new development report 2016 - the real deal · contract signed deals in downtown manhattan averaged...
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New Development Report
*Available inventory includes all units currently on the market as well as those not yet released.
First Quarter
BROOKLYNMANHATTAN
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED
$1,264AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED
$2,160
AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)*
755AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)*
4,043
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE
$1,324
$1,351
$2,114
$2,749
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE
-5% QoQ 9% QoQ
2016
MANHATTAN BROOKLYN
Summary Points
78% of all new development units entering into contract in Q1 2016 were priced under
$5M, a 9% increase year-over-year, while 22% were priced above $5M, an 8% decrease year-over-year. This marks increasing absorption in the mid-market price points. 19.3% of active listings remain priced above $10M, down from 22% in Q4 2015, while 4.1% of Contract Signed listings for Q1 2016 were above $10M, down 6% year-over-year.
Total Available new development inventory in Manhattan
decreased 5% in Q1 2016 to 4,043 units in Manhattan, down from 4,250 in Q4 2015. In Brooklyn, 755 new development units are available, up 9% from 694 in Q4 2015.
In Q1 2016, 246 new development units entered into contract in Manhattan, while 483 units closed, totaling 729 units sold. In Brooklyn, 104 units entered into contract while 40 units closed, for a total of 144 units sold. Based on the prior 12 months, Manhattan
averages 101 new development units entering contract per month, with 114 units closing per month. In Brooklyn, an average of 36 new development units enter into contract per month, while 11 units close per month.
Avg. PPSF for Contract Signed new development
units in Brooklyn rose 3.7% quarter-over-quarter to $1,324 in Q1 2016 from $1,276 PSF in Q4 2015. In Manhattan, Avg. PPSF for Contract Signed units fell slightly to $2,114 PSF in Q1 2016, a 1% drop from $2,138 PSF in Q4 2015, marking the third consecutive quarter of Avg PPSF in the low $2,100’s for Contract Signed units.
Midtown West
saw the largest
quarter-over-quarter increase in
Average PPSF at over 17.7%, rising
to $1,964 PSF. The Upper West Side
experienced the second largest quarter-
over-quarter increase, rising 15.9% from
Q4 2015 to $2,022 PSF in Q1 2016.
(Closed and Contract Signed).
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 First Quarter Report | 2
MEDIAN PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Active $2,254 $1,379
Contract Signed $2,054 $1,320
Closed $1,982 $1,244
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Active $2,749 $1,351
Contract Signed $2,114 $1,324
Closed $2,160 $1,264
MEDIAN PRICE
Active $4,030,000 $1,605,000
Contract Signed $2,715,000 $1,373,375
Closed $2,855,100 $897,250
AVERAGE PRICE
Active $7,297,288 $2,050,603
Contract Signed $3,713,608 $1,918,345
Closed $4,217,233 $1,024,197
TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS)
Total 9,183 1,783
Units Available 4,043 755
% Closed or Contract Signed
56.0% 57.6%
78% 5%
729UNITS
3.7% 17.7%
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 First Quarter Report | 3
Introduction
METHODOLOGY:
§ All data is provided by proprietary
Halstead Property Development
Marketing research.
§ This report tracks new development
projects only, defined as those new
to the market and currently selling
sponsor units. Buildings that have
fully sold out of sponsor units are not
included, even though they may have
recently been built. Resale data is not
included in this report.
§ All listings were compiled as of
3/21/16.
§ Total Inventory is defined all units
within new development projects that
are currently listed as Active, Contract
Signed, or Closed, as well as those
units not yet released to the market.
Available Units is defined as new
development units that are currently
listed as Active as well as those not
yet released to the market. These
numbers include units released prior
to 2016, provided they are in a project
that has not sold out all sponsor units.
By including currently unreleased
units that are not yet listed as Active
this data provides a unique and
comprehensive analysis of the current
new development market.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
MARKET OVERVIEW ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
MARKET OVERVIEW BY QUARTER ... . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
MANHATTAN NEIGHBORHOOD INSIGHT ... . . . .7
ANALYSIS BY UNIT TYPE ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
PRICE POINT ANALYSIS ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
TOTAL INVENTORY ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
FURTHER INSIGHT ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
HPDM is pleased to present our New
Development Report for Q1 2016.
This report focuses exclusively on the
NYC new development condominium
market, and aims to be the only report
of its kind presenting a comprehensive
picture of new development activity.
New development is unique from
the overall real estate market in that
closings often do not occur for 12 to
18 months after a buyer enters into
contract. Therefore, to fully understand
this market it is critical to track active
listings, listings in contract, closed
listings, as well as total inventory. This
report analyzes Q1 2016 as a whole
and is also a snapshot of current new
development market conditions.
