New England North West Region – What’s Happening with Housing Supply and does it match Demand?The majority of households in the New England North West are couple or single person households, yet the housing stock is primarily comprised of three or four bedroom detached homes. This housing was built at a time when families were the predominant household type, yet this is no longer the case in this Region. Lone person or couple only households are the household types which are forecast to be the fastest growing in the New England North West to 2036. The housing stock needs to adapt to better match households requirements. Proactive measures are necessary to diversify bedroom mix and increase the supply of studio, one and two bedroom dwellings to provide housing choice to smaller households and enable empty nesters to downsize.

Dwelling Type At the 2016 Census there were 75,966 dwellings in the New England North West

Region, of which 66,318 (or 87.3%) were occupied. As for the Rest of NSW, at the 2016 Census, the vast majority of occupied

dwellings in New England North West were separate houses. Separate houses comprised 88% of all occupied dwellings in the region compared with 57% on average across Sydney and 82.2% in the Rest of NSW. The proportion of separate houses ranged between 96% of occupied dwellings in Uralla and 83% in Moree Plains.

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The previous graph shows the proportion of households in each of the key dwelling types in the New England North West LGAs and Rest of NSW at the 2016 Census – note that there is no information on the breakdown of dwelling type for unoccupied dwellings.

A further 5% of occupied dwellings are attached houses (compared with 14% in Sydney and 9% in the Rest of NSW) and 4% of occupied dwellings are flats (compared with 29% in Sydney and 7% in the Rest of NSW).

Armidale Regional (9%) and Tamworth Regional (8%) had higher proportions of occupied attached housing than the average for New England North West (5%), with Moree Plains (5%) having an equivalent proportion.

Moree Plains (10%) had the highest proportion of units in New England North West, with Inverell (6%), Armidale Regional, Gunnedah and Narrabri (5%) and Glen Inns Severn (4%) also having higher or equivalent proportions than the average of 4% in the region.

These figures demonstrate a lack of diversity in dwelling type across the region. According to 2016 Census data, there were 398 households living in caravan,

cabin/ houseboat accommodation in the region. This is down from 695 at the 2006 Census and 467 at the 2011 Census.

Caravan or residential parks are one of the few remaining affordable housing options for lower income earners. The loss of this accommodation reduces options for lower income households and reduces flexibility to deal with seasonal workers and changes in mining workforces. Tamworth Regional (111) had the highest remaining numbers of caravan, cabin/ houseboat dwellings in the region at 2016, followed by Narrabri (48) and Moree Plains (44).

The graph below shows the change from 2011 to 2016 in the number of unoccupied dwellings in each of the New England North West LGAs.

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This is an interesting change – with three LGAs experiencing strong increases in unoccupied dwellings while all the other New England North West LGAs experienced a decline.

Overall the region experienced an increase of 1,138 or 13% in unoccupied private dwellings between 2011 and 2016, in line with the trend in the Rest of NSW. However, the increase in the region was much stronger than the 1.5% average increase across the Rest of NSW.

Unoccupied dwellings in the region comprised 13% of the total number of dwellings, well above the average of 8% for Sydney and equivalent to the average of 13% for the Rest of NSW. At the 2016 Census a total of 9,645 dwellings were unoccupied across the region. Tenterfield had the highest proportion with 19%, followed by Walcha (18%) and Glen Innes Severn, Gwydir, Liverpool Plains and Moree Plains all with 15%. Inverell had the lowest proportion with 10%.

Bedroom Mix The graph below shows the proportion of studio, one, two, three and four or more

bedroom occupied dwellings in the New England North West at the 2016 Census.

The graph clearly demonstrates the dominance of three and four bedroom homes, together comprising 86.6% of all dwellings in New England North West, compared to 74.4% in Sydney and 85.5% in the Rest of NSW. There is little

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variation across the region, with the proportion of three and four bedroom homes ranging from 88.8% in Tamworth Regional to 79.3% in Tenterfield.

Separately, four or more bedrooms comprise 42.2% and three bedroom dwellings 44.3% of all homes in New England North West.

By contrast, studios make up just 0.2% of dwellings; one bedroom homes comprise 1.2% and two bedrooms 10.3% of residential stock on average across the region.

