making sense of the census american community survey and decennial census using factfinder...
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MAKING SENSE OF THE CENSUS
American Community Survey and Decennial Census
Using FactFinder
Significant Demographic Signals
Barry BennettPopulation Programs CoordinatorOhio Development Services Agency
U.S. ConstitutionArticle 1, Section 2:"The actual enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct."
American Community Survey
United States Census Bureau
Reapportionment/Redistricting
Program-related data
American Community Survey
United States Census Bureau
• Replaces old long form
• Collects programmatic socio-economic data
• Continuous sampling; published every year
• One-year samples (Sept. -geographies of 65,000+ pop.)• Three-year samples (Oct. -geographies 20,000 – 65,000 pop.)• Five-year samples (Dec. - all geographies)
• Lower-precision data for small areas and small groups
American Community SurveyUnited States Census Bureau
Problematic Example: Latino population
Geography 2010 Census Count 2010ACS Estimate Abs. Diff. %Diff.Ohio 354,674 333,019 24,073 0.21Franklin Co. 55,718 49,675 6,043 10.85Lorain Co., CT 231 2,029 2,112 83 4.1Lorain Co., CT 231, BG 2 583 724 141 24.2
Lesson: For base population & household counts, use 2010 Census; for intercensal years, use Population Estimates.
American Community SurveyUnited States Census Bureau
• Use of ACS statistics requires some judgment
• Jury still out on utilization
• Small-area programs adjusting guidelines
American Community SurveyUnited States Census Bureau
Estimates and reliability of socio-economic characteristics:
• How important is a spot-on estimate?• Can estimates at next-highest geography do?
• Can we use a trend? (forthcoming option)
• Divide margin of error/estimate –• If ratio is <.30, use with no reservation• If ratio is .31 - .49, use with caution• If ratio is >= .5, answer these three questions:
• Call your friendly State Data Center for assistance
ACS05-07 ACS06-08 ACS07-09 ACS08-10 ACS09-1110000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Guernsey County Median Household Income Trend
Note: Estimates are not statistically independent, nor significantly different
Go To American FactFinder
American FactFinder
• Tons of data, lots of flexibility - both solution and problem• Will cover three approaches:
• Quick Start (search term phrasing important!)• “Data Compiler” mode• Bookmarking/save query
Asians now lead Latinos in annual immigrationBy Michael MatzaPhiladelphia Inquirer Staff Writer
Census Bureau Report Shows Shared Households Increased 11.4 Percent from 2007 to 2010
1.8 million Ohioans see income drop, report saysReport sees dip in 2010; more lack safety net to cover emergencies.
“…older Americans are losing their homes because of pension cuts, rising medical costs, shrinking stock portfolios and falling property values”
Oct 29, 2012 - “According to the government, 780,000 Ohioans are underemployed or unemployed…A growing number of people are taking part-time jobs that pay less than their experience or education level,…” [Cincinnati.com]
Prominent Demographic Trends
• Baby Boom Effects• More elderly, fewer births, less mobile• Changing household composition
• Household Income Decline• Systemic (?) work – income structure change• House-sharing• More young urban renters
• Cultural Nuancing• Urban centers with larger, more diverse
Asian, Latino, African populations
Baby Boom Effects
Counties with More Deaths than Births - Measured
Counties with More Deaths than Births - Extrapolated
Counties with More Deaths than Births - Extrapolated
Counties with More Deaths than Births – Extrapolated
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Average annual expenditures, Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2006-2011
Item 2006 2008 20112011 vs. 2008
Number of consumer units (in thousands) 118,843 120,770 122,287
Income before taxes 1/ $60,533 $63,563 $63,685higher
Income after taxes 1/ $58,101 $61,774 $61,673lower
Average annual expenditures $48,398 $50,486 $49,705lower
Food $6,111 $6,443 $6,458even
Housing $16,366 $17,109 $16,803lower
Rented dwellings $2,590 $2,724 $3,029higher
Other lodging $567 $698 $648
Utilities, fuels, and public services $3,397 $3,649 $3,727higher
Water and other public services $397 $446 $501higher
Household operations $948 $998 $1,122higher
Apparel and services $1,874 $1,801 $1,740lower
Transportation $8,508 $8,604 $8,293lower
Vehicle purchases (net outlay) $3,421 $2,755 $2,669even
Gasoline and motor oil $2,227 $2,715 $2,655lower
Health care $2,766 $2,976 $3,313higher
Health insurance $1,465 $1,653 $1,922higher
Entertainment $2,376 $2,835 $2,572lower
Personal insurance and pensions $5,270 $5,605 $5,424lower
Assets and Liabilities
Money income before taxes 1/ $60,533 $63,563 $63,685higher
Wages and salaries $48,119 $51,007 $49,805lower
Self-employment income $3,607 $3,219 $3,269even
Social Security, private and government retirement $6,139 $6,577 $7,648higher
Interest, dividends, rental income, other property income $1,486 $1,509 $1,281lower
Unemployment and workers' compensation, veterans' benefits $207 $225 $579higher
Public assistance, supplemental security income, food stamps $340 $371 $520higher
Federal income taxes $1,711 $1,817 $1,370lower
State and local income taxes $519 $542 $505lower
Net change in total assets (year-over-year) $11,120 $7,349 $6,836lower
Net change in total liabilities (year-over-year) $18,173 $11,421 $8,662lower
Estimated market value of owned home $183,212 $169,794 $151,165lower
CULTURAL NUANCING
Racial/Ethnic Group Growth Rates Since 1990 In Ohio’s Three Largest Counties
Franklin Cuyahoga Hamilton
American/African Black 61.8% 8.6% 13.7%Asian 131.5% 81.8% 75.9%Latino 503.3% 94.8% 296.4%
All Other 4.6% -20.4% -16.6%
1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 20100.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
Urban Area Demographic Composition, 1990 & 2010
All Other Groups Black/Asian/Latino
Franklin Cuyahoga Hamilton
Average annual expenditures and characteristics of all consumer units, Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2006-2010
Item 2006 2010
Number of consumer units (in thousands) 118,843 121,107Income before taxes 1/ $60,533 $62,481Income after taxes 1/ $58,101 $60,712
Average annual expenditures $48,398 $48,109 Food $6,111 $6,129 Food at home $3,417 $3,624 Food away from home $2,694 $2,505
Housing $16,366 $16,557 Owned dwellings $6,516 $6,277 Rented dwellings $2,590 $2,900
Apparel and services $1,874 $1,700 Transportation $8,508 $7,677 Vehicle purchases (net outlay) $3,421 $2,588 Maintenance and repairs $688 $787 Vehicle rental, leases, licenses, and other charges $482 $423
Public transportation $505 $493 Healthcare $2,766 $3,157 Health insurance $1,465 $1,831 Medical services $670 $722 Drugs $514 $485 Medical supplies $117 $119
Entertainment $2,376 $2,504 Personal care products and services $585 $582 Personal insurance and pensions $5,270 $5,373 Life and other personal insurance $322 $318 Pensions and Social Security $4,948 $5,054
Money income before taxes 1/ $60,533 $62,481 Wages and salaries $48,119 $49,568 Interest, dividends, rental income, other property income $1,486 $1,182 Unemployment and workers' compensation, veterans' benefits $207 $634 Public assistance, supplemental security income, food stamps $340 $505
Personal taxes 1/ $2,432 $1,769 Net change in total assets $11,120 $5,503 Estimated market value of owned home $183,212 $155,083
Source: Consumer Expenditure Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September, 2011