In Manhattan, pricing for new
development units entering into
contract in Q1 2016 remained essentially
flat at $2,114 PSF, down 1% from Q4
2015. Avg. PPSF for closed new
development units rose over 9% to
$2,160 quarter-over-quarter, due largely
to delivery of units at 432 Park Avenue.
In Brooklyn, new development entering
into contract averaged $1,324 PSF,
up 3.7% from Q4 2015. Closed new
development deals in Brooklyn also
rose to an average of $1,264 PSF, up
3.7% from Q4 2015.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 First Quarter Report | 5
Market OverviewDowntown continued to see the most development activity in Manhattan in Q1 2016 with over 350 units
either entering into contract or closing. Next to Billionaire’s Row, Downtown Manhattan also continues to
be the area with the highest Avg. Active Price per Sq. Ft. at $2,829, down 4.5% from $2,964 in Q4 2015.
Contract Signed deals in Downtown Manhattan averaged $2,306 PSF in Q1 2016, down 2.2% from Q4 2015.
Brooklyn saw Contract Signed pricing rise 3.7% quarter-over-quarter to an average of $1,324 PSF in Q1 2016.
CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED
GROUND-UP VS. CONVERSIONS — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd
** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg.
NUMBER OF UNITS
GROUND UP CONVERSIONS NUMBER OF UNITS
$1,
03
9 $2,2
44
$2,5
05
$1,
99
2
$4
,35
4
$2,0
18
$2,3
16
$9
34 $1,
872
$1,
66
9
$1,
94
6
$2,3
09
$1,
38
9
$1,
30
3 100
200
300
400
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
Harlem UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
Ground Up vs. Conversions - Avg. Price per Sq. Ft.
4
58
124
109
19
43
356
144
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$2,3
30
$2,1
19
$6
,26
2
$2,5
04
$2,8
79
$1,
96
3
$2,8
86
$1,
75
0
$3
,911
$2,1
43
$2,4
22
$1,
726
$1,
924
$1,
619
$4
,98
2
$1,
90
8
$2,0
17
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$2,2
26
$9
72
$1,0
07
$9
80
$2,2
18
$2,0
74
$1,9
56
$2,19
8
$2,2
51
$1,7
27
$2,0
43
$2,0
08
$1,9
25
$5,6
49
$4
,153
$4
,378
$2,7
08
$2,0
94
$1,9
73
$2,8
29
$2,3
06
$2,3
17
$1,
35
1
$1,3
24
$1,2
64
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW*
MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 First Quarter Report | 6
Market Overview by Quarter
CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint,
Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg.
$2,5
48
$2,3
25
$1,
24
5
$8
49
$2,2
12
$2,1
58
$1,
76
9
$4
,98
1
$2,1
06
$2,3
82
$1,
314
$9
94
$1,
89
8
$1,
99
3
$1,
67
4
$4
,84
8
$1,
97
5
$2,2
18
$1,
29
1
$1,
112 $
1,7
45
$2,1
53
$1,
66
9
$5
,40
3
$1,
97
7
$2,3
43
$1,
26
5
$9
86
$2,0
22
$1,
778
$1,
96
4
$4
,35
4
$2,0
18
$2,3
13
$1,
30
8
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
Harlem UWS UES Midtown West Billionaire's Row Midtown East Downtown Brooklyn
Contract Signed and Closed - Avg. Price per Sq. Ft. - QoQ Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Q2 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW*
MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
$8
49
$2,1
58
$1,
76
9
$4
,98
1
$2,1
06
$2,3
82
$1,
314
$9
94
$1,
99
3
$1,
674
$4
,84
8
$1,
975
$2,2
18
$1,
29
1
$1,
112
$2,1
53
$1,
66
9
$5
,40
3
$1,
977
$2,3
43
$1,
26
5
$9
86
$1,
778
$1,
96
4
$4
,35
4
$2,0
18
$2,3
13
$1,
30
8
$2,2
12
$1,
89
8
$1,
74
5
$2,0
22
The graph below depicts pricing for Contract Signed and Closed units by
quarter. Midtown West saw the largest quarter-over-quarter increase in
Average PPSF at over 17.7%, rising to $1,964 PSF. The Upper West Side
experienced the second largest quarter-over-quarter increase, rising 15.9%
from Q4 2015 to $2,022 PSF in Q1 2016.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 First Quarter Report | 7
Outside of Billionaire’s Row, the highest average Contract Signed pricing in
Manhattan was achieved in the West Village at $2,936 PSF and the Flatiron
neighborhood at $2,743 for Q1 2016. The highest average Closed pricing outside
of Billionaire’s Row occurred in the West Village at $3,109 PSF followed by West
Chelsea at $2,732 PSF.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd
Manhattan Neighborhood Insight
UPTOWN AND MIDTOWN
MANHATTAN — GROUND-UP VS. CONVERSIONS - AVG. PRICE PER SQ.FT.
