nasdaq ipaa presentation april, 2019
TRANSCRIPT
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Energy Capital Markets:
A Sector in Transition
Nasdaq IPAA Presentation
April, 2019
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Agenda
Capital Flows What’s driving recent energy market performance?
Valuation & Fundamentals Why is deep value money still on the sidelines?
Looking Ahead: 2020-2021 What macro & sector developments can we expect?
Conclusion How to craft a winning strategy
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Capital Flows What’s Driving Performance &
What Does That Tell Us?
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5%
0.46% 0.32%
(3%) (6%)
(11%)
(15%) (15%) (17%)
(21%)
Healthcare Utilities Cons. Disc. Technology Real Estate Cons. Staples Financials Industrial Materials Energy
2018 Equity Sector Performance
YTD Equity % Chg.
19%
17% 16% 15% 15%
13%
10% 10% 10% 8%
6%
Technology Real Estate Industrial Energy Cons. Disc. Comm.Svcs.
Cons.Staples
Utilities Materials Financials Healthcare
Q1'2019 Equity Sector Performance
YTD Equity % Chg.
After Being The Worst Performer In 2018, Energy Is
One Of The Better Performers In 2019
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90
100
110
120
130
140
E&P Stocks vs. Oil Prices in Q1'19:
Despite the Strength, E&Ps Continue to Lag Oil Prices
XOP WTI Oil Price
WTI Oil Price +32%
XOP +16%
Even With Strong Gains, Energy Stocks
Continue to Disappoint
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14%
7% 6% 2%
(10%) (12%)
(19%)
(26%) (27%)
(32%)
Utilities Healthcare Real Estate Cons. Staples Cons. Disc. Technology Industrial Energy Materials Financials
2018 Fund Flows by Sector: Energy's Equity Losses Corresponded with the Exodus
of Invested Capital
YTD Fund Flows % Chg.
91%
21% 13% 12% 12% 9%
9% 8%
3%
(0.45%) (3%)
Comm. Svcs. Real Estate Materials Technology Cons.Staples
Healthcare Utilities Cons. Disc. Energy Industrial Financials
2019 Fund Flows by Sector: Despite Energy's Solid Equity Gains, Fund Flows Trail Other Sectors
YTD Fund Flows % Chg.
Energy Continues to Lag Other Sectors in
Fund Flows
Source: Lipper
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44%
21% 19%
18% 17% 16%
10% 10%
6%
18%
(10%)
(23%)
(11%)
(1%)
19%
(12%)
(7%)
30%
Land Drillers Mid E&Ps Large Services Large E&Ps Refiners MLPs Integrateds OffshoreDrillers
Small E&Ps
Short covering played a role in the Q1 gains of the Energy sector The 3 highlighted sub-sectors account for ~75% of the S&P Energy Index
Avg. QTD Equity % Chg. Avg. QTD SI Position % Chg.
Q1’19 Energy Performance vs. Short Interest
Positioning
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Valuation & Fundamentals What Is Keeping The Long/Value Money
On The Sidelines?
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0%
7%
14%
21%
28%
35%
Technology Financials Healthcare ConsumerDiscretionary
Industrials ConsumerStaples
Energy Utilities Materials Telco Services
Sector Breakdown of S&P 500 by Market Cap Over Past Decade:
While Energy's Absolute Market Cap Has Gone Up, the Sector's Relative Weighting Has Lost Share To Technology
Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Energy dropped 62% in
Relative Market Cap Weight -
from 13% to 5%
Putting the Market into Perspective by Size
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14%
3%
5%
10% 10%
7%
3% 3%
21%
13%
10%
18%
6%
7%
11% 11%
8%
4% 3%
19%
10%
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Health Care Materials Energy Industrials ConsumerDiscretionary
ConsumerStaples
Utilities Real Estate InformationTechnology
Financials CommunicationServices
Energy has 5% stock value relative to 7% earnings contribution, suggesting the sector is undervalued
Market Cap Weight EPS Next 12 Months Weight
S&P 500 Sector View: Market Cap
Weightings vs. Percentage of Earnings
Source: FactSet April 2019
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11 11 Energy Returns Have Improved But
Still Lag Other Sectors
Source: FactSet April 2019. ROCE Estimates based upon data as of April 3, 2019
20%
15%
13% 13% 12%
6% 4%
19%
15% 14%
12% 11%
6% 5%
18%
16%
13% 15%
14%
6% 5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
ConsumerDiscretionary
Industrials Materials InformationTechnology
Health Care Utilities Energy
2017
2018
2019E
S&P Mid Cap ROCE by Sector
ROCE = EBIT / (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
19% 19% 20%
16% 14%
11%
5% 6%
23%
19% 19% 17%
16%
12%
8%
5%
24%
21% 19% 18%
16%
13%
8% 6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
InformationTechnology
ConsumerDiscretionary
ConsumerStaples
Industrials Health Care CommunicationServices
Energy Utilities
2017
2018
2019E
S&P 500 ROCE by Sector
ROCE = EBIT / (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
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12 12 Refiners Continue To Outpace All Other Energy
Sub-sectors In Returns
8.8%
8.1%
5.7%
2.4%
6.1%
4.0%
3.2%
1.8%
12.7%
10.1% 9.9%
9.3%
8.7%
7.8%
6.5%
0.1%
11.8%
9.9% 9.6%
7.5% 7.6%
6.9%
7.5%
6.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Refiner Midstream Integrateds E&P - Large E&P - Mid E&P - Small Services - Large Services -Mid/Small
Return on Capital Employed By Energy Sub-Sector
2017 2018 2019 Est. ROCE = EBIT / (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
Source: FactSet April 2019. ROCE Estimates based upon data as of April 3, 2019
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Looking Ahead What Developments Can We Expect
in 2020 – 2021?
