Midwest High Speed Rail Association

The Economic Impacts of High Speed Rail:Transforming the MidwestHighlights from the research project prepared by AECOM and the EconomicDevelopment Research Group, Inc., and sponsored by Siemens

MidwestHSR.org

The Midwest High Speed Rail Association

The Midwest High Speed Rail Association is a Chicago-based, member-supported, non-profit organization advocating for fast, frequent and dependable trains linking the entire Midwest. Its diverse membership base includes nearly 2,000 individuals, local governments and corporations. The Midwest High Speed Rail Association’s goal is to persuade local, state and federal governments to implement an aggressive railroad expansion and provide ongoing operational support for fast trains throughout the Midwest. This report presents highlights from a larger study prepared for the Midwest High Speed Rail Association and sponsored by Siemens, based on a high-level engineering study conducted by AECOM and an economic impact assessment of the Chicago Metropolitan region conducted by the Economic Development Research Group, Inc. (EDRG). We would like to thank all those who participated in this study for their valuable insights and time, including Solomon Cordwell Buenz, who provided a conceptual design for the incorporation of high speed rail at Union Station. The full version of the study can be viewed at MidwestHSR.org.

Special thanks to our sponsor

Siemens is working to provide solutions to today’s urbanization challenges, all with an eye to minimizing impact to the environment. To this end, Siemens has been involved in the development and publishing of several key studies on sustainable urban infrastructure – which includes complete mobility solutions. Siemens is currently a world leader in bringing advanced mobility solutions to cities around the world. To see how high speed rail has helped transform cities in Spain, Germany, Russia and China, and what it can do for the United States, please go to: www.siemens.com/highspeedrail

Siemens Corporation is a U.S. subsidiary of Siemens AG (NYSE: SI), a global powerhouse in electronics and electrical engineering, operating in the industry, energy and healthcare sectors. For more than 160 years, Siemens has built a reputation for leading-edge innovation and the quality of its products, services and solutions. With 405,000 employees in 190 countries, Siemens reported worldwide revenue of $102.9 billion in fiscal 2010. Siemens in the USA reported revenue of $19.9 billion and employs approximately 62,000 people throughout all 50 states and Puerto Rico. For more information on Siemens in the United States, visit www.usa.siemens.com

The Economic Impacts of High Speed Rail: Transforming the MidwestPerhaps no region in the United States is better positioned to capitalize on high speed rail than the Midwest.

As the world’s fifth largest economy, (at $2.6 trillion and

approximately equal to France, only the U.S., Chinese,

Japanese and German economies are larger) the

Midwest possesses a diverse manufacturing, agricultural

and business services base anchored by nine major

metropolitan areas. High speed rail (HSR) will have a

transformative impact that will unify the Midwest and

solidify its future position as one of the world’s most

powerful economic mega-regions.

Midwest High Speed Rail Association 1 April 2011

Figure 1: Concept Plan for High-Speed Rail Routing and Connectivity – Midwest Region

Source: AECOM 2011; routings are subject to full environmental review and market analysis.

Concept Plan for High Speed Rail Routing and Connectivity - Midwest Region

The goal is to describe five important characteristics of a 220-mph Midwest system

that will help define this vision:

1. The alignment and operating

characteristics of the HSR corridors

and supporting infrastructure

2. The location and development potential

of key HSR stations

3. The costs to construct the HSR system

4. The impact of high speed rail on economic

development and job growth

5. The financial resources needed to build

a system that will repay its costs of

construction, support its operation and

sustain the Midwest as a competitive

player in the global marketplace

The Midwest High Speed Rail Association is undertaking a

series of studies to clearly define this vision. Eight Midwest

states have already studied upgrading existing Amtrak

corridors, which share track with freight carriers, to 110-

mph systems. This new initiative focuses on the 220-mph

trains necessary to slash travel times to less than three

hours (often two) between major cities.

Study Results

This study examined a system serving all major metropolitan areas within 350 to 450 miles of Chicago. The region would be served by a four-spoke network with Chicago at the center of corridors connected to Cleveland/Detroit, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Minneapolis-St. Paul. Trains would operate at 220-mph on dedicated track with no grade crossings.

