national - literacy.org · national center on adult literacy, university of pennsylvania, 3910...

NATIONAL CENTER ON ADULT LITERACY, UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA, 3910 CHESTNUT STREET, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19104-3111

ADULT BASIC SKILLS IN OECDCOUNTRIES:

POLICY ISSUES AND A RESEARCHAGENDA

David SternAlbert Tuijnman

Centre for Educational Research and Innovation(CERI)

Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD)

OECD/NCAL INTERNATIONAL PAPER IP94-01NOVEMBER 1994

CO-PUBLISHED WITH

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMICCO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

CENTRE FOR EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

This work is derived from a roundtable cosponsored by the Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and Development (OECD) and the National Center on Adult Literacy(NCAL) at the University of Pennsylvania. NCAL is part of the Educational Research andDevelopment Center Program (Grant No. R117Q00003) as administered by the Office ofEducational Research and Improvement, U.S. Department of Education, in cooperationwith the Departments of Health and Human Services and Labor. The findings andopinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect the position or policies of the OECD orthe U.S. Department of Education.

NATIONAL CENTER ON ADULT LITERACY

UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA

3910 CHESTNUT STREET

PHILADELPHIA, PA 19104-3111PHONE (215) 898-2100 FAX (215) 898-9804

The National Center on Adult Literacy (NCAL) was established in 1990 by the U.S. Department ofEducation, with co-funding from the Departments of Labor and Health and Human Services. The missionof NCAL addresses three primary challenges: (a) to enhance the knowledge base about adult literacy; (b) toimprove the quality of research and development in the field; and (c) to ensure a strong, two-wayrelationship between research and practice. Through applied research and development and dissemination ofthe results to researchers, policymakers, and practitioners, NCAL seeks to improve the quality of adultliteracy programs and services on a nationwide basis. NCAL serves as a major operating unit of the LiteracyResearch Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

NCAL publications to date include:

May 1992 Matching Literacy Testing With Social Policy: What are the Alternatives?Richard L. Venezky (PB92-01, 7 pages)

Oct 1992 Life-Span and Life-Space Literacy: Research and Policy in National and International PerspectivesDaniel A. Wagner (OP92-01, 15 pages)

Oct 1992 Expanding Theories of Adult Literacy ParticipationKaren Reed Wikelund, Stephen Reder, & Sylvia Hart-Landsberg (TR92-01, 30 pages)

Oct 1992 Invitations to Inquiry: Rethinking Staff Development in Adult Literacy EducationSusan L. Lytle, Alisa Belzer, & Rebecca Reumann (TR92-02, 44 pages)

Dec 1992 Developing the Professional Workforce for Adult Literacy EducationSusan L. Lytle, Alisa Belzer, & Rebecca Reumann (PB92-02, 11 pages)

Jan 1993 The Analysis of Adult Literacy: Problems in Factor Analysis Bib-Spiralled Item AdministrationDavid Kaplan (OP93-01, 18 pages)

Mar 1993 The Impact of Workplace Literacy Programs: A New Model for Evaluation of Workplace Literacy ProgramsLarry Mikulecky & Paul Lloyd (TR93-02, 180 pages)

Mar 1993 Literacy and Machines: An Overview of the Use of Technology in Adult Literacy ProgramsTerilyn C. Turner (TR93-03, 86 pages)

Jun 1993 Myths and Misconceptions in Adult Literacy: A Research and Development PerspectiveDaniel A. Wagner (PB93-01, 10 pages)

Jun 1993 Literacy and Development: Rationales, Assessment, and InnovationDaniel A. Wagner (IP93-01, 50 pages)

Jun 1993 Early Childhood, Family, and Health Issues in Literacy: International PerspectivesLaurel D. Puchner (IP93-02, 45 pages)

Sep 1993 What Makes Worker Learn? The Role of Incentives in Workplace Education and TrainingDonald Hirsch & Daniel A. Wagner (Eds.) (IP93-03, 243 pages)

Sep 1993 Prison Literacy: Implications for Program and Assessment PolicyAnabel Newman, Warren Lewis, & Carolyn Beverstock (TR93-01, 219 pages)

Sep 1993 Management Information Systems in Adult Education: Perspectives from the States and from LocalProgramsMark A. Kutner, Lenore Webb, Rebecca Herman, & Pelavin Associates, Inc. (TR93-04, 150 pages)

Sep 1993 What Can Employers Assume about the Literacy Skills of GED Graduates?David Kaplan & Richard L. Venezky (TR93-05, 45 pages)

Sep 1993 Should Reading-Disabled Adults Be Distinguished From Other Adults Seeking Literacy Instruction? AReview of Theory and ResearchAnne E. Fowler & Hollis S. Scarborough (TR93-07, 101 pages)

Sep 1993 When Less Is More: A Comparative Analysis for Placing Students in Adult Literacy ClassesRichard L. Venezky, Page S. Bristow, & John P. Sabatini (TR93-08, 46 pages)

Sep 1993 Metacognitive Aspects of Adult LiteracyScott G. Paris & Andrea Parecki (TR93-09, 44 pages)

Nov 1993 Teamwork and Literacy: Learning from a Skills-Poor PositionSylvia Hart-Landsberg & Steve Reder (TR93-06, 63 pages)

NCAL publications to date (continued)

Nov 1993 Motivations for Learning: Voices of Women Welfare Reform ParticipantKaren Wikelund (TR93-10, 54 pages)

Nov 1993 Initiating Practitioner Inquiry: Adult Literacy Teachers, Tutors, and Administrators Research TheirPracticeSusan L. Lytle, Alisa Belzer, & Rebecca Reumann (TR93-11, 69 pages)

Nov 1993 Coalition Building for Adult Literacy: Historical and Organizational PerspectivesAnabel P. Newman & Bernadette Lehman (TR93-13, 68 pages)

Nov 1993 Effective Service Delivery in Adult Literacy Programs: A Policy Review and RecommendationsJudith Ann Koloski (TR93-14, 46 pages)

Dec 1993 Issues and Challenges in Adult NumeracyIddo Gal (TR93-15, 62 pages)

