mak holdings investor conference – property market …
TRANSCRIPT
MAK HOLDINGS INVESTOR CONFERENCE – PROPERTY MARKET OVERVIEW
5th December 2017
Presentation Outline
• Knight Frank at a Glance
• Vital Statistics (Economy, Demographics)
• Why Invest in Uganda?
• Real Estate Market Overview
• - Residential
• - Commercial/Office
• - Hospitality
• Investment Opportunities with Mak Holdings Ltd
• Infrastructural Improvements (Road and Transport Network in Kampala)
• Conclusion
• Q&A
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Knight Frank At A Glance
Knight Frank Global Property Consultancy Firm established in London in 1896, and in Africa ( Nigeria first) in
1965. Largest independent real estate agency in the world Newmark Knight Frank - New York-based global partner Operations in over 417 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents 15,000 employees globally.
Knight Frank Africa Operations in 23 offices in 10 countries, 700 employees. Rwanda – latest addition to the Global Footprint.
Knight Frank Uganda Since 2000 with 155 employees Service lines:- Property Valuations, Commercial (retail and office) property management,
residential property management, Agency (acquisitions and disposals), Consultancy.
Global Foot Print
Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Botswana, Cambodia, China (Hong Kong/Macau), Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Kenya, Malawi, Malaysia, Monaco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Poland, Russia, Rwanda, Singapore, Spain, Tanzania, Thailand, Uganda, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Associate offices:- Bermuda, Brazil, Canada, Caribbean, Chile, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, USA
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
• Uganda’s GDP at market prices (UGX Billions)
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MONEY MARKET & INFLATION INDICATORS 2017
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DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE - UGANDA
• Population And Annual Growth Rates 1980 - 2014
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
1980 1991 2002 2014
Growth rate
Population
Year
Population Growth rate
Population growth: • 3.3% p.a - 2002-2014.
Projected Popn:• 45.8m in 2020• 53.5m in 2025• 61.9m in 2030
No of Households: • 7,305,887 in 2014 & • 5,043,256 in 2002(Average Hhd size of 4.7 people)
Source - UBOS
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE -KAMPALA
• Population Pyramid of Kampala
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WHY INVEST IN UGANDA?
Fully liberalized economy
Free Inflow & Out flow of Capital
Stable Annual Economic Growth – 5%
Stable inflation – low, single Digit Increased Government Expenditure on infrastructure - Over US $ 1bn
Population Growth Rate 3.3% paRelatively Secure country
Tourism Opportunities -Ranked No.1 destination in Africa for 2017 by Rough Guides
Strong Natural Resource Base – Oil & Gas
Market Access – SSA Strategic Positioning
PROPERTY SECTOR AT A GLANCE.
Sector Prime Passing Rents
Yields Occupancy Rates
Outlook
Office $16 - $17 net (psmp)
10% - 11% 85% Positive
Retail $ 22 - $100 net (psmpm)
12% - 14% 90% Strong
Residential (2 & 3 bed Apartments)
$ 2,500 - $ 3,500 per month
8% - 10% n/a Vibrant
Industrial $ 4.50 - $6.00 (psmpm)
13% - 15% 80% Positive
Hospitality $ 150 – $200 60% Positive
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• There is an emerging segment within the student accommodation space.• For hospitality ADR’s presented above are for 4 and 5 star hotels.
RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SECTOR OVERVIEW
• Residential property sector continues to grow supported by improvinginfrastructure and growing suburbs.
• The top end of the market has continued to attract both private and institutionalinvestors given the attractive returns over the years.
• Yields at the top end of the market are between 8% - 10% for USD basedrentals.
• For build to sale properties, developer’s profit ranges between 25% – 30%
• The biggest opportunities within the residential segment is in the middle to upperlow income bracket where demand outstrips supply.
• Uganda has an annual housing deficit of 210,000 units and 65,000 of this iswithin urban areas. Majority of this demand is for affordable housing.
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PRIME RESIDENTIAL RENTS – HOUSES
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Rents for houses in prime residential locations
RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET PRICES-CONTD
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Rents for serviced & furnished apartments in prime residential locations ($)
HOSTEL / STUDENT ACCOMODATION SECTOR.
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• Makerere University current student population – 40,000 students, growing at4% per annum.
• Currently, a total of 5,124 students have accommodation offered by theuniversity, at a space ratio of 13.76 sq.m per student totaling 70,506 m2 which isonly 12% of the requirement.
• Over 80% of student accommodation is built by private developers.
• Total built up area currently required for accommodation is 558,216 m2.
The Case for Student Accommodation
• There is a large and growing student population
• Universities can’t keep pace with demand for accommodation
• Higher education is recession-proof
• Net yields (13% – 14% which are often higher than traditional BTL (by to let)
gross yields.
• Purpose-built student accommodation in which students want to live
• Parents act as rent guarantors
• Professional property management
• Students could become long-term tenants.
