Paulo Nobre, V. B. Capistrano, M. Baptista Jr., E. Giarolla, M. Bottino, D. S. Moreira, S. N. Figueroa, D. Alvin, P. Kubota, J. P. Bonatti, E. Ramirez, B. Antunes, T. Tarasova, F. Pesquero, M. H. Costa, G. Sampaio, M.

Cardoso, C. Augusto Jr, M. Sanches, H. C. Soares, F. Casagrande, F. Odorizi, C. Fonseca, A. A. de Castro, A. D. Nobre, A. Cuartas, A. Lanfer, J. Pendharkar, J. Silva, R. Tedeschi, and C. A. Nobre

National Institute for Space Research – INPE

PFPMCG Meeting, São Paulo, 18 February 2016

The Challenge:• To build an Earth System Model in Brazil, from state of

the art component models in the nation and abroad:

1. To incorporate expert knowledge about ocean-ice-atmosphere-biosphere interactions of relevance to Brazil;

2. To provide the scientific foundations of global climate change scenarios for mitigation and adaptation policies to climate change in Brazil;

3. To contribute to form a new generation of modeling-capable earth system scientists in the nation.

From Weather Forecasting to Global Climate Change Scenarios

Extreme Events Hit Brazil

T666L96

T213L64

T126L42

T062L28

Surface Temperature Trend in Brazil

Super Typhoon Haiyan 2014

24 h FCST CPTEC-AGCM (T666L64)

CPTEC T666L64 24h FCST TRMM RAINFALL OBS

Courtesy: Silvio N. Figueroa, INPE/CPTEC

BESM/CPTEC ENSO

FORECAST

OND 2015 SST FCSTIC: Sept/2015

OND 2015 SSTersst

Courtesy: Carlos R. de Sousa, Rede CLIMA

Abrupt4xCO2 - piControl

INPE/BESM 2.5 NCAR/CCSM 4

GFDL/CM 2.1 MOHC/HadGEM2-ES

Sou

rce:

Cap

istr

ano

et

al (

20

15

) in

pre

par

atio

n

Air Temperature Change

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

(i) full use of CPTEC’s experience and sub-models

(ii) collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad

– Take CPTEC Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model as the structuring building-block

– Use GFDL/FMS coupler to add components: • Dynamic vegetation with carbon cycle;

• Continental hydrology-ocean coupling;

• Ocean carbon cycle;

• Enhanced sea ice;

Component Models

RIVER ICE

BioChemistry

Predictability

Fire

Hydrology Land Use

RIVERS

H2O

Heat

CO2

Trace Gases

Particles

2080-2099 A1B 2080-2099 A1B

LAND (INLAND – INPE/CCST)

ATMOSPHERE (INPE/CPTEC)

OCEAN (MOM5 – NOAA/GFDL)

ATMOS CHEMISTRY (HAMMOZ- MPI)

FMS COUPLER

CO2

besm.ccst.inpe.br

restrito.ccst.inpe.br

Tupã

BESM Runtime Environmet

softwares

GrADS

Fortran

BESM Automated Run Suite

BESM2.5 300 years 2007-2300 Control run

Courtesy: Bianca Antunes, Manoel Baptista

NEC SX-6

15 TFlops sustained

100 Pbytes disk/tape storage

NEC SX3

NEC SX4

NEC SX6

Courtesy: J. P. Bonatti, INPE/CPTEC

MCTI/INPE-REDE CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputer for Climate Change

Research

CRAY XE6

Brazil Participation on theEarth System Grid Federation - ESGF

Brazil

Courtesy: Wander Mendes, INPE/BESM

Amazon Deforestation: Increased El Niño Conditions

PRECIPITATION

TEMPERATURE

Source: Nobre et al. (2009)

Statistically significant departures are shaded

Enhanced PredictabilityRainfall over Cold Waters

Source: Nobre et al. (2012)

OBSERVATIONS

BESM-OA2.3

AGCM, Obs SST

AGCM, BESM SST

Ocean Carbon Cycle

pCO2

Source: De Farias et al (2012)

Salinity

ERA interim REANALISYS BESM 2.3 BESM 2.3.1

BESM UPPER LEVEL FLOW

BESM AMAZON RAINFALL

GPCP BESM 2.3 BESM 2.3.1

Bottino and Nobre (2016) to be Submitted

Atlantic ITCZ simulations

ERAI

NCCS (bias = -1.72; rmse = 2.95)