Dec 1993 Adult Literacy Training and the Integration of Human ServicesElizabeth R. Reisner (TR93-16, 30 pages)

Apr 1994 Measuring Gain in Adult Literacy ProgramsRichard L. Venezky, Page S. Bristow, & John P. Sabatini (TR93-12, 24 pages)

Apr 1994 Understanding Family Literacy: Conceptual Issues Facing the FieldVivian L. Gadsden (TR94-02, 32 pages)

Apr 1994 Children, Parents, and Families: An Annotated Bibliography on Literacy Development In and Out ofProgram SettingsVivian L. Gadsden, Ludo C. P. Scheffer, & Joel Hardman (TR94-04, 84 pages)

Jun 1994 Literacy Transfer: A Review of the LiteratureLarry Mikulecky, Peggy Albers, & Michele Peers (TR94-05, 21 pages)

Jun 1994 Instruction and Assessment for Limited-English-Proficient Adult LearnersRonald W. Solórzano (TR94-06, 33 pages)

Jun 1994 Early Warning Signs of Functional Illiteracy: Predictors in Childhood and AdolescenceNazli Baydar, Jeanne Brooks-Gunn, & Frank F. Furstenberg (OP94-01, 13 pages)

Jul 1994 Use It or Lose It? The Problem of Adult Literacy Skill RetentionDaniel A. Wagner (TR94-07, 27 pages)

Jul 1994 Technology: New Tools for Adult Literacy, Videoconference Participant MaterialsJoyce Harvey-Morgan, Chris Hopey, & Karl Rethemeyer (Eds.) (PR94-01, 58 pages)

Sep 1994 Supply and Demand for Literacy Instruction in the United StatesRichard L. Venezky & Daniel A. Wagner (TR94-10, 13 pages)

Sep 1994 The Professionalization of the Teacher in Adult Literacy EducationTimothy Shanahan, Maureen Meehan, & Stephen Mogge (TR94-11, 20 pages)

Sep 1994 The Role of Literacy in the Wealth of Individuals and NationsSue E. Berryman (TR94-13, 15 pages)

Oct 1994 Abilities and Competencies in Adulthood: Life-Span Perspectives on Workplace SkillsJacqui Smith & Michael Marsiske (TR94-12, 36 pages)

Nov 1994 Adult Basic Skills in OECD Countries: Policy Issues and a Research AgendaDavid Stern & Albert Tuijnman (IP94-01, 12 pages)

Nov 1994 Literacy and Adults With Developmental DisabilitiesKaren A. Erickson, David A. Koppenhaver, & David E. Yoder (TR94-15, 31 pages)

Information on ordering of NCAL publications may be addressed to Dissemination at NCAL.Revised November 14, 1994

NCAL MANAGEMENTDaniel A. Wagner, DirectorRichard L. Venezky, Co-Director for Research and DevelopmentJoyce Harvey-Morgan, Associate DirectorVivian L. Gadsden, Associate DirectorSandra K. Stewart, Manager of DisseminationMary O. Russell, Administrative CoordinatorJanet C. Smith, EditorR. Karl Rethemeyer, Manager, Literacy Technology Laboratory

NCAL SENIOR PROJECT DIRECTORSMaría Carlo, University of PennsylvaniaVivian L. Gadsden, University of PennsylvaniaIddo Gal, University of PennsylvaniaJoyce Harvey-Morgan, University of PennsylvaniaSusan L. Lytle, University of PennsylvaniaLarry Mikulecky, Indiana UniversityScott G. Paris, University of MichiganLaurel D. Puchner, University of PennsylvaniaStephen Reder, Northwest Regional Educational LaboratoryR. Karl Rethemeyer, University of PennsylvaniaRegie Stites, University of PennsylvaniaRichard L. Venezky, University of DelawareDaniel A. Wagner, University of Pennsylvania

NCAL NATIONAL ADVISORY PANELGloria Twine Chisum, Chair, NCAL National Advisory PanelRichard C. Anderson, Director, Center for the Study of Reading, University of IllinoisJoan D. Baraloto, Director, Education and Family Initiatives, USA TodayJack Bowsher, Director of Education (ret.), IBM, Inc.Jeanne Chall, Professor, Graduate School of Education, Harvard UniversityLillian Escobar-Haskins, Executive Director, Governor’s Advisory Commission on Latino Affairs,PennsylvaniaThe Honorable William F. Goodling, U.S. Representative, PennsylvaniaJerry Kilbert, Director of Adult Education, CaliforniaLuis Laosa, Principal Research Scientist, Research Department, Educational Testing ServiceNoreen Lopez, Manager, Adult Education Product Development, Contemporary Books, Inc.Geraldine Novelo, Deputy Director (ret.), Instituto Nacional para la Educación de los Adultos, MexicoVan D. Ooms, Senior Vice President and Director of Research, Committee for Economic DevelopmentBernard P. Reca, Vice President, Bell AtlanticAnthony Sarmiento, Assistant Director, Human Resources Development Institute, AFL-CIORobert Schwartz, Program Director, Education, Pew Charitable TrustsRamsay Selden, Director, State Education Assessment Center, Council of Chief State School OfficersSenator Paul Simon, U.S. Senator, IllinoisDorothy Strickland, Professor, Graduate School of Education, Rutgers UniversityFrancis X. Sutton, Vice President (ret.), Ford FoundationCalvin Tyler, Senior Vice President for Human Resources, UPS, Inc.Peter Waite, Executive Director, Laubach Literacy Action

NCAL EDITORIAL REVIEW COMMITTEEHal Beder, Rutgers UniversityMaría Carlo, University of PennsylvaniaSuzanne Cockley, Virginia Adult Education Research NetworkAydin Durgunoglu, University of Illinois, UrbanaMarcia Farr, University of Illinois at ChicagoBeth Foley, Utah State UniversityMaggie Gaines, Baltimore City Literacy Corp.Sheryl Gowen, Georgia State UniversityKeiko Koda, Ohio UniversitySusan L. Lytle, University of PennsylvaniaPeter B. Mosenthal, Syracuse UniversityThomas Reeves, University of GeorgiaTimothy Shanahan, University of Illinois at ChicagoKeith Stanovich, University of TorontoSondra Stein, National Institute for LiteracyTerrence G. Wiley, California State University Long Beach

