macro environmental factors of turkey (2)

7/30/2019 Macro Environmental Factors of Turkey (2)

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MACRO ENVIROMENTAL FACTORS INTURKEY

Ceyda Kocaman

Meltem Kamçı

Yağmur Erdinç



Our Agenda...

Start

Economy

Demography Nature

Technology

Political End



ECONOMY



Turkish Economy

• Turkey is a centre of economic area between Europe, Sowiet Union and

Middle east.

• Turkish history deals with great crucial crises.

• Turkish economy tries to achive with macroeconomic policies and tools.



Macroeconomic Aims

Increases Production

High and Ever growing GDP

Decreases Unemployment

High and sustainable employment

Inflatıon Adjustment

Provide general level of price

Balance Of Payment

Balance of trade and currentaccount and exchange rate

Macroeconomic Instruments

Fiscal Policy Instruments

Goverment Expenditure and Tax

Monetary Policy Supply

Interest rate anda Money

Income PolicyInstrument

International Economy Policy

Tarrif, Quata ,Exchange Rate



Key Macro Economic Indicators

GDP ( Gross Domestic Product)

Two types of GDP

Nominal GDP : GDP evaluated at current market prices. Therefore,nominal GDP will include all of the changes in market prices that haveoccurred during the current year due to inflation or deflation.

Reel GDP : GDP evaluated at the market prices of some base year. Forexample, if 1990 were chosen as the base year, then real GDP for 1995 iscalculated by taking the quantities of all goods and services purchased in1995 and multiplying them by their 1990 prices.

GDP = C + I + G + X - M

According to this relationship ;



• Two major crises since 1994, and the 2001

•After 2001, Turkey’s structral reform

• The global cris started to in 2008 and a sharply decrease in GDP from 4,7 to

0,7. Not only change in Turkey but also OECD.

• GDP growth decreases from 2008 to 2009 in Turkey and OECD

• Crisis did not affect as much as OECD.



Trade Balance

• The difference between country’s import and export.

• Positive relationship between balance of trade and GDP.

•

Turkey’s export has increased tremendously over the past decade but it is notenough because also increas import rates.

• In 2009, export and import decreases because of global crisis.



• Turkey’s export rate change under the OECD export changes

• Effect of global crisis on investment in Tukey and OECD.

• Investment increases with policies. For example, When the

Government decreases interest rate , investment ıncreases.



Fiscal Policy How effect rate of GDP?

When goverment want to increase production level because of high and

ever-growing GDP , goverment decrease taxes or increase govermentexpenditure.

FDI ( Foreign Direct Investment )

•

The investment is direct because the investor, which could be aforeign person, company or group of entities, is seeking to control,

manage, or have significant influence over the foreign enterprise.

• Important positive effects on a host country’s development effort.

• Bring certain benefits to national economies.

• Help stimulate employment, raise wages and replace declining

market sectors.



• FDI decreases from 2008 to 2009. FDI ıncreases from 2009 to 2010 in

Turkey but not increase in OECD and EU



Unemployment Rate , Inflation and Exchange Rate

Unemployment is problem developed and developing countries.

Positive relationship economic growth and decreasing unemployment rate



Inflation Rate

• Inflation may affect to employment.

• First measured by original Phillips Curve.

•Phillips found a consistent inverse relationship: when unemployment washigh, wages increased slowly; when unemployment was low, wages roserapidly.

• Macroeconomic models with sticky prices, positive relation between the rateof inflation and the level of demand, and a negative relation between the rateof inflation and the rate of unemployment.



Inflation rate increases from 2009 to 2011 in Turkey also

employment rate increases from 2009 to 2010. In OECD, not

only inflation rate increases but also unemployment because

of global crisis.



Exchange Rate and Employment

• A relatively depreciated currency encourages exports and expenditure

• Import competing firms faced by an appreciation of the home currency

face to lose their price competitiveness.

Turkey is more competitive than Euro Area because of depreciated

currency.



Turkey’s economic sitiuation in 2010 according to OECD

• 16th largest economy in the world and 6th largest economycompared with EU countries in 2010 (GDP at PPP, IMF-WEO).

• Robust economic growth over the last seven years with anaverage annual real GDP growth of 4 percent.

• GDP reached USD 736 billion in 2010, up from USD 231 billionin 2002.

• Sound economic policies with tight fiscal discipline.

• Strong financial structure resilient to the global financial crisis.

•Rapid recovery from the global financial crisis.



DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS



Employment Rate of Women



Employment rate of women % of female population (15-64)

Years Turkey OECD2003 25 55

2004 22 55

2005 22 56

2006 23 57

2007 23 57

2008 24 58

2009 24 57

2010 26 57

Increasing thepercentage of employment rate of women between2003-2010 years.

