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2019/SOM2/HRDWG/FOR/003

National Labor Force Survey: Its Problems and Expected Solutions

Submitted by: Chile

APEC Labour Mobility Statistics ForumViña del Mar, Chile

2-3 May 2019

National Labor Force Survey (ENE): Its Problems and Expected Solutions

Guillermo PattilloDirectorNational Institute of StatisticsChile

APEC Labour Mobility Statistics ForumMay, 2, 2019Viña del Mar

Content

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1. The Labor Force Survey (ENE): Background2. Diagnosis and action plan3. Use of administrative records4. ILO recommendations5. Conclusions

1. National Labor Force Survey (ENE):Background

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The ENE is a monthly survey of households conducted by the NationalInstitute of Statistics. It provides a comprehensive body of data on the laborforce, employment, unemployment, persons not in the labor force, hours ofwork, and informal work

The targeted population is all people aged 15 and over

Continuous survey during the year (approximately 12,500 households permonth/ 37,000 quarterly approx.).

Survey on paper until the end of 2019, with suitable informant (member ofthe household of 15 years or more).

Sample design ensures representative and reliable estimates for movingquarters No on a monthly basis.

Methodological and conceptual characteristics of the ENE

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The survey’s objective is to characterize the population aged 15 and over according totheir link with the labor market. Based on responses to a series of questions on workand job search activities, each person 15 years and over in a sample household isclassified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.

It presents indicators at different geographical levels: national, regional, 25 provinces(of a total of 56) and selected cities (33). There are no representative estimates at acounty level (comuna).

The sample design of the survey uses the unemployment rate as the objective variable Current sample design comes from 2008.

That implies a severe misrepresentation of some important dimensions of thepopulation for example, estimate of foreign population resident in the country(immigration).

Objectives and scope of the National Labor Force Survey (LFS)

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Sample design of the ENE

Dimension Description

Sampling desing Probabilistic, stratified, two-stage

Sampling frameUrban area: Framework of blocks 2008 (homogeneous size)Rural area: Framework of sections 2002 (heterogeneous size)

Coverage

Urban and rural area of the country with exclusions of:1. Collective housing2. Difficult access areas (ADA’s)3. Blocks with less than 8 dwellings4. Blocks with structural changes MM20085. Blocks out of range

Stratification160 selected strata, defined according to geographical area and stratum type (CD, RAU, Rural)

Sample size 4.450 PSU; 37.900 dwellings, approximately.

Estimation levels National, 16 regions, 25 provinces, 33 cities

Selection methodPSU: Probability proportional to sizeSSU: Systematic with equal probability 6

7Source: INE, Boletín Estadístico de Empleo, 30 de abril de 2019

2. Diagnosis and action plan

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Diagnosis: Outdated Selection Sampling Frame

Urban area: Framework of blocks 2008Rural area: Framework of sections 2002

Framework exclusions:1. Collective housing2. Difficult access areas (ADA’s)3. Blocks with less than 8 dwellings4. Blocks with structural changes according to MM20085. Blocks out of range of MMM 2008 growth in the

number of dwellings

Urban area: As of November 2018, update with Pre-Census 2016 (urban area is equivalent to about 80% of the sample)Rural area: As of April 2019, update with Pre-Census 2016

Short-term action plan: We are updating the sample selection framework (since November 2018)

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Situation until October 2018 Sampling Frame update in the current survey

Framework exclusions:1. Collective housing2. Difficult access areas (ADA’s)3. Blocks with less than 8 dwellings4. Blocks with structural changes according to MM20085. Blocks out of range of MMM 2008 growth in the

number of dwellings

Diagnosis: Working-Age Population (WAP).

Within the WAP, there are subpopulations that are being under-represented (15-50 years) and over-represented (51 and + years) in the sample.

The above is being corrected by:• Expanding the geographical coverage of the selection framework.

• Adjusting the sampling weights to correct differences with the real population.

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Census 2017

ENE (Sample)

ENE (Official)

Density – Working age population: NationalCensus 2017 & ENE MAM-2017

Den

sity

Age

Short-term action plan: improve the current calibration method of sampling weights

A new calibration method that incorporates different age segments within the working-age population will be introduced, differentiating the data according to the life cycle ofpeople in the labor market. It is evident that age increases the probability of participatingin the labor market and being employed, although this effect is non-linear.

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Participation

Inactivity

Employment

Unemployment

ENE ASO-2018, National total

Un

emp

loym

ent

rate

(%

)

Par

tici

pat

ion

, em

plo

ymen

t an

d in

acti

vity

rat

es (

%)

Diagnosis: sub-estimation of the foreign population resident in the country No household survey is prepared to receive a demographic shock like the one that Chile experienced in the last

three years strong entry of immigrant population.

