march 2019 political monitor - ipsos · 2019. 3. 21. · march 2019 eoi = -42 58% 20% 16% 6% get...

1Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 1

March 2019

POLITICAL MONITOR


March 2019

VOTING

INTENTIONS

3Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.

Voting Intention: March 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,050 British adults 18+, 15– 19 March 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 733 Margin of

error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a

9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially

important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +1

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +4

38%

34%

8%

7%

4%

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

UKIP

GREEN

36%

35%

8%

7%

4%

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

UKIP

GREEN



Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election


Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in

General Elections

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May 1

5

Jun

15

Jul 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Jun

16

Jul 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Jun

17

Jul 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Oct

17

No

v 1

7

Dec

17

Jan

18

Feb

18

Mar

18

Ap

r 18

May 1

8

Jun

18

Jul 18

Au

g 1

8

Sep

18

Oct

18

No

v 1

8

Dec

18

Jan

19

Feb

19

Corbyn elected

(Sept 15)

May as PM

(July 16)

CONSERVATIVE 38%

LABOUR 34%

GENERAL

ELECTION

%

Mar ‘19


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

04

Ap

r 04

Jul 04

Oct

04

Jan

05

Ap

r 05

Jul 05

Oct

05

Jan

06

Ap

r 06

Jul 06

Oct

06

Jan

07

Ap

r 07

Jul 07

Oct

07

Jan

08

Ap

r 08

Jul 08

Oct

08

Jan

09

Ap

r 09

Jul 09

Oct

09

Jan

10

Ap

r 10

Jul 10

Oct

10

Jan

11

Ap

r 11

Jul 11

Oct

11

Jan

12

Ap

r 12

Jul 12

Oct

12

Jan

13

Ap

r 13

Jul 13

Oct

13

Jan

14

Ap

r 14

Jul 14

Oct

14

Jan

15

Ap

r 15

Jul 15

Oct

15

Jan

16

Ap

r 16

Jul 16

Oct

16

Jan

17

Ap

r 17

Jul 17

Oct

17

Jan

18

Ap

r 18

Jul 18

Oct

18

Jan

19

Miliband elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn elected

(Sept 15)May as PM

(July 16)


Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – March ‘19


Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in

General Elections

Cameron elected

(Dec 05)Brown as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE 38%

LABOUR 34%

UKIP 7%

GREEN 4%

LIB DEM 8%

GENERAL

ELECTION

%

Mar ‘19


March 2019

SATISFACTION

WITH GOVERNMENT

AND PARTY

LEADERS


Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn The GovernmentVince Cable

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB.

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: March 2019


Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and

% “dissatisfied”

70%

10%

20%

42%

34%

24%

DISSATISFIED

DON’T KNOW

SATISFIED

-5.5% SWING FROM FEB 2019 +2.5% SWING FROM FEB 2019 -0.5% SWING FROM FEB 2019 -13% SWING FROM FEB 2019

NET=-50 NET=-18 NET=-75NET=-36

65%

6%

29%

11%

3%

86

%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE

LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY?.

Satisfaction with Party leaders September 2015 – March 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Ju

n 1

7

Ju

l 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Oct

17

No

v 1

7

Dec

17

Jan

18

Feb

18

Mar

18

Ap

r 18

May 1

8

Ju

n 1

8

Ju

l 18

Au

g 1

8

Sep

18

Oct

18

No

v 1

8

Dec

18

Jan

19

Feb

19

2016 EU Ref

% satisfied

MAY 29%

CORBYN 20%

CABLE 24%

GENERAL

ELECTION

March ‘19


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019)

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

MAY

CAMERON

BROWN

MAJOR

BLAIR

THATCHER

NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

NET S

ATIS

FA

CTIO

N

May

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?.

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019)

Corbyn

NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER

NET S

ATIS

FA

CTIO

N

CORBYN

BLAIR

SMITH

KINNOCK

MILLIBAND

FOOT

CAMERON

DUNCAN-SMITH

HAGUE

HOWARD




HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?

Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019)

Theresa May’s Government

NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT

NET S

ATIS

FA

CTIO

N

MAY’S GOV

BLAIR’S GOV

MAJOR’S GOV

CAMERON’S GOV

THATCHER’S GOV

BROWN’S GOV




ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.

Theresa May


March 2019 August 2016 – March 2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec-

17

Feb

-18

Ap

r-18

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-18

Dec-

18

Feb

-19

65% Dissatisfied

6% Don’t know

29% Satisfied

NET = -36

Satisfaction

DISSATISFIED 65%

SATISFIED 29%

%

Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.

