Mapping the Global FutureMapping the Global FutureMapping the Global FutureMapping the Global Futurepp gpp gpp gpp g

Report of the National Intelligence Council 2020 ProjectReport of the National Intelligence Council 2020 ProjectReport of the National Intelligence Council 2020 ProjectReport of the National Intelligence Council 2020 Project

Why did the NIC undertake the 2020 study?

Challenge policy community to think beyond in-box at a time of enormous flux in the international system. Challenge policy community to think beyond in-box at a time of enormous flux in the international system.

Stimulate a strategic dialogue domestically and internationally.Stimulate a strategic dialogue domestically and internationally.internationally.

Open our minds to developments we might otherwise

internationally.

Open our minds to developments we might otherwise miss—not to predict the future but to better prepare for a range of possible “futures.”miss—not to predict the future but to better prepare for a range of possible “futures.”

Mapping the Global FutureMapping the Global Future builds on Global builds on Global Trends 2015 but differs in several respects:Trends 2015 but differs in several respects:

Consulted more than 1,000 experts in more than three Consulted more than 1,000 experts in more than three dozen conferences on five continents.dozen conferences on five continents.Consulted more than 1,000 experts in more than three Consulted more than 1,000 experts in more than three dozen conferences on five continents.dozen conferences on five continents.

Developed imaginative Developed imaginative scenariosscenarios to represent several to represent several plausible “futures” and anticipate discontinuities.plausible “futures” and anticipate discontinuities.Developed imaginative Developed imaginative scenariosscenarios to represent several to represent several plausible “futures” and anticipate discontinuities.plausible “futures” and anticipate discontinuities.plausible futures and anticipate discontinuities. plausible futures and anticipate discontinuities.

Created an interactive website with a vast data base that Created an interactive website with a vast data base that ll t t k l b l t d d t th ill t t k l b l t d d t th i

plausible futures and anticipate discontinuities. plausible futures and anticipate discontinuities.

Created an interactive website with a vast data base that Created an interactive website with a vast data base that ll t t k l b l t d d t th ill t t k l b l t d d t th iallows users to track global trends and create their own allows users to track global trends and create their own

scenarios. scenarios. allows users to track global trends and create their own allows users to track global trends and create their own scenarios. scenarios.

Main FindingsMain Findings: :

The process of globalization will generate unprecedented The process of globalization will generate unprecedented prosperity but its benefits will spread unevenlyprosperity but its benefits will spread unevenlyThe process of globalization will generate unprecedented The process of globalization will generate unprecedented prosperity but its benefits will spread unevenlyprosperity but its benefits will spread unevenlyprosperity, but its benefits will spread unevenly. prosperity, but its benefits will spread unevenly.

A stateA state--bound world and a world of megabound world and a world of mega--cities, linked by cities, linked by flows of telecommunications trade and finance will coexistflows of telecommunications trade and finance will coexist

prosperity, but its benefits will spread unevenly. prosperity, but its benefits will spread unevenly.

A stateA state--bound world and a world of megabound world and a world of mega--cities, linked by cities, linked by flows of telecommunications trade and finance will coexistflows of telecommunications trade and finance will coexistflows of telecommunications, trade and finance, will coexist.flows of telecommunications, trade and finance, will coexist.

The likely emergence of China and India, among others, as The likely emergence of China and India, among others, as major global players will transform the geopolitical landscapemajor global players will transform the geopolitical landscape

flows of telecommunications, trade and finance, will coexist.flows of telecommunications, trade and finance, will coexist.

The likely emergence of China and India, among others, as The likely emergence of China and India, among others, as major global players will transform the geopolitical landscapemajor global players will transform the geopolitical landscapemajor global players will transform the geopolitical landscape.major global players will transform the geopolitical landscape.

The likelihood of great power conflict escalating into total war The likelihood of great power conflict escalating into total war is lower than at any time in the past centuryis lower than at any time in the past century

major global players will transform the geopolitical landscape.major global players will transform the geopolitical landscape.

The likelihood of great power conflict escalating into total war The likelihood of great power conflict escalating into total war is lower than at any time in the past centuryis lower than at any time in the past centuryis lower than at any time in the past century.is lower than at any time in the past century.

Global terrorism will transmute into a more diffuse and Global terrorism will transmute into a more diffuse and politicized network posing a powerful counterpoliticized network posing a powerful counter--ideology to theideology to the

is lower than at any time in the past century.is lower than at any time in the past century.

Global terrorism will transmute into a more diffuse and Global terrorism will transmute into a more diffuse and politicized network posing a powerful counterpoliticized network posing a powerful counter--ideology to theideology to thepoliticized network, posing a powerful counterpoliticized network, posing a powerful counter--ideology to the ideology to the international order itself. international order itself. politicized network, posing a powerful counterpoliticized network, posing a powerful counter--ideology to the ideology to the international order itself. international order itself.

