Looking forward

Callum Foster, ONS

Quick summary/update on Beyond 2011/Census 2021

Beyond 2011 programme assessed a range of potential approaches

Boiled down to 2 main alternatives1. A traditional census (but mainly on-line)

2. A census based on admin data and large annual surveys

National Statistician recommended….

An online census of all households and communal establishments in 2021 - with support for those who are unable to complete the census online.

AND

Increased use of administrative data and surveys in order to enhance the statistics from the 2021 census and improve annual statistics between censuses.

Make the best use of all available data to provide the population statistics required

and offer a springboard to the greater use of administrative data and

annual surveys in the future.

Beyond 2011 Programme conclusions

Huge potential for use of administrative data

• But not there yet

Way forward agreed with Government• Online Census in 2021• With increased use of administrative / survey data

Government ambition that 2021 Census should be the last

• subject to evaluation of alternatives in 2021

Three key strands going forward

1. 2021 online Census operation• Research, development, implementation & operation of a 2021 online Census

• Maximise online response, minimise digital exclusion

2. Integrated population statistics outputs• Integration of census, admin & survey data

=> Production of more detailed and more frequent outputs

• Early benefit 2015 onwards: pop estimates and characteristics

3. Beyond 2021• Ongoing development of new methods using administrative data and surveys

• Evaluation against 2021 census outputs• Dependent on data access and data quality

a big caveat We are sharing very early thoughts and aspirations…

2021 Outputs

Key Statistics

Quick Statistics

Local Characteristics

DetailedCharacteristics

Analysis

Interactives

Commissioned Outputs

2011 Census outputs

Anonymised and cleansed unit

record database

Anonymised and cleansed unit

record database

2021 Census – Time for a change?2011 and earlier

2021?

Creation of lots and lots of outputs

Creation of lots and lots of outputs

Anonymised and cleansed unit

record database

Anonymised and cleansed unit

record database

Creation of a very large

cube

Creation of a very large

cubeCreate my ownCreate my own

Disclosure control magic

Pre-canned outputs

Potential upsides… downsides… and puzzles

Potential advantages Potential disadvantages Things we’d need to work out

• In theory, outputs could be made available quicker ? (as no need to ‘build’ or disclosure control check each table)

• Requires some form of post tabulation disclosure control (which could result in some minor inconsistencies, but should still be additive)

• Could it be one cube, or a small number of ‘Theme cubes’?

• What level of detail is possible in the cube(s)?

• Users have more flexibility on the outputs they can get from the 2021 Census

• How does the API fit in?

• Less need to ‘commission’ output (and availability of data at detail relevant to population in that area)

• Disclosure control magic

What happens next?

Topic consultationo probably Summer(ish) 2015

Start to think about outputs and dissemination principles

o Set up a small group to form a ‘vision’ and some dissemination design principles?

o Keeping it flexible – don’t rule anything out

o Prototyping and doing our thinking/playing in public

o Making sure ready before needed

o More formal output / dissemination consultation planned for later