Theresa May

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 324 Conservative supporters 18+ 15-19 March 2019

March 2019 August 2016 – March 2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec-

17

Feb

-18

Ap

r-18

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-18

Dec-

18

Feb

-19

32% Dissatisfied

5% Don’t know

63% Satisfied

NET = +31

DISSATISFIED 32%

SATISFIED 63%

Satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters

%


Jeremy Corbyn


March 2019 September 2015 – March 2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-

16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar-

19

.

SATISFIED 20%

DISSATISFIED 70%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.

NET = -50

Satisfaction

70% Dissatisfied

10% Don’t know

20% Satisfied

%



Jeremy Corbyn

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 262 Labour supporters 18+ 15-19 March 2019


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-

16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar-

19

.

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.

NET = +2

Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters

40% Dissatisfied

18% Don’t know

42% Satisfied

SATISFIED 42%

DISSATISFIED 40%

%


Vince Cable



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec-

17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar-

18

Ap

r-18

May-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec-

18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar-

19

DISSATISFIED 42%

SATISFIED 24%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.

NET = -18

42% Dissatisfied

34% Don’t know

24% Satisfied

Satisfaction

%



March 2019

ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Dec-

07

Ap

r-08

Au

g-0

8

Dec-

08

Ap

r-09

Au

g-0

9

Dec-

09

Ap

r-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May-1

1

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May-1

2

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May-1

3

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May-1

4

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Oct

-15

Feb

-16

Jun

-16

Oct

-16

Feb

-17

Jul-

17

Jan

-18

Jun

-18

Dec-

18

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE

OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.

Economic Optimism Index


March 2019

EOI = -42

58%20%

16%

6%

GET WORSE

STAY THE SAME

Don’t know

GET BETTER

Stay the same

Get worse

Improve

%

January 2007 – March 2019


Mar-

19

Mar ‘19


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE

OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.

Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2019


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan

1998

Oct

1998

Jul 1999

Ap

r 2000

Jan

2001

Oct

2001

Jul 2002

Ap

r 2003

Jan

2004

Oct

2004

Jul 2005

Ap

r 2006

Jan

2007

Oct

2007

Jul 2008

Ap

r 2009

Jan

2010

Oct

2010

Jul 2011

Ap

r 2012

Jan

2013

Oct

2013

Jul 2014

Ap

r 2015

Jan

2016

Oct

2016

Jul 2017

Ap

r 2018

Jan

2019

NET OPTIMISM=-42

Mar

2019

Mar ‘19


March 2019

BREXIT


Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month

Britain’s economy over

26%

38%

26%

27%

15%

9%

13%

11%

49%

49%

55%

59%

May 2016

July 2016

Dec 2018

Mar 2019

39%

55%

45%

49%

11%

11%

10%

9%

35%

24%

34%

34%

May 2016

July 2016

Dec 2018

Mar 2019

the next five years

Britain’s economy over

the next ten to

twenty years

NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED

TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION,

TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK

IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR

XXX, OR WILL IT MAKE NO

DIFFERENCE?

The impact of

Brexit on the

economy

BETTER WORSEMAKES NO DIFFERENCE


NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER OR

WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults 18+

WORSE 39%

BETTER 27%

MAKE NO

DIFFERENCE 31%

21%

18%20%

18% 18%

36%

49%

37% 36%

43%41%

39%

24%

40% 41%

32%

37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec-

17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar-

18

Ap

r-18

May-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec-

18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar-

19

Impact of Brexit Own standards of living

Mar ‘19

V V V V



Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month

Britain’s ability to make

59%

59%

55%

58%

15%

16%

17%

12%

20%

21%

24%

25%

May 2016

July 2016

Dec 2018

Mar 2019

47%

51%

24%

20%

22%

21%

Dec 2018

Mar 2019

decisions in its own best

Britain’s control over

immigration from the

EU

NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED

TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION,

TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK

IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR

XXX, OR WILL IT MAKE NO

DIFFERENCE?

