“meeting operational needs through comprehensive tropical cyclone research and development ”...
TRANSCRIPT
“Meeting Operational Needs
through Comprehensive Tropical Cyclone
Research and Development ”
March 1 - 4, 2010
64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
Mr. Samuel P. WilliamsonFederal Coordinator for Meteorology
Sponsored and hosted by:
The Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services
and Supporting Research
64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference“Meeting Operational Needs through Comprehensive
Tropical Cyclone Research and Development ”
Conference Opening
64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
The Honorable Edna JacksonMayor Pro Tem, Savannah, Georgia
Welcome / Opening Remarks
• Improve operational capability to provide services to help prevent loss of life and injuries
– Minimize the nation’s vulnerability to natures most destructive forces
– Enable a strong homeland defense through a safe overseas presence
• Build upon synergies / collaboration in the tropical cyclone community• Continued improvements in observations, modeling, forecaster tools,
and incorporation of social science results into operations are vital to improve services to a myriad of stakeholders
Why Are We Here?
• Example improvement in observations: SFMR– Has increased confidence in the intensity
analysis of hurricanes, especially major hurricanes
– Helped better quantify 64 kt & 34 kt wind radii, complementing QuikSCAT and now ASCAT
– Still unresolved uncertainties about the SFMR algorithim output at moderate winds with rain present
• Will hear more about this in Session 4
• For modeling research & development, we’ll hear much more about this in Sessions 7-8
• Session 3, Understanding Hurricane Response for Improved Stakeholder / User Reaction, will highlight some important work taking place in social sciences
Why Are We Here?
• A few examples of improved capabilities and services:
– Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook• Overwhelming positive feedback
prior to operational implementation at NHC in 2009
• Operational implementation at CPHC in 2010
– Linkage of tropical cyclone track forecast to wave prediction models for commercial and military shipping hazard avoidance
– Probabilistic storm surge product• Provides the likelihood of storm surge values from 2 through 25
feet; became operational at NHC in 2009
• Review the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecasting and warning program
– Address actions from previous IHC
– Update the National Hurricane Operations Plan for 2010
• Review an assessment of tropical cyclone research and development activities and their contributions toward forecasting and warning center’s operational priorities
• Review Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) projects, and recognize candidates that may be successfully transitioned into operations
• Examine aspects of the hurricane forecasting and warning process and ongoing social sciences-related research to aid in improved stakeholder / user response
• Build upon tropical cyclone partnerships, leveraging agency capabilities to meet the operational needs of the tropical cyclone forecasting and warning centers
Conference Objectives
Plenary Opening Speakers(1:00 – 1:40 PM)
This Afternoon
Conference Agenda
Mr. William Craig Fugate Administrator of the Federal
Emergency Management Agency
(FEMA/DHS)
Ms. Monica Medina Principal Deputy Under Secretary
of Commerce for Oceans and
Atmosphere (NOAA/DOC)
Moderator: Dr. Elbert W. (Joe) Friday, Professor Emeritus of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma
Panelists: Dr. Ramesh Kakar, NASA Weather Focus Area Lead and
Program Manager for Atmospheric Dynamics,NASA Headquarters
Dr. Fred Lewis, Air Force Director of Weather, HQ Air ForceRADM David Titley, Oceanographer and Navigator of
the Navy Dr. John “Jack” Hayes, Assistant Administrator for
Weather Services, NOAA
This Afternoon
Conference Agenda
Panel Discussion: The Power of Partnerships to Meet Operational Priorities (1:40 – 3:00 PM)
• Session 1: The 2009 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review
3:45 – 5:30
PM
Session Leaders: Dr. Steve Lyons (TWC) and
CAPT Grant Cooper (NMFC/JTWC)
• Reception / Icebreaker: 6:30 - 8:00 PM(Pool Area)
Later This Afternoon and Evening
Conference Agenda
• 8:00 – 8:15 AM: Invited Presentation- Mr. Bill Proenza (NOAA/NWS)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------• 8:15 – 9:30 AM: Workshop/Panel Session 2: Assessment of the Tropical Cyclone R&D Activities in
Contributing to the Operational Priorities of the Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Warning Centers