N A T I O N A L C E N T E R O N A D U L T L I T E R A C Y i

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents iAbstract iii

Literacy as a Key Variable in Economic Analysis 1Potential Gains From Surveys 3What Kinds of Samples Would Yield These Benefits? 9Accomplishing the Desired Study Design 10Conclusion 12

References 13

ii I N T E R N A T I O N A L P A P E R I P 9 4 – 0 1

N A T I O N A L C E N T E R O N A D U L T L I T E R A C Y iii

ADULT BASIC SKILLSIN OECD COUNTRIES:POLICY ISSUES AND A RESEARCH AGENDA

David SternAlbert Tuijnman

Centre for Educational Research and Innovation(CERI)

Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD)

Abstract

This report considers a sequence of three questions: How might nationaland international surveys contribute to a better understanding of the relationshipbetween schooling and adult basic skills, and second, between basic skills anddependent variables such as labor force participation, unemployment, andworker productivity? Further, what kinds of samples and instruments should becreated to achieve this potential gain in understanding? Finally, what must bedone in order to accomplish the desired study design?

iv I N T E R N A T I O N A L P A P E R I P 9 4 – 0 1

N A T I O N A L C E N T E R O N A D U L T L I T E R A C Y 1

LITERACY AS A KEY VARIABLEIN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

The publication, Adult Illiteracy and Economic Performance (OECD, 1992),opens with the following statement:

This . . . first OECD study on adult illiteracy . . . appears at atime when advanced industrialized countries are starting toworry seriously about illiteracy, having previously considered itlargely a problem for developing nations. The underlying reasonfor this new concern is suggested precisely by CERI’s work onhuman resources and technological change: it is not that schoolsare turning out demonstrably less literate graduates than in thepast, but that the ways in which adults need to apply literacyskills are becoming far more demanding. But the phenomenonof illiteracy in industrialized countries is as yet relatively littlestudied or understood . . . . (p. 7)

This paragraph places literacy squarely in an economic context,characterized by concern over skill demand and supply in industrializedcountries. A skills mismatch is seen as harmful, because it diminishes the valueadded by technology and reduces the productivity of workers and firms. This,in turn, strains the competitiveness of firms, labor markets, and the nation as awhole. By noting that the phenomenon of illiteracy in this context is littlestudied, however, the reader of the 1992 study is warned that the relationshipbetween literacy and competitiveness needs further study and that the OECDreport offers no truths but rather hypotheses for investigation.

The investigation is taken further in the present report, which explores anumber of hypotheses concerning the relationships between schoolingattainments, literacy skills, productivity, and competitiveness (see alsoBerryman, 1994). The research literature is reviewed, not as an end in itself,but as a necessary step in summarizing the questions posed by policymakers,identifying the main knowledge gaps, and proposing an agenda for datacollection and analysis.

Despite the scarcity of evidence, the claim that worker skills are a majoringredient in economic competitiveness has found a large and receptive audienceamong policymakers and researchers and has helped propel the issue of literacyto the fore of the policy debate in OECD countries. The interest in literacy thusderives from an argument about the role of skills in influencing productivity.This argument is at the heart of a debate over whether and why Westerneconomies have performed below expectations since the late 1970s. Someeconomists have postulated that misallocated and insufficient skills explain, atleast partly, why the cumulative input of capital, labor, and technology hasproduced less than the expected economic growth in Western economies. Thisargument focuses attention on the role of intangible variables such as theknowledge, skills, and competencies of workers, information, and social andcultural capital in influencing the marginal productivity of other factors ofproduction. Workplace literacy has moved to center stage because it is believedto confer economies of scale to capital and labor inputs. Economic growth, it is

2 I N T E R N A T I O N A L P A P E R I P 9 4 – 0 1

argued, depends not only on the amounts of tangible input factors butespecially on their optimal allocation, given the strongly diminishing returnson investment in intangibles. Because intangible capital is associated withpeople and organizations, productivity growth cannot be separated fromworker skills and the quality of interpersonal relationships that occur asmicrophenomena in the workplace.

In conclusion, the widespread concern with literacy derives from the keyrole of human competence in some micro-based models of macroeconomicgrowth (Eliasson, 1993). The OECD countries seem to have little choice butto increasingly seek their global competitive advantage in the accumulation ofskills and competence (Bengtsson, 1991). However, the conversion offinancial capital into human capital—and hence the development of aknowledge-intensive economy—is a slow, gradual, and risky process. Risksarise because the payoff of investments in literacy is not self-evident andimmediate. In order to reduce risks and counter the factors that otherwisemight lead to underinvestment in human capital, a new concept of humancapital accounting is needed.

A new human capital accounting system would aim at measuring andrecording levels of competency—for example, adult basic skills. Inparticular, it would focus on the acquisition of knowledge and competencyrelevant for use in the workplace. The potential benefits of an effectivehuman capital accounting system are legion (Miller, 1994):

• facilitating incremental and long-term investment in humancapital by validating existing assets, by providing greaterassurance of later market validation, and by facilitating theremoval of rigidities stemming from arbitrary marketpower entrenched by tradition or outdated regulations;

• promoting labor mobility;

• opening new opportunities for firm-based financialaccounting and reporting of human capital;

• clarifying the ownership of competency;

• increasing the transparency of labor contracts; and

• increasing flexibility and encouraging human capitalinvestment by validating labor contracts.

Although not falling strictly under the banner of human capitalaccounting, plans to introduce a minimum start qualification currently beingimplemented in Germany, the Netherlands, and other OECD countries can beseen as examples of a policy interest in the validation or certification ofknowledge and skill. Similar initiatives can be noted elsewhere, such as theCanadian initiatives in official prior learning assessment and standardssetting, the proposed certificate of initial mastery in the United States, theintroduction of national vocational qualifications in the United Kingdom, theestablishment a vocational certificate training system in Australia, and thecreation in 1987 of assessment centers in France. These strategies all seek tooptimize labor allocation and the conversion of financial into intangiblecapital by improving the signaling and information functions of educationand labor markets.