The impact of

Brexit on Britain’s

sovereignty

BETTER WORSEMAKES NO DIFFERENCE

interests


Confidence in May to get a good Brexit deal for Britain


Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month

* In December 2018 the question was posed as ‘has got a good deal’’’

NOT CONFIDENT 79%

CONFIDENT 18%

44%

36% 35%37%

34%30%

25%28%

19%

23% 21%

51%

60% 60%59%

63%67%

72%70%

78%

69%

77%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec-

17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar-

18

Ap

r-18

May-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec-

18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar-

19

Mar ‘19

PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN

NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?.

c


67%

73%

66%67%

56%

47%45%

34%

39%36%

33%

26%

30% 32%

43%

51% 53%

64%

54%

62%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec-

17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar-

18

Ap

r-18

May-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec-

18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar-

19

PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN

NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?.

Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 350 Conservative party supporters each month

* In December 2018 the question was posed as ‘has got a good deal’,

NOT CONFIDENT 60%

CONFIDENT 37%

Among Conservative supporters

Mar ‘19


Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults, circa 300 Labour party supporters 18+ each month

29%

33%

28%

21%

67%

63%

67%

76%

July 2017

Mar 2018

Sep 2018

Mar 2019

AND IF JEREMY CORBYN WAS PRIME

MINISTER, HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL,

WOULD YOU BE THAT HE WOULD GET A

GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS

WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?

Confidence in Corbyn

to get a good deal

for Britain

CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT

GENERAL PUBLIC

57%

63%

59%

49%

40%

33%

39%

46%

July 2017

Mar 2018

Sep 2018

Mar 2019

AMONG LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS



DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE

FOLLOWING HAS DONE A

GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT

HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT

FROM THE EUROPEAN

UNION?

c

Handling Britain’s

exit from the

European Union

27%

32%

30%

9%

36%

56%

65%

85%

GOOD JOB BAD JOB

THE GOVERNMENT

THERESA MAY

THE EUROPEAN UNION

YOUR LOCAL MP



Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union


THERESA MAY

-11%

-20% -16%-27%

-16%

16%

9%

-20%

-23%

-7%

26% 23%

32%

41%

67%

50%

31%

51%

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Mar ‘19

DO YOU THINK XXX HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION?

c

NO

V ‘16

DEC

‘16

MA

R ‘17

JUL ‘17

MA

R ‘18

MA

R ‘19

NET GOOD JOB

AMONG CONSERVATIVES 19%

THE GOVERNMENT

AMONG CONSERVATIVES -56%

THERESA MAY -35%

THE GOVERNMENT -76%

Base: c. 1,000 British adults, circa 300 Conservative party supporters 18+ each month


)

32%

16%

10%

9%

29%

3%

AND HOW STRONGLY, IF AT ALL,

WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR

OPPOSE A DELAY OF UP TO XXX

IN BRITAIN’S DEPARTURE FROM

THE EU, IF AN AGREEMENT ON

THE TERMS OF BRITAIN’S EXIT

FROM THE EU IS NOT REACHED

BY THE 29TH OF MARCH?


TEND TO SUPPORT


Delaying Britain’s

departure from

the EU

STRONGLY SUPPORT

NEITHER SUPPORT NOR

OPPOSE

TEND TO OPPOSE

STRONGLY OPPOSE

DON’T KNOW

THREE

MONTHS

24%

10%

5%

8%

50%

3%

TWO

YEARS

48% SUPPORT

38%OPPOSE

34% SUPPORT

58%OPPOSE


)


*

2%

6%

10%

23%

23%

28%

32%

35%

48%

.

AND IF BRITAIN AND OTHER

EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS FAIL

TO REACH AN AGREEMENT ON

THE NEW TERMS OF BRITAIN’S

FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE

EU BY THE TIME BRITAIN LEAVES,

WHICH TWO OR THREE OF THE

FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU

THINK WILL BE THE MOST TO

BLAME?

%

+13

+4 +1p

+5 +1p

-7 -3q

+4

+9

-

-1

-3

-1

CHANGE SINCE DEC ‘18:

Position

EUROPEAN UNION

CONSERVATIVE MPS

THE UK GOVERNMENT

BREXIT CAMPAIGNERS

THE LABOUR PARTY

REMAIN CAMPAIGNERS

OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES

OTHER

NO-ONE

DON’T KNOW

Attributing blame

in the case of a

no deal Brexit



October 2018Ipsos MORIMarch 2019 Political Monitor

Gideon Skinner

Research Director

[email protected]

Glenn Gottfried

Research Manager

[email protected]

For more information

march 2019 political monitor - ipsos · 2019. 3. 21. · march 2019 eoi = -42 58% 20% 16% 6% get...

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