media briefing 5 june 2020 - central statistics office › en › media › csoie › newsevents ›...
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National AccountsInternational Accounts
Quarter 1 2020 Provisional
Media Briefing5 June 2020
National Accounts
Quarter 1 2020 – Provisional
Quarter 1 2020 provisional – Constant Prices, Seasonally Adjusted
Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly Changes
GDP +1.2%
GNP +0.1%
GDP
GNP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
€billion
GDP GNP
Q1 2020 GDP % Change by Country Seasonally Adjusted
%
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Spain Euro area (19from 2015)
Estonia EU (27 from2020)
Austria Denmark UnitedKingdom
Netherlands Finland Sweden Romania Ireland
Sector Growth by Share of GDP and Growth Rate – Q1 2020 Seasonally Adjusted
Industry (excl. Construction)
+15.4%
Construction-1.6%
Distribution, transport, hotels and restaurants
- 12.7%Information andcommunication + 1.5%
Financial and insurance activities -0.4%
Real estate activities+0.1%
Professional, adminand support services
-5.3%
Public admin, educationand health
+0.2%
Arts, entertainment and other services- 0.1%
Agriculture, forestry and fishing -4.7%
Trends in Sector Growth Q1 2017 =100
60
80
100
120
140
160
2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1
Industry (excl.Construction)Construction
Distribution, transport,hotels and restaurantsInformation andcommunicationProfessional, admin andsupport servicesPublic admin, educationand healthTaxes - Subsidies
Expenditure by Share of GDP and Growth Rate – Q1 2020 Seasonally Adjusted
PCE-4.7%
Govt.
+0.5%+ +Invest-ment0.0%
Exports
+0.2%Imports
-1.5%+ - = GDP+1.2%
+ + + = GDP-
Q–on–Q % Changes:
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales March 2020 vs March 2019
-60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%
Food, Bev & Tobacco
Pharma
All retail businesses
Fuel
Furniture
Dept Stores
Motor Trades
Clothes
Bars
March 2020 SA Vol Growth March 2019 SA Vol Growth
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
All retail businesses
Retail sale of food
Retail sale of household equipment
Retail sale of electrical goods
Retail sale of textiles, clothing and footwear
Retail sale of books, newspapers, stationery and other goods (4753,4761 to 4765,4776 to4778)
Other retail sales
Retail Sales : Percentage of total sales on-line
2020M04 2020M03 2020M02
Trends in Net Exports, Final Domestic Demand and Modified Final Domestic Demand 2017 Q1 = 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1
€billion
ind
ex
Exports (right axis) Imports (right axis) Net Exp FDD Modified FDD
Contribution of Domestic Demand and Net Exports to Quarterly GDP
Contribution of Modified Domestic Demand and Modified Net Exports to Quarterly GDP
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1
%
Total DomesticDemand
Net Exports
-5
0
5
10
2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1
Modified TotalDomesticDemand
Net Exports,adjustedfor IP imports
Personal Consumption ExpenditureQ1 2020/Q4 2019
Total -4.7% (seasonally adjusted)
Goods - 5.2%
Services - 0.8%
Capital Formation Q1 2020/Q4 2019
Total -0.0% (seasonally adjusted)
Building and construction -1.0%
Machinery and equipment *
Intangibles *
Machinery and equipment excl. aircraft leasing *
Intangibles excl. R&D service
imports and trade in IP *
Composition of Capital Formation Q1 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1
€billion
B&C M&E Intangibles
GDP, GNP and Net Factor Flows Q1 2017 – Q1 2020
-40,000
-20,000
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1
GDP NFF GNP
€million
Quarterly Summary
GDP +1.2% GNP +0.1%
Expenditure: Output:• PCE -4.7%• Government Expenditure +0.5%• Investment 0.0%• Net Exports up €1,877m
• Final Domestic Demand -1.3%• Modified Final Domestic Demand -1.6%
• Industry (excl. Construction) +15.4%• Construction -1.6%• Information & Communication +1.5%• Professional, Admin & Support -5.3%• Public Administration +0.2%• Financial & Insurance Activities -0.4%• Distribution, transport, hotels and
restaurants -12.7%• Net Factor Outflows €19,289m
(€20,565m in Q4 2019)
Year-on-Year Growth Rates
Q1 2020 Q1 2019
GDP +4.6% +7.6%
GNP +5.5% +6.2%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
€billion
GDP GNP
GDP
GNP
Personal Consumption ExpenditureQ1 2020/Q1 2019
Broad-based declines across goods and services with notable decreases in expenditure abroad and private cars. Some expenditure was up including communications expenditure.
Total - 2.5%
Goods - 4.3%Services - 1.2%
Capital Formation Q1 2020/Q1 2019
Total +197.2%Building and Construction +8.3%
New dwellings +17.3%
All other B&C +5.9%
Remainder of Cap Formation +286.5%
Machinery and Equipment *
Intangibles *
Excluding R&D service
imports and trade in IP *
International Accounts
Quarter 1 2020
Current Account Balance, % of GDP
BOP Q1 2020 - Current Account
Q1 2019 Q1 2020
Current Account Balance €10,990m -€15,208m
• Merchandise surplus €32,151m €34,409m
• Services deficit -€1,224m -€29,290m
• Net Income outflow -€19,938m -€20,327m
Balance Over Time
BOP Q1 2020 - Current AccountQ1 2020 y-o-y Change
Merchandise exports €59,452m +€2,307m
imports €25,043m +€49m
Services exports €51,519m +€5,035m
imports €80,808m +€33,100m
Primary Income inflows €26,005m +€3,156m
outflows €45,232m +€3,701m
Direct investment profit and interest inflows €5,674m +€992m
Direct investment profit and interest outflows €22,594m +€873m
Goods Exports and Imports
Exports Imports
International Trade to BOP Merchandise
Service Exports
Computer Services
Business Services
Financial Services
Transport
Royalties/Licences
Insurance
Tourism & Travel
Other Services n.e.s
Repairs and Processing
Communications
Royalties/Licences
Business Services
Financial Services
Tourism & Travel
Insurance
Repairs and Processing
Computer Services
Transport
Other Services n.e.s
Communications
Service Imports
Royalties Imports in the Pharma and ICT sector
Direct Investment Income
Direct Investment Income Outflows
FDI Income: Quarterly Profits Outflows
Trade, Income and CA with UK
Financing Q1 2020
International Investment Position Q1 2020
International Accounts Summary
• Current Account balance in Q1 2020 of -€15.2bn due to continued large imports of intellectual property.
• Reduced royalty imports in the pharmaceutical sector.
• Current Account balance with the UK back in deficit of €1,166m, but with continued high computer services exports.
• International Accounts largely unaffected in Q1 2020 by COVID19.
Main Results - Quarter 1 2020
Key Indicators (constant prices)
Q1/2020 vs Q4/2019
GDP 1.2%
GNP 0.1%
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) -4.7%
Modified Domestic Demand -1.6%