The report sees globalizationThe report sees globalization——the greater the greater flow of information capital and peopleflow of information capital and people as aas aflow of information, capital, and peopleflow of information, capital, and people——as a as a megamega--trendtrend, shaping all other major trends., shaping all other major trends.

The world economy is projected to be 80% larger in 2020 than The world economy is projected to be 80% larger in 2020 than in 2000, with average per capita income roughly 50% higher.in 2000, with average per capita income roughly 50% higher.The world economy is projected to be 80% larger in 2020 than The world economy is projected to be 80% larger in 2020 than in 2000, with average per capita income roughly 50% higher.in 2000, with average per capita income roughly 50% higher.

Unprecedented numbers of people will be lifted out of poverty, Unprecedented numbers of people will be lifted out of poverty, and globalization’s benefits will be extended to parts of the and globalization’s benefits will be extended to parts of the

ld f l d dld f l d d

Unprecedented numbers of people will be lifted out of poverty, Unprecedented numbers of people will be lifted out of poverty, and globalization’s benefits will be extended to parts of the and globalization’s benefits will be extended to parts of the

ld f l d dld f l d dworld so far excluded.world so far excluded.

The economies of some developing countries, such as Brazil, The economies of some developing countries, such as Brazil, ld ll b t th l t E t ild ll b t th l t E t i

world so far excluded.world so far excluded.

The economies of some developing countries, such as Brazil, The economies of some developing countries, such as Brazil, ld ll b t th l t E t ild ll b t th l t E t icould surpass all but the largest European countries.could surpass all but the largest European countries.

Adaptive countriesAdaptive countries––those with good governance, universal those with good governance, universal education and open economieseducation and open economies will be the “winners” becausewill be the “winners” because

could surpass all but the largest European countries.could surpass all but the largest European countries.

Adaptive countriesAdaptive countries––those with good governance, universal those with good governance, universal education and open economieseducation and open economies will be the “winners” becausewill be the “winners” becauseeducation, and open economieseducation, and open economies––will be the “winners” because will be the “winners” because of their ability to integrate and apply new technologies.of their ability to integrate and apply new technologies.education, and open economieseducation, and open economies––will be the “winners” because will be the “winners” because of their ability to integrate and apply new technologies.of their ability to integrate and apply new technologies.

…But the benefits of globalization won’t be …But the benefits of globalization won’t be global and its effects won’t all be benignglobal and its effects won’t all be benignglobal and its effects won’t all be benign.global and its effects won’t all be benign.

Substantial parts of the developing world will be left behindSubstantial parts of the developing world will be left behindSubstantial parts of the developing world will be left behindSubstantial parts of the developing world will be left behindSubstantial parts of the developing world will be left behind, Substantial parts of the developing world will be left behind, and there will be large areas of poverty even in rapidly and there will be large areas of poverty even in rapidly emerging economies. Inequalities will grow more acute.emerging economies. Inequalities will grow more acute.

Substantial parts of the developing world will be left behind, Substantial parts of the developing world will be left behind, and there will be large areas of poverty even in rapidly and there will be large areas of poverty even in rapidly emerging economies. Inequalities will grow more acute.emerging economies. Inequalities will grow more acute.

Integrating up to a billion new lowIntegrating up to a billion new low--paid workers into the paid workers into the world labor market will cause massive shift in production world labor market will cause massive shift in production patterns, affecting developed and underdeveloped alikepatterns, affecting developed and underdeveloped alike..

Integrating up to a billion new lowIntegrating up to a billion new low--paid workers into the paid workers into the world labor market will cause massive shift in production world labor market will cause massive shift in production patterns, affecting developed and underdeveloped alikepatterns, affecting developed and underdeveloped alike..patterns, affecting developed and underdeveloped alikepatterns, affecting developed and underdeveloped alike..

Rapid growth will accentuate global climate change and Rapid growth will accentuate global climate change and create new demands for oil gas and other raw materialscreate new demands for oil gas and other raw materials

patterns, affecting developed and underdeveloped alikepatterns, affecting developed and underdeveloped alike..

Rapid growth will accentuate global climate change and Rapid growth will accentuate global climate change and create new demands for oil gas and other raw materialscreate new demands for oil gas and other raw materialscreate new demands for oil, gas, and other raw materials.create new demands for oil, gas, and other raw materials.

The revolution in global communications provides the The revolution in global communications provides the means for the growth of megameans for the growth of mega movements and the hypermovements and the hyper

create new demands for oil, gas, and other raw materials.create new demands for oil, gas, and other raw materials.

The revolution in global communications provides the The revolution in global communications provides the means for the growth of megameans for the growth of mega movements and the hypermovements and the hypermeans for the growth of megameans for the growth of mega--movements and the hypermovements and the hyper--empowerment of individuals for both good and ill.empowerment of individuals for both good and ill.means for the growth of megameans for the growth of mega--movements and the hypermovements and the hyper--empowerment of individuals for both good and ill.empowerment of individuals for both good and ill.

