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Long-range forecasting within the activity of

North Eurasian Climate Center

Valentina Khan

Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)

Beijing, China, 8-10 April 2013

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General information about NEACC

The North EurAsia Climate Centre (NEACC) was established by Intergovernmental Council on Hydrometeorology of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Recently it has successfully completed the demonstration phase of its operations and is in the process to be formally designated as a WMO RCC in RAII.

NEACC is also nominated to be one of Long-Range Forecast nodes of the RA-VI Regional Climate Network

http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru (English)http://seakc.meteoinfo.ru (Russian)

Area of responsibility

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North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forums (NEACOF)

Fulfilling its international commitments, since 2011 NEACC has organized at regular regime sessions of NEACOF with the aim to develop consensus seasonal forecasts over territory of CIS countries.First session of NEACOF was held in Moscow in May 2011.

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North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forums (NEACOF)

Second session of NEACOF was organized in remote online mode, following the example of SEECOF. Forum section was created on the website of NEACC to post materials, comments and feedbacks related to the upcoming seasonal forecasts. Communication was also supported by e-mail exchanges.

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North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forums (NEACOF)

The third session of North Eurasia Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-3) was held on October 3, 2012 in Kazan, Russia, at Kazan University. It was organized as a parallel event during the meeting of Intergovernmental Council on Hydrology and Meteorology of CIS countries and Scientific Conference on Regional Problems of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. Specialists in the climate research area and climate services provision from 9 countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belorussia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Russia, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) took part in this event.

The current sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the global ocean from NCOF Global SST Monitoring Page

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Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near average across much of the Pacific Ocean.

Over the last couple months, the atmospheric circulation has been variable partially due to an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).

Most models predict ENSO-neutral (-0.5ºC to +0.5ºC) continuing through the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall 2013.

Source: the update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP 1April 2013

Original figure is from IRI

Outlook for upcoming season:Sea surface temperature

According to Rutgers University Global Snow Lab the NH snow cover extent (SCE) for December 2012 reached a record high (46.27 million sq. km), during January SCE increased to 48.64 million sq. km. This was the sixth-highest January SCE on the record, dating back to 1967. Snow cover during winter 2012-1013 was higher than average throughout much of the western United States as well as northern Europe and eastern China.

Outlook for upcoming season:Snow cover extent

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Average ice extent for March 2013 was the fifth lowest for the month on the satellite record. 

Between the 2012 summer minimum and the 2013 winter maximum, sea ice extent increased 11.72 million sq. km, the largest increase on the satellite record. 

Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center

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Outlook for upcoming season:Sea ice extent

 Arctic Oscillation was in strongly negative phase, with unusually high sea level pressure over almost all of the Arctic Ocean. 

Outlook for upcoming season:Large-scale circulation patterns

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Outlook for upcoming season:Long-term tendencies of T2m and precipitation

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Outlook for upcoming season:Forecasts from empirical model

T2m & Precipitation, June 2013

T2m & Precipitation, July 2013

T2m & Precipitation, August 2013

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T2m, June 2013

T2m, July 2013

Precipitation, June 2013

Precipitation, July 2013

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Outlook for upcoming season:Outputs of PLAV model

Outlook for upcoming season:Outputs of MGO model

Too short forecast period

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Outlook for upcoming season

Warmer than normal:Northern part of European territory of Russia, Siberia, Southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and the west of Mongolia.Colder than normal:South of Syberia , Chukotka, Kamchatka, South of the Russian Far East.

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Precipitation deficit:North of the Russia (except Yakutiya region), South of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, North of  Turkmenistan, Western part of MongoliaExcessive precipitation:Most  of the Western  Europe, most of  the European territory of Russia, Yakutiya region, Amur region, Transcaucasia, North of Kazakhstan, South Uzbekistan

Outlook for upcoming season

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Proposed ways to cooperate with BCC and TCC

Submission of joint research projects focused on climate research investigation and application of climate information within bilateral calls and other sources such as the National Natural Science Foundation of China, Japan Science Foundation, Russian Foundation for Basic Research as well as within regular calls

Exchange and share of knowledge and experience in different aspects of long-range forecasting technology and climate services provisioning

Possible organization of joint sessions of NEACOF and FOCRAII (e.g., once in 4 years)

Organization of joint training seminars

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Thank you for your attention!