CTRL (bias = -4.38; rmse = 5.11)

V at 10 m (m/s): 5N 30W +/- 2

ITCZ Meridional Migration

Bottino and Nobre (2016) to be Submitted

Atlantic Meridional Mode

SST, Taux, Tauy Joint EOF1

BESM2.5 historical run (11.4%)ERSSTv4 (9.3%)

Courtesy: S. Veiga, INPE/PGMET

Arctic Icein CMIP5 Models

Courtesy: Fernanda Casagrande, INPE/PGCCST

Sea Surface Temperature

BESM2.5 historical run

Courtesy: V. Capistrano, INPE/BESM

Equilibrium Climate Sensibility

SST

PRECIP

Ensemble BESM2-5 GLOBAL MEANl

CMIP5 INTERCOPARISONS

Courtesy: Renata Tedeschi, BESM/INPE

BESM2.5 CMIP5 Runs 1850-2100

Air Temperature at 2m

Courtesy: V. Capistrano, INPE/BESM

BESM’s AMOC Strength4xCO2 Simulation

Courtesy: Sandro Veiga, PGCCST/INPE

Annual Mean Precipitation Variation

INCREASE

DECREASE

BESM Extreme Events in a Changed Climate

Source: Pesquero, Nobre et al (TBS)

BESM Extreme Events in a Changed Climate

Consecutive Dry Days Extreme Precipitation Days

Increase

Source: Pesquero, Nobre et al (TBS)

U10m T2m q2m

Co

ntr

ol

Jim

enez

SL

u10m T2m q2m

Control 7.90 0.30 2.88

Jimenez SL 1.19 0.17 4.30

u10m T2m q2m

Control 15.57 0.40 6.45

Jimenez SL 1.22 0.17 3.79

Normalized root-mean-square-error (NRMSE). NRMSE over the ocean.

Courtesy V. Capistrano, INPE/BESM

PBL PARAMETERIZATION

• Subgrid tiling

• Fires (ignition, combustion, spreading,

emissions)

• Croplands representation (Sugarcane,

Wheat, Soybean and Maize)

• River discharge and seasonally flooded

areas

• River and lake evaporation

• Anthropogenic land use (deforestation)

• Specific representation of South

American ecosystems

• Soil fertility, enhanced ecophysiology

• Parameter optimization (Optis)

INLAND 2 (current version)

INLAND: Integrated Model of Land Surface Processes

Courtesy.: Manoel Cardoso, INPE/CCST

Vegetation Types

Biomass Density

Temp BIAS (oC) (CM2.1/GFDL)

Temp BIAS (CM2.1 INLAND Over the Amazon)

Global Mean TEMPERATURE AMAZON Mean TEMPERATURE

INLAND coupling to CM2.1/NOAA-GFDL

Tem

p.

(oC

)

Tem

p.

(oC

)

Fon

te: D

em

erv

alS.

M

ore

ira

Courtesy.:Demerval Soares, BESM/INPE

REANALYSIS LAD-CM2.1 INLAND-CM2.1REANALYSIS LAD-CM2.1 INLAND-CM2.1

High ResolutionOcean Modeling

COLA/MOM

1/4

Courtesy: Prof. J. Shukla; E. Giarolla

BESM/MOM4p1

• TOPAZ-MOM5/BESM

• Validação:

- Avaliação da representação

das descargas fluviais

- Avaliação da representação

dos fluxos de carbono entre

oceano e atmosfera

Ocean Biogeochemistry

Modelo de biogeoquímica oceânica: Tracers of Ocean Phytoplankton with Allometric Zooplankton

(TOPAZ) (Dunne et al. 2010; Dunne et al. 2013), desenvolvido pelo GFDL/NOAA;

Composto por 30 traçadores que

descrevem os ciclos do carbono,

nitrogênio, fósforo, alcalinidade,

sílica, ferro, oxigênio e material

litogênico;

Concentração de Nitrato

Carbono Inorgânico Dissolvido

Courtesy Helena Soares BESM/INPE

Surface Waves Coupling

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/

Ocean Waves Energy Flux Climatology

Courtesy Andre Lanfer, INPE/CPTEC

BESM PROJECT Production

FAPESP School on Global Climate ModelingOctober 2011, Ubatuba/SP.