A Second Major Theme: Rise of New A Second Major Theme: Rise of New Global Actors, led by China and IndiaGlobal Actors, led by China and India

Globalization will take on a nonGlobalization will take on a non Western face as risingWestern face as risingGlobalization will take on a nonGlobalization will take on a non Western face as risingWestern face as risingGlobalization will take on a nonGlobalization will take on a non--Western face as rising Western face as rising Asian giants displace Western countries as the focus of Asian giants displace Western countries as the focus of economic dynamism. economic dynamism.

Ri i i ill h th l f thRi i i ill h th l f th

Globalization will take on a nonGlobalization will take on a non--Western face as rising Western face as rising Asian giants displace Western countries as the focus of Asian giants displace Western countries as the focus of economic dynamism. economic dynamism.

Ri i i ill h th l f thRi i i ill h th l f th•• Rising economic powers will reshape the rules of the Rising economic powers will reshape the rules of the game, using the power of their markets to set industry game, using the power of their markets to set industry standards and project their own cultural identities. standards and project their own cultural identities.

•• Rising economic powers will reshape the rules of the Rising economic powers will reshape the rules of the game, using the power of their markets to set industry game, using the power of their markets to set industry standards and project their own cultural identities. standards and project their own cultural identities.

Chinese and Indian economic growth is not newChinese and Indian economic growth is not new——but but whereas the impact has so far been largely internal, by 2020 whereas the impact has so far been largely internal, by 2020 Chinese and Indian economic growth is not newChinese and Indian economic growth is not new——but but whereas the impact has so far been largely internal, by 2020 whereas the impact has so far been largely internal, by 2020 it will have transformed the geopolitical landscape. it will have transformed the geopolitical landscape.

Whether these new powers relate cooperatively or Whether these new powers relate cooperatively or

it will have transformed the geopolitical landscape. it will have transformed the geopolitical landscape.

Whether these new powers relate cooperatively or Whether these new powers relate cooperatively or p p yp p ycompetitively to other countries is an open question; either competitively to other countries is an open question; either way, their growing power will need to be accommodated. way, their growing power will need to be accommodated.

p p yp p ycompetitively to other countries is an open question; either competitively to other countries is an open question; either way, their growing power will need to be accommodated. way, their growing power will need to be accommodated.

A European Superpower? Asia’s rise does not imply Europe’s decline—or America’s, for that p y p ,matter. Here’s what the report says:

“By most measures—market size, single currency, highly skilled work force, stable democratic governments, and unified trade bloc—an enlarged

“By most measures—market size, single currency, highly skilled work force, stable democratic governments, and unified trade bloc—an enlarged Europe will be able to increase its weight on the international scene…. Europe will be able to increase its weight on the international scene….

“But aging populations and shrinking work forces in most countries will have an important impact on the continent Either European countries adapt their work

“But aging populations and shrinking work forces in most countries will have an important impact on the continent Either European countries adapt their workcontinent. Either European countries adapt their work forces, reform their social welfare, education, and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations (chiefly from Muslim countries) or they

continent. Either European countries adapt their work forces, reform their social welfare, education, and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations (chiefly from Muslim countries) or theypopulations (chiefly from Muslim countries), or they face a period of protracted economic stasis.” populations (chiefly from Muslim countries), or they face a period of protracted economic stasis.”

EnergyEnergy——potential focus for international potential focus for international cooperation or rivalry.cooperation or rivalry.

Energy consumption probably will rise by 50% in Energy consumption probably will rise by 50% in next two decades compared to 34% from 1980next two decades compared to 34% from 1980--2000 owing to heightened demand from China2000 owing to heightened demand from China

Energy consumption probably will rise by 50% in Energy consumption probably will rise by 50% in next two decades compared to 34% from 1980next two decades compared to 34% from 1980--2000 owing to heightened demand from China2000 owing to heightened demand from China2000, owing to heightened demand from China, 2000, owing to heightened demand from China, India, and others. India, and others. 2000, owing to heightened demand from China, 2000, owing to heightened demand from China, India, and others. India, and others.

Many of the areas counted on to provide increased Many of the areas counted on to provide increased output involve substantial political or economic risk. output involve substantial political or economic risk. Many of the areas counted on to provide increased Many of the areas counted on to provide increased output involve substantial political or economic risk. output involve substantial political or economic risk.

Some countries will benefit from exports, while Some countries will benefit from exports, while others compete for sources of energy.others compete for sources of energy.Some countries will benefit from exports, while Some countries will benefit from exports, while others compete for sources of energy.others compete for sources of energy.

A Third Major Theme:New Challenges to GovernanceNew Challenges to Governance

Economic globalization and the dispersion of informationEconomic globalization and the dispersion of informationEconomic globalization and the dispersion of information technologies will place enormous strains on governments.

Governments that lack the resilience of established

Economic globalization and the dispersion of information technologies will place enormous strains on governments.

