Measuring (and Managing) the Costs of

Student AttritionNate JohnsonPostsecondary Analytics423 East Virginia StreetTallahassee, Florida 32301

State Policy Workshop: State Higher Education

Executive OfficersChicago, August 8, 2012www.postsecondaryanalytics.com

@NateJohnsonFL

About the Cost of Attrition Project

• Initiative of the Delta Project on Postsecondary Education Costs, Productivity, & Accountability

• Work undertaken by Jane Wellman, Donna Desrochers, Colleen Lenihan, Patricia Steele, Nate Johnson

• Funded through a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

• Research and consultations took place 2010-2011• Delta Project now housed at the American

Institutes for Research

Questions We Sought to Answer

• What is attrition? • How should it be defined for public policy?• How should we talk about it?• How much does higher education spend on

students who do not finish?• What are the most helpful ways to

disaggregate attrition costs?• How can better understanding of attrition

and costs improve policy and practice?

Defining Attrition• Alternative focus to graduation, but not

mirror image• Intentionally conservative definition of

“attrition”

Six-Year Same-Institution Attrition Rates = 61%

Only 39% of new postsecondary students complete within six years at the same institution where they started

More Conservative Definition of Attrition = 35%

Completed at first institution attended: 38.8%

Did not complete anywhere, no longer enrolled: 35.5%

Completed at another institution: 10.6%

Still enrolled: 15%

Students who, within six years…

Defining Costs• Beginning Postsecondary Students

2004/09 restricted use data• Linked each student to institution-level

IPEDS data• Calculated expenditures per FT student

(Delta Project “Education and Related Expenditures”)

• Calculated cumulative cost for each student

Costs for Students With and Without Degrees

Left

after

<1 y

r

Certifi

cate

Left

1-2 y

ears

Left

2-3 y

ears

Assoc

iate's

Left

3-4 y

ears

Left

4+ ye

ars

Bache

lor's

$8,800 $16,100 $17,400

$29,400 $33,900

$42,000 $47,100

$53,800 Mean Cumulative E&R Expenditures

Proportions of Outcomes and Costs Differ

Certifi

cate

Assoc

iate's

Bache

lor's

No deg

ree

Still

enro

lled

9% 9%

31%35%

15%

5%10%

51%

19%15%

% of Outcomes % of Costs

Outcomes and Cumulative Education and Related Costs for BPS 2004/09 Students

Magnitude of Attrition Cost Varies by Sector

Public 4-Year Public 2-Year Private 4-Year

73%

43%

83%

13%

33%

9%14%

24%8%

Proportion of All Costs, by First Sector

Still enrolledNo Degree/AttritionDegree or Credential

One year or less

1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4+ years$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%43.8%

29.4%

17.8%

7.3%1.8%

$8,829.9

$17,426.8

$29,417.4

$42,036.4$47,122.2

Percent of All Attrition

Time enrolled before leaving

Perc

ent o

f All

Attri

tion

Attrition Magnitude and Costs

Later/Early Leavers Cite Different Reasons

Policy and Practice Implications for States

• More reason to prioritize “near-completers”• Suggests different types of interventions and

investments:– Broad-based efforts for early intervention, where

volume is so high– More focused efforts on later-stage at-risk students,

where cost per student is high• Potential to further disaggregate costs and

causes, model different types of high- and low-cost strategies to reduce attrition

• Other ideas? How could this type of analysis help?

Financial Aid Investments and Attrition

• Positive but small returns to aid investments

• Where is biggest potential impact on completion rates?

• Middle terms/years focus?• Risk profiles more accurate: ability to

predict diagnose and intervene• Potentially greater ROI• More analysis & experimentation needed

Some Studies Show Larger Impacts of Aid Programs After First Semester (Example: MDRC Performance-Based Scholarships)

Key Recommendation: Look at Current Attrition

• Do not wait six years to calculate a graduation rate

• Look every year at year-to-year attrition and retention patterns

• Who is dropping out between first- and second-year?

• Second and third? Third and fourth?• What do you know about these students?• Academic status, loan burden, institutions,

regional employment trends, UI records…

Projecting Attrition (and Retention and Graduation)

• Cohort studies not always practical or useful• Length of time needed poses problems

– Data availability & quality– Measuring phenomena long ago

• Alternative: estimate attrition using enrollment projection tools

• Markov chain method uses most recent year-to-year retention/dropout rates

• Only two-three years of student data needed

STEPS TO PROJECT LONG-TERM ATTRITION FOR CURRENTLY ENROLLED STUDENTSEXAMPLE BASELINE DATA

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

YEARS SINCE 1ST ENROLLED

2008-09 STUDENTS ANNUAL

UNDUPLICATED

HEADCOUNT

GRADUATED%

GRADUATED

2009-10 # RETAINED ANNUAL

UNDUPLICATED

HEADCOUNT

% RETAINED2009-10

RETURNING STUDENTS

RETURN ADJUSTMEN

T

NON-RETAINED

UNADJUSTED

ATTRITION RATE

ADJUSTED ATTRITION

RATE

1 100 0 0% 80 80% 0 0% 20 20% 20%2 87 0 0% 72 83% 1 1% 15 17% 16%3 81 10 12% 60 74% 2 2% 11 14% 11%4 60 40 67% 15 25% 1 2% 5 8% 7%5 30 12 40% 12 40% 1 3% 6 20% 17%

6+ 60 20 33% 30 50% 1 2% 10 17% 15%418 82 20% 269 64% 6 1% 67 16% 15%

PROJECTION CHAINS11 12

2010-11 STUDENTS

UNDUPLICATED

HEADCOUNT2011-12

GRADUATES2011-12

ATTRITION

2012-13 REMAINING STUDENTS

2012-13 GRADUATES

2011-12 ATTRITION

2013-14 REMAINING STUDENTS

2013-14 GRADUATES

2013-14 ATTRITION

2014-15 REMAINING STUDENTS

YEARS SINCE 1ST ENROLLED

1 110 - 22 2 93 - 15 88 - 14 3 85 10 9 78 10 9 74 9 8 4 70 47 5 65 43 4 60 40 4 57 5 44 18 7 19 7 3 17 7 3 16

6+ 80 27 12 19 6 3 8 3 1 8 6+ 41 14 6 10 3 1 4 6+ 21 7 3 5 6+ 11

Questions or comments?• Materials will be released soon on the

Delta Project website:www.deltacostproject.org

• Feedback and questions welcome:nate.johnson@postsecondaryanalytics.com