nada used ar guideguidelines | june 2016 nada used ar guide® and its logo are registered trademarks...

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NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update NADA Used Car Guide and its logo are registered trademarks of Naonal Automobile Dealers Associaon, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates. ©2016 J.D. Power and Associates NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power | nada.com/b2b June 2016 Wholesale Depreciaon Accelerates in May Prices decline by an average of 2% Used Vehicle Price Index Rises Slightly Index increases by 0.7% to 119.1 New Vehicle Deliveries Decrease Sales fall by 6.1%, SAAR reaches 17.37M Incenve Spending Increases by Double-Digits Average spending per unit jumps 11% in May

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Page 1: NADA Used ar GuideGuidelines | June 2016 NADA Used ar Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and

NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update

NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update

NADA Used Car Guide and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates. ©2016 J.D. Power and Associates

NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power | nada.com/b2b

June 2016

Wholesale Depreciation Accelerates in May

Prices decline by an average of 2%

Used Vehicle Price Index Rises Slightly

Index increases by 0.7% to 119.1

New Vehicle Deliveries Decrease

Sales fall by 6.1%, SAAR reaches 17.37M

Incentive Spending Increases by Double-Digits

Average spending per unit jumps 11% in May

Page 2: NADA Used ar GuideGuidelines | June 2016 NADA Used ar Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and

Guidelines | June 2016

NADA Used Car Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates.

© 2016 J.D. Power and Associates

NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power 8400 Westpark Drive, 6th Floor| McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b

2

NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS

USED MARKET UPDATE

Typical for the month of May, depreciation accelerated as wholesale prices of used

vehicles up to eight years in age fell by 2% compared to April (or a half-percentage point

more than the 1.5% drop recorded a month earlier). But while depreciation on a

monthly basis was higher, May’s performance was better than expected and was an

improvement over the 2.7% decline averaged over the previous four years.

As a result, NADA Used Car Guide’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index rose by

0.7% to 119.1; the first increase recorded since November 2015.

Prices of used mainstream cars continued to fall at industry-high rates in May. Compact

car depreciation reached 3% over the month, while large and mid-size car losses

averaged 2.7%. Subcompact car depreciation remained elevated at 2.4%, yet the dip

was an improvement over April’s 4% loss. Losses

likely would have been steeper had it not been for a

17% pullback in late-model auction sales volume over

the month (although subcompact car sales volume

year-to-date was up 29%).

Similar to cars, mainstream compact utility prices fell

at an above-average rate last month. Under pressure

from a growing pool of supply and higher new vehicle

incentives, prices for the group fell by 2.5% in May —

nearly 1.5-percentage points more than April’s

TABLE OF CONTENTS

New & Used Market Trends ........................................................................................................ 2

Economic Update ......................................................................................................................... 10

NADA Official Used Car Guide Value Trends ............................................................................... 12

At NADA Used Car Guide ............................................................................................................. 13

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan

uar

y 2

01

0 =

10

0

Month

NADA Used Vehicle Price IndexVehicles up to eight years in age. Seasonally adjusted.

Source: NADA Used Car Guide

May 2016:

Index rises 0.7% to 119.1

Page 3: NADA Used ar GuideGuidelines | June 2016 NADA Used ar Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and

Guidelines | June 2016

NADA Used Car Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates.

© 2016 J.D. Power and Associates

NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power 8400 Westpark Drive, 6th Floor| McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b

3

decline. Year-to-date, compact utility depreciation versus Q4 2015 is nearly 5-

percentage points worse than it was over the same period last year. The popular

segment is tied with subcompact and compact cars for the biggest negative swing in the

industry.

Supported by a 22% reduction in late-model auction sales volume, mid-size van prices

fell by less than 1%. Prices for the segment fell by an

average of nearly 2.5% in May over the past two

years.

After a somewhat soft start to the year, mid-size and

large pickup prices returned to their former track of

strength over the past two months. Prices for the

two dipped by a combined average of just 0.4% in

May, up a bit from April’s similarly small 0.6% drop.

On the luxury side of the market, segment losses

were primarily mild compared to their mainstream

counterparts. Luxury compact utility prices declined

the most for the month (2.1%), which is slightly more

than the segment’s 0.6% average decline in May over the past two years. Losses for

remaining luxury segments averaged 1.2% for the month.

