KIT – The Research University in the Helmholtz Association www.cedim.de

Natural Disaster Modelling for WineJames Daniell (GPI), Katherine Daniell (Australia), Trevor Daniell (Australia), Andreas Schäfer (GPI),

Michael Kunz (IMK), Tina Kunz-Plapp (formerly GPI/IMK) et al. 110,000+ wineries in 7,500+ wine regions in 131 countries using over 1,500 grape types are making over 30 billion litres

annually at a value of $290 billion direct GDP and over $460 billion in capital stock.

• Wineries lose ca. $30 billion annually due to natural

catastrophes such as frost, hail and earthquake.

• The April frost of 2017 in Europe caused over $18 billion

impact accounting for price shifts of wine.

• Events such as the earthquake in Chile caused $1 billion

loss and hailstorms in Burgundy from 2012-14 caused a

50% loss of production.

This is the world’s first risk index for wine regions including economic impact via stochastic risk modelling of each

peril globally. A huge global effort of data aggregation, analysis and cooperation, the results were presented at the 2017

EGU for the first time and was featured in Science, Forbes and Spiegel and used in many regions of the world.

The results will continue to be developed

and the research continues into cost-

benefit analysis for risk mitigation and

resilience in the face of major impacts.

Hazard

Climate change impacts, energy impacts and other

analysis is being undertaken in conjunction with our

partners linking back into the Energy Risks toward 2025

CEDIM project as well as other industry projects.

Loss

Overall Combined Risk Index

1. Mendoza, Argentina and

San Juan, Argentina

2. Kakheti & Racha, Georgia

3. Cahul (Southern), Moldova

4. West Slovenia

5. Yaruqui Valley, Ecuador;

Nagano, Japan