DOWNTOWN
MANHATTAN — ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Harlem UWS UES MidtownWest
MidtownEast
Chelsea WestChelsea
Hell’sKitchen
Billionaire’sRow
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$2,000
$1,000
$3,000
$4,000
$6,000
$5,000
$9
72
$2,2
18
$2,0
74
$1,
95
6
$2,19
8
$2,2
51
$1,727
$2,5
39
$2,5
80
$2,125
$5
,64
9
$4
,15
3
$4
,378
$2,7
08
$2,0
94
$1,
973
$2,6
31
$2,3
18
$1,
837 $3
,15
3
$2,4
79
$2,7
32
$1,
84
2
$1,73
9
$1,726$
98
0
$1,0
07
Flatiron GreenwichVillage
SoHo NoHo LES FinancialDistrict
TriBeCa WestVillage
EastVillage
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$2,000
$1,000
$3,000
$4,000
$6,000
$5,000
$3
,48
6
$2,7
61
$2,5
35
$2,7
43
$2,4
29 $
3,6
28
$2,15
0
$2,2
74
$3
,617
$2,9
36
$3
,10
9
$2,0
98
$2,0
58
$1,
43
3
$2,0
67
$2,6
07
$2,0
66
$3
,620
$3
,021
$2,5
43
$2,0
96
$2,5
74
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 First Quarter Report | 8
Analysis by Unit TypeMANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
MANHATTAN — MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE
BROOKLYN — MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE
MANHATTAN — TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM
BROOKLYN — TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM
$4M
$2M
$6M
$8M
$10M
$12M
$14M
$16M
$18M
$20M
52
394
539
414
209
67
5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
500
400
300
200
100
600
NUMBER OF UNITS
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS
$8
35
K
$8
45
K
$1.
1M
$1.
24
M
$1.
56
M
$1.
39
M
$2.7
5M
$2.8
9M
$2.9
6M
$5
.19
M
$4
.9M
$6
.3M
$10
.26
M
$6
.61M
$6
.49
M
$17
.25
M
$15
.6M
$11
M
4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
NUMBER OF UNITS
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS
$5
75
K
$8
59
K
$1.
52M
$2,.6
M
$3
.91M
$6
15K
$8
84
K
$1.
47M $1.
96
M
$4
.46
M
$772K
$1.
34
M
$2.0
7M
&'"
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
$500K
$1M
$1.5M
$2M
$2.5M
$3M
$3.5M
$4M
$4.5M
$5M
23
111 106
75 37
5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
21
15
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
20
7
272
24
9
153
68 77
58 18
5
119
190
107
38
50
100
150
200
250
300
19 12 47
0
4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
66
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
56
67
47
28
12
30
26
26
9
25
13 2
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
11
In Q1 2016 two bedroom units experienced the most deal volume by unit type in
Manhattan, with approximately 270 two bedroom units entering into contract or closing
in Manhattan. In Brooklyn, one bedroom units saw the most deal volume by unit type
in Q1 2016 with 55 units entering into contract or closing. Median Contract Signed
pricing for two bedrooms in Manhattan continues to rise, increasing 2.3% to $2.89M. In
Brooklyn, median Contract Signed pricing for one bedrooms rose 3.8% QoQ to $883k.
In Manhattan, two bedrooms have the most Active listings at over 270, while two
bedrooms also comprise the most Active listings in Brooklyn at over 65.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 First Quarter Report | 9
Price Point Analysis MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
42.6
%
7.5
%
9.9
%
7.3
%
13.8
% 18.8
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
30
.2%
30
.2%
22.2
%
9.9
%
5.2
%
4.7
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
23
.6%
19.5
%
9.8
%
21.
5%
11.0
%
14.6
%
26
.4%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
39
.4%
34
.6%
12.5
%
3.8
%
3.8
%
5.8
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
9.9
%
20
.9%
11.2
%
7.5
%
23
.2%
27.3
%
0.0
%
0.0
%
0.0
%
2.5
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
57.5
%
40
.0%
42.6% of all Active new development listings in Manhattan are priced above $5M,
down from 49.2% in Q4 2015. 19.3% Active listings remain priced above $10M,
down from 22% in Q4 2015, while only 4.1% of Contract Signed listings for Q1 2016
were above $10M.
