1

SystemiQ Ltd

160921 A Circular Economy Roadmap for Finland

Prof. Dr. Martin R. Stuchtey

SITRA

2

Paradigm crisis?

SOURCE: Thomas Kuhn, Structure of a Scientific Revolution (1964) 1

3

Out of steam …

6SOURCE: Insee, Statistisches Bundesamt, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

80751960 7065 10

6

2000950

-6

2015059085

2

-2

4

-4

8

Germany

USA

France

4.8%

3.2%2.7%

2.5%

1.3%

4

Growing together

… diverging …

“The Great Divergence”

500

400

300

200

100

80 959085 201005

Median family income

2000

Global GPI per capita

Private employment

Real GDP per capita

Labor productivity

50 55 751947 60 65 70

U.S. labor productivity, GDP per capita, employment, median income, and Global GPI per capita

Indexed to 1947

2SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Brynjolfsson and McAfee , Kubiszewski et al. (2013)

5

… and exposed.

4SOURCE: UNEP (2011)

100

0

50

Metabolic rate, t/cap/yr

GDP per capita, Constant year 2000 US$

Africa

Europe

North America

West Asia

Latin America and Caribbean

Asia and Pacific

Mongolia

Mauritania

Somalia

DR

Congo

Afghanistan

Burundi

ComorosEquatorial Guinea

Gabon

Puerto Rica

French Polynesia

Switzerland

Japan

Norway

Bahamas

Great Britain

Denmark

Sweden

GermanyFranceItaly

Brunei Darussalam

IsraelBelgium

Finland Iceland

USACanada

Ireland

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Australia

New Zealand

New CaledoniaKuwait

Greece

Cyprus

SpainPortugal

Saudi ArabiaArgentina

SloveniaUruguay

Estonia

Malaysia

Poland

Hungary

Libya

MaltaOman

Mexico

Sierra

LeoneBangladesh Timor-Leste

Yemen Congo

Sri LankaAngola

HaitiGambiaRwanda

Liberia

MyanmarCambodia

MalawiTajikistan

Guinea-Bissau

Niger

Ethiopia

Eritrea

Nepal

ChadMali Togo

Kenya

India

Cote d'Ivoire

Armenia

Georgia

Central African Republic

Ghana

Guinea

Senegal

Zimbabwe

Sudan

Lesotho

Uzbekistan

Ukraine

Turkmenistan

Indonesia

NicaraguaHonduras

Philippines

CameroonCape Verde

Samoa

Iraq

MoroccoAlgeria

El Salvador

EgyptAlbania

China

Serbia

BelarusCuba

Swaziland

Peru

Thailand

Dominican Republic

Latvia

LithuaniaPanama

Turkey

Namibia

RussiaBolivia

Kazakhstan

Paraguay

Papua New Guinea

Guyana

Chile

Suriname

South Africa

Brazil

Mauritius

Croatia

Lebanon

R2 = 0.60

50 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

6

Last June, at the European Commission in Brussels

"I passionately believe in the opportunities of

the circular economy. The future is not

making things with finite components."

Frans Timmermans, EU Commission First

Vice President

"I am very impressed by the findings of

Growth Within report, looking forward to

developing our shared agenda"

Karmenu Vella, EU Commissionner

Environment, Maritime Affairs and Fisheries

"Circular economy will be a similar mega

trend in economy as globalisation. I'm

convinced that the circular economy can

enable a triple win: economic, environmental

and social."

Jyrki Katainen - EU Vice President Jobs,

Growth, Investment and Competitiveness

7

A vision for an economy that reconciles planet and prosperity

3

Circular material backbone

▪ Reducing waste in our largest

systems recognized as a major

source of wealth and improved

environmental performance

▪ Focus on mobility, food, housing, as

these three systems represent 70-80

per cent of all resource use

▪ Cities play major role in all the three

largest systems of mobility, food,

housing

▪ Shift to renewable energy sources

(hydro, solar, wind, biomass, …)

▪ Abundant cheap clean energy

recognized as a key driver of

economic growth

Net positive norm ▪ Company norm of net positive impact across manufactured, natural and human capital

▪ ‘Good’ – not ‘less bad’

▪ Initially a voluntary norm, over time supported by formal externality pricing in more and more areas

Abundant clean energy High-productivity systems

▪ Clear separation between biological

and technical materials

– Biological materials consumed,

then returned safely to biosphere

– Technical materials re-used many

times (not consumed)

▪ Use of virgin finite materials radically

lower than today

▪ Large secondary material industry

and market

▪ A well-kept bank of materials that

circulate many times in the economy

seen as a competitive advantage for

a country

8

… based on circular economy principles

SOURCE: Ellen MacArthur Foundation (2013)

Comprehensive, ambitious, inclusive.

10

Finland – championing again?

1

The narrative to rally people behind the transition to a circular economy in Finland needs to include more than

the resource efficiency benefits. It must relevant to the social reality of lives.

The overall Roadmap to a Circular Economy for Finland has a very high ambition level, however it requires a

stronger implementation mechanism.

A measuring and evaluation system needs to be set up that incorporates all relevant dimensions. The

circular economy, properly applied may be a central tool to drive the Inclusive Wealth Index (IWI).

The transition must be managed carefully. Businesses and assets most at risk should be identified early on,

transitional planning and support mechanisms should be defined in order to mitigate resistance.

Strengthen the international dimension, in order to accelerate the transition and ensure the relevance to

the export sector.

Finally, let the young generation own the program. Your ambition is nothing less than a fundamental

redesign of the industrial platform and you should deeply involve (school and university) students.

Integrate the digital and circular economy agenda in Finland as some of the largest opportunities

come with virtualization, web-based sharing and intelligent assets.