multiple regression fundamentals basic interpretations
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Multiple Regression
Fundamentals
Basic Interpretations
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Statistical Models
• E(Y) is a conditional mean, a ‘regression’
• A ‘linear’ regression is:
• Then usually we have:
• And the other assumptions about the errors
1122110)( KK XXXYE
211110 )( VarXXY KK
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The fitted values
• Where the residual sum of squares
• Is made as small as possible (least squares)
11110ˆ
KK XbXbbY
2)ˆ( YYRSS
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Analysis of Variance• Source SS df MS• Regression ESS K-1• Residual RSS n-K MSE
• Total TSS n-1
• The main purpose of such a display is to present the MSE
• The ‘Omnibus F test’ is rarely used as it tests:
• This null hypothesis is rarely of scientific interest• (It is given in most regression output. So what!)
0: 1210 KH
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Interpretation
• The meaning of the ‘coefficients’ is different for every model.
• Be careful! We tend to use the same symbols to conceptualize the models but the coefficients can mean very different things EVEN when they are coefficients for the same variables
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Water consumption example
• Y is water81• is income• is water80• We write:
• And:
• But any one coefficient is interpreted in light of the others in the model.
• See Hamilton for the details
1X
2X
110)( XYE
22110)( XXYE
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Notice that:
• In the second model,
• But in the first model,
• This looks complicated, but it is central to understanding and interpreting
)())1(( 22110221101 XXXX
))(())1(( 1101101 XX
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For example, if a household has
• Then the second model says that the expected water consumption for this household is:
• If another household has:
• Then:
• The difference in expected water consumption is:
1040 21 XandX
210 1040)( YE1041 21 XandX
210 1041)( YE
1
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But!
• This is true only if the previous water consumption was the SAME in the 2 households
• This addition part to the statement is only required with the second model, but not with the first simpler model that did not involve previous water consumption