The results of this study demonstrate both the feasibility and the tremendous promise for this network:

• 43 million annual riders from 13 cities and major metropolitan areas

• More than $2.2 billion annually in user- generated revenues

• 25 daily departures on each of the four corridors

• Capacity for up to 10 trains in peak hours on each corridor

• 2-3 hour travel times between Chicago and the furthest points of the network

The economic impact of the 220-mph network on Chicago would be staggering. New jobs and business opportunities will support and enhance the Chicago metropolitan area’s global competitiveness and help Chicagoland maintain its preeminence as a global center by linking the financial, educational, technology and medical research resources of the entire region to produce:

• $13.8 billion per year increase in business sales for the Chicago Metro area alone

• 104,000 new jobs and an additional $5.5 billion in wages each year in the Chicago Metro area resulting from increased economic activity

• $314 million in new annual visitor spending in downtown Chicago

New jobs in the Chicago metropolitan area alone represent $118 billion in wages over 30 years, and the new business sales generated by economic activity associated with the HSR system are estimated to be almost $300 billion over 30 years.

The study estimates that the system would cost about $58 million per mile, or a total of $83.6 billion, putting it in the range of similar systems already operating around the world. Construction can be phased over time to meet the demands of the Midwest travel market.

Estimated Annual Total Economic Impacts of Chicago-based HSR Service in 2030

Detroit

Minneapolis-St. Paul

ClevelandChicago

IndianapolisCincinnati

1:05 0:40

1:55

1:55

1:55

2:15

MadisonMilwaukee

St. Louis

2:45

Route StudiedAlternate RouteEstimated travel times from Chicago

1:10

These economic impacts represent additional economic activity occurring locally as a result of high speed rail service.

150-mph 220-mph Measure Unit Service Service

2030 Employment Jobs 58,049 103,610

2030 Output $billion/year $7.6 $13.8(business sales)

2030 Value-Added $billion/year $4.3 $7.8(Gross Regional Product)

2030 Wages $billion/year $3.0 $5.5

Source: EDR Group Inc. TREDIS model analysis

Next Steps

The Midwest High Speed Rail Association is sharing these initial findings to stimulate discussion and generate support for an expanded study that will document the expected economic benefits for the region as a whole.

Based on what is already known about the

impact on Chicago, there is ample reason to

believe that the system would considerably

enhance economic activity in the rest of the

region and enable the Midwest to remain a

strong global player.

The Midwest High Speed Rail Association

expects that every metropolitan area

on the network would see explosive economic

activity and job growth as a result of having

access to 220-mph trains. Expanding these

initial studies, and working closely with each of

the metropolitan areas the system serves, will

demonstrate new and innovative ways that

investments in a truly “high speed” rail system

will be repaid many times over in jobs tied to

economic development in the new and

emerging industries of the 21st century.

The support of state and municipal governments, economic development entities, the business community, and other stakeholders is vital in the Midwest High Speed Rail Association’s quest to define the benefits of a 220-mph rail network for the entire region and to set the foundation for a new century in the Midwest.

High Speed Definitions

There are different kinds of high speed rail proposed for

the United States. Here is a breakdown of the various

systems according to Federal Railroad Administration

(FRA) guidelines:

• Core Express high speed rail will operate at speeds of

125 to 250 mph. This is the current standard for leading

high speed networks in Europe and Asia. Core Express

HSR operates on dedicated right-of-way, separated

from other trains, and is completely grade-separated.

• Regional high speed rail, which operates at speeds

from 90 to 125 mph, can share existing tracks with

freight and other forms of passenger rail with the

use of positive train control technology.

• Emerging high speed operates at up to 90 mph and

can run on existing tracks that have been upgraded.

Notes: 1 Figures include route overlap from West Loop to Grand Crossing 2 Figures include route overlap from West Loop to Gary 3 Totals exclude route overlapSource: AECOM 2011.