Governments that lack the resilience of establishedGovernments that lack the resilience of established democracies will be especially at risk.

Corruption will remain a key vulnerability in states with

Governments that lack the resilience of established democracies will be especially at risk.

Corruption will remain a key vulnerability in states with p y yweak political institutions.

Indigenous movements will grow in strength as will new

p y yweak political institutions.

Indigenous movements will grow in strength as will newIndigenous movements will grow in strength, as will new forms of identity politics centered on religious conviction rather than ideology or nationalism.

Indigenous movements will grow in strength, as will new forms of identity politics centered on religious conviction rather than ideology or nationalism.

The growth of Protestant, Pentecostal, charismatic, and evangelical churches is transforming traditional identities. The growth of Protestant, Pentecostal, charismatic, and evangelical churches is transforming traditional identities.

International Institutions in CrisisInternational Institutions in CrisisInternational Institutions in CrisisInternational Institutions in Crisis

I t ti l i tit ti ill b h ll d tI t ti l i tit ti ill b h ll d tInternational institutions will be challenged to: International institutions will be challenged to:

integrate the rising powers.integrate the rising powers.

respond to complex transnational threats.respond to complex transnational threats.

manage a new ethical agenda linked tomanage a new ethical agenda linked tomanage a new ethical agenda linked to manage a new ethical agenda linked to biotechnology issues such as human cloning, biotechnology issues such as human cloning, GMOs, and access to biomedicines.GMOs, and access to biomedicines.

The global trading and financial system will also The global trading and financial system will also d t i t ti i t id t i t ti i t icome under strain, as protectionist pressures rise come under strain, as protectionist pressures rise

and the sheer number of actors hinders agreement.and the sheer number of actors hinders agreement.

Latin America in 2020:Growing Heterogeneity?Growing Heterogeneity?

Latin America faces new crises, owing to: Latin America faces new crises, owing to: weak governance and “low quality” democracyweak governance and “low quality” democracystrengthened indigenous movements and class conflictstrengthened indigenous movements and class conflict

Latin America faces new crises, owing to: Latin America faces new crises, owing to: weak governance and “low quality” democracyweak governance and “low quality” democracystrengthened indigenous movements and class conflictstrengthened indigenous movements and class conflictstrengthened indigenous movements and class conflictstrengthened indigenous movements and class conflictthe mobilizing power of the IT revolutionthe mobilizing power of the IT revolution

The region ill increasingl split along north/so th lines asThe region ill increasingl split along north/so th lines as

strengthened indigenous movements and class conflictstrengthened indigenous movements and class conflictthe mobilizing power of the IT revolutionthe mobilizing power of the IT revolution

The region ill increasingl split along north/so th lines asThe region ill increasingl split along north/so th lines asThe region will increasingly split along north/south lines, as The region will increasingly split along north/south lines, as Mexico and Central America continue looking to the US while Mexico and Central America continue looking to the US while South America develops a subSouth America develops a sub--regional identityregional identity

The region will increasingly split along north/south lines, as The region will increasingly split along north/south lines, as Mexico and Central America continue looking to the US while Mexico and Central America continue looking to the US while South America develops a subSouth America develops a sub--regional identityregional identity

Latin America’s international standing will diminish as Latin America’s international standing will diminish as globalization favors rising Asia and US attention is divertedglobalization favors rising Asia and US attention is divertedLatin America’s international standing will diminish as Latin America’s international standing will diminish as globalization favors rising Asia and US attention is divertedglobalization favors rising Asia and US attention is divertedglobalization favors rising Asia and US attention is diverted globalization favors rising Asia and US attention is diverted elsewhere.elsewhere.globalization favors rising Asia and US attention is diverted globalization favors rising Asia and US attention is diverted elsewhere.elsewhere.

A Fourth Major Theme:A Fourth Major Theme: More Pervasive Insecurity

This sense of insecurity will be based as much on psychological perceptions as on physical threats.This sense of insecurity will be based as much on psychological perceptions as on physical threats.p y g p p p y

Terrorism, almost by definition, produces psychological effects that go far beyond the actual harm inflicted

p y g p p p y

Terrorism, almost by definition, produces psychological effects that go far beyond the actual harm inflictedeffects that go far beyond the actual harm inflicted.

Even a largely positive force like globalization will be

effects that go far beyond the actual harm inflicted.

Even a largely positive force like globalization will be g y p gprofoundly unsettling, as hundreds of millions of new workers enter a more integrated world labor market.

g y p gprofoundly unsettling, as hundreds of millions of new workers enter a more integrated world labor market.

A More Pervasive Insecurity (continued…)A More Pervasive Insecurity (continued…)

The likelihood of great power conflict escalating into totalThe likelihood of great power conflict escalating into totalThe likelihood of great power conflict escalating into totalwar is lower than at any time in the past century.

A d th l f th i fli t i t lik l t t t

The likelihood of great power conflict escalating into totalwar is lower than at any time in the past century.

