major trends in the world coffee market · international coffee organization - spain 8.9% poland...

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Major Trends in theWorld Coffee Market

2nd Moscow International Coffee ForumMoscow, Russia

8 F b 2010

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

8 February 2010

Néstor Osorio

Executive Director

ICO composite indicator price Monthly: January 2000 to January 2010

130

140

150

70

80

90

100

110

120

US

cent

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r po

und


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40

50

60

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ICO group indicator pricesDaily: 1 October 2008 to 29 January 2010

210

220

230

240

100

110

120

130

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Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas

World ProductionCrop years 2000 to 2009

113.4

122.6

115.9

111 2

129.1

118.9

128.1123.0-125.0

120

140

107.9104.7

111.2

60

80

100

mil

lion

bag

s


0

20

40

2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09* 2009/10*

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Total production in 2008/09

Africa11% Asia&Oceania

13%Colombia

7%

Vietnam14%

7%


Central America + Mexico

14%South America4%

Brazil37%

Production by type of coffee Crop year 2008/09

Robusta49.539%


Arabica78.661%

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Production: 10 leading producers 2008/09 (Volume in 000 bags - % of world production)

Brazil 45 992 36.8

Vietnam 18 500 14.4

Indonesia 9 350 7.5

Colombia 8 664 6.9

Mexico 4 650 3.7

India 4 372 3.5

Ethiopia 4 350 3 5


Ethiopia 4 350 3.5

Peru 3 872 3.1

Guatemala 3 785 3.0

Uganda 3 200 2.6

Total exports to all destinationsCalendar years 2000 to 2009

89.6 90.988.8

91.1

87 6

92.3

96.6 97.794.7

90

100

110

88.886.4 87.6

40

50

60

70

80

90

mil

lion

bag

s


0

10

20

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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Value of coffee exportsCalendar years 2000 to 2009*

15.316

18

8.2

5 4 5.6

6.9

9.3

10.8

12.8

13.6

6

8

10

12

14

billi

on U

S do

llars


5.4 5.2

0

2

4

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*

World consumption Calendar years 2000 to 2009

112 8

118.5 119.0122.6

127.1130.0 132.0

120

140

104.7109.0 110.5

112.8

60

80

100

mill

ion

bags


0

20

40

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009*

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Estimated consumption in 2008: 10 leading markets by volume

(in million 60-kg bags)

USA 21.7

Brazil 17.9

Germany 9.6

Japan 7.1

Italy 5.9

France 5.1


Russian Federation 3.7

Spain 3.5

Indonesia 3.3

United Kingdom 3.1

Consumption per capita: top 10 leading markets by volume

(in kg (green equivalent) per year)

Finland 12.6

Switzerland 9.1

Norway 9.0

Sweden 8.3

Iceland 8.3

Denmark 7.7


Germany 7.0

Estonia 6.9

Austria 6.5

Bosnia & Herzegovina 6.2

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World consumption in 2008(in million 60-kg bags)

Africa6.95% Asia&Oceania

20.115%15%

Central America + Mexico

4.84%

Europe50.139%


North America25.820%

South America22.217%

World coffee consumption Evolution 2000 – 2008

(in thousand 60-kg bags)

A l2000 2008*

Annual growth (%)

Traditional markets 63 377 68 584 0.88

Producing countries 25 604 35 855 3.81


Emerging markets 15 744 25 565 5.53

WORLD TOTAL 104 725 130 004 2.43

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World Coffee Consumption: Traditional markets Evolution 2000 – 2008


A l2000 2008*

Annual growth

Total 63 377 68 584 0.88European Community 38 005 39 867 0.53

Germany 8 770 9 554 0.96Italy 5 149 5 937 1.60France 5 402 5 154 -0.52


Spain 2 991 3 485 1.71United Kingdom 2 342 3 067 3.04

USA 18 746 21 652 1.61Japan 6 626 7 065 0.72

World coffee consumption: Producing countries Evolution 2000 – 2008


2000 2008*

Annual growth

(%)Total 25 604 35 855 3.81Brazil 13 075 17 526 3.31Indonesia 1 664 3 333 8.03Mexico 1 189 2 200 7.08


Ethiopia 1 642 1 833 1.23India 938 1 518 5.50Others 7 098 9 444 3.22

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World coffee consumption: Emerging markets Evolution 2000 – 2008


Annual growth

(%)

Emerging markets 15 744 25 565 5.53

Russian Federation 1 863 3 716 7.97

Algeria 1 779 2 118 1.96

Ukraine 179 1 733 28.71

K R bli f 1 246 1 665 3 28

2000 2008*


Korea, Republic of 1 246 1 665 3.28

Australia 832 1 145 3.61

China* 859 940 1.01

Others 8 986 14 248 5.26

Consumption in the Russian FederationCalendar years 2000 to 2008

3 6

4.1

3.74.0

4.5

1.9

3.0

3.43.6

3.13.2 3.3

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

mill

ion

bags


0.0

0.5

1.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

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Main origins of the coffee imported by the Russian Federation in 2008

Brazil20.3%

Others20.3%

India14.0%

Spain3.4%

Indonesia3.3%


Germany10.5%

Vietnam9.9%

Colombia5.5%

Ecuador5.0%

Switzerland3.9%

Poland3.8%

Consumption in UkraineCalendar years 2000 to 2008

1.731.8

2.0

0.65

0.74

1.020.97

1.06

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

mill

ion

bags


0.180.23

0.44

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

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Main origins of the coffee imported by Ukraine in 2008

Germany28.7%Singapore

3.5%

Ecuador2.7%

Austria1.9%

Others8.6%

Poland6.7%

Colombia4.1%

Russian Federation3.8%


Brazil21.9%

India9.3%

France8.8%

Consumption in Estonia, Latvia and LithuaniaCalendar years 2000 to 2008

500

600

480 8 482 3

561.2

161.8 149.8 145.0158.6

155.0144.2

180.8

130 9

115.1

173.2204.3 208.3 173.1

197.3 193.4

213.4

230.1203.8

200

300

400

000

bags

432.4

461.0 464.1446.0

480.8 482.3462.1

472.8


97.3 106.9 110.8 114.4 128.5 144.7166.9

101.1

153.9

130.9

0

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

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Main origins of the coffee imported by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in 2008

Germany16.1%

Others24.7%

Finland16.0%

Colombia3.6%

Vietnam3.5%


Spain8.9%

Poland7.0%Brazil

5.8%

Lithuania5.7%

Denmark4.4%

Sweden4.2%

Supply and demand projections2010 to 2020

170

180

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mil

lion

bag

s


80

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Total production Total consumption Production trend High 2.4% Consumption 2% Low 1.5%

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World Coffee ConferenceGuatemala, 26-28 February 2010


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www.ico.org

major trends in the world coffee market · international coffee organization - spain 8.9% poland...

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