may 15s21.q4cdn.com/700333554/files/doc_presentations/...sharon dowdall chief legal officer h. geoff...
TRANSCRIPT
Analyst DayMay 15th
2
Cautionary Statement
Certain information contained in this Presentation, including any information as to our strategy, plans or future financial or operating performance and other statements that express management's expectations or estimates of future performance, constitute "forward-looking statements". In addition, statements relating to “reserves” or “resources” are forward-looking statements, as they involve implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the resources and reserves described can be profitably produced in the future. Original oil in place (“OOIP”) is also a forward-looking statement, and there are numerous uncertainties inherent in estimating OOIP and no assurance can be given that the level of OOIP or its recovery will be realized. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements. The words "believe", "expect", "will", “potential”, "anticipate", "contemplate", "target", "plan", "continue', "budget", "may", "intend", "estimate", “likely” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by management, are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. The Company cautions the reader that such forward- looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual financial results, performance or achievements of Franco-Nevada to be materially different from the Company's estimated future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by those forward-looking statements and the forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. These risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to: adverse fluctuations in the prices of the primary commodities that drive the Company’s royalty revenue (gold, platinum group metals, copper, nickel, oil and gas); adverse fluctuations in the value of the Canadian and Australian dollar, and any other currency in which the Company generates revenue, relative to the U.S. dollar; changes in national and local government legislation, including taxation policies; regulations and political or economic developments in any of the countries where the company holds interests in mineral and oil and gas properties; influence of macroeconomic developments; business opportunities that become available to, or are pursued by us; reduced access to debt and equity capital; litigation; title disputes related to our interests or any of the properties underlying the Royalty Portfolio; operating or technical difficulties on any of the properties underlying the Royalty Portfolio; risks and hazards associated with the business of development and production on any of the properties underlying the Royalty Portfolio, including, but not limited to unusual or unexpected geological formations, cave-ins, flooding and other natural disasters or civil unrest. The forward-looking statements contained in this Presentation are based upon assumptions management believes to be reasonable, including, without limitation, the ongoing operation of the properties underlying the Royalty Portfolio by the owners or operators of such properties in a manner consistent with past practice, the accuracy of public statements and disclosures made by the owners or operators of such underlying properties, no material adverse change in the market price of the commodities that underlie the Royalty Portfolio, and any other factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. However, there can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Franco-Nevada cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements and readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty therein. For additional information with respect to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, please also refer to the “Risk Factors” sections of our most recent Annual Information Form filed with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities on www.sedar.com, as well as our Annual MD&A. The forward-looking statements herein are made as of the date of this Presentation only and Franco-Nevada does not assume any obligation to update or revise them to reflect new information, estimates or opinions, future events or results or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
3
Management Title Canada David Harquail President & CEO Sharon Dowdall Chief Legal Officer H. Geoff Waterman Chief Operating Officer Paul Brink S.V.P. Business Development Jason O’Connell Associate, Investor Relations & Business Development Debbie McEnaney Controller Cindy Smith Land Analyst Donna Andrejek Office Manager – Toronto U.S. Steven Aaker Chief of U.S. Operations Alex Morrison Chief Financial Officer Steve Alfers VP, US Legal and Business Development Pam Saxton VP, Finance U.S. Operations Edward Jackson Director of Mineral Lands Katie Griffith Land Administrator Robert Eckles Office Manager - Denver Australia Kevin McElligott Managing Director, Australian Operations
4
Agenda
Key Points – David Harquail– Steve Aaker
Q1 Results – Alex Morrison
Oil & Gas Segment – Geoff Waterman
5
Franco-Nevada – The First 5 Months
Dec 20, 2007 - C$1.2B IPO
- Acquisition of assets
- TSX listing
Dec 30, 2007 - Repayment of bank credit facility
January 2008 - Bedding down of new company
Feb 22, 2008 - Signed bought deal to raise net C$256m
March 28, 2008 - Annual filings
May 12, 2008 - Q1 filings and dividend declaration
“A Star is Born”
6
Dividend Declaration
Start of semi-annual dividends with initial Cdn$0.12 per share to be paid on June 23rd.
7
Vision and Business Model
Vision• Franco-Nevada is a resource royalty and investment company
dedicated to the sustainable maximization of per share values
Business Model• Royalty and investment focus – not operating• Gold focus but opportunistic for all resources• Grow and manage a diversified, high margin portfolio with low
overheads• Focus on NAV accretion per share• Continually build financial strength• No hedging
8
Our Business Model Strengths
Simple non-operating business No material operating or capex challenges
Leading operators Barrick, Goldcorp, EnCana, Xstrata, etc.