A d th l f th i fli t i t lik l t t tAnd the prevalence of ethnic conflict is not likely to return to the peak level of the immediate post-Cold War period. And the prevalence of ethnic conflict is not likely to return to the peak level of the immediate post-Cold War period.

Asymmetric threats will continue to pose the greatest danger. The greatest single concern is that terrorists might acquire biological agents or less likely a nuclear device either of

Asymmetric threats will continue to pose the greatest danger. The greatest single concern is that terrorists might acquire biological agents or less likely a nuclear device either ofbiological agents or, less likely, a nuclear device, either of which could cause mass casualties.biological agents or, less likely, a nuclear device, either of which could cause mass casualties.

The key factors that spawned international The key factors that spawned international terrorism show few signs of abating over theterrorism show few signs of abating over theterrorism show few signs of abating over the terrorism show few signs of abating over the next 15 years.next 15 years.

Globalization raises the stakesGlobalization raises the stakes——offering new possibilities for offering new possibilities for Arab states so far excluded from its benefitsArab states so far excluded from its benefits——but accentuating but accentuating the alienation and humiliation that fuel radicalism.the alienation and humiliation that fuel radicalism.

Globalization raises the stakesGlobalization raises the stakes——offering new possibilities for offering new possibilities for Arab states so far excluded from its benefitsArab states so far excluded from its benefits——but accentuating but accentuating the alienation and humiliation that fuel radicalism.the alienation and humiliation that fuel radicalism.

Political Islam will remain a major force out to 2020, owing to Political Islam will remain a major force out to 2020, owing to a combination of factors: youth bulges in many Arab states,a combination of factors: youth bulges in many Arab states,Political Islam will remain a major force out to 2020, owing to Political Islam will remain a major force out to 2020, owing to a combination of factors: youth bulges in many Arab states,a combination of factors: youth bulges in many Arab states,y g y ,y g y ,poor economic prospects, the influence of religious education,poor economic prospects, the influence of religious education,and the “Islamization” of intermediary institutions. and the “Islamization” of intermediary institutions.

y g y ,y g y ,poor economic prospects, the influence of religious education,poor economic prospects, the influence of religious education,and the “Islamization” of intermediary institutions. and the “Islamization” of intermediary institutions.

The revival of Muslim identity around the world, as well as the The revival of Muslim identity around the world, as well as the spread of jihadist ideology, will continue to accelerate thanks to spread of jihadist ideology, will continue to accelerate thanks to the diffusion of communications technologythe diffusion of communications technology

The revival of Muslim identity around the world, as well as the The revival of Muslim identity around the world, as well as the spread of jihadist ideology, will continue to accelerate thanks to spread of jihadist ideology, will continue to accelerate thanks to the diffusion of communications technologythe diffusion of communications technologythe diffusion of communications technology.the diffusion of communications technology.the diffusion of communications technology.the diffusion of communications technology.

F S i P ibl FFour Scenarios—Possible Futures

There are several ways in which these major global changes could take shape over the next fifteen years. The report presents four distinct scenarios—which are not

There are several ways in which these major global changes could take shape over the next fifteen years. The report presents four distinct scenarios—which are notreport presents four distinct scenarios which are not predictions or alternative outcomes but rather illustrations of how global events might evolve.

report presents four distinct scenarios which are not predictions or alternative outcomes but rather illustrations of how global events might evolve.

They are just some of the possible “futures” one could envision, and they are not mutually exclusive. They are just some of the possible “futures” one could envision, and they are not mutually exclusive.

They are presented in the form of highly fictionalized accounts from the year 2020….They are presented in the form of highly fictionalized accounts from the year 2020….accounts from the year 2020….accounts from the year 2020….

“Davos World” illustrates the impact of robust “Davos World” illustrates the impact of robust economic growth over the next 15 yearseconomic growth over the next 15 yearseconomic growth over the next 15 years,economic growth over the next 15 years,giving globalization a more nongiving globalization a more non--Western face. Western face. Hypothetical letter written on the eve of theHypothetical letter written on the eve of theHypothetical letter written on the eve of the Hypothetical letter written on the eve of the annual Davos meeting in 2020. annual Davos meeting in 2020.

Of all the scenarios, the result is likely to entail Of all the scenarios, the result is likely to entail the fastest shift in the geopolitical landscape. It the fastest shift in the geopolitical landscape. It i d i ld b t li d i ld b t l

Of all the scenarios, the result is likely to entail Of all the scenarios, the result is likely to entail the fastest shift in the geopolitical landscape. It the fastest shift in the geopolitical landscape. It i d i ld b t li d i ld b t lis a dynamic world but an unruly one.is a dynamic world but an unruly one.

Many boats are lifted but some founder TheMany boats are lifted but some founder The

is a dynamic world but an unruly one.is a dynamic world but an unruly one.