Ideally, in order to establish a new concept of human capital accounting,information is needed not only on the literacy profiles of individual workers,occupations, firms, and labor markets but also on the costs of and returns frominvestment in skill acquisition. This focuses attention on the relationshipsbetween schooling and literacy skills and between literacy skills andproductivity. Indeed, the entire analysis stands or falls on the hypothesis thatinvestment in skills makes workers and firms more productive.

POTENTIAL GAINS FROM SURVEYS

SCHOOLING AND LITERACY SKILLS

In the absence of direct observations on the skills and competence of peoplein the labor force, sociologists and economists often consider using proxyvariables such as the number of years of schooling completed or the highestcredential attained. This may be admissible insofar as knowledge and skillscorrelate highly with measures of completed schooling. However, a seriousthreat to validity can arise if schooling and skills do not correspond. Such asituation can occur for a variety of reasons. For example, people who enter thelabor market with similar educational qualifications have not necessarilyacquired the same level of proficiency in literacy skills or competency ininterpersonal relations. Furthermore, discrepancies can arise because people donot stop learning upon leaving school. Because the opportunity to learn variesdepending on a host of personal, situational, and economic variables, therelationship between initial schooling and the literacy skills of workers is notnecessarily linear. Whether educational attainment can nevertheless be employedas a proxy for acquired skills depends on what questions are addressed andwhat type of data analysis is undertaken.

Educational attainment is also conventionally employed as a variablepredicting the individual and social outcomes of schooling. The possible effectsof education can be measured in different ways and at different levels.Microscopic studies tend to focus on variables that carry meaning forindividuals, for example, the incidence of unemployment, occupationalopportunity, sex differences in the labor market, worker productivity, orearnings from work. By contrast, macroscopic studies are concerned with theeffects of education on the supply of skilled workers, the functioning of labormarkets, and aggregate economic growth. In both cases, empirical work isguided not only by the hypothesized relationship between the dependentvariables and educational attainment per se, but also by an assumptionconcerning the relationship between the dependent variables and the knowledge,skills, and competence that are believed to be associated with schoolingattainment.

In the OECD countries, most people have received a minimum of formalschooling. Until recently, schooling was generally assumed to be congruentwith proficiency in basic literacy skills. Questions about skill deficits weretherefore almost exclusively directed to certain marginalized groups. Thisposition changed, albeit gradually, with the publication of surveys of adult basicskills conducted in Canada and the United States during the mid- and late-


1980s. Literacy assessments undertaken in a handful of other countries havesince confirmed that measures of completed schooling are, at best, poorsubstitutes for direct assessments of worker skills.

Whereas data sets have been assembled in a number of OECD countries,there still is a dearth of empirical information at the international level. Theabsence of comparable information limits the possibility of establishingbenchmarks for the thresholds of literacy proficiency. It also hampers thetesting of hypotheses concerning the value of schooling and, particularly, therelationship between education, literacy skills, and worker productivity.

LITERACY SKILLS AND WORKER PRODUCTIVITY

A positive correlation between individuals’ schooling attainment andearnings has been demonstrated by hundreds of statistical studies(Psacharopoulos, 1985). The additional earnings associated with highereducation in particular grew during the 1980s in most OECD countries(OECD, 1993, p. 171), and this fact has been the major piece of evidencesupporting the widespread current claim that skill requirements in theworkplace are increasing.

However, these findings leave some fundamental questions unanswered.As pointed out above, schooling attainment per se is not a measure ofknowledge or skill. Ever since Arrow (1973) and Spence (1973)demonstrated that labor markets might well reward higher educationalattainment even if schools contributed nothing to individual productivity, theextent to which schools operate as a screening mechanism has remained anopen question. If ability is assumed to be a one-dimensional construct, thenschools in theory might be certifying only individuals’ ability; employers arewilling to pay more to persons so certified, even if these persons learnednothing in school that increased their productivity. In contrast, if ability ismultidimensional—for example, linguistic, musical, logical-mathematical,spatial, and bodily-kinesthetic (Gardner, 1985)—and if certain jobs requiremore of some abilities than of others, then schools may be helpingindividuals to sort themselves into different kinds of jobs (Willis & Rosen,1979), without necessarily adding to their productive knowledge or skill.How much of the monetary return due to schooling represents payment forcompetencies acquired in school remains an open question.

Continuing education and training complicate the matter even further. Thespecification of continuing education and firm-based training as mediatingvariables in a model sequencing the effect of schooling on occupation andearnings causes the size of the parameters associated with the influences ofschooling to decrease substantially. The specification of measures ofcontinuing education and training, moreover, changes the shape of the curvesassociated with the schooling effect; the capacity of schooling to predictoccupational status and earnings from work decreases at an earlier age thanwould be the case if such variables were ignored (Tuijnman, 1989). Thus,the effect of schooling on earnings is partly spurious, since omitted variablessuch as postinitial learning also influence this relationship. This evidenceprovides strong support for theories of lifelong learning. In addition, itsuggests that it is necessary to go behind simple measures of educational


attainment and to assess more directly the knowledge, skills, and competenciesthat may be associated with productivity and earnings growth.

A further reason why the correlation between earnings and schooling fails totell us much about the relationship between skills and productivity is thatearnings and productivity are by no means synonymous. Lazear (1981), forexample, demonstrated that competitive labor markets might award higher payto individuals with more seniority, even if their productivity remainedabsolutely constant over time. OECD (1973) had already noted that the prospectof higher pay later in life would keep young noses to the grindstone and wouldkeep more senior workers from shirking because they would not want to riskdismissal while in their highly paid years. Individuals are therefore moreproductive than they would be if they were paid exactly the value of what theyproduced as they went along, and the resulting gain in lifetime productivitywould benefit both employers and employees. Lazear’s model does seem to fitcertain situations where employment relationships are expected to last a longtime, as in large Japanese manufacturing companies or large U.S. law firms. Ingeneral, then, we cannot assume that individual earnings are highly correlatedwith productivity.