When compared to the same period in 2015 on an index basis year-to-date (YTD),

average prices this year are down by about 4%. Through the first five months of the

year, depreciation has accelerated at a steeper rate for small to mid-size cars, as well as

small and mid-size utilities. Vehicles in the large car, truck, SUV and luxury segments

have fared better.

AUCTION VOLUME TRENDS

Historically the norm each May, auction sales volume of units up to eight years in age

fell. Compared to the four prior weeks, this past month’s volume dropped by 4% over

the four-week period extending through May 23. Sales volume for the 2013 and 2016

model years rose by 1% and 5%, respectively, while sales volume for other years fell 2%

(2011) to 9% (2014 and 2015).

[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS CONTINUED ]

-3.0%

-2.8%-2.6%

-2.5% -2.4%

-2.1% -2.1%-2.0% -2.0%

-1.7%

-1.3% -1.3%

-0.8%-0.7%

-0.5% -0.4%-0.3%

-3.5%

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

Pri

or

Mo

nth

Ch

ange

Monthly Change in Wholesale Used Vehicle Prices - Apr vs. May 2016Vehicles up to eight years in age.

Source: NADA Used Car Guide

Page 4: NADA Used ar GuideGuidelines | June 2016 NADA Used ar Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and

Guidelines | June 2016

NADA Used Car Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates.

© 2016 J.D. Power and Associates

NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power 8400 Westpark Drive, 6th Floor| McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b

4

Although sales volume for the off-rental heavy 2015 model year moved progressively

lower over the past two months, the nearly 136,500 units sold through the lanes were

12% higher than sales of 2014 models in April and May last year. As a result, the number

of 2015 model year auction sales is now higher than model year 2014 units on a like-age

basis.

Year-to-date, late-model auction volume (up to three years in age) reached 1,101,400

units through the end of May, which is 10.5% higher than last year. Up by 37.6%, large

pickup volume was up the most over the five-month period, followed by subcompact

cars and compact utilities (where sales were around 29% higher). Luxury large car, large

car and mid-size van prices fell by 20% to 30%. Volume share was once again dominated

by mid-size cars (23.5%), compact cars (19.5%) and compact utilities (15.4%).

JUNE 2016 USED VEHICLE PRICE FORECAST

NADA Used Car Guide’s June 2016 forecast has prices of vehicles up to eight years in age

falling by 2.5% to 3% when compared to May. The anticipated drop is similar to the 2.5%

decline recorded for the month in 2014 and 2015.

Keeping with long-running trends, subcompact, compact and mid-size car prices are

expected to drop the most among mainstream segments. Prices for the trio are

scheduled to decline by an average of 3%, which is generally in line with last June’s

losses. Compact utility depreciation is expected to move from 2% last June to almost 3%

this year (due primarily to the aforementioned jump in used supply). Prices of pickups

and large utilities should decline by 2% or less, while prices for remaining non-luxury

segments should fall by an average of 2.5%. Luxury segment prices are expected to fall

between 2% (luxury large utility) to 2.6% (luxury large car).

Matching June, depreciation in July and August is expected to fall between 2.5% to 3%.

Prices fell by an average of 2.5% over the two months in 2014 and 2015. NADA Used Car

Guide’s full-year forecast remains unchanged from last month, with prices expected to

be down 5% to 6% on an index-basis from 2015. This would place prices below 2011

levels and mark one of the steepest non-recession declines experienced over the past

20 years.

[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS CONTINUED ]

Page 5: NADA Used ar GuideGuidelines | June 2016 NADA Used ar Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and

Guidelines | June 2016

NADA Used Car Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates.

© 2016 J.D. Power and Associates

NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power 8400 Westpark Drive, 6th Floor| McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b

5

JUNE OFFICIAL USED CAR GUIDE VALUE MOVEMENT

Trade-in values in June’s edition of the NADA Official Used Car Guide® decreased by

1.2% relative to May. This is the best retention of the past three editions, however still

worse than June 2015’s 0.9% decline.