Many boats are lifted but some founder TheMany boats are lifted but some founder TheMany boats are lifted, but some founder. The Many boats are lifted, but some founder. The gap between “winners” and “losers” will widen.gap between “winners” and “losers” will widen.Many boats are lifted, but some founder. The Many boats are lifted, but some founder. The gap between “winners” and “losers” will widen.gap between “winners” and “losers” will widen.

The US risks losing its S&T edge to Asia. The US risks losing its S&T edge to Asia. The US risks losing its S&T edge to Asia. The US risks losing its S&T edge to Asia.

“Pax Americana” looks at how US hegemony “Pax Americana” looks at how US hegemony may survive radical changes to the global may survive radical changes to the global political landscape.political landscape. Diary entry of a fictitious Diary entry of a fictitious UN S t G l i 2020UN S t G l i 2020UN Secretary General in 2020.UN Secretary General in 2020.

Key alliances and relationships survive but undergo change. Key alliances and relationships survive but undergo change. Key alliances and relationships survive but undergo change. Key alliances and relationships survive but undergo change. ey a a ces a d e at o s ps su e but u de go c a geey a a ces a d e at o s ps su e but u de go c a geThe US will remain the global leader, but will still be stuck with The US will remain the global leader, but will still be stuck with heavy lifting on security. heavy lifting on security.

ey a a ces a d e at o s ps su e but u de go c a geey a a ces a d e at o s ps su e but u de go c a geThe US will remain the global leader, but will still be stuck with The US will remain the global leader, but will still be stuck with heavy lifting on security. heavy lifting on security.

The US will be required to manage relations with Europe, The US will be required to manage relations with Europe, Asia, Latin America, and the Arab world absent a single Asia, Latin America, and the Arab world absent a single overarching threat on which to build consensus. overarching threat on which to build consensus.

The US will be required to manage relations with Europe, The US will be required to manage relations with Europe, Asia, Latin America, and the Arab world absent a single Asia, Latin America, and the Arab world absent a single overarching threat on which to build consensus. overarching threat on which to build consensus. gg

One challenge will be to manage this polyglot system at a One challenge will be to manage this polyglot system at a cost that is acceptable to the US public. cost that is acceptable to the US public.

gg

One challenge will be to manage this polyglot system at a One challenge will be to manage this polyglot system at a cost that is acceptable to the US public. cost that is acceptable to the US public. p pp pp pp p

“New Caliphate” depicts a global“New Caliphate” depicts a global ideological ideological movement fueled by radical religious identitymovement fueled by radical religious identitymovement fueled by radical religious identity.movement fueled by radical religious identity.Hypothetical letter from a fictional grandson of Hypothetical letter from a fictional grandson of Bin Ladin recounting the struggles of the new Bin Ladin recounting the struggles of the new g ggg ggCaliphate to wrest control from existing regimes.Caliphate to wrest control from existing regimes.

The New Caliphate’s powerful counterThe New Caliphate’s powerful counter--ideology has ideology has widespread appeal, challenging nationwidespread appeal, challenging nation--states in the Muslim states in the Muslim world and putting brake on globalizationworld and putting brake on globalization

The New Caliphate’s powerful counterThe New Caliphate’s powerful counter--ideology has ideology has widespread appeal, challenging nationwidespread appeal, challenging nation--states in the Muslim states in the Muslim world and putting brake on globalizationworld and putting brake on globalizationworld and putting brake on globalization. world and putting brake on globalization.

•• The Caliphate both unites and divides the Muslim world.The Caliphate both unites and divides the Muslim world.

world and putting brake on globalization. world and putting brake on globalization.

•• The Caliphate both unites and divides the Muslim world.The Caliphate both unites and divides the Muslim world.

The scenario heralds a shift from a “war on terror” toward a The scenario heralds a shift from a “war on terror” toward a broader ideological struggle waged across all regions. broader ideological struggle waged across all regions. The scenario heralds a shift from a “war on terror” toward a The scenario heralds a shift from a “war on terror” toward a broader ideological struggle waged across all regions. broader ideological struggle waged across all regions.

“Cycle of Fear” exemplifies the threat from WMD “Cycle of Fear” exemplifies the threat from WMD proliferation and the largeproliferation and the large--scale intrusive security scale intrusive security p gp g yymeasures that might ensue.measures that might ensue. Hypothetical textHypothetical text--message exchanges between two arms dealers.message exchanges between two arms dealers.

The cycle generated by greater spread of WMD and terrorist The cycle generated by greater spread of WMD and terrorist attacks would be hard to break Intrusions of privacy wouldattacks would be hard to break Intrusions of privacy wouldThe cycle generated by greater spread of WMD and terrorist The cycle generated by greater spread of WMD and terrorist attacks would be hard to break Intrusions of privacy wouldattacks would be hard to break Intrusions of privacy wouldattacks would be hard to break. Intrusions of privacy would attacks would be hard to break. Intrusions of privacy would involve huge costs to society. involve huge costs to society. attacks would be hard to break. Intrusions of privacy would attacks would be hard to break. Intrusions of privacy would involve huge costs to society. involve huge costs to society.

