Peter Cochrane

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

www.ca-global.org

Futurology… …Mega & micro trends!

What do futurologists do?Extrapolate trendsInterpolate between technologiesProject into the future……..Read and travel a lotVisit R&D labs and UniversitiesWork with leading companies……..Read SciFi & watch moviesTalk to each other……..

Guess……..And this one is a business angel & was a VC for over 6 years

For sure a crystal ball is not enough… …we can’t predict the future

…but we can build it!

5 year future - all of the technology is in the lab now - we just have to look for it

10 year future - a lot of the technology is in the lab right now - but some isn’t

20 year future - we are more or less blind!

What we know…

• Technology• Connectivity• Complexity• Networking• Non-linearity & Chaos

Megatrends?An acceleration of:

Leading to far more:

• Creativity• Content• Decentralization

• Instrumentation• Control• Machines• People

Microtrends?Chips get into everything:

People, machine and things get:

• Connected• Collaborative• Creative• Ultra-productive

• Things we cannot make

• Things we cannot see

• Things we cannot touch

• They do things we cannot, or do not wish, to do!

Machines build more machines:

Biggest Megatrend?

Disruptive forces impacting people… …companies & countries

Digitization of everything

Explosion of networked connectivity

Devices are getting much smarter

Disruptive forces impacting people… …companies & countries

Digitization of everything

Explosion of networked connectivity

Devices are getting much smarter

Positioning systems >> Communications

SensorNets >> All Nets

PodCasting >> TV & Radio

HomeCare >> Hospital Care

Home Creativity >> Office Creativity

Robots >> People

Machine Decisions >> People Decisions

We will become a part of the network….

BIG predictions…

-Decoding the genome-Decoding the protein stack-Emulating the human body

-Modelling the environment-Modelling society

-Nuclear fusion control-Room temperature fission

We now face/have problems that only massive computing power can solve!

Moore’s Wall

ThermionicTube

Transistor

IC1

IC2

IC3

IC4

IC5

ICn

1915 46 59 2010 2025

3D ICsMolecularQuantumGeneticBiologicalOptical Computing

NewSensorsNetworksSoftwareLifeformsIntelligences

Log Scale

A future of man, woman & machine...

1940 20101950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.111010101010

101010101010

10101010

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

10

9

11

12

13

15

17

1000xVacuum tubes Transistors

Integrated circuitsMicro-processors

Relays

UNIVAC ScalarENIAC

IBM 704

Stretch

LARC

CDC1604

CDC 6600

CDC 7600

ILLIAC IVCray -2

Cray C-90

Cray-1Cray X-MP

Cray Y-MP

CM-2Delta

CM-5

TeraflopHuman Brain

zone

100,000Teraflopdesktop

SUPERCOMPUTERS

Vector

Multiprocessors

Massively parallel

FLOPS

Human Zone?

Internet (Web 2.0/3.0) Zone?

Social networking for machines will promote a rapid rise in cloud computing...

What waspossible What is

likely

BOINCSETI et al

Internet ~ Human Brain Today!

> 109 Nodes & > 104 Links/Node

2006 Internet ~ 1 Human Brain

2012 Internet ~ 1,000 Human Brains

2018 Internet ~ 1,000,000 Human Brains

2024 Internet ~ 1,000,000,000 Human Brains

2034 Internet ~ 1,000,000,000,000, Human Brains

But exponential growth takes over…

So is it game over around 2030??

How smart are our machine right now?

How smart are our machine right now?

Big opportunities…

Energy generationis not an issue – weare spoilt for choice

…but going totally green is another matter!

There are a lot ofpotential long shots

…but if they workthey will transformthe planet!

Energy transmissionis not an issue ….

there are super cooled conductor studies & programs but I wouldn’t bother…

…any move from AC to DC will be very interesting!

Energy storage is a big deal & a very big opportunity

…there are no really good solutions out there right now…

Electrolysis and hydrogen generation for transport seems obvious…but single issue thinking has taken over!

Smart appliances, in homes and offices

…this is all about coping with peak-to-mean demand by dynamically adjusting demand

…flattening the curve!

Where does theenergy go…

…and where does the pollution come from?

CO2 isn’t the biggest deal – methane is!

Any significant advance in personal transport will require…

…a raft of technologies based on advanced materials!

Food Production

Current State-of-the-Art Agricultural Food Factory

High value/quality greenhouse tomato $170M annual sales 200M lbs tomatoes per year 600,000 lbs per day [every day!] 320 acres 1200 employees

Glass covered structures = natural ventilation - evaporative cooling, and heating - CO2 enrichment with natural gas - computerized environmental control. (40acre, below)

Food Factory

Computer controlIntensive plant monitoringReal-Time Data for decision supportEnergy conservationAlternative energyLabor managementMarket developmentResource recyclingOptimizing plant environment

The final frontier goes commercial

And comes within the reach of the many?

And there are a lot of things we would like to get into or manufacture in space!

The space elevator…

…looks morefeasible year-on-year!

Much of our future depends on advances in nano-materials & structures!

Everything we have done before in the macro and micro we are attempting in the nano!

And process control has improved to the point models and designs are being realized!

Commercial products are on the market!

Ceramic +fibre mix

Fibre only

Filters of a quality& performance

never seen before

Nano-machines are getting real!

Nano –sensors and a lab on a chip!

Will impact every industry from food & farming thro aerospace, automotive andhealthcare…

…instant sensing and diagnosis for mankind and machine alike!

3D printing with reusable polymers mayrevolutionize the design, production, delivery, use and support cycle

But the merging of biology & technologyis where the fun really starts:

Gnome > Protein Stack > Life Models and Simulation > try itbefore you build or synthesise!

Where is the € ??

Some more important technologies we didn’t have time to cover

We now live in a world of the infinite…

… how do you find and how do you choose?

…the hybrid solutions .…combining man and machine

VR, AR, robotic aided surgery/medicine

No people involved!

The progress in and implications of… …artificially manufactured life forms?

Life doesn’t need light or oxygen, and most likely it doesn’t have to be carbon based – this is the recently discovered ‘Candidatus Desulforudis that lives in a gold mine and takes its energy from uranium and radioactive decay!

We are rolling out intelligent sensors!And our machines will see, hear, smell….…detect and communicate in a way and

at a rate we cannot!

Implants for human repair & enhancement …

Bar Code RFID

RFID revolutionizing the supply and support chain, especially when linked to tracking…

In the field of healthcare RFID save lives, increases efficiency and reduces costs… prevents digital deaths

Average truck fill in the UK ~17%

Things sometimes go abit wrong!

Badly wrong!

>10,000 Containersper yearpushed overboardin stormy weather…

…or lost atsea by somemechanism

In the next phase RFID + GPS +AI takes over….

…and > $2T may be saved!

We now live in a world of the infinitely complex…

… how do you solve problems & make decisions?

Everything in the universe is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions….

…but we are linear and limited thinkers devoidof tools & techniques tohelp us comprehend…

If we have a long-term future it lies with our technology and machines and their ability to extend our knowledge & understanding

66There are no silver bullets!

Hypothesis

The combined intelligence ofall humanity isalso insufficient

Hypothesis

The combined intelligence ofall humanity isalso insufficient

Our only hope isthe combinedintelligence

of our machines

A world of opportunity & risk….

Thank you,

cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s