The effect was exacerbated due to the outdated and under-coverage of the sampling frame in certain areas where there is evidence that the foreign population is concentrated.

The population projections do not distinguish national or foreign population and remain fixed for a prolongedperiod of time the calibration of the sampling weights must incorporate this adjustment variable.

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0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1,000.00

1,200.00

1,400.00

ND

E

EFM

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SON

ND

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ND

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ND

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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Pe

rso

nas

(m

iles)

Evolución población extranjera según ENE y Departamento de Extranjería y Migración (registro administrativo de solicitudes de residencia)

Departamento de Extranjería e Inmigración Estimación ENE

Census 2017

Official estimate of foreign population resident in the country as of December 31, 2018(publication February 14, 2019)

Muestreo

New calibration methodology: improves accuracy by incorporating the stock of

immigrants within the calibration.

When analyzing the total of employed persons and incorporating calibration variables such as: age in morethan two segments, sex and immigration The bias decreases and the accuracy improves

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Medium-term action plan: introduction of a new Housing Sample Framework

starting in 2020

The Housing Sample Framework (HSF) constructed based on the 2017 Census,updated annually, will be a single framework for the entire country. It will havenew Primary Sampling Units (PSU), with updated urban limits, a newsocioeconomic stratification and a new classification of special areas.

The new HSF will have homogeneous primary sampling units (PSU) in terms of thenumber of dwellings, of the order of 200 dwellings on average for the urban areaand 90 for the rural area.

A Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) is a housing conglomerate, used to perform thefirst stage sampling selection in the sample frame of dwellings.

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3. Use of administrative records

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Contrast with data from the ENE Nowadays we have administrative records of the contributors to the pension system (AFPs). Those records are

administered by the Superintendence of Pensions (SP). The records have a lag of two months respect to the results of the ENE. Each month a contrast of comparable mobile quarter data is made in the Employment Bulletin.

Use of administrative records

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Var

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on

(%)

Evolution of annual variation of contributors, estimation (ENE) and statistical series of the pension system (SP), moving quarters 2012-2019

Cotizantes ENE Cotizantes SPContributors ENE Contributors SP

17Source: INE, Boletín Estadístico de Empleo, 30 de abril de 2019

Other administrative records

INE is currently making arrangements in order to get access to other databases that will allowmore options of comparison and cross-check of data and, in that way, strengthen the contrastof information.

Use of administrative records

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4. ILO Recommendations

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ILO Recommendations (preliminar)

Short term (2019)

Update faster the current sampling frame.

Good evaluation of the new calibration method with projections of 2017.

Make the institutional arrangements to have an estimate of the foreign population resident in thecountry on a regular basis and, use this input within the calibration strategy.

Perform a pilot test (robust size) to analyze the effect of the change of paper survey to mobiledevice in the estimates.

Medium term (2020)

Introduce the new sample design based on the new housing framework progressively and includethem in the official calculations the opportunity is highly valued, even more than thecomparability with the series.

Progressively introduce mobile devices, favoring the learning process of the interviewers.

Introduce the suggested questionnaire adjustments in line with the latest ILO recommendations.

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Main Milestones 2019-2020

April May June July August September October November December January February March

June: Acceleration of the replacement of the current sample ENE (2/18)

Adjustment of population projections. CENSUS 2017

region / area

Preparation of field work collection process

April - May 2019: expert panel installation. Accompaniment throughout the process.

Calibration method: Use of projections based on Census 2017 and evaluation of the feasibility of using projections of foreign population

Begin the collection process of the

updated survey in a fraction of the

sample to be defined (for example 1/6)

and, incorporate the results into the official monthly

calculation.

1-5 April: ILO technical

assistance

Current ENE publication

with adjustment of

projections and updated MM (November / December)

Population projections

CENSUS 2017 region / area

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5. Conclusions

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Main conclusions

An update of sample frames for surveys is required more frequently thanpopulation censuses, hopefully on a permanent basis.

Population projections must be permanently revised to incorporate shocks such asmigration.

As for the calibration of sampling weights, they must incorporate the demographicchanges that affect the phenomenon measured by the survey.

The use of administrative records to complement and review the employmentfigures should be used with greater intensity, generating collaboration amonginstitutions to obtain data of better quality.

The incorporation of technology in the collection process and in the disseminationof data, makes it possible to improve the opportunity of the data provided todecisions makers.

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National Labor Force Survey (ENE)