The purpose of this discussion is not to summarize the literature oneducation as a screening device or the relationship between pay andproductivity, but rather to indicate that these overarching questions preclude asimple interpretation of the association between schooling and earnings. Inorder to understand whether, how, and to what extent workers’ competenceaffects their productivity, studies of schooling attainment and earnings willnever suffice. It is necessary to measure productivity and competence directly.This line of reasoning offers strong arguments for looking very carefully at thedimensions of literacy skills and competencies, how they are acquired, and howthey bear on production.

Aggregate growth/accounting studies (e.g., Denison, 1962; Jorgenson,1984) tell us even less than statistical studies at the individual level about howcompetence affects productivity. Although these studies are interpreted asmeasuring the contribution of education to economic growth at the nationallevel, they are based on the assumption that higher earnings of more highlyeducated people are a measure of their higher productivity. As we have seen,that assumption is questionable.

Industry studies, though still highly aggregated, have yielded more directevidence that higher average levels of education are correlated with higherproductivity (Bishop, 1990; Blakemore & Hoffman, 1989; Daly, 1986;Griliches & Mason, 1972). Bartel and Lichtenberg (1987) found more demandfor educated workers in industries using newer technology and spending moreon research and development, indicating that the contribution of more highlyeducated workers may have to do with their comparative advantage inimplementing new technology. Although suggestive, these results still do nottell us precisely what it is that more highly educated workers know and can dobetter than others. There is also the possibility of spurious relationships due toaggregation: The more productive and technologically progressive firms withinan industry may not actually be the ones with the most highly educatedpersonnel.


The best level at which to study the relationship between workers’competence and productivity is the firm, establishment, or work group.These are the actual units of production, where human competence iscombined with other factors to produce goods or services (Bishop, 1987).Sorge, Warner, and associates devised a method for comparative case studiesof firms, focusing on machine tool making and other manufacturing(Hartmann, Nicholas, Sorge, & Warner, 1983; Maurice, Sorge, & Warner,1980). They found both higher productivity and higher levels of skillsamong production workers in Germany compared to France and the UnitedKingdom.

The comparative case study method was further refined by researchers atthe National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) in London.In a series of studies in different manufacturing industries, they matchedfirms in different countries by specific product and scale of operation. Theythen compared the physical productivity of similar work groups, taking intoaccount the kind of machinery being used, its age, country of origin, andmethod of use. They also noted any differences in raw materials, schedulingof work, and the organization of production. Finally, they documented thelevels of vocational qualification of production workers, foremen, andmanagers.

The first study in the NIESR series, by Daly, Hitchens, and Wagner(1985), compared 16 pairs of British and German plants that producedscrews and nuts, small metal springs, drill bits, hydraulic valves, and motorparts. In 6 pairs of firms where the amount of output per person could becompared at the shop floor level, the average productivity of direct labor was63% higher on the German side. In the larger sample, including these 6pairs, the age of equipment in the two countries was about the same, but theGerman firms were using more numerically controlled (NC) machines, andmore of the machines used in Germany had been manufactured there, whilethe British firms mainly used imported machines. There was also lessautomated feeding of materials into the machines in Britain. Managers inBritain reported more problems with maintenance and machine breakdowns,although no actual statistics on downtime were reported. Differences inemployee skill levels were most apparent between British and Germanforemen: The latter were more likely to possess formal qualifications. Theauthors conclude, “Although there was a relative lack of NC machinery in theBritish plans in our sample, in our judgment the greater part of theproductivity gap came from other sources: A lack of feeding devices,frequent machine breakdowns, poor maintenance procedures, inadequatecontrol of the quality of raw materials, and similar deficiencies in basicproduction techniques” (Daly et al., 1985, p. 59). “The fault for poormaintenance, poor production control, and poor diagnosis of faults, has itsorigins in technical skills at the level of foremen and operators” (Daly et al.,1985, p. 61).

While these conclusions are entirely plausible, it should be noted that thepractices described by the researchers might also support a differentinterpretation, namely, that poor deployment and use of skills, rather thanlack of skills, account for at least some of the productivity differences. Theydescribe the British firms as generally sloppier about meeting deadlines,enforcing quality standards for suppliers of materials, keeping machinesclean, and doing preventive maintenance. Workers in the British firms may


simply lack incentive to keep machines running properly, and managers mayhave fallen into the habit of blaming a generally disorganized workplace onworkers’ alleged ineptitude. It is conceivable that the same workers, under adifferent management regime, would be capable of the same productivity as inGermany.

The second NIESR study in this series (Steedman & Wagner, 1987)contrasted nine British and eight German manufacturers of wooden kitchencabinets. At the stage of preparing cabinet panels, output per employee was 2.3times higher in the German plants, due mainly to the more extensive use ofcomputer numerically controlled (CNC) machines in Germany for feeding andoff-loading materials to and from saws and drill presses. Among other reasonsfor this difference was the greater fear of machine breakdowns in Britain, and inthis study the researchers provide evidence to corroborate this fear: “In thecourse of our visits to nine British furniture plants, five severe problems ofmajor machine malfunction on the main production line were noted; in three, themain production line was undergoing repair in the course of our visit. Not asingle instance of breakdown in a main production line was observed inGermany” (Steedman & Wagner, 1987, p. 126). Again, the organization ofwork in Germany was generally tighter.

Steedman and Wagner (1989) next compared 10 pairs of British andGerman plants making women’s outerwear such as coats, jackets, suits,blouses, skirts, and dresses. As in the previous study, the German firms wereproducing more specialized products in smaller batches. Restricting thecomparison to half the sample that were producing similar batch sizes, theGerman firms were found to be twice as productive. The British were usingsomewhat older machines and, again, were experiencing more downtime: “InBritain, one or more of the more complex and major pieces of equipment . . .were not functioning correctly, or at all, in half of all plants visited . . . . Noneof the German plants visited had breakdowns of this sort, and all majormachines were fully functioning” (Steedman & Wagner, 1989, p. 46). Theresearchers attribute this in large part to the fact that “in the German clothingfirms we visited all the mechanics who were servicing sewing and alliedmachinery had passed engineering apprenticeship examinations, whereas in theBritish firms visited none had done so” (Steedman & Wagner, 1989, p. 51). Inaddition, broader initial training of machine operators enabled them to changemore quickly from one product to another, an important skill in the fashionindustry, where changes in style are frequent.

