national accounts briefing september quarter 2014
TRANSCRIPT
National Accounts Briefing
September Quarter 2014
2
Real GDP growth moderated in the quarter
Note: The range of market expectations was 2.7 per cent to 3.3 per cent for through-the-year growth and 0.4 per cent to 0.9 per cent for quarterly growth.
0.3
2.7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
Quarterly
Per cent
Through the year
Per cent
3
Strong contributions from consumption and net exports over the year
Note: This chart shows through the year contributions to GDP growth. The sum of individual components does not add to the aggregate due to rounding.
1.4
0.3
-0.9
0.20.4
1.6
2.7
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
GDPNet Exports
Change inInventories
New PublicFinal Demand
New Business Investment
Dwelling Investment
Household Consumption
Percentage points, tty Percentage points, tty
4
Nominal GDP fell with commodity pricesin the quarter
-0.1
2.7
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
Quarterly
Per cent
Through the year
Per cent
5
Real gross domestic income growth has fallen with the terms of trade
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
Per cent Per cent
Through the year
Quarterly
6
Terms of trade continued to decline
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
Index (2012-13=100)
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
Export prices
Import prices
Index (Sep-04=100)
7Note: This chart shows percentage point contributions to through the year growth. Iron ore data is sourced from ABS trade data. Coal includes coke and briquettes. Other goods and services is calculated as a residual of the total.Source: ABS cat. no. 5302.0 and ABS trade data.
Exports driven by iron ore
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
Percentage pointsPercentage points
Other goods and services
Coal
Iron ore
8
Household consumption
0.5
2.5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
Through the year
Quarterly
Per cent Per cent
9
Components of household consumption-4 -2 0 2 4
-4 -2 0 2 4
Cigarettes and tobacco
Purchase of vehicles
Food
Insurance and other financial services
Operation of vehicles
Health
Transport services
Rent and other dwelling services
Hotels, cafes and restaurants
Education services
Other goods and services
Recreation and culture
Alcoholic beverages
Furnishings and household equipment
Clothing and footwear
Communications
Electricity, gas and other fuel
Per cent, qoq
10
Dwellings investment fell in the quarter
-0.9
6.8
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
Through the year
Quarterly
Per cent Per cent
11Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and 8731.0.
30
35
40
45
50
9
10
11
12
13
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
$billion '000
Private building approvals (RHS)
Dwelling investment (LHS)
Continued strength in the dwellings pipeline
12
New business investment continued to fall
-0.7
-5.4
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
Per centPer cent
Through the year
Quarterly
13
Business conditions have caught up with confidence
Source: NAB Monthly Business Survey
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14
Net balanceNet balance
Confidence
Conditions
14
New public final demand remained weak
-1.3
1.0
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
Per centPer cent
Through the year
Quarterly
15
Pick-up in leading employment indicators
Source: ABS cat. no. 6354.0, ANZ and Department of Employment.
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14
Per cent, ttyPer cent, tty
ABS Job Vacancies
ANZ Job Advertisements
DoE Internet Vacancies Index