Q1 2016 PRICE POINT MANHATTAN — ACTIVE
Q1 2016 PRICE POINT BROOKLYN — ACTIVE
MANHATTAN — CONTRACT SIGNED
BROOKLYN — CONTRACT SIGNED BROOKLYN — CLOSED
MANHATTAN — CLOSED
Brooklyn saw a sharp increase in percentage of deals closed at lower price points,
with total percentage of closed new development deals from $1M to $2M rising to
40% in Q1 2016 from 17% in Q4 2015.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 First Quarter Report | 10
251 FIRST 251 FIRST STREET, PARK SLOPE
www.251First.com
HPDM Pipeline60 DEVELOPMENTS - 1,100 UNITS - $1,700,000,000 IN GROSS SALES
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 First Quarter Report | 11
Total Inventory MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
The largest amount of total inventory in Manhattan is concentrated in the Upper
East Side, followed closely by the Upper West Side and the Financial District. In
Brooklyn the highest total inventory is found in Williamsburg, Prospect Heights, and
DUMBO. The graphs below present total inventory by neighborhood along with the
corresponding percentage of units sold.
MANHATTAN TOTAL INVENTORY
BROOKLYN TOTAL INVENTORY
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FINANCIALDISTRICT
LESWEST EASTVILLAGE VILLAGE
TRIBECANOHOSOHOGREEN.VILLAGE
FLATIRONGRAM.PARK
HELL'SKITCHEN
WESTCHELSEA
CHELSEAMIDTOWNEAST
BN.ROW*
MIDTOWNWEST
UESUWSHARLEM
60%
35%
84%
66%
82%
58%
45% 59%
77%
59%
670
31
45
9
1171
19
143
48
46
5
132
85
53
8
162
PERCENTAGE SOLD
81% 66%
43%51%
67%
56%
49%
50%
95%
TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD
118
4
124
4
96
4
114
57
23
0
870
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
PROSPECTHEIGHTS
GREENPOINTDUMBODOWNTOWNBROOKLYN
BOERUM HILLCROWN HEIGHTS
CLINTON HILLCARROLL GARDENS
BROOKLYNHEIGHTS
75%
0%
40%
100%
173
18 14
35
7
188
144
3632
13
121
PERCENTAGE SOLD
PARK SLOPE
24%
63
WILLIAMSBURG
42% 43
0
90%
88%
63%62%
92%
TOTAL UNITS
50
150
100
200
300
250
400
350
450
500
Total Inventory is defined as all new development units, both currently listed as either
Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the
market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are either currently
listed as Active or those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units
released prior to 2016, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor
units. This data provides a comprehensive look at new development inventory by
including unreleased units.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 First Quarter Report | 12
Further Insight
Downtown Manhattan continued to experience the most new development
activity by volume in Q1 2016, followed by Brooklyn and the Upper East Side. Most
notably, closed deal volume increased in Downtown Manhattan by 75% quarter-
over-quarter, rising from 138 units in Q4 2015 to 242 units in Q1 2016. Closings
also increased sharply in the Upper East Side, rising from 17 units in the previous
quarter to 111 units in Q1 2016.
Studio and one bedroom units in Brooklyn are becoming more efficiently sized, widening
the square footage gap between Manhattan and Brooklyn in those unit types. Currently,
median sizing for new development studios in Brooklyn is 461 sq. ft., while in Manhattan
the median size is 590 sq. ft. Median size for one bedroom units in Brooklyn is 654 sq.ft.,
while the median for one bedroom units in Manhattan is 791 sq. ft.
NEW DEVELOPMENT LISTINGS BY NEIGHBORHOOD MEDIAN SIZE (SQ. FT.) BY UNIT TYPE
BKLYN**UPPERMANHATTAN
DOWNTOWNBNROW*
MIDTOWNWEST
MIDTOWNEAST
UWSUES
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
145
77 89 93
81
418
53
212
13
33
16 27
51
58 2
114
17
10411
1
25
17
24
2
3
40
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5 BR4 BR3 BR2 BR1 BRSTUDIO
MANHATTAN BROOKLYN
59
0.5
79
1
2,3
22
46
1
65
4
1,70
5
1,4
59
1,0
84
3,2
17
4,4
80
2,6
63
4,1
87
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint,
Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg.
MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
Contact
445 Park Avenue, 12th Floor | New York, NY 10022
HPDMNY.com
212 521 5757
COMING THIS QUARTER
318 W 47
Hell’s Kitchen
318w47.com
610 Warren
Boerum Hill
www.610Warren.com
Prepared by Matthew Petrallia, Director of Market Research and AnalyticsThe information presented here has been gathered from resources deemed reliable and refined by HPDM internal research, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. This information may not be copied, commercially used or distributed without HPDM’s prior consent.
For questions or comments regarding this report please contact [email protected]