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AVERAGE HOSTEL FEES PER SEMESTER
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Hostel Name Location Rent per semester (UGX)
Double Room (self-contained)
Double Room (ordinary)
Single Room (Self-contained)
Single Room (ordinary)
Ark Katanga 900,000 None 1,600,000 (Big) & 1,300,000 (Small)
None
Braeted Katanga 900,000 None 1,600,000 NoneMaimood Katanga 750,000 None 850,000 - 1,300,000
dependent on sizeNone
Dream-world Kikoni 750,000 (both Toilet and bathroom) & 640,000 (Only
bathroom)
580,000 1,200,000 930,000
Akwata Empola
Kikoni None None None 800,000
Kare Kikoni None 600,000 1,400,000 700,000Olympia Kikoni 950,000 None 1,400,000 NoneBridgeton Kikoni 650,000 None 900,000 550,000Muhika Kikoni 900,000 550,000 1,000,000 850,000Nana Kagugube
Road850,000 None 1,400,000 None
Miriam Kikumi-kikumi 620,000 (50rooms) & 660,000 (19rooms)
600,000 850,000 700,000
Akamwesi Nakawa 1,500,000 700,000 1,200,000 800,000Waterloo Kikumi-kikumi None 640,000 None 900,000
OFFICE SECTOR OVERVIEW
- Past 3 – 4 years office rentals have dropped and levelled out against a back dropof low demand and over supply in the Grade AB/B space, putting pressure on primerents.- Noticeable improvement in office rents and take up of space by H2 2016.- Noticeable increase in take-up of Grade A/AB office space, in modern, energy
efficient buildings, with adequate parking space out of the congested CBD area.- Vacancy rates have been highest in newer buildings with tenants driving hardbargains.- Prime office rentals still holding their values.- New office space demand continues to be driven by factors like ample parking,better facilities and less traffic congested areas.- Grade A office yields - 10% - 11%- Grade A rents - $16.00 - $17.00 per sq.m p.m- Grade B office rentals - $12.50 - $15.00 per sq.m p.m.
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HOSPITALITY PROPERTY SECTOR
• Figures from the 7th Annual Tourism Sector Performance Report indicate that
tourism continues to be a pillar of Uganda’s economy, contributing nearly
Shs7.3b to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the financial year 2015/2016. This
translates into 9% of the country’s GDP. This was an increase from Shs6.3b in
2014/15 financial year.
• Uganda was named as the fourth best tourism destination in the World and
number one in Africa for 2017 by the Rough Guides, a leading travel publisher.
Uganda is expected to attract more tourists in 2017 with its astonishing wildlife.
• There is no formal hotel grading system in the Uganda Hotel sector. Most of the
hotels graded as 5 star hotels are in actual sense closer to 3 – 5 star (midscale).
• The sector has continued to show good growth with occupancy rates averaging
between 65%- 70% and Average daily Rates (ADR’s) at $150.
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HOTEL DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE FOR UGANDA IN 2017
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• No of new planned Hotels: 12
• Total No. of Rooms: 1,751
• Pre-construction planning: 48%
• Rooms on site (Construction): 52%
• Average Daly Rates – $150
• Average Occupancy levels – 70% - 80%
Source: W-Hospitality Group
CONFERENCES AND EVENTS PERFORMANCE.
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Location # of conferences Jan-Nov 2016
# of ConferenceAttendees
# confirmed conferencesDec-July 2017
Kampala 907 16901 744
Entebbe 167 13677 8
Jinja 495 15702 279
Total 1,569 46,280 1,031
TOURIST ARRIVALS BY PURPOSE
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LOCATION OF THE 3 SUBJECT SITES IN KAMPALA.
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Kampala Major Arterial Routes
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Makindye
KololoMakerere
MAKINDYE – RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY
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14.00 Acres Plot in Makindye – 400 Housing units .
MAKERERE UNIVERSITY CAMPUS SITE – STUDENT ACCOM.
& CONVENTION CENTRE
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KOLOLO - COMMERCIAL PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT
OPPORTUNITY.
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Approx 13 Acres
6.14 Acres: Business office
park with a GBA of 100,000 m2.
4.15 Acres: 5 Star hotel with 150 keys
3.00 Acres: 100 Luxury 3- bedroom apartments @ with
GBA of 240m2 selling @ $375,000
KOLOLO - PRIME COMMERCIAL SITE
Mixed Used Development in Kololo on 13.00 Acres of land comprising aBusiness Park, Hotel and Luxury Apartments.
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Hotel (2.5 acres)
Business Park 1 (4 acres)
Business Park 2(3.5 Acres)
INFRASTURUCTURE PROJECTS BOUND TO TRANSFORM
KAMPALA
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The Kampala-Entebbe Express Highway
Links the Kampala Northern Bypass with
Nakasero
Connects to the Major hotels and
Conference Centres
Links with the Kampala Flyover
Construction
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Nakasero VVIP Express Route
Kampala Flyover Project
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MASS RAPID TRANSPORT SYSTEM
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CONCLUSION
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• Real estate is cyclical business and as such it follows economic cyclesand is a long term investment that requires a long term attitude.
• According to the IMF, economic growth is expected to accelerate to 5%in the next financial year (2017/18) buoyed by improving weatherconditions and a recovery in private sector credit. Additionally,Infrastructure and oil sector investment are envisaged to lead recoveryof growth to 6% over the medium-term.
• Real estate as an asset class creates an opportunity for relatively highrisk adjusted returns for investor who can obtain cost efficient, highquality information.
• Above all, the World Bank has lifted suspension of funding to the Roadsector in Uganda. As a result, we envisage an increase in publicinfrastructure spending which is expected to support economic growthin the second half of 2017.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Questions &
Answers
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