Geopolitically secure Mostly US, Canada, Australia
Gold focus with diversification Gold, PGM, O&G, Base Metals
Balanced profile Producing assets, projects and exploration
Quality assets Goldstrike, Stillwater, Oil & Gas
9
The Benefits of a Royalty Structure
Franco-Nevada Operators Explorers ETF Bullion
Exposure to:
Discovery potential X X
Production X X X
Expansion potential X X X
Acquisition potential X X X
Metal price appreciation Reduced exposure to:
Capital costs X X
Operating costs X X
Environmental X X
10
Royalty Types & Advantages
• Revenue-based Royalty (NSR/ORR)– Limited exposure to operating or capital costs
• Profit-based Royalty (NPI)– Exposure to, but no funding of, operating or capital costs
• Advantages:– Your first dollar is your last– Easy to administer and grow– Management can focus on growth– Exploration upside is free
11
Pipeline of Future Royalties
• ~145 mineral exploration properties• ~100,000 acres of W. Canada mineral lands• ~1.1 Tcf Arctic Gas resource
• ~15 mineral projects under development or advanced exploration
• Growing royalties and new projects
• Operators continue to invest in exploration and development
• Sources of stable historical cash flow
Pipeline of Producing, Development and Exploration Assets
12
Recent Pipeline News
Hemlo (Interlake)
- 3% NSR + 50% NPI - Teck-Cominco publicly reporting mining of Interlake property could begin in 2009 subject to ongoing in-fill drilling
Rosemont - 1.5% NSR - Potential $165m investment by Silver Wheaton to fund construction
Perama Hill - 2% NSR - Takeover bid by Eldorado Gold
Detour Gold - 2% NSR - Four drills are reported to be active and a new resource estimate expected end of Q2
Tasiast - 2% NSR - Royalty pays beyond 600,000 ounces. Redback reports production, resource and reserve expansion
Pandora - 5% NPI - Operator expects some royalty payments in 2008
Duketon - 2% NSR - Operator is reporting a 3.5 million ounce resource
13
Strategic Growth Options
Acquire Existing Royalties
Create New Royalties
Precious Metals Streams
Non-Operating JV Interests
Owning and Converting Properties / Resources
Presentation on Q1 Results
Alex Morrison
15
Commodity Prices
Gold / oz(London PM fix)
Platinum / oz (London PM fix)
Palladium / oz (London PM fix)
Oil / bbl (Edmonton Light)
Gas / mcf (AECO-C)
Average Spot - First 9 months 2007 December 31, 2007 Spot Average 1Q Spot
$370
$837
$1,529
$1,877
$930
$444
$93.92
$98.18
$6.30
$7.54
$666
$1,256
$353
$68.19
$5.90
↑11%
↑23%↑20%
↑5%
↑20%
↑26% ↑22%
↑5%
↑38%
↑7%
16
Q1 Revenues -
$27.5m
Revenue based72%
Profit based17%
Working interest
10%
Other1%
Mostly revenue based royalties with precious metals focus that are geopolitically secure
By Commodity By RegionBy Royalty Type
17
Portfolio Highlights
• Commodity prices – higher across the board
• Contribution from Stillwater - South Africa power shortage drove up Pt/Pd prices sharply
• Ramp up in production at Cerro San Pedro
• First gold pour at Mesquite
• Increased production from royalty ground at Marigold
• North Lanut experiencing higher than reserve grades
18
Quarterly Variance
• Q1 revenues do not include contributions from:
– Falcondo dividends – no set schedule for payments
– Robinson payments – expected to exceed production thresholds
– Pandora payments – made annually in Q4
– Kasese – no set schedule for payments
• Goldstrike waste stripping in Q1 – expect revenue back- ended for 2008
• Weyburn impacted by facilities issues in Q1 2008
19
Revenue –
by Royalty
Goldstrike -NSR
Goldstrike -NPI
Marigold
OtherStillwater
Midale
Edson
Weyburn
Other
GoldPGMsOil & GasBase Metals & Other
20
Revenue –
by RoyaltyRevenue - Quarter Ended March 31, 2008(US$ thousands)
Property Interest Operator RevenueGold
Goldstrike - NSR NSR 2% to 4% Barrick Gold 3,588$ Goldstrike - NPI NPI 2.4% to 6% Barrick Gold 4,642 Marigold NSR 1.75% to 5% Barrick Gold/Goldcorp 1,438 Bald Mountain NSR 1 to 4% Barrick Gold 402 Cerro San Pedro GR 1.95% Metallica Resources 359 Mesquite NSR 0.5% to 2% Western Goldfields 182 North Lanut NSR 5% Avocet Mining 647 Eskay Creek NSR 1% Barrick Gold 149 Mouska GR 2% IAMGOLD 193 New Celebration NSR 1.75% Dioro Exploration 59 Henty ORR 1% & 10% Barrick Gold 119 Holloway/Holt NSR 2 to 10% St Andrew Goldfields 103 Bronzewing NSR 1% View Resources 166 Other Various Various Various 118