An economic meltdown may tempt legitimate businesses An economic meltdown may tempt legitimate businesses and scientists to engage in highly lucrative WMD activity. and scientists to engage in highly lucrative WMD activity. An economic meltdown may tempt legitimate businesses An economic meltdown may tempt legitimate businesses and scientists to engage in highly lucrative WMD activity. and scientists to engage in highly lucrative WMD activity.

The challenge would be to sustain international cooperation The challenge would be to sustain international cooperation as countries are tempted to go it alone. as countries are tempted to go it alone. •• The casualties would be individual liberties andThe casualties would be individual liberties and

The challenge would be to sustain international cooperation The challenge would be to sustain international cooperation as countries are tempted to go it alone. as countries are tempted to go it alone. •• The casualties would be individual liberties andThe casualties would be individual liberties and•• The casualties would be individual liberties and The casualties would be individual liberties and

globalization itself. globalization itself. •• The casualties would be individual liberties and The casualties would be individual liberties and

globalization itself. globalization itself.

Conclusion

We are in a period of unprecedented flux in world affairs, We are in a period of unprecedented flux in world affairs, particularly in contrast to the relative stasis of the Cold War.particularly in contrast to the relative stasis of the Cold War.We are in a period of unprecedented flux in world affairs, We are in a period of unprecedented flux in world affairs, particularly in contrast to the relative stasis of the Cold War.particularly in contrast to the relative stasis of the Cold War.p yp y

The agenda suggested in the report is quite different from that The agenda suggested in the report is quite different from that pursued by political leaders in the U.S. and elsewhere.pursued by political leaders in the U.S. and elsewhere.

p yp y

The agenda suggested in the report is quite different from that The agenda suggested in the report is quite different from that pursued by political leaders in the U.S. and elsewhere.pursued by political leaders in the U.S. and elsewhere.p y pp y p

Many of the trends identified are relative certainties: the Many of the trends identified are relative certainties: the acceleration of globalization, Asia’s rise, the diffusion of acceleration of globalization, Asia’s rise, the diffusion of

p y pp y p

Many of the trends identified are relative certainties: the Many of the trends identified are relative certainties: the acceleration of globalization, Asia’s rise, the diffusion of acceleration of globalization, Asia’s rise, the diffusion of ggtechnologies, etc.technologies, etc.

But even more are key But even more are key ununcertainties: extent of gulf between certainties: extent of gulf between

ggtechnologies, etc.technologies, etc.

But even more are key But even more are key ununcertainties: extent of gulf between certainties: extent of gulf between haves and havehaves and have--nots, whether Asia’s rise is peaceful, etc.nots, whether Asia’s rise is peaceful, etc.

Meeting these challenges will require multilateral Meeting these challenges will require multilateral cooperation, but just because wecooperation, but just because we shouldshould cooperate doescooperate does

haves and havehaves and have--nots, whether Asia’s rise is peaceful, etc.nots, whether Asia’s rise is peaceful, etc.Meeting these challenges will require multilateral Meeting these challenges will require multilateral cooperation, but just because wecooperation, but just because we shouldshould cooperate doescooperate doescooperation, but just because we cooperation, but just because we shouldshould cooperate does cooperate does not mean that we not mean that we willwill do so.do so.cooperation, but just because we cooperation, but just because we shouldshould cooperate does cooperate does not mean that we not mean that we willwill do so.do so.

Summary: The Global LandscapeSummary: The Global LandscapeRelative CertaintiesRelative CertaintiesRelative CertaintiesRelative Certainties Key UncertaintiesKey UncertaintiesKey UncertaintiesKey UncertaintiesRelative CertaintiesRelative CertaintiesGlobalization irreversible, Globalization irreversible, likely to become less likely to become less Westernized. Westernized.

Relative CertaintiesRelative CertaintiesGlobalization irreversible, Globalization irreversible, likely to become less likely to become less Westernized. Westernized.

Key UncertaintiesKey UncertaintiesWhether globalization pulls in lagging Whether globalization pulls in lagging economies; degree to which Asian countries economies; degree to which Asian countries set new rules of the game. set new rules of the game.

Key UncertaintiesKey UncertaintiesWhether globalization pulls in lagging Whether globalization pulls in lagging economies; degree to which Asian countries economies; degree to which Asian countries set new rules of the game. set new rules of the game.

World economy substantially World economy substantially larger. larger. World economy substantially World economy substantially larger. larger. Gaps between “haves” and “haveGaps between “haves” and “have--nots”; nots”;

backsliding by fragile democracies; managing backsliding by fragile democracies; managing or containing financial crisesor containing financial crises

Gaps between “haves” and “haveGaps between “haves” and “have--nots”; nots”; backsliding by fragile democracies; managing backsliding by fragile democracies; managing or containing financial crisesor containing financial crises

Increasing number of global Increasing number of global firms facilitate spread of firms facilitate spread of technologies. technologies.