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What Can We Expect in 2019-2020?
Challenges from the Macro Environment
Regulation on Corporate Access
Unbundling of Research & Trading
Increased Dominance of ETFs and
Index Funds
Contraction of sell-side
Small & Mid-caps will receive less research
coverage
Decrease in conference & meeting quality
International marketing particularly difficult
Issuers will need to set up their own
investor meetings
Passive assets are poised to surpass
actively managed assets in the U.S. in
2021 according to Moody’s Investor
Services
Passive assets already hold 35% of S&P
500
How to make the nuances of your
investment thesis matter in a market with
less discretionary capital?
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More Macro Headwinds Less Exclusive Focus On Energy
Increased Importance of Generalist
Investors
Analysts covering multiple unrelated sectors
Issuers need to simplify the investment
thesis
Think in investment themes vs. sectors
How do you compete outside of your sector?
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Sector Trends & Developments in 2020-2021
• No Conviction On
Sustainability Of Oil Prices
+$60
• Perception That Energy Is
The New Tobacco
• Aramco IPO Planned For
2021
Tailwinds
• US Becomes Net Energy
Exporter On Consistent Basis
• IMO 2020
• Improved Financial Results
• Uptick in Reverse Mergers
• IPO Market & Pipeline
• Public M&A
Headwinds
• 2020 Election Year
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(29%) (29%)
(21%)
(17%)
(6%)
CXO ECA XEC CHK FANG
E&P Equity Performance Post Acquisition Announcement Date Through Q1'19:
Markets Have Penalized Companies for Buying Other Public Companies
Equity % Chg.
M&A: A Necessary Catalyst to Excite Investors But Impediments to Deal Consummation Still Exist
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Sector Trends & Developments in 2020-2021
• No Conviction On
Sustainability Of Oil Prices
+$60
• Perception That Energy Is
The New Tobacco
• Aramco IPO Planned For
2021
Tailwinds
• US Becomes Net Energy
Exporter On Consistent Basis
• International Maritime
Organization (IMO) 2020
• Improved Financial Results
• Uptick in Reverse Mergers
• IPO Market & Pipeline
• Public M&A
Headwinds
• 2020 Election Year
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Other trends for 2020-2021 Increased Focus on Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG):
A Challenge Opportunity
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Index Long-Only Activist
Investors Across All Strategies Are Focusing On ESG • No longer just a European phenomenon
• No longer only the domain of small pension funds/religious endowments
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Sustainable Investing Rarely Implies Divesting: Being Best in Class within Oil & Gas Can Help Issuers Attract New Money
institutional assets are invested
sustainably
$1 of Every $4
institutional assets are invested
sustainably
$23T
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The “G” is the Most Important Part of ESG: Top
Governance Priorities for Investors
Board Composition, with a particular focus on enhanced diversity
Board-level expertise that is more aligned with business goals
Increased attention to climate risk and the environment
Enhanced attention to talent and human capital management
Compensation that is more aligned with performance and strategy
1
4
3
2
5
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In Conclusion How To Craft A Winning Strategy
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In Conclusion: How Should Issuers Position
Themselves to Win?
• Acknowledge past performance as a steward of capital
• Simplify the investment case
• Demonstrate competitiveness relative to stocks in other sectors
• Focus on returns rather than growth
• Cut costs, reduce debt & compensate shareholders
• Be transparent about managing risk for the future
• Stress test around carbon tax and reserves write downs
• Focus on lowering carbon intensity
• Institute incentive metrics that align with long-term strategy
• Increase female representation at board and management level
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Thank You!
Tamar Essner
Director, Nasdaq Energy Capital
Markets
+1 212 312 1344