In OECD countries,womenemployment rateup to %50 andincreasing day by

day.

Some factors of Turkey’sacceleration;

•Education level of women

•Cultural changing•Modernization-giving uptraditional attitudes



Why do women in Turkey work inactively?

• Not flexible working hours

• Not eligible encouragement of

• women working

• Not being at enough education level

• Having a traditional mentality, such as “woman-mother” contrast“business-woman”

• The roles ascribed to women in society

• Low level of supporting programs of women working



Some other reasons...

• The participation rate of women of working inurban areas ( 19.8 %)

• In rural areas ( 32.6% ).

• In rural areas, women’s working illegally.

• Migration and growing agricultural sectorshrinking.



Impact of education level at women working in Turkey

Women Working Rate inTurkey

illiterate people in the

labor force participation

rate

16.9%

Not graduated from high

school rate

21.8%

Graduated from high

school rate

30.4%

Educated from university

rate

69.7%

•The possibility of women working-

education level.

•Increasing possibility of entering this

market skills gained in the proportion

of women in the labor market demand



Good Examples in OECD Countries

• Provide equal career opportunities for women and men

• Busy men previously worked as a professional and easy to enter or be taken to ensurewomen in business areas

• Improved child care and elder care facilities to ensure women's entry into the jobmarket more easily

• Especially in women after natal face with less problems about returning their jobsagain.

• Female labor force participation and labor market along with the integration of women

entrepreneurs



Importance of women working...

The effectiveness and enhancing the quality of women's labor force,

Equipped with the knowledge and skillsappropriate to the needs of the labor market

Adaptation of the labor market are importantcompetitiveness of the economy, productionof quality goods and services.



WORKING HOURS



Average annual working time Hours per worker

Turkey OECD

2003 1943 1785

2004 1918 1783

2005 1936 1782

2006 1944 17792007 1911 1773

2008 1900 1767

2009 1881 1741

2010 1877 1749

•

The operating time of 45 hours higherthan when compared with OECD

countries.

•Rigidity of the labor market.

•Companies not tending to work new

employees. Trying to save thetendency to run longer hours than the

current workers.

•Taking the average working time in

Turkey to the world average, a

significant reduction in unemployment

•Less working hours, then more

motivated workers, and more

efficiency.



CRIME RATE



Prison population rate Number per 100 000 inhabitants

Turkey OECD

1992 54 100

1995 82 111

1998 102 119

2001 89 124

2004 100 133

2009 155 140



Reasons of crime

• Income level

• Unemployment rate

• The rate of immigration, educationlevel

• Population density

• demographic factors such as birth rate, important factorsthat determine the rate of urbanization is a crimehas occurred.



MARRIAGE RATE



Proportion of respondents aged 15 and over by relationship status, 2010,

percentages

Turkey OECD

Married 66 55

Domestic partner 0 7

Single / Never been married 29 26

Widowed 3 6Divorced 1 4

Separated 1 1

•

The most common form of partnership across the OECD and also

in Turkey

Some reasons of why people generally

prefer marriage in Turkey;

CultureNeighborhood pressure

Ethical Rules

Legal Assurance

Having children



Population Levels



Population levels Thousands

•

Between 2008-2011, increasingpopulation level

•Some reasons of increasing of

population;

•Migration

Employment opportunities

Education opportunities etc.

•Birth rate

•Death rate

•Living conditions



The most crowded cities...

• Istanbul (about 12.6 million),

•

Ankara (about 4.5 million)• Izmir (about 3.6 million).



Birth Rate in Turkey, % 51 boys, %49 girls



In Turkey, 2010, average age of mothers, 27.2



In-migration, out-migration,by statistical region



Life Satisfaction Survey



Life Satisfaction Survey of Turkey

• Individuals in 2009, 54.3% of self-happy,

14.6% percent as the unhappy expression.

• In 2010, 61.2% of self-happy and 10.7%

percent as the unhappy expression.



Happiness Levels in years



Reasons of happiness...

• Being healthy ( 71.2%)

• Having a good family ( 70.9%)

• Being hopeful for future (72.8%) (women rate

72.9%, men rate 72.7%)

• Because of economical changes, in 2009

consuming cheap goods rate 60%, but in 2010

rate 54.2%.



Some different types of results...

• Rate of women 62.7% in 2010 happy

• While the rate of men 59.6% happy.

•

Level of education-level of satisfactionprimary school education in 2010, rate of

60.5% while happiness, college or university

graduates, rate of 67.7%.

•Married in 2010, 63.7% of the individuals

happy, while the unmarried rate of 53.5%

happy.



POLITICAL FACTORS

f



General informations about political

systems of Turkey

• Election of the president by the TBMM for a

term of 7 years, while the members of the

Parliament are elected for a 5-year period

• The Republic of Turkey has a tripartite legal

system.