For the month, car values were lowered by 1.6%, while trucks were reduced by only

0.7%. For the second straight month, entry

subcompact cars performed the worst. Values for

the group were lowered by an average of 3.9%. On

the opposite end of the spectrum, large pickup

values were the strongest as prices for this segment

were reduced by an average of only 0.3%. Non-

luxury vehicles were reduced by 1.2%, while luxury

vehicle values were lowered by a slightly worse

1.3%.

NEW VEHICLE DELIVERIES FALL BY 6.1%,

SAAR REACHES 17.37M UNITS

Though new vehicle sales decreased by 6.1% year-

over-year, the seasonally-adjusted annual rate

(SAAR) climbed for the third consecutive month to

reach 17.37 million units, which was a 1.9% drop

from a year ago.

DOMESTIC SALES SLIDE BY 9%

The U.S. Big Three collectively struggled, and realized

a 9% sales loss in May. The year-to-date tally of the

trio now stands just 1% above last year’s figures.

After realizing a 1.1% increase in deliveries, Fiat

Chrysler was the only member of the U.S. Big Three

to achieve positive growth last month. The Italian-owned, American automaker’s 6.4%

[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS CONTINUED ]

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Pe

rcen

t Ch

ange

Sale

s V

olu

me

(m

illio

ns)

Month

New Vehicle SalesNew Vehicles Sales YoY Change

Source: WardsAuto

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

Pe

rcen

t Ch

ange

Ne

w V

eh

icle

SA

AR

(m

illio

ns)

Month

New Vehicle SAARSAAR YoY Change

Source: WardsAuto

Page 6: NADA Used ar GuideGuidelines | June 2016 NADA Used ar Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and

Guidelines | June 2016

NADA Used Car Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates.

© 2016 J.D. Power and Associates

NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power 8400 Westpark Drive, 6th Floor| McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b

6

year-to-date sales improvement also bests its domestic peers. However, the result isn’t

as rosy as it appears since every one of FCA’s brands saw sales decline, save for Jeep and

Alfa Romeo; the latter of which sold merely 44 cars.

Ford Motor Company’s deliveries fell by 6.6% in May, while its sales total through the

first five months of the year is 3.6% higher than a year

ago. Lincoln exhibited 6.9% growth, but all of it was the

sole result of a hot-selling MKX. On the other side of the

company, the Blue Oval brand saw deliveries decrease

by 7.1% as its F-Series, Escape, Expedition and Transit

models couldn’t combat a sales decline sufficiently.

General Motors received a bit of a roughing up as its

sales plummeted 18% last month, causing the

automaker’s year-to-date deliveries to fall to 5% below

its total at this point in 2015. Every one of its brands

displayed reduced sales of 14% or greater, with volume

brand Chevrolet down nearly 19%.

IMPORT SALES DROP 3.8%, KOREANS SHINE

Importers fared better than domestics in May, but their

3.8% loss in deliveries left much to be desired. On a

bright note, import brand sales are still up 1.1% for the

year.

Of the major automobile-producing countries, South

Korea stood above the rest with a 6.3% boost in sales

last month. The successful rise was largely a result of the

brisk sales activity of Hyundai’s Santa Fe and Tucson

models (a 12% increase, collectively). Japanese

automakers, however, sold 5.4% fewer units year-over-

year after all but Subaru exhibited sales decreases.

Subaru deliveries rose by 1.1% with all of its non-sports car models beating last year’s

marks.

[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS CONTINUED ]

Mainstream Brand Performance (Units Sold)