Ridership Forecast Summary

Annual Annual Travel Daily Riders Revenue Time Roundtrips

CHICAGO – MINNEAPOLIS / ST. PAUL

110 mph (MWRRI) 4,362,404 $158,030,000 6:29 6

150 mph 12,537,000 $634,220,000 3:30 25

220 mph 15,884,000 $842,150,000 2:30 25

CHICAGO – ST. LOUIS

110 mph (MWRRI) 1,757,123 $65,760,000 4:27 8

150 mph 5,999,000 $249,090,000 2:40 25

220 mph 7,904,000 $336,750,000 1:55 25

CHICAGO – CINCINNATI

110 mph (MWRRI) 894,669 $55,420,000 4:08 5

150 mph 5,877,000 $285,660,000 2:30 25

220 mph 7,226,000 $374,280,000 1:55 25

CHICAGO – DETROIT / CLEVELAND

110 mph (MWRRI) 4,795,048 $179,360,000 4:24 / 4:48 9

150 mph 10,661,000 $561,770,000 2:25 / 2:50 25

220 mph 12,650,000 $685,190,000 1:55 / 2:15 25

TOTALS

110 mph (MWRRI) 11,809,244 $458,570,000 - 28

150 mph 35,074,000 $1,730,740,000 - 100

220 mph 43,664,000 $2,238,370,000 - 100

Notes: Current project forecast year: 2030; revenue in 2010 dollars MWRRI forecast year: 2025; revenue in 2002 dollars MWRRI reported Michigan and Cleveland corridors separately; results combined above MWRRI Minneapolis / St. Paul corridor also includes Green Bay MWRRI total only represents ridership forecast in the four corridors

Sources: Midwest Regional Rail Initiative Project Notebook, June 2004; AECOM 2011.

HSR – 150 / 220-mph Project Cost $-Billions (2010)

Corridor Miles 150-mph 220-mph

CHICAGO – MINNEAPOLIS / ST. PAUL 442 25.7 28.6

CHICAGO – ST. LOUIS1 311 14.1 15.9

CHICAGO – CINCINNATI2 284 12.6 14.2

CHICAGO – DETROIT/CLEVELAND 420 23.8 26.5

CHICAGO TERMINAL STATION – 0.450 0.475

SYSTEM TOTALS3 1,430 74.7 83.6

Richard Harnish, Executive Director

4765 N. Lincoln Avenue

Chicago, IL 60625

Tel: 773.334.6758

MidwestHSR.org

Integration with the Midwest Regional Rail Initiative

The Midwest Regional Rail Initiative (MWRRI) is

a cooperative effort of nine states to design and

implement a system of emerging high speed rail

corridors radiating from Chicago. It proposes trains

approximately every two hours at speeds of 90 to

110 mph on tracks shared with freight trains. This

network will provide critical connections between

over 200 cities and towns in 9 states. The MWRRI

has served as the basis for the states’ applications

for federal high speed rail funding.

This study focuses on creating the 2 to 3 hour

travel times essential to linking the major cities

of the Midwest in an economically integrated

mega-region. Achieving this goal will require new,

purpose-built track and operating speeds of 220

mph. In addition to speed, the new track will have

the capacity for up to 10 trains an hour, creating

the potential for additional local services.

Emerging 0 - 90 mph **

Passenger Freight*

Regional 90 - 110 mph ***

Freight*Passenger

*

**

***

79 mph maximum (FRA Class 5 Track)

Mixed passenger and freight allowable for speedsexceeding 90 mph with Positive Train Control

Grade crossings allowable up to 125 mph with barrier gates and presence detection tied to Positive Train Control

NOT TO SCALE

Regional 110 - 125 mph

Core Express 125 - 250 mph

Freight*PassengerPassenger

Freight*PassengerPassenger

Potential Incremental Upgrade Strategy for High Speed Rail Corridors

HSR – 150 / 220-mph Project Cost $-Billions (2010)

Corridor Miles 150-mph 220-mph

CHICAGO – MINNEAPOLIS / ST. PAUL 442 25.7 28.6

CHICAGO – ST. LOUIS1 311 14.1 15.9

CHICAGO – CINCINNATI2 284 12.6 14.2

CHICAGO – DETROIT/CLEVELAND 420 23.8 26.5

CHICAGO TERMINAL STATION – 0.450 0.475

SYSTEM TOTALS3 1,430 74.7 83.6