Increasing number of global Increasing number of global firms facilitate spread of firms facilitate spread of technologies. technologies.

or containing financial crises. or containing financial crises.

Extent to which connectivity challenges Extent to which connectivity challenges governments.governments.

or containing financial crises. or containing financial crises.

Extent to which connectivity challenges Extent to which connectivity challenges governments.governments.

Rise of Asia and advent of Rise of Asia and advent of new economic middle new economic middle powers.powers.

Rise of Asia and advent of Rise of Asia and advent of new economic middle new economic middle powers.powers.

Whether rise of China/India occurs smoothly. Whether rise of China/India occurs smoothly.

Abilit f EU d J t d t lfAbilit f EU d J t d t lf

Whether rise of China/India occurs smoothly. Whether rise of China/India occurs smoothly.

Abilit f EU d J t d t lfAbilit f EU d J t d t lfAging established powers.Aging established powers.

Energy supplies sufficient to Energy supplies sufficient to

Aging established powers.Aging established powers.

Energy supplies sufficient to Energy supplies sufficient to

Ability of EU and Japan to adapt welfare Ability of EU and Japan to adapt welfare systems and integrate migrant populations.systems and integrate migrant populations.

Political instability in producer countries;Political instability in producer countries;

Ability of EU and Japan to adapt welfare Ability of EU and Japan to adapt welfare systems and integrate migrant populations.systems and integrate migrant populations.

Political instability in producer countries;Political instability in producer countries;gy ppgy ppmeet global demand.meet global demand.

gy ppgy ppmeet global demand.meet global demand. Political instability in producer countries; Political instability in producer countries;

supply disruptions.supply disruptions.Political instability in producer countries; Political instability in producer countries; supply disruptions.supply disruptions.

(continued…)(continued…) Summary: The Global LandscapeSummary: The Global LandscapeRelative CertaintiesRelative CertaintiesRelative CertaintiesRelative Certainties Key UncertaintiesKey UncertaintiesKey UncertaintiesKey UncertaintiesGrowing power of nonstate Growing power of nonstate actors. actors. Growing power of nonstate Growing power of nonstate actors. actors.

Whether these actors are accommodated in Whether these actors are accommodated in the international system and its institutions. the international system and its institutions. Whether these actors are accommodated in Whether these actors are accommodated in the international system and its institutions. the international system and its institutions.

Political Islam remains a Political Islam remains a potent force. potent force. Political Islam remains a Political Islam remains a potent force. potent force.

Impact of religiosity on conflict within/between Impact of religiosity on conflict within/between states; growth and spread of jihadist ideology. states; growth and spread of jihadist ideology. Impact of religiosity on conflict within/between Impact of religiosity on conflict within/between states; growth and spread of jihadist ideology. states; growth and spread of jihadist ideology.

Improved WMD capabilities Improved WMD capabilities of some states. of some states.

A f i t bilit iA f i t bilit i

Improved WMD capabilities Improved WMD capabilities of some states. of some states.

A f i t bilit iA f i t bilit i

More or fewer nuclear powers; ability of More or fewer nuclear powers; ability of terrorists to acquire WMD, especially terrorists to acquire WMD, especially biological and nuclear. biological and nuclear.

More or fewer nuclear powers; ability of More or fewer nuclear powers; ability of terrorists to acquire WMD, especially terrorists to acquire WMD, especially biological and nuclear. biological and nuclear.

Arc of instability spanning Arc of instability spanning Middle East, Asia, Africa.Middle East, Asia, Africa.

Environmental and ethicalEnvironmental and ethical

Arc of instability spanning Arc of instability spanning Middle East, Asia, Africa.Middle East, Asia, Africa.

Environmental and ethicalEnvironmental and ethical

Precipitating events leading to overthrow of Precipitating events leading to overthrow of regimes. regimes. Precipitating events leading to overthrow of Precipitating events leading to overthrow of regimes. regimes.

Environmental and ethical Environmental and ethical issues more to the fore.issues more to the fore.

US will remain single mostUS will remain single most

Environmental and ethical Environmental and ethical issues more to the fore.issues more to the fore.

US will remain single mostUS will remain single most

Extent to which new technologies create or Extent to which new technologies create or resolve ethical dilemmas.resolve ethical dilemmas.Extent to which new technologies create or Extent to which new technologies create or resolve ethical dilemmas.resolve ethical dilemmas.

US will remain single most US will remain single most powerful actor. powerful actor. US will remain single most US will remain single most powerful actor. powerful actor. Whether other countries more openly Whether other countries more openly

challenge US; whether US loses S&T edge. challenge US; whether US loses S&T edge. Whether other countries more openly Whether other countries more openly challenge US; whether US loses S&T edge. challenge US; whether US loses S&T edge.