Professors: Dr. C. A. Nobre, MCTI; Dr. P. Nobre, INPE; Dr. G. Brasseur, Max Plank Institute –Alemanha; Dr. A. D. Nobre, INPE; Dr. J. Carton, University of Maryland – EUA; Dr. L. Drude,UFC; Dr. M. Coe, Woods Hole Research Center – EUA; Dr. A. V. Krusche,-USP; Dr. P. N.Vinaychandran, IISc–India; Dr. C. Gnanaseelan, IITM – India.

FAPESP Advanced Lectures on the Physical Processes in theBrazilian Earth System Model (BESM): Cloud MicrophysicsFebruary 2014, Cachoeira Paulista, SP.Professors: Dr. H. Morrison – NCAR, USA; Dr. S. N. Figueroa – INPE; Dra. R. I. Albrecht – INPE;Dr. G. P. Almeida –UFC.

FAPESP Advanced Lectures on the Physical Processes in theBrazilian Earth System Model (BESM): Planetary Boundary layerand Turbulence ParameterizationMarch 2014, Cachoeira Paulista, SP.

Professors: Dr. S. Park, NCAR- USA; Dr. S. N. Figueroa - INPE; Dr. O. Moraes – MCTI; Dr. O.Acevedo – UFSM; Dr. F. Denardim – UFRS.

FAPESP School on Global Climate Modeling Coupled DataAssimilation

27 July 2015, Cachoeira Paulista, SP.Professor Dr. S. LAKSHMIVARAHAN - School of Computer Science University of Oklahoma.

FAPESP School of cloud resolving models for development andimprovement of moist physical parameterizationsNovember 2015, Cachoeira Paulista, SP.Professor: Marat Khairoutdinov - at the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, StonyBrook University.

Summer Schools

2011 - Ubatuba/SP

2015 - Cachoeira Paulista/SP

Participating Institutions

• Coordination: INPE

• Atmosphere: – INPE/CPTEC, USP, UFSM, UFCG, NCAR

• Ocean: – INPE/CPTEC, NOAA/GFDL, NASA/GISS

• Surface: – INPE/CCST, USP, UFV, UFSM, WHRC, EMBRAPA

• Chemistry: – INPE, IITM, NCAR, GFDL

What is the Brazilian contribution to the knowledge of global climate change and

especially climate change in Brazil?• A good representation of precipitation/convection

in the Amazonia and SACZ regions is important to a good global climate representation. They are sources of humidity (Amazonia) and Rossby waves(SACZ).

• The majority of global models, althoughrepresenting the general features of South America, presents deficiencies in this representation.

Concluding Remarks

• BESM-OA fully coupled global model has been completed, allowing Brazil to inaugurate its participation in the CMIP5 global climate change model intercomparison project.

• Next steps: Developing BESM into a Full ESM, with dynamical vegetation, continental hydrology and atmospheric chemistry, toward CMIP6:– High Resolution Earth System Scenarios

– Climate variability and extreme events research

– Paleoclimate Studies

ATMOSPHERE OCEAN SURFACE

AEROSOLS & CHEMISTRY

Silvio N. FigueroaJosé P. BonattiPaulo KubotaEnver Ramirez

José F. PesqueroJosiane Silva

Renata Tedeschi

Science & Development Team

Débora AlvimJayant PendharkarTatiana Tarasova

Paulo NobreVinícius B. Capistrano

Emanuel GiarollaHelena SoaresAndre Lanfer

Raquel Leite Mello

Gilvan SampaioManoel CardosoCelso RandowJorge BustamanteMarcos SanchesAdriana LuzAntono. D. NobreCarlos Guimarães Jr.Raphael PousaEtienne TourignyMarcos Costa (UFV)Débora Roberti (UFSM)Andrea Castanho (UECE)Michael Coe (WHRC)

ProjectManagement

Carlos A. Nobre (PI)Paulo Nobre (Coordinator)

Manuel BaptistaBianca AntunesFelipe Odorizi

How to:

• BESM Global Climate Change Scenarios:

– http://besm.ccst.inpe.br

• Contact BESM Development Team:

– besm@inpe.br

• BESM climate change scenarios will be available via ESGF in the (near) future.

Foto

: co

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ia d

e A

nto

nio

No

bre Obrigado!