Change From

May-16 Apr-16 May-15 Month Ago Year Ago

Buick 15,625 17,720 20,062 -12% -22%

Chevrolet 169,331 183,442 207,970 -7.7% -19%

Chrysler 24,276 22,843 29,802 6.3% -19%

Dodge 42,837 43,575 45,268 -1.7% -5.4%

Fiat 3,137 3,045 3,867 3.0% -19%

Ford 219,715 214,476 236,452 2.4% -7.1%

GMC 43,395 47,159 50,657 -8.0% -14%

Honda 133,547 132,623 137,551 0.7% -2.9%

Hyundai 71,006 62,213 63,610 14% 12%

Jeep 90,545 84,298 79,652 7.4% 14%

Kia 62,926 56,508 62,433 11% 0.8%

Mazda 28,328 26,195 29,606 8.1% -4.3%

Mini 4,595 4,796 5,833 -4.2% -21%

Mitsubishi 9,025 9,674 9,575 -6.7% -5.7%

Nissan 122,668 113,429 124,305 8.1% -1.3%

Ram 42,102 44,356 42,165 -5.1% -0.1%

Scion 6,659 6,640 4,806 0.3% 39%

Smart 420 466 837 -9.9% -50%

Subaru 50,083 50,380 49,561 -0.6% 1.1%

Toyota 185,998 179,603 208,102 3.6% -11%

Volkswagen 28,779 27,112 34,758 6.1% -17%

Source: WardsAuto

Luxury Brand Performance (Units Sold)

Change From

May-16 Apr-16 May-15 Month Ago Year Ago

Audi 18,728 17,801 18,428 5.2% 1.6%

BMW 29,017 24,951 31,003 16% -6.4%

Acura 13,561 16,206 17,042 -16% -20%

Alfa Romeo 44 60 40 -27% 10%

Cadillac 12,099 11,236 14,408 7.7% -16%

Infiniti 10,828 10,432 10,474 3.8% 3.4%

Jaguar 2,164 1,087 1,204 99% 80%

Land Rover 4,950 5,188 5,382 -4.6% -8.0%

Lexus 26,682 24,882 29,671 7.2% -10%

Lincoln 9,807 9,776 9,174 0.3% 6.9%

Mercedes-Benz 32,147 31,825 32,352 1.0% -0.6%

Porsche 4,578 5,410 4,268 -15% 7.3%

Volvo 5,536 6,169 5,023 -10% 10%

Source: WardsAuto

Page 7: NADA Used ar GuideGuidelines | June 2016 NADA Used ar Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and

Guidelines | June 2016

NADA Used Car Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates.

© 2016 J.D. Power and Associates

NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power 8400 Westpark Drive, 6th Floor| McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b

7

Relative to the largest players in the industry, Nissan North America performed

moderately well in May after selling only 1% fewer vehicles year-over-year, which

helped keep its year-to-date sales up 7.4% compared to a year ago. The Nissan brand

saw deliveries fall by 1.3%, but traditionally lower-volume models, such as the Maxima

and Frontier, performed exceptionally well. Infiniti achieved a 3.4% sales bump due to

positive gains across its utility vehicle lineup.

American Honda Motor Co. realized a 4.8% sales loss last month, but its five-month total

remains 5.7% above 2015’s figures. Acura struggled significantly and saw its deliveries

drop by over 20% after every model failed to outperform last year’s results. The Honda

brand exhibited a 2.9% sales decrease with only the HR-V and Civic improving year-over-

year.

Toyota Motor Sales experienced a 9.6% decline in deliveries last month and is now

behind last year’s pace by 2.2%. Both Toyota and Lexus saw sales fall by more than 10%

as the company’s product portfolio delivered very few sales bright spots. Scion

deliveries jumped up by 39%, however, that was achieved only through the addition of

the brand’s new iA and iM models.

Among Europeans, smaller automakers Volvo and

Jaguar Land Rover increased sales by 10% and 8%,

respectively, while their counterparts from Germany

realized a 7.2% sales decrease. Audi’s deliveries rose

by 1.6% due to growth among its Q3, Q5 and Q7

models. BMW and Mercedes-Benz, however,

headed in the other direction with deliveries down a

respective 6.4% and 0.6%.

INCENTIVES INCREASE BY DOUBLE-DIGITS

FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH

Incentive spending last month increased by nearly

11% year-over-year, and reached and average of

$3,151 per unit, according to figures from Autodata.

[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS CONTINUED ]

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

$2,650

$2,700

$2,750

$2,800

$2,850

$2,900

$2,950

$3,000

$3,050

$3,100

$3,150

$3,200

Pe

rcen

t Ch

ange

Ave

rage

Ince

nti

ve S

pe

nd

ing

Month

IncentivesAverage of Total YoY Change

Source: Autodata

Page 8: NADA Used ar GuideGuidelines | June 2016 NADA Used ar Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and

Guidelines | June 2016

NADA Used Car Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates.