• Civilian and military jurisdiction is separated.

l f b l l



General informations about political

systems of Turkey

• The main executive body is the Council of

Ministers, consisting of a Prime Minister and

twenty five ministers.

• Independent Courts have the judicial power.

• Turkey is a secular state.

•

The freedom of worship for all religions isprotected under the Constitutional Law.

Current political administration and



Current political administration and

government structure

• The current President of the Republic of Turkey is Mr. Abdullah Gul who was elected inAugust 2007.

•The current Prime Minister is Mr. Recep TayyipErdogan who was re-appointed after thegeneral elections held in June 2010.

• He is the head of the Justice and DevelopmentParty (“AKP”) which has won nearly half of theParliamentary majority in June 2010 elections.

C i i T k ’ P li i l



Current topics in Turkey’s Political

Environment

• Prohibition of smoking in closed areas

• Prohibition of sitting outside inpublic open

areas, such as Asmali Mescid

• Prohibition of consumption of fizzy can

beverages in schools.



NATURE

UNAVOIDEBLE



UNAVOIDEBLE

SUBJECT:SUSTAINABILTY

• Limited Sources

• Increased Population

• Heavy consumption and industrialization



SUSTAINABILITY and GOING GREEN

• For consumers: Hybrid cars, compact

fluorescent bulbs, composting, reusable

shopping bags

• For businesses : eco-friendly strategies both to

lower costs and to benefit the environment



Contribution of renewables to energy supply* As a percentage of total primary energy supply



WHY TURKEY’S PERCANTEGE IS HIGH?

RECYCLING PROJECTS AND



RECYCLING PROJECTS AND

MUNICIPALITIES

• An associated project:Istanbul and Stockholm (Sweden)

Enviroment Congress in Stockholm

A week-long training

17 from Istanbul: Avcılar, Zeytinburnu, Kadıköy

• All over Turkey: Tarsus, Konyaaltı, Mamak..

Road infrastructure gross investment spending



g p g

*Current prices and exchange rates - million Euros

92-00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Turkey 45 50 48 86 125 169 331 270 338

OECD 970 1,229 1,300 1,386 1,260 1,264 1,255 1,342 1,595

Rail infrastructure gross investment spending*Current prices and exchange rates - million Euros

92-00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Turkey 1,823 147 166 145 160 381 503 124 125

OECD 350 627 608 558 274 307 248 266 270

Airports infrastructure gross investment spending*Current prices and exchange rates - million Euros



AIREMISSIONS OF PARTICULATES

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Mobile 10% 11% 11% 11% 12%

Road53% 54% 56% 57% 59%

Other 47% 46% 44% 43% 41%

Stationary 90% 89% 89% 89% 88%

Power st.12% 13% 14% 15% 16%

Combustion

61% 60% 58% 57% 55%

Ind Comb20% 20% 20% 19% 19%

Other Comb41% 40% 39% 37% 36%

Ind. proc.22% 23% 23% 23% 23%

Divers4% 5% 5% 5% 5%

Total100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

EMISSIONS OF CO

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Mobile51% 50% 49% 48% 46%

Road 99% 99% 99% 99% 98%

Other 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%

Stationary49% 50% 51% 52% 54%

Power st. 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Combustion 77% 77% 76% 76% 75%

Industrial3% 3% 3% 4% 4%

Other 74% 74% 73% 73% 71%

Ind. proc. 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Divers 22% 21% 22% 22% 24%

Total100% 100% 100% 100% 100%



TECHNOLOGY



E- Government

• Turkey December, 2008

• First and best user: Singapore,1997 (Role Model for other countries)

• First steps from Singapore 1981



Comparison

E-goverment

• Active Citizen

• E- communication

• Auto Voice-mail

• Auto data updates

• Private service

Classical Goverment

• Passive Citizen

• Paper-based

communication• More labor force

• Standart service



A new subject for Turkey: E-Bills

• Completed Infrastructure Projects

• State agencies and privately helds

Ex: Ministry of finance, Turkcell

• Turk Telekom’ s paper saving: 4200 tones per

year

Gross domestic expenditure on R&D



Gross domestic expenditure on R&D

* As a percentage of GDP

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

2008 or latest available year 1999 or first available year

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Turkey 0.48 0.52 0.59 0.58 0.72 0.73 0.85

OECD 2.21 2.18 2.21 2.24 2.28 2.34 2.41



Brain Drain

• Migration of the highly skilled from poor to

rich countries

• In parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Central

America, more than %50 university

graduates OECD countries

• Threatens development

Brain Drain



Brain Drain* Share of a country's nationals with a university degree

living in an(other) OECD country



SOCIAL MEDIA

• World: More than 800 million active users

• Turkey: 30,5 million

#5 in the ranking

macro environmental factors of turkey (2)

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