Mapping the Value of the Brazilian Amazon Rainforest:

Accomplishments To Date and Potential Extensions

Jon StrandPrevious Senior Economist, DECEE

Principal Project Investigator

Mike TomanManager, DECEE

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Key objective of this project:

• Develop novel cross-disciplinary methods for measuring and mapping ecosystem values for the Amazon

• Spatially differentiated “snapshot” of economic values of several ecosystem components for the Amazon

• Parameters (such as prices) are either given, or user can specify them

• Map both biophysical and economic measures at 0.25 km2 and 1 km2 grid sizes

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Our spatial valuation of the Amazon ecosystem provides several types of policy-relevant information:

1. Where to discourage conversion of rainforest to agriculture, by making it possible to compare preservation values to opportunity values (agricultural use and timber values)

2. Where new national parks and indigenous zones can provide high levels of ecosystem service protection

3. Where to focus effort to prevent illegal logging

4. Where to focus effort to prevent forest fires.

Our web-based mapping system pulls all this information together.

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Scope of the project: Ecosystem services

• National and regional values:(a) Sustainable timber and non-timber forest product extraction(b) Impact of forest cover on continental rainfall, with consequences for soybean and beef production, and for hydropower(c) Indicators of biodiversity

• Broader/global values: Carbon storage; “existence values”• Carbon values are mapped for Brazilian Amazon• Existence values included through (so far limited) stated-preference

work (earlier WB studies addressed this at an international level)

• Other values precluded for cost and data reasons• Values included judged to be important, and quantifiable with current

resources.

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Key project team

• Jon Strand initiated and conceptualized the work and its components, was involved in their execution, and put together the project team

• Mike Toman guided quality assurance and project implementation

• Team includes biologists, climate scientists, hydrologists, geographers/GIS specialists, IT experts, all from Brazil; economists from different countries

• Britaldo Soares-Filho and colleagues at Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG): Responsible for the “valuation platform” and most mappings (see http://csr.ufmg.br/amazones/ )

• Marcos Costa and colleagues at Federal University of Viçosa: Responsible for hydrological impact calculations and mappings (see http://www.biosfera.dea.ufv.br/en-US/deforestation-and-rainfall )

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Implementation of the project

• Initial meeting in World Bank office, Brasilia, 2011.

• Briefings with government and other stakeholders at WB CO during the work program.• Primary government stakeholders were Ministries of Environment, Finance,

and Science and Technology; major research institutes also engaged

• Met separately with Ministry of Environment, Brasilia; BNDES and IPEA, Rio; Norwegian Embassy, Brasilia

• Project received strong endorsement from government participants.

• Methods and results presented at WB HQ in May 2016 (preliminary only), later in numerous other fora.

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Project baseline based on predicted change in Amazon forest cover to 2050

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2/3 of vegetation cover in 15 ecoregions among 32 would be eliminated

Analyzing changes by watershed and ecoregion

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Mapping and economic valuation methodology

• Biophysical properties and economic values assessed for “sustainable” timber, Brazil nut and rubber harvests; carbon; and impacts of rainfall changes on agriculture and hydropower due to forest loss.

1. Timber values are mapped based on legal sustainable timber harvesting for the Brazilian Amazon (“Reduced Impact Logging”).

2. We map spatial risks of current and future forest fires.

3. Agricultural and hydropower impacts are based on market value of lost output when continental rainfall is reduced by forest loss.

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Mapping and economic valuation methodology (cont.)

• Several biodiversity metrics are mapped, to help the user identify priority conservation areas:

1. Endemicity; phylogenetic composition; species composition; species richness; biodiversity conservation priority areas.

2. These measures have not yet been given economic values.

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Mapping hydrological impacts of forest losses( http://www.biosfera.dea.ufv.br/en-US/deforestation-and-rainfall )

3 steps:

1. Impacts of Amazon losses on rainfall in South America, using a GCM.

2. Impacts of rainfall changes on returns from soy, beef and hydropower

3. “Reverse calculation”: impacts for soy, beef and hydropower for each (large) forest pixel loss in the Amazon, in US$/ha/year.