© 2016 J.D. Power and Associates

NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power 8400 Westpark Drive, 6th Floor| McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b

8

Ford Motor Company’s spending climbed by almost 35%, but its per unit average was

just under $3,600.

General Motors and Chrysler both exhibited average per-unit spending of nearly $4,100

after they increased incentives by 7.7% and 26%, respectively.

Although Nissan North America’s year-over-year spending decreased by 5.1%, its

incentives of $3,242 per unit was over 48% higher than Toyota Motor Sales, which spent

about 7.6% more per unit. Meanwhile, American Honda Motor Co. cut back incentives

by an average of 9.4% and exhibited a per-unit spend of less than $1,800.

BMW’s incentives continue to climb. For the month of May, they rose by an average of

26% and reached nearly $6,200 per unit. Mercedes-Benz exhibited an incentive spend

close to $4,800 after it increased incentives by 9.7%. Its competitor, Audi, kept

incentives relatively low at $3,304 for the month even though the dollar amount is a

19% increase over last month for the four-ringed marque. Incredibly, Volkswagen’s

spend of over $4,137 per unit was higher than that of nearly every mainstream

automaker and reflected a 26% hike year-over-year.

Subaru and Land Rover remain the lowest spenders in the industry with just $610 and

$639 directed per unit, respectively.

DAYS’ SUPPLY FALLS BY 11 DAYS

The industry’s average days’ supply decreased by 11

days and ended the month of May at 59 days — a

three day increase compared to last year.

At 67 days, General Motors had the lowest supply

among the U.S. Big Three once again. Fiat Chrysler

and Ford Motor Company each reduced inventory by

13 days, with the former at 71 days and the latter at

73 days.

While American Honda Motor Co. and Nissan North

America both saw their respective days’ supply fall to 56 days, Toyota Motor Sales

reduced its inventory by 11 days to reach just 43 days at month-end.

[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS CONTINUED ]

-12

-7

-2

3

8

13

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Day C

han

ge

Day

s o

f Su

pp

ly

Month

New Vehicle Days' SupplyDays' Supply YoY Change

Source: WardsAuto

Page 9: NADA Used ar GuideGuidelines | June 2016 NADA Used ar Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and

Guidelines | June 2016

NADA Used Car Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates.

© 2016 J.D. Power and Associates

NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power 8400 Westpark Drive, 6th Floor| McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b

9

German luxury automakers BMW, Daimler and Audi each had days’ supply of 39, 44 and

52 days, respectively. Volkswagen, on the other hand, still had inventory to last 75 days

at the end of May — even after its days’ supply decreased by 18 days.

Subaru exhibited a mere 23-day supply, which is over two weeks’ worth less than the

next automaker.

[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS CONTINUED ]

Page 10: NADA Used ar GuideGuidelines | June 2016 NADA Used ar Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and

Guidelines | June 2016

NADA Used Car Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates.

© 2016 J.D. Power and Associates

NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power 8400 Westpark Drive, 6th Floor| McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b

10

EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES

According to the Bureau of Labor Services, employers added just 38,000 workers to

their payrolls in May, which is a sharp employment slowdown that could potentially

push back the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates. The employment figure

might be somewhat exaggerated since it includes 35,000 unionized Verizon employees

who have voluntarily gone on strike. Technically, the Labor Department classifies

employees on strike as unemployed. The heaviest job losses in May were in the

construction, manufacturing and mining industries.

The latest health snapshot suggests the economic recovery may have stalled this spring

— or at least temporarily. As a result of Americans dropping out of the labor force

rather than finding new jobs, the official unemployment rate fell to 4.7%. A broader

measure of unemployment — which includes people too discouraged to search for work

or are making do with a part-time job because they cannot find full-time employment —

stayed steady at 9.7%.

Additionally, the Labor Department has shrunken its initial estimates of March and

April’s employment totals by 59,000. As a result, the average monthly gain for the last

three months was 116,000 jobs, which means May’s figures were the lowest monthly

growth since September 2010.

On a brighter note, average hourly earnings rose again — 0.2% for the month — for a

gain of 2.5% for the last 12 months. The stats are an encouraging sign many more

working Americans are beginning to enjoy the benefits of a tighter labor market.