The fourth and final study in the NIESR series of British-Germancomparisons left the manufacturing sector to look at hotels. Specifically, Prais,Jarvis, and Wagner (1989) examined 14 British and 24 German medium-quality bed-and-breakfast hotels. Productivity, measured by guest-nights peremployee, was twice as high in the German sample. This was again attributedto better training, with more of the German employees holding formalqualifications for their jobs. At reception desks, the broader German trainingenabled workers to handle a wider range of tasks, thus economizing on thenumber of people necessary. Better trained housekeepers were also moreefficient in organizing the work of chambermaids, who were untrained in bothcountries.

The NIESR group has subsequently gone on to compare biscuit making inBritain and the Netherlands, with qualitatively similar results (Mason, Prais, &


van Ark, 1990). Despite their limitations and the possibility of alternativeinterpretations, these are among the most detailed and thorough studies ofskill levels and productivity at the level of the firm, and they showconsistently positive connections.

However, even the NIESR studies have not directly measured whatworkers know and are able to do. Instead, the researchers have documentedthe different schooling qualifications held by workers in the matched firms,and they have described the content of training certified by thosequalifications. But they have not pinned down the precise differences inknowledge and skills that caused the observed productivity differences. It ispossible that much, or even all, of the additional training of German workersis irrelevant to the functioning of the work group or firm. Conceivably, thewhole difference in productivity could be attributable to better managementand stronger motivation, rather than actual knowledge and skills. While thisexplanation seems unlikely, the absence of direct measures of workers’competence leaves the possibility open. It also makes it impossible to tellexactly what, if anything, about the German workers’ training makes themmore productive.

POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF SKILLS ASSESSMENT

Thus, what might be gained from a general survey of workers’knowledge and skills is, first of all, the possibility of directly testing howthese are related to productivity. As we have tried to suggest, this kind ofinformation would begin to fill a great void in the research to date. Suchinformation would also begin to create a more solid basis for policy oneducation and training. Much current policy discussion rests on assumptionsabout the contribution of education and training to the economy—assumptions that are untestable because the data are lacking.

One specific policy issue has to do with minimum qualifications. Exactlywhat should a person know and be able to do before being awarded acertificate of initial mastery or other starter qualification? There is no firmbasis for answering this question unless and until some evidence has beencollected about the relationship between competence and productivity. In theabsence of such evidence, the standard might be set too low, leading toreduced productivity in the workplace, or too high, causing some potentiallyproductive individuals to be unnecessarily disqualified.

More generally, the possibility of directly measuring whether and howworkers’ competence affects productivity could put the whole education andtraining enterprise on more solid footing. To the extent that specific coursesand course requirements are justified because they are thought to preparestudents for work, direct evidence about how knowledge and skills affectproductivity would allow teachers and curriculum developers to validate whatthey ask students to learn.


WHAT KIND OF SAMPLES WOULDYIELD THESE BENEFITS?

Direct measurement of workers’ competence can shed new light on therelationship between competence and productivity. A number of countries arenow beginning to conduct surveys of workers’ competence. In order to test therelationship between competence and productivity, the samples for thesesurveys should be designed to measure both competence and productivity forthe same respondents. This implies collecting data in work settings, whereproductivity can be measured. The primary sampling units should therefore befirms or establishments. Individual workers should then be sampled withinenterprises.

Even with such a sample, it is not simple to measure the relationshipbetween workers’ competence and the productivity of the enterprise or workgroup. Productivity can be defined as value added per worker, but both thenumerator and denominator of this ratio present tricky issues of definition andmeasurement. For example, if a work group or enterprise produces goods orservices that are not sold but are used by another part of the same firm, it can bedifficult to determine the value. In determining the number of workers forcomputing productivity, it is necessary to decide how to count managers,temporary employees, and ancillary employees. These difficulties are notinsurmountable, and the agency conducting the skills survey would notnecessarily have to deal with the productivity measures at all: These could becollected in a separate survey effort.

It is important to collect the data on workers’ knowledge and skills in such away that it is at least possible to gather the related productivity evidence for thesame workers or a subsample of them. The main alternative to enterprises asprimary sampling units would be households, from which individualrespondents would be drawn. But the only proxy for productivity available forindividuals in a household survey is earnings, and we have already explainedwhy earnings are an unsatisfactory measure of productivity.

Another desirable feature of the sampling design would be to sampleclusters of entire work groups within enterprises. In most work settings, thedefinition of productivity is a group concept. The contribution of individualsdepends not only on their own knowledge and skills, but also on those of theircoworkers. To some extent even knowledge and skills themselves are embodiedin groups rather than individuals (Lave & Wenger, 1991). Therefore, it shouldbe possible to obtain a more accurate explanation of the relationship betweenworkers’ competence and productivity if both are measured for complete workgroups, so that the use and development of workplace literacy can beunderstood in relation to social capital (Coleman, 1990) and culture (Hull,1993). The gain in understanding should be worth the increased complexity ofcomputing standard errors of estimates in cluster samples.

An agency charged with conducting a survey of workers’ knowledge andskills might object that we are adding a whole research agenda to a measurementtask that is already sufficiently difficult in itself. However, it is our judgmentthat the sampling design we have sketched here is necessary to answer the


theoretical and practical questions that motivate this kind of survey in the firstplace. Even if not all of this can be achieved right away, it is useful to beclear about the basic questions in order to see the direction the effort shouldtake.

ACCOMPLISHING THE DESIREDSTUDY DESIGN

While the goal should be to develop a means of directly testing howknowledge and skills are related to productivity, a number of hurdles have tobe taken before this question can ultimately be addressed in a satisfactorilydesigned study. The challenges are both conceptual and methodological.

Conceptually, the main task is to establish an acceptable definition of skilland to develop a skill taxonomy. As argued by Wagner (in press), akin tomodern theories of intelligence, a skill taxonomy would take account ofmultiple dimensions, and its structure would acknowledge hierarchy. Thisresearch agenda will take many years to carry out, for much the same reasonsas the work on human intelligence is incomplete despite more than a centuryof intensive research.

