%

    DSME 5 22.7%

    Samsung 9 40.9%

    Hyundai 8 36.4%

  • ORDER BOOK FOR LNGC/FSRU/FLNG/BV

    Non-Korean

    Yards, 26%

    DSME, 21%SHI, 29%

    HHI, 24%

    5

    # of Ships % of Global Fleet

    Global Fleet 144

    Korean Built 106 73.6%

    DSME 31 21.5%

    Samsung 41 28.5%

    Hyundai 34 23.6%

  • CARGO CONTAINMENT SYSTEM

    6

    Existing On Order Total

    Moss 100 - 100

    No. 96 203 40 243

    Mk III 201 73 274

    MOSS Type LNGc Membrane Type LNGc

  • NOTABLE DEVELOPMENT BY KOREAN SHIPBUILDERS

    • All 50 Qatar Max and Flex ships have been built by Major Korean Shipbuilders.

    • All the 15 Arctic 7 ships have been built by DSME.

    • All the FSRUs and FLNGs have been built or are under construction by KoreanShipbuilders.

    7

    Technology Leaders in

    135,000 m3 165,000 m3 Q-Flex (210,000 m3)

    and Q-Max (260,000 m3)

    Steam Turbine DFDE 2-Stroke Engine (ME-GI and X-DF)

  • NOTABLE DEVELOPMENTS BY KOREAN SHIPBUILDERS

    • No further Significant technical disruption is expected

    8

    ~2004 2004 - 2012 2014~

    Cargo Capacity (m3) 138K 150K – 160K 174K – 180K

    Propulsion System Steam Turbine DFDE X-DF / ME-GI

    • Trend of Technical Development

  • GOING FORWARD

    9

    LNGc

    Korean Shipbuilders will continue to play a major role in the future.(70 Qatari projects, 15 Mozambique, 15 Arctic II LNG ships, etc)

    LNG as Fuel

    LNG Fueled Container Ships, VLCCs and Valesmax(100 tons/day consumption or above)

  • GOING FORWARD

    10

    FLNG

    Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI)Shell Prelude FLNG, Petronas II, Coral FLNG

    Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME)Petronas I FLNG

  • VESSEL DEMAND-SUPPLY BALANCE OUTLOOK

    11

    (100)

    (50)

    -

    50

    100

    150

    200

    Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

    2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

    Mill

    ion

    Mt

    Vessel Demand Vessel Supply Shipping Balance

    • Vessel supply tightness driven by new and ramped up export capacities is expected toease in 2021, when vessels currently on order and uncommitted start to hit the water

    • The subdued order market moving into 2020 and beyond would then see thefundamentals tighten again in 2023, as further capacity expansions go unmatched by thecorresponding expansion in vessel volumes.

    4 2 56 7

    4 7 8

    6 4 120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    220US$ m # Vessels (orderbook uncommitted) # Vessels (orderbook committed) # Vessels (delivered) NB Price

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023N

    ewbu

    ild P

    rice

    & D

    eliv

    erie

    sSh

    ippi

    ng B

    alan

    ce

  • Basis the current number and schedule of projects under construction, the likelihood of a substantial supply tightening between 2023 and 2024 is increasing• LNG Canada, Golden Pass, Sabine Pass T6, Mozambique LNG and Calcasieu LNG and Arctic LNG 2 will supply an additional ~ 77 mpta starting from 2023/2024

    (FID since Oct ’18)• Qatar revised its expansion project in 2018 and it will now reach a nameplate capacity of ~110 mtpa by 2023/2024

    LNG PROJECTS LANDSCAPE AFTER 2022

    12

    Source: Affinity, latest industry source and best estimates, 95% utilization. Indicative purpose only

    Start-Up Project Expected Offtake Market MtpaDedicated Project

    VesselsExpected Vessel

    Req. Vessel Deficit (E)

    2023-

    2024

    LNG Canada (FID taken in Q4 18) Asia/Equity Portfolio 14.0 2 13 (11)Sabine Pass LNG T6 (FID taken in Q2 19) Asia/Europe/Portfolio 4.8 8 (8)Woodfibre LNG (No FID) Asia/Portfolio 2.1 2 (2)Cameron T4-T5 (No FID) Europe/Portfolio 9.0 12 (12)Qatar Expansion (I) (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 16.9 18 (18)Arctic LNG 2 (FID taken in Q3 19) Unsold/Asia/Portfolio 19.8 24 (24)Energía Costa Azul (No FID) Asia 2.5 2 (2)Calcasieu Pass (FID taken in Q3-19) Europe/Portfolio 10.0 13 (13)Mozambique LNG (FID taken in Q2 19) Asia/Portfolio 12.8 14 (14)Magnolia T1-T2 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 4.4 7 (7)Delfin LNG T1-T2 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 6.5 11 (11)Djibouti (No FID) Asia 3.0 4 (4)Golden Pass (FID taken in Q1 19) Unsold/Equity Portfolio 15.6 27 (27)Port Arthur LNG (No FID) Unsold/Europe 13.5 15 (15)Lake Charles T1 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 5.0 9 (9)Gulf LNG (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 5.8 10 (10)Rio Grande LNG T1-T2 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 9.0 15 (15)Plaqueminas (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 10.0 17 (17)Driftwood (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 11.0 19 (19)Goldboro LNG (No FID) Europe 10.0 11 (11)Greater Tortue FLNG (II) (No FID) Portfolio 2.5 3 (3)Qatar Expansion (II) (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 16.9 17 (17)Magnolia T3-T4 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 4.4 7 (7)Texas LNG (I) (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 2.0 3 (3)Nigeria LNG T7 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 8.0 9 (9)Freeport T4 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 5.0 9 (9)Rovuma LNG (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 15.2 16 (16)Delfin LNG T3-T4 (No FID) Unsold/Portfolio 6.5 11 (11)Papua LNG (No FID) Asia 5.4 5 (5)

    Total (incl non-FID) 252 331 (329)Total (exlc. Non-FID) 77 2 99 (97)

  • AFFINITY GLOBAL OFFICES

    13

    H

    SYM

    P

    Dry Cargo

    Tankers LNG

    Sale & Purchase

    Newbuilding

    Research

    Sale & Purchase Newbuilding Dry Cargo

    Sale & Purchase

    Dry Cargo

    Tankers

    SI

    Tankers

    LNG

    Finance Valuations

    Tankers

    LB

    SE

    Dry Cargo

    Tankers

    HK

    O

    LNG

    LI

    Offshore

    Offshore

    L O N D O N S E O U L S I N G A P O R E

    S Y D N E Y , M E L B O U R N E & P E R T H

    H O U S T O N

    B E I J I N G S A N T I A G O & L I M A

    H O N G K O N GO S L O

    LNG