HOUSING MARKET

Apart from the jobs figures, a surge in home construction and hardy consumer spending

have contributed encouraging signs to a stronger economy. Most analysts expect

the pace of economic growth to pick up to about 2.5% over the next three months from

the first quarter’s 0.8%. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds

of U.S. economic activity, surged 1.0% last month as households bought a range of

goods and services.

[ ECONOMIC UPDATE ]

Page 11: NADA Used ar GuideGuidelines | June 2016 NADA Used ar Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and

Guidelines | June 2016

NADA Used Car Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates.

© 2016 J.D. Power and Associates

NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power 8400 Westpark Drive, 6th Floor| McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b

11

The median home price was $232,500 in April, which was up 5.4% from March and 6.3%

from April of last year. The median home price has increased by approximately $18,800

in the past year alone. The National Association of Realtors reported sales at a

seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.5 million homes for the month of April. This was an

increase of 1.7% from March, and an increase of 6% from April 2015. There was a 4.7-

month supply of housing inventory in April, up from 4.4 months in March. The total

number of homes for sale in April increased by 6.8% to 2.14 million homes nationwide,

but that was still 80,000 fewer listings than April of last year.

OIL AND GASOLINE PRICES

In May, gasoline prices rose to an expected $2.27 per gallon, which is approximately 45

cents per gallon (16.5%) less than last year. Prices were up from $2.11 per gallon in April

due to seasonality and a continuing 8-month slide in U.S. production. Both WTI and

Brent crude levels climbed to $50 per barrel by the month’s end; the first time prices

reached this level since July 2015.

Despite promises of an output freeze at current levels, OPEC members failed to reach a

consensus, leaving many speculating about the possibility of a freeze in the foreseeable

future. If an agreement is made, it is likely global supply will tighten, pulling crude

prices even higher. Additionally, rebel attacks in Nigeria cut the country’s production by

10% in May — roughly 160,000 barrels a day — which contributed to a drop in OPEC’s

monthly supply. It is important to note that as prices reach $60 – $65 per barrel, which

is seen as the new equilibrium price by many experts, the market may realign to bring

back domestic producers.

[ ECONOMIC UPDATE continued ]

Page 12: NADA Used ar GuideGuidelines | June 2016 NADA Used ar Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and

Guidelines | June 2016

NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power 8400 Westpark Drive, 6th Floor| McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b

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NADA Used Car Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates.

© 2016 J.D. Power and Associates

[ NADA OFFICIAL USED CAR GUIDE® TRENDS ]

Monthly Change in NADA Used Car Guide Value: May vs. June 2016

Annual Change in NADA Used Car Guide Value: June, 2015 vs. 2016

YTD Change in NADA Used Car Guide Value: January — June 2016

NADA Segment 2009MY 2010MY 2011MY 2012MY 2013MY 2014MY 2015MY*

Compact Car -1.8% -3.5% -2.0% -3.0% -0.7% -1.1% -0.6%

Compact Utility -1.2% -2.0% -0.7% -1.6% -0.2% 0.2% 0.4%

Large Pickup -1.3% -0.5% -0.6% -1.4% -0.3% 0.9% -0.1%

Large SUV -1.6% 0.4% -0.4% -0.9% 0.4% -0.5% -1.0%

Luxury Compact Car -1.7% -1.7% -1.6% -1.1% -0.7% -0.8% -2.1%

Luxury Compact Utility 0.6% -0.6% -0.2% -1.7% -0.3% -1.6% -2.5%

Luxury Mid-Size Car -2.0% -1.1% -1.5% -1.4% -0.8% -3.8% -2.2%

Luxury Mid-Size Utility -0.5% -0.8% 0.4% -0.9% -1.1% -1.6% -2.9%

Mid-Size Car -1.8% -2.7% -2.6% -3.3% -1.4% -1.3% -0.2%

Mid-Size Utility -1.7% -1.9% -0.7% -1.3% 0.4% -0.4% 0.3%

Mid-Size Van 0.4% -1.8% -1.5% -3.8% 0.3% 1.4% 1.3%

Premium Luxury Large Car -1.8% -2.5% -2.8% -1.2% -2.4% -2.6% -2.3%

Subcompact Car -3.2% -3.3% -3.6% -4.4% -2.3% -3.4% -0.3%*Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles.