No less daunting is the task of measuring the independent and dependentvariables. Productivity, the dependent variable, can be assessed in terms ofthe output of an individual worker, the output of a specific workplace or abranch of industry, or the aggregate output of an economy. Insofar as outputcan be defined in quantitative units and measured under experimental orquasi-experimental conditions, the measurement of productivity seems morestraightforward than the measurement and scaling of literacy skills. Studiesshow that a large and collaborative research program is needed for thedevelopment of an adequate methodology for skill assessment (Jones, inpress; Murray, in press; Smith & Marsiske, 1994; Van der Kamp, in press).Other challenges include the construction and validation of test measures, thescaling of skill dimensions, and the setting of proficiency benchmarks(Kirsch & Jungeblut, in press; Kolstad, in press; Mohadjer, Berlin, Rieger,& Waksberg, in press; Mosenthal, in press; Venezky, in press).

Once useful definitions and reasonably accurate test measures have beendeveloped, the large problem of data collection arises (Kirsch & Jungeblut,in press; Mohadjer et al., in press). Accomplishing the desired design willnecessitate the creation of a multilevel sample of workers clustered withinwork units, firms or work organizations, labor market sectors and, finally,countries. While technically feasible, no large study relying on so complex adesign has been undertaken to date.

A further element should be mentioned. Governments are interested inworkplaces that sustain productivity and competitiveness. The implication isthat time-series data are required. Unstable relationships might be detectedthat result from business decisions that were taken to yield tactical advantagebut might have negative repercussions for long-term prospects. Similarly,one might see low productivity in the short term that belies a high, long-term


yield as the investment pays off. Thus, in looking for evidence about therelationship between skills and productivity, the time dimension and thereference period for measurement cannot be ignored.

Work is being undertaken on all research fronts, but the progress so far hasbeen uneven. An interesting development is that statistical agencies in a numberof OECD countries have created surveys that select workers within firms for thepurpose of collecting information on human capital investment and nonwageremuneration. These data are being used to calculate price indices for labor—indices that are free from occupational or industrial shifts. Although theinformation sources used for these surveys differ from those tapped by a skillsstudy, they can provide a convenient operational infrastructure within which towork. This argues for adopting a gradual approach in working toward the goalof creating the measurement technology that is needed if the relationshipbetween skills and productivity is ever to be estimated using direct observation.

Progress in the area of skill assessment has been especially slow. There are,however, positive signs here as well. In 1992, an important group of OECDcountries—including Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, andthe United States—decided to pool resources and expertise to set up the firstInternational Assessment of Literacy Skills (IALS) ever undertaken. Ifsuccessful, this study will open up exciting possibilities for policy analysis andstatistical modeling, because it will produce the first international database withcomparable information on variables such as initial schooling, postinitialtraining, informal learning at the workplace, and information on jobs and thework environment. Most important, it will include the results from nationwideassessments of literacy skills undertaken in nine countries among samples of thepopulation 18 to 64 years of age. A further benefit of the IALS is that itmobilizes the required mix of talents by bringing together researchers,policymakers, assessment and sampling experts, and statistical agencies. Thesebenefits notwithstanding, in some respects the IALS arguably falls short of thekind of design advocated in the present report. The two main handicaps are,first, the absence of a multilevel sampling design that targets work units withinfirms and, second, the absence of productivity measures.

However, the aim of the study is not to test the hypothesis of a positive ornegative relationship between skills and productivity. This first internationalstudy seeks to accomplish four main tasks, all of them difficult but necessaryfor achieving progress in this field of study. The first task is to establish aninternational procedure for measuring and assessing literacy skills in acomparative context. The second aim is to develop an international scale, so thatthe skill levels observed in one country can be related to benchmarks estimatedusing data obtained from other countries. The third aim is to investigate therelationship between literacy proficiency, schooling, postinitial training, andlearning in the workplace. Finally, once the assessment results are available andhave been calibrated on an international scale, the study will seek to profile theliteracy proficiency of designated groups in nested structures, for example, thelong-term unemployed or the workers in certain occupations and sectors of thelabor market.

The first IALS, now under way, is not designed to take the researchforward on all fronts. However, by improving our knowledge andunderstanding of literacy and by developing an international methodology for itsmeasurement and assessment, the study brings us a step closer to the ultimate


goal, the testing of the hypotheses asserting that schooling, furthereducation, and training determine worker skills and that skills in largemeasure codetermine, first, the productivity of workers and workorganizations and, second, the competitiveness of nations.

CONCLUSION

Current changes signaling a transition from a labor- to a knowledge-intensive system of wealth creation make it all the more important to increasethe efficient allocation of both the quantity and the flow of human-embodiedknowledge and literacy skills.

Surveys involving the assessment of literacy skills, while not sufficientby themselves, at least offer the prospect of improving the methodology ofanalyzing acquired skills and competencies. The benefit of increasedunderstanding is likely to be greater allocative efficiency through enhancedinformation.

Comparative surveys of adult literacy skills can offer baselineinformation for use in a future human capital accounting system that, byoffering additional insights into costs, risks, rates of return, and incentiveswill offer improved signals and information for investment decision making.


REFERENCES

Arrow, K. J. (1973). Higher education as a filter. Journal of Public Economics, 2, 193-216.

Bartel, A. P., & Lichtenberg, F. (1987). The comparative advantage of educated workers inimplementing new technology. Review of Economics and Statistics, 64, 1-11.

Bengtsson, J. (1991, December). Human resource development. Futures, 1085-1106.

Berryman, S. E. (1994). The role of literacy in the wealth of individuals and nations(Technical Report No. TR94-13). Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania, NationalCenter on Adult Literacy.

Bishop, J. (1987). The recognition and reward of employee performance. Journal of LaborEconomics, 5, S36-S56.

Bishop, J. (1990). Job performance, turnover and wage growth. Journal of Labor Economics,8, 363-386.

Blakemore, A., & Hoffman, D. (1989). Seniority rules and productivity: An empirical test.Econometrica, 56, 359-371.

Coleman, J. S. (1990). Foundations of social theory. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press ofHarvard University Press.

Daly, A. (1986). Education and productivity: A comparison of Great Britain and the UnitedStates. British Journal of Industrial Relations, 2, 251-266.