Moderator: Dr. Elizabeth Ritchie, Associate Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of ArizonaPanelists: Dr. Frank Marks, AOML/HRD (NOAA)
Mr. James Franklin, NWS/NHC (NOAA)Mr. Robert Falvey, JTWC (DOD)Dr. Ron Ferek, ONR (DOD)
Tuesday Morning
Conference Agenda
• 10:00 – 11:45 AM: Workshop/Panel Session 3: Understanding Hurricane Response for improved
Stakeholder / User Reaction
Moderator: Mr. Max Mayfield, Senior Executive Vice President of Governmental Relations, America’s Emergency Network and WPLG-TV Hurricane SpecialistPanelists: Mr. David Caldwell, NWS/OCWWS (NOAA)
Dr. Brenda Phillips, Oklahoma State UniversityDr. Jeff Lazo, NCARMs. Jennifer Santos-Hernandez, Univ. of Delaware Mr. Walt Dickerson, Diversified Em. Mgmt. Associates
Tuesday Morning
Conference Agenda
6:00 - 8:00 PM
Poster Session
Tuesday Evening
• Banquet Address:- Dr. Timothy Killeen Assistant Director for the
Geosciences, NSF
Wednesday Evening – Conference Banquet
Conference Agenda
Cash Bar Open 6:30 PM
Banquet Starts 7:00 PM
Banquet Address ~7:45 PM
Presentation of the Hagemeyer Award ~ 8:15 PM
Thursday Afternoon – Final Plenary Session
Conference Agenda
10:15 – 11:15 AM
WG/HWSOR: Action Item Review Dr. Edward Rappaport (NHC)Chairperson, WG/HWSOR
Workshop Wrap-up
Workshop: Assessment of the Tropical Cyclone R&D Activities in Contributing to the Operational Priorities of the Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Centers
Workshop: Understanding Hurricane Response for Improved Stakeholder/User Reaction
Dr. Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML/HRD
Mr. Max MayfieldSr. Exec. Vice Pres. of Gvmtl Relations, America’s Em. Network & WPLG-TV Hurr. Spec.
Final Wrap-up Mr. Samuel P. WilliamsonFederal Coordinator
Conference Logistics
Conference Technical Director
Mr. Mark Welshinger
Media CoordinatorMr. Mike Babcock
Lt Col Sabrina Taijeron
Assistant Coordinators for Conference Arrangements
Ms. Erin McNamara
Ms. Christina Bork
Audiovisual SpecialistsMr. Ken Barnett
Mr. Tony Ramirez
RegistrarsMs. Erin McNamara
Ms. Christina Bork
Conference Chair: Mr. Samuel P. Williamson
Conference Logistics
Presentation Timers Ms. Christina Bork
Session Coordinators
Mr. Mark Welshinger
Dr. Paul Try
Mr. Mike Babcock
Lt Col Sabrina Taijeron
Mr. Floyd Hauth
Poster Session Lt Col Sabrina Taijeron
Plenary Opening
Mr. William Craig Fugate
Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management
Agency (DHS/FEMA)
64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference“Meeting Operational Needs through Comprehensive Tropical Cyclone
Research and Development ”
Plenary Opening
64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference“Meeting Operational Needs through Comprehensive Tropical Cyclone
Research and Development ”
Ms. Monica MedinaPrincipal Deputy Under
Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere
(DOC/NOAA)
• The Power of Partnerships to Meet Operational Priorities
Panel Discussion
Moderator: Dr. Elbert W. (Joe) Friday, Professor Emeritus of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Panelists:Dr. Ramesh Kakar, NASA Weather Focus Area Lead and Program
Manager for Atmospheric DynamicsDr. Fred Lewis, Air Force Director of WeatherRADM David Titley, Oceanographer and Navigator of the NavyDr. Jack Hayes, Director, National Weather Service, NOAA
NOAA Dr. John “Jack” HayesNOAA Assistant Administrator forWeather Services/Director, NWS
DHS Mr. Dan CatlettNational Hurricane Prgram ManagerDHS/FEMA
Army Mr. Bill BirkemeierField Data Collection Program USACE Field Research Facility
Navy RADM David TitleyOceanographer and Navigator of the NavyCNO N84, US Naval Observatory
Federal Agency Lead Reps
Air Force Dr. Fred LewisDirector of Weather
AF/A3O-W, HQ USAF
NSF Dr. Brad Smull Division of Atmospheric Sciences
DOI Brian McCallum Assistant Director, Georgia Water
Science Center, DOI/USGS
NASA Dr. Ramesh KakarNASA Wx Focus Area Lead and Program Manager for Atmospheric Dynamics
• Questions welcomed...time permitting
• Significant agency issues worked through lead agency reps
– User community & agency reps are welcome to raise issues for discussion during Q&A periods and at Thursday workshops
• Significant issues reviewed daily at OFCM staff meeting
– Results of discussions and any action items
• Summarized during the Final Plenary Session
Ground Rules
AfternoonBreak
The 2009 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review(3:45 – 5:30 PM)
Session LeadersDr. Steve Lyons, TWC
CAPT Grant Cooper, NMFC/JTWC
Session 1
Coordinator: Mr. Mark Welshinger, OFCM
Harborview Room – top floor6:30 - 8:00 PM
Reception / Icebreaker