NADA Segment 2009MY 2010MY 2011MY 2012MY 2013MY 2014MY 2015MY*

Compact Car -4.9% -4.6% -5.2% -5.3% -2.3% -6.5% -6.8%

Compact Utility -5.5% -5.6% -5.3% -4.6% -2.0% -4.0% -5.3%

Large Pickup -5.9% -5.7% -6.0% -6.3% -2.9% -1.2% -9.4%

Large SUV -5.6% -6.8% -6.1% -5.2% -0.2% -3.6% -12.5%

Luxury Compact Car -7.5% -8.2% -8.0% -5.3% -4.8% -8.2% -8.2%

Luxury Compact Utility -6.2% -6.3% -6.1% -5.1% -4.6% -6.3% -5.1%

Luxury Mid-Size Car -9.1% -9.1% -6.9% -8.3% -6.6% -13.5% -8.7%

Luxury Mid-Size Utility -6.3% -7.1% -5.9% -7.2% -8.4% -7.2% -9.3%

Mid-Size Car -3.6% -3.3% -3.9% -5.9% -1.1% -6.5% -6.5%

Mid-Size Utility -5.4% -7.6% -6.3% -5.9% 0.7% -5.1% -4.6%

Mid-Size Van -3.7% -2.3% -4.2% -7.0% 2.4% -0.1% -5.2%

Premium Luxury Large Car -9.6% -8.3% -10.3% -6.8% -8.3% -5.3% -4.4%

Subcompact Car -4.3% -5.2% -8.2% -9.3% -5.4% -10.3% -4.3%*Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles.

NADA Segment* 7YR 6YR 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR 1YR

Compact Car -11.6% -9.8% -5.7% -9.4% -6.2% -8.6% -4.0%

Compact Utility -5.3% 0.0% -4.3% -6.0% -4.7% -7.9% -2.3%

Large Pickup -0.3% -1.5% 2.1% -0.3% -3.6% 2.7% 10.3%

Large SUV 3.6% 3.2% 4.8% 3.4% 8.0% 1.3% 12.2%

Luxury Compact Car -5.4% -7.4% -10.4% -5.6% -0.6% 0.3% -6.6%

Luxury Compact Utility 9.6% 6.2% -4.3% -0.3% -4.9% -1.4% -3.0%

Luxury Mid-Size Car -8.3% 1.1% -0.6% -2.2% -1.5% -2.3% -5.3%

Luxury Mid-Size Utility 1.6% -4.2% -0.6% -1.7% -5.0% -2.5% -3.2%

Mid-Size Car -8.2% -9.2% -6.6% -7.7% -3.7% -4.7% -4.9%

Mid-Size Utility -8.2% -0.2% 3.5% -4.5% 1.8% -4.5% -5.9%

Mid-Size Van -2.0% -4.1% 17.3% -10.2% 0.5% 4.4% 4.1%

Premium Luxury Large Car 2.6% -2.9% -15.3% -4.8% 0.7% 14.5% 3.3%

Subcompact Car -19.8% -13.1% -22.9% -22.0% -9.8% -12.6% -5.7%*Value differences can be the result of changes in segment mix (i.e. models entering/leaving), model redesigns, and overall market performance.

Page 13: NADA Used ar GuideGuidelines | June 2016 NADA Used ar Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and

Guidelines | June 2016

NADA Used Car Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates.

© 2016 J.D. Power and Associates

NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power 8400 Westpark Drive, 6th Floor| McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b

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AT NADA USED CAR GUIDE

About NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power and Associates

Since 1933, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of vehicle valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the United States and worldwide. NADA Used Car Guide’s team collects and analyzes over one million combined automotive and truck wholesale and retail transactions per month. Its guidebooks, auction data, analysis and data solutions offer automotive/truck, finance, insurance and government professionals, the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business decisions. Visit nada.com/b2b to learn more about solutions for your business and nada.com/usedcar to stay abreast of the latest used and new vehicle market trends.