12,165 PGMs
Stillwater NSR 5% Stillwater Mining 4,054 Base Metals
Robinson NSR and Other 0.225% and other Quadra Mining 261 Mt. Keith NPI 0.25% BHP Billiton 15
276 Other
Eagle Picher Other Other EP Minerals 83 Commodore Other Other Millmerran Partners 22
105 Oil and Gas
Edson ORR 15% Canadian Natural Resources 4,292 Weyburn WI/ORR 1.11037%/0.441% EnCana O&G Partnership 2,830 Midale WI/ORR 1.59374%/0.972% Apache Canada 1,082 Other Various Various Various 2,652
10,856 Dividends
Newmont Common shares 896,210 - 92
27,548$
21
Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow*
$23,37385%
Cost of Operations
$1,8006% G&A
$2,1058%
Business Development
$2701%
* Non-GAAP financial measure. See our definition in our MD&A available at www.franco-nevada.com
Percentages refer to percent of revenueAmounts in US$000s
22
Free Cash Flow
Operating income $ 6,783
Depletion and depreciation 15,537
Stock-based compensation expense 1,053
Free Cash Flow* $ 23,373
* Non-GAAP financial measure. See our definition in our MD&A available at www.franco-nevada.com
Amounts in US$000s
23
Costs of Operations
Total Cost of Operations- $1,800
Amounts in US$000s
24
EBITDA and FCF
• Results
– Q1 FCF* $23,373 or 85% of revenue
– Q1 EBITDA* $23,280 or 85% of revenue
• Available leverage of existing personnel levels and G&A
* Non-GAAP financial measure. See our definition in our MD&A available at www.franco-nevada.com
Amounts in US$000s
25
Depletion and Depreciation
• Units of production method used for oil and gas and minerals
• Purchase price allocation to be completed in Q3
26
Income Taxes
• Cash taxes – Q1 current taxes 19% of pre-tax income
• Effective tax rate – Q1 - 33%
• Three distinct country components
– Canada – some assets have nominal tax values
• For all producing assets book value = tax value
– US – initial book value = tax value
– Australia – no depletion for tax purposes
27
Interest Expense
• Expense components– Standby fee for Credit Facility ~ $130,000 per quarter
@ current leverage ratio– Amortization of credit facility expenses - $2.1m being
amortized over 3 years on a straight line basis
28
Capital Structure
At March 31, 2008:• 100.3 million common shares outstanding
• 2.775 million stock options outstanding at exercise prices between C$15.20 and C$19.22
• 5.75 million warrants exercisable @ C$32 until 3/13/2012
29
Liquidity and Capital Resources
Cash & cash equivalents
$202m
Credit facility$150m
Publicly quoted
marketable securities
$42m
Short-term investments
$75m
$468.4 million at March 31, 2008
30
Investment Policy
• Currently 100% government backed securities• Managed by Beutel Goodman• Key Parameters
– 70%:30% US$:C$ investment split– 100% maturity < 1 year– Currently hold no corporate issuers
31
Capital Resources
• Full Credit facility of US$150 million available• Current costs of advances
– [US fl – 6.125% (BMO Base rate + 0.125%)
– Cana – 5.125% (BMO Prime rate +0.125%)
• Subject to 0.3% standby fee on undrawn balances
Presentation on Oil & Gas Segment
Geoff Waterman
33
Oil and Gas
• Diversified asset portfolio with long reserve lives
• ORR drilling at no cost to Franco-Nevada
• Reserves and production have increased over time
• High prices drive technology that increase recoveries
• Large land base available for farm out
• Arctic Gas is a ‘gold nugget’ waiting to be mined
34
Oil and Gas -
Producing
• Over 100 royalty and/or working interests in oil and natural gas properties covering >5,000 wells
• ~87% of revenues from the oil and gas royalties from Edson Property, Weyburn Unit, Midale Unit, Medicine Hat Consolidated Unit No.1 and Tidewater Interests
• Long-life, low-decline in proved plus probable reserves of 7.8 MMboe for these properties and 8.6 MMboe for all producing interests
Edson
Medicine Hat
Tidewater
Weyburn
Unit
Midale
Unit
35
Oil and Gas -
Reserves
• Total assessments conducted in 1999 and 2007• Interim assessments do not cover all producing assets• GLJ Petroleum Consultants (12/31/2007, 12 yr. RLI)
– 5,996 mboe proved– 2,631 mboe probable– 8,627 mboe of P+P reserves
• McDaniel & Associates (10/01/1999, 11 yr. RLI)– 3,422 mboe proved– 2,701 mboe probable– 6,123 P+P reserves
• In this 8 year period 5,808 mboe’s were produced
RLI = Reserve Life Index
36