Impacts of deforestation on soy + beef about $10-20/ha/year.

(Likely under-estimated at least for soy, as soy area has expanded)

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Carbon emissions from deforestation

• Carbon abatement is an important value in Amazon protection.

• A carbon emissions map is part of the valuation platform.

• Average emissions when Amazon rainforest is lost ≈130 ton C/ha (460 ton CO2/ha). Variable across the biome.

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Forest fires, and forest value assessment, are part of the project

• Based on two models: FISC and EcoFire, developed at UFMG.

• Maps observed and simulated fire occurrence and losses (to 2040).

• Not a value element as such. But forest fires have (potentially large) implications for forest value.

• Aims of this work:a) Model forest fire occurrence and spread using the FISC model

b) Calculating economic costs due to forest fires using the EcoFire model

c) Map externality impacts: forest losses lead to further losses due to forest fragmentation and dryness.

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Stated-preference work

• Pilot surveys (200 interviews), with stated-preference questionnaire on Amazon forest protection, designed for implementation in all of Brazil.

• Ronaldo Seroa da Motta (State University of Rio de Janeiro) and Juha Siikamäki (Chief Economist, IUCN) managed stated-preference work, jointly with Jon Strand.

• Complementary research in WB (led by Jon Strand):1. Valuation survey in North America for Amazon forest protection

2. Global “meta-analysis” to value Amazon protection outside of South America.

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Only limited stated-preference work has been done so far. 3 pilot surveys have focused on forest loss, biodiversity loss, and local climate effects (found important in focus groups).

Results below in WTP/hh/month, from pilots.We intend to do more extensive SP work given the opportunity.

R$ 7.4

R$ 3.0

R$ 10.0

R$ 17.3

R$ 20.4

R$ 0

R$ 5

R$ 10

R$ 15

R$ 20

R$ 25

WTP to avoid 20% forest loss WTP to avoid 10% of species at risk ofextinction (not statistically significant)

WTP to avoid 20% risk of regionalflooding and droughts

Combined WTP*: Avoid forest loss andregional flooding and droughts, zero

WTP for species extinction

Combined WTP**: Avoid forest loss andregional flooding and droughts,

estimated mean WTP for speciesextinction

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Aggregate value of included components is summed up in the valuation platform

• Adds the economic values for RIL; rubber; Brazil nut; carbon; and hydrological impacts on soy, beef and hydropower.

• Calculates protection value/ha/year across the entire Brazilian Amazon, for these elements.

• User can insert values for carbon, soy, beef, el prices.

• Biodiversity values, and several other value items are not (yet) included in the platform.

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Illustration of project findings:

Sums up results for spatial distributions of economic values of individual value components, and aggregate

Possibilities for additional work

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A useful first step: Dissemination of results with discussion of possible extensions

• Last stakeholder briefing in Brazil in June 2016, before project was finished.

• No presentation of the complete project has been given in Brazil.

• Substantial interest in information about the project from Brazilian Ministries and Agencies, in particular Ministry of Environment.

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Some options for additional analysis

• Biodiversity mapping:• Explore priority locations for biodiversity conservation by different

indicators (endemicity; species richness; etc.)

• Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of biodiversity conservation investments.

• Extended stated-preference work in Brazil:• Provide valuable complement to biological indicators, and better

information about the Brazilian population’s interest in Amazon forest area protection, biodiversity preservation, local climate impacts.

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Options for additional analysis (cont.)

• Improve the basis for mapping of hydrological changes due to forest loss

Current modeling is based on only one GCM, for cost reasons. Ought to be extended to include results from several GCMs.

• Incorporate agricultural land values/opportunity valuesOpportunity values important for comparison with protection values, for deciding net protection values.

• Extension to dynamic value mappingCurrent platform shows current (“snapshot”) value only. May extend the platform to indicate how land and ecosystem service values evolve over time, under different scenarios.

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Thank you!

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