Financial Industry, Accounting, Legal, OEM Captive Steve Stafford 800.248.6232 x7275 [email protected]

Director, Sales and Customer Service Dan Ruddy 800.248.6232 x4707 [email protected]

Automotive Dealers, Auctions, Insurance, Credit Unions, Fleet, Lease, Rental Industry, Government Doug Ott 800.248.6232 x4710 [email protected]

Director, Business Development James Gibson 800.248.6232 x7136 [email protected]

What’s New

The new NADA Values Online introduces New Vehicle Values, a range of values that provide new vehicle pricing guidance based on actual market transactions and market influencers. It also includes inventory valuation, vehicle valuation trends and a custom reporting tool to help you see vehicle values from every angle. With NADA Values Online, you have the data and insight you need to make better business decisions and see better outcomes.

See how we can help your business >> Go to nada.com/valuesonline.

On the Road

Say, “Hi” to Mike Stanton at the 2016 NIADA Convention and Expo in Las Vegas, June 13-16.

Larry Dixon will present on a panel covering collateral risk and vehicle values at the 2016 Southeastern Credit Union Conference and

Exposition on June 16 in Orlando.

Jonathan Banks will share NADA Used Car Guide’s latest research on used value pricing at the annual Automotive Resource Network

Conference in Atlanta, which runs August 2 – 3.

Commercial truck senior analyst, Chris Visser, will attend the 2016 Commercial Vehicle Outlook Conference in Dallas, August 24 – 25.

Page 14: NADA Used ar GuideGuidelines | June 2016 NADA Used ar Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and

Guidelines | June 2016

NADA Used Car Guide® and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association, used under license by J.D. Power and Associates.

© 2016 J.D. Power and Associates

NADA Used Car Guide, a division of J.D. Power 8400 Westpark Drive, 6th Floor| McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b

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NADA USED CAR GUIDE CONSULTING SERVICES

NADA Used Car Guide’s market intelligence team leverages a database of nearly 200 million automotive transactions

and more than 100 economic and automotive market-related series to describe the factors driving current trends to

help industry stakeholders make more informed decisions. Analyzing data at both wholesale and retail levels, the team

continuously provides content that is both useful and usable to the automotive industry, financial institutions,

businesses and consumers.

Complemented by NADA Used Car Guide’s analytics team, which maintains and advances its internal forecasting models

and develops customized forecasting solutions for automotive clients, the market intelligence team is responsible for

publishing white papers, special reports and the Used Car & Truck Blog. Throughout every piece of content, the team

strives to go beyond what is happening in the automotive industry to confidently answer why it is happening and how it

will impact the market in the future.

VP, Vehicle Analysis & Analytics Jonathan Banks 800.248.6232 x4709 [email protected]

Senior Manager, Market Intelligence Larry Dixon 800.248.6232 x4713 [email protected]

Senior Automotive Analyst David Paris 800.248.6232 x7044 [email protected]

Senior Automotive Analyst Joseph Choi 800.248.6232 x4706 [email protected]

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Connect with NADA Used Car Guide

White Papers NADA Used Car Guide’s white papers and special reports aim to inform industry stakeholders on current and expected used vehicle price movement to better maximize today’s opportunities and manage tomorrow’s risk.

Used Car & Truck Blog Written and managed by the Market Intelligence team, the Used Car & Truck Blog analyzes market data, lends insight into industry trends and highlights relevant events.

Perspective

Leveraging data from various industry

sources and NADA Used Car Guide’s

analysts, Perspective takes a deep dive

into a range of industry trends to

determine why they are happening and

what to expect in the future.

Guidelines Updated monthly with a robust data set from various industry sources and NADA Used Car Guide’s proprietary analysis, Guidelines provides the insight needed to make decisions in today’s market.

Read our Blog nada.com/usedcar

Follow Us on Twitter @NADAUsedCarGde

Find Us on Facebook Facebook.com/NADAUsedCarGuide

Watch Us on YouTube Youtube.com/NADAUsedCarGuide

Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the contents available in this report (“Guidelines”). Guidelines is provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via email or the NADA Used Car Guide website, you agree not to reprint, reproduce, or distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of J.D. Power and Associates.