Daly, A., Hitchens, D. M. W. N., & Wagner, K. (1985). Productivity, machinery and skillsin a sample of British and German manufacturing plants. National Institute EconomicReview, 2, 48-61.

Denison, E. F. (1962). Sources of economic growth in the United States and the alternativesbefore us. New York: Committee for Economic Development.

Eliasson, G. (1993). The market for educational services: A micro-based model of macro-economic growth [Restricted document]. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development, Centre for Educational Research and Innovation.

Gardner, H. (1985). Frames of mind: The theory of multiple intelligences. New York: BasicBooks.

Griliches, Z., & Mason, W. M. (1972, May-June). Education, income, and ability. Journal ofPolitical Economy, 80 (2), S74-S103.

Hartmann, G., Nicholas, I., Sorge, A., & Warner, M. (1983). Computerised machine-tools,manpower consequences and skill utilisation: A study of British and West Germanmanufacturing firms. British Journal of Industrial Relations, 23.

Hull, G. (1993). Hearing other voices: A critical assessment of popular views on literacy andwork. Harvard Educational Review, 63(1), 20-44.

Jones, S. (in press). Measuring adult basic skills: A literature review. In A. Tuijnman, I.Kirsch, & D. A. Wagner, Adult basic skills: Innovations in measurement and policyanalysis. Cresskill, NJ: Hampton Press.

Jorgenson, D. W. (1984). The contribution of education to US economic growth, 1948-73. InE. Dean (Ed.), Education and economic productivity. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.

Kirsch, I., & Jungeblut, A. (in press). Using large-scale assessment results to identify andevaluate generalizable indicators of literacy (Technical Report). Philadelphia: Universityof Pennsylvania, National Center on Adult Literacy.


Kolstad, A. (in press). Information trade-offs in large-scale assessments. In A. Tuijnman, I.Kirsch, & D. A. Wagner, Adult basic skills: Innovations in measurement and policyanalysis. Cresskill, NJ: Hampton Press.

Lave, J., & Wenger, E. (1991). Situated learning: Legitimate peripheral participation.Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Lazear, E. P. (1981). Agency, earnings profiles, productivity, and hours restrictions.American Economic Review, 71, 606-620.

Mason, G., Prais, S. J., & van Ark, B. (1990). Vocational education and productivity inthe Netherlands and Britain (Discussion Paper No. 191). London: National Institute ofEconomic and Social Research.

Maurice, M., Sorge, A., & Warner, M. (1980). Societal differences in organisingmanufacturing units: A comparison of France, West Germany, and Great Britain.Organization Studies, 1, 59-86.

Miller, R. (1994). Investment knowledge and knowledge investment: The need to rethinkhuman capital information and decision-making systems [DEELSA document forgeneral distribution]. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD), Directorate for Education, Employment, Labour and Social Affairs.

Mohadjer, L., Berlin, M., Rieger, S., & Waksberg, J. (in press). The role of monetaryincentives in literacy survey research. In A. Tuijnman, I. Kirsch, & D. A. Wagner,Adult basic skills: Innovations in measurement and policy analysis. Cresskill, NJ:Hampton Press.

Mosenthal, P. (in press). Using large-scale assessments to set educational policy: Anagenda-analytic approach. In A. Tuijnman, I. Kirsch, & D. A. Wagner, Adult basicskills: Innovations in measurement and policy analysis. Cresskill, NJ: HamptonPress.

Murray, T. S. (in press). Proxy measurement of adult basic skills: Lessons from Canada(Technical Report). Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania, National Center onAdult Literacy

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (1973). Recurrenteducation: A strategy for lifelong learning. Paris: Centre for Educational Research andInnovation.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (1992). Adultilliteracy and economic performance. Paris: Centre for Educational Research andInnovation.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (1993). EmploymentOutlook, July 1993. Paris: Author.

Prais, S. J., Jarvis V., & Wagner, K. (1989, November). Productivity and vocationalskills in services in Britain and Germany: Hotels. National Institute EconomicReview, 310, 52-74.

Psacharopoulos, G. (1985). Returns to education: A further international update andimplications. Journal of Human Resources, 20, 584-604.

Smith, J., & Marsiske, M. (1994). Abilities and competencies in adulthood: Life-spanperspectives on workplace skills (Technical Report No. TR94-12). Philadelphia:University of Pennsylvania, National Center on Adult Literacy.

Spence, M. (1973). Job market signaling. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87, 355-374.

Steedman, H., & Wagner, K. (1987, November). Manufacturing in Britain : A second lookat productivity, machinery and skills in Britain and Germany. National InstituteEconomic Review, 122, 84-95.


Steedman, H., & Wagner, K. (1989, May). Productivity, machinery, and skills: Clothingmanufacture in Britain and Germany. National Institute Economic Review, 128, 40-57.

Tuijnman, A. C. (1989). Recurrent education, earnings, and well-being: A 50-yearlongitudinal study of a cohort of Swedish men. Acta Universitatis Stockholmiensis.Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell.

Tuijnman, A. C., Kirsch, I., & Wagner, D.A. (in press). Adult basic skills: Innovations inmeasurement and policy analysis. Cresskill, NJ: Hampton Press.

Van der Kamp, M. (in press). European traditions in literacy research and measurement. In A.Tuijnman, I. Kirsch, & D. A. Wagner, Adult basic skills: Innovations in measurementand policy analysis. Cresskill, NJ: Hampton Press.

Venezky, R. L. (in press). Literacy assessment in the service of literacy policy. In A.Tuijnman, I. Kirsch, & D. A. Wagner, Adult basic skills: Innovations in measurementand policy analysis. Cresskill, NJ: Hampton Press.

Wagner, D. A. (in press). Adult literacy assessment in comparative contexts. In A. Tuijnman,I. Kirsch, & D. A. Wagner, Adult basic skills: Innovations in measurement and policyanalysis. Cresskill, NJ: Hampton Press.

Willis, R. J., & Rosen, S. (1979). Education and self-selection. Journal of PoliticalEconomy, 87, S7-S36.

national - literacy.org · national center on adult literacy, university of pennsylvania, 3910...

Documents