Oil and Gas -
Reserves
• 1999 (McDaniel’s) – 6,123 mboe, (P + P)
• 2007 (GLJ) – 8,627 mboe, (P + P)
• 5,808 mboe produced during period
• 8,312 mboe added during period – 6,569 mboe at no cost (ORR)
• Predicted declines not occurring
37
Oil and Gas –
2007 Reserves
38
Oil and Gas –
2007 Reserves
P + P Reserves (mboe)
2,560
1
2,312
3,022
690
42
ORR WI
Gas Oil NGL
39
Significant 5: Reserves and Production
Reserves (mboe)
2,827
5,216 5,284 5,2075,494 5,3305,365
8,3629,104
7,1167,683 7,827
1999 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007
Proved Probable P + P
40
Edson
• Liquids rich gas play 209 km. west of Edmonton, AB• 15% ORR over 26,560 gross acres• Prices received based on AECO-C spot prices less
processing cost of $20/103m3
• Wells drilled at no cost to Franco-Nevada• Increasing reserves and production• RLI: 8 years• Operator:
41
Edson: Reserves and Production
Reserves (mboe)
581
1,842
2,1481,953
1,815 1,734
763
2,361
3,806
2,432 2,395 2,525
1999 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007
Proved Probable P + P
Production (mboe)
202179 171
234
271 267
354 365
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
42
Weyburn
Unit
• Unitized oil play 129 km. southeast of Regina, SK• Oil is medium sour (28 to 31 degree API, approximately
2% sulphur)• 1.11% non-operated working interest and 0.44% royalty
interest• $10 to $15/bbl differential to Edmonton Light posted price• 2000 began operating on CO2 miscible flood• CO2 flood rolled out to ~60% of unit• CO2 flood and infill drilling has increased production 65%• RLI: 21 years• Operator:
43
Weyburn:
Reserves and Production
44
Midale
Unit
• Unitized oil play 40 km southeast of Weyburn, SK• Oil is medium sour (28 to 31 degree API, approximately
2% sulphur)• 1.59% non-operated working interest and 0.97% royalty
interest• $10 to $15/bbl differential to Edmonton Light posted price• CO2 injection began in 2005, over 10 patterns operating,
41 patterns by 2010• CO2 injection over next 20 years to assist in recovery of an
additional 45-60 mmbbl (1.2-1.5 mmbbl net to FN)• RLI: 16 years• Operator:
45
Midale: Reserves and Production
Reserves (mboe)does not include additional recovery of
1.2-1.5 mmbbl
418
749 725670 634 630618
1,5221,427
1,045936 975
1999 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007
Proved Probable P + P
CO2
46
Medicine Hat
• Dry sweet gas play 257 km. southeast of Calgary, AB• 2.3% ORR in Medicine Hat Consolidated Unit No. 1• Prices received based on AECO-C spot prices less minor
processing cost• RLI: 10 years• Operator:
47
Medicine Hat: Reserves and Production
Reserves (mboe)
523
590
430
363
425401
675
775
553
446
527 509
1999 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007
Proved Probable P + P
48
Tidewater
• FNV holds a 56.13% interest in Saskatchewan Gulf Securities Tidewater Royalty
• 2.5% ORR over 28,900 gross acres across southern Saskatchewan
• Royalty administrated by Computershare• Net ORR: 1.4%• Medium sour oil and some solution gas from unit and non-
unit production• RLI: 12 Years• Various operators (Talisman, Pemoco and Canetic
account for 80%)
49
Tidewater: Reserves and Production
Reserves (mboe)
351 342
311 303 292272
426 418
374352 341
321
1999 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007
Proved Probable P + P
50
Oil and Gas –
Non Producing
Non Producing• 11,000 net acres of unproved non producing land under lease• Own petroleum and natural gas rights on ~100,000 acres which are
available for farm out
51
Oil & Gas –
Non Producing
Arctic Gas• ~9% working interest in certain gas
fields in the Canadian Arctic
• Discovered by Panarctic Oils between 1969 and 1986
• > 130 wells drilled at cost of ~CDN$254 million
• Resources: 1,140 BCF (net to FNV)
• Economic models based on production of 1 bcf/d over 20 years
• Possible supply for Petro-Canada’s Gros Cacouna LNG terminal planned for Quebec
• LNG supply for Europe and Asia
51
Drake FieldHecla Field
52
Oil and Gas -
Conclusion
• Diversified asset portfolio with long reserve lives
• ORR drilling at no cost to Franco-Nevada
• Reserves and production have increased over time
• High prices drive technology that increase recoveries
• Large land base available for farm out
• Arctic Gas is a ‘gold nugget’ waiting to be mined
Analyst Day Q&A