Within the region, Tenterfield has the highest proportion of studio homes (0.7%), one bedroom properties (2.7%) and two bedroom dwellings (15.2%). Inverell and Tamworth Regional had the lowest proportion of studios (0.1%), Walcha had the lowest proportion of one bedroom homes (0.5%) and Tamworth Regional had the lowest proportion of two bedroom dwellings (8.4%).

Given that lone person and couple only households comprised 52.7% of all households in New England North West, the fact that studio and one bedroom homes combined comprise just 1.4% of the housing stock shows a significant mismatch between household type and dwelling size and an extraordinary lack of housing choice for smaller households.

The forecast increase in lone person and couple only households as well as older age groups in the region is likely to increase the demand for smaller, more manageable and affordable homes.

Ideally there should be an increase in the number of studio, one and two bedroom dwellings to suit these household types and offer some housing choice. Two bedroom dwellings in particular offer the most flexibility, given they are also suitable for small families.

Tenure At the 2016 Census, 33.9% of New England North West region households

owned their home outright (compared to 27.7% in Sydney and 35.5% in the Rest of NSW); a further 25.8% owned their home with a mortgage in the region (compared to 31.5% in Sydney and 28.6% in the Rest of NSW).

Private renters comprise 25.0% of households (above the average of 22.3% in the Rest of NSW and compared to 28.0% in Sydney); while 3.2% of households rent through the state housing authority (4.0% in Sydney, 3.5% in the Rest of NSW) and 1.0% rent through a housing cooperative, church group or not for profit (0.6% in Sydney and 0.7% in the Rest of NSW).

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The graph above shows the proportion of households in each tenure type in each of the New England North West LGAs, the region and Rest of NSW at the 2016 Census. Note SHA refers to the state housing authority.

Between 2011 and 2016, there was a 2.3% decrease in the number of households who owned their home outright (compared to a 2.8% increase in the Rest of NSW) and a 1.4% decrease in the number of households who owned their home with a mortgage (compared to 2.0% in the Rest of NSW.)

In addition, over the same period there was a 3.4% increase in the number of households in private rental in New England North West, compared with a 2.4% increase on average in the Rest of NSW.

The longer term trend in Sydney and NSW has been a decline in the proportion of households owning their home outright and increases in the proportion of households who are purchasing and who rent. New England North West conforms with the decline in households owning outright and increase in households renting, but given the decline in the proportion of households purchasing their home – it is out of alignment with that trend. There is variation between LGAs within the region.

Across the New England North West LGA’s:o Tenterfield has the highest proportion of households owning their home

outright (45.3%), followed by Gwydir (44.8%) and Walcha (44.3%) with Moree Plains having the lowest proportion at 26.4%.

o Uralla has the highest proportion of households with a mortgage (31.3%), followed by Tamworth Regional (28.9%) and Gunnedah (27.8%) with Gwydir having the lowest proportion (19.1%).

o Armidale Regional has the highest proportion of households in the private rental market with 28.6%, followed by Moree Plains with 27.2% and Gunnedah with 26.7%, while Tenterfield has the lowest proportion with 18.3%.

The general trend is increasing numbers of households relying on the private rental market as a long term tenure rather than a transitional one between leaving

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home and buying a home, as housing costs have increased much faster than wages.

It is therefore important to encourage tenure diversity and a range of price points to meet local needs.

Public Housing The table below shows the number of public housing properties in the New

England North West region LGAs as at June 2017. Please note that Census data on public housing is not particularly accurate, as public housing tenure is under reported in the Census. The figures below do not include community housing properties.

AREAPublic housing stock

Armidale Regional 365Glen Innes Severn 1Gunnedah 7Gwydir 0Inverell 167Liverpool Plains 27Moree Plains 203Narrabri 163Tamworth Regional 749Tenterfield 2Uralla 9Walcha 20New England North West 1,713Rest of NSW 36,431

The table below shows the expected waiting times for general housing approved social housing applicants (not for priority housing applicants) by bedroom category in the New England North West Region as at 30 June 2019.

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Expected Waiting Time

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ALLOCATION ZONE 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed

NN43 ARMIDALE 2-5 years 2-5 years 5-10 years Up to 2 years

NN44 BARRABA 10+ years 10+ years 10+ years

NN45 BINGARA

NN46 GLEN INNES 2-5 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years 2-5 years

NN47 GUNNEDAH 2-5 years 2-5 years 2-5 years 5-10 years

NN48 GUYRA 2-5 years 2-5 years 2-5 years

NN49 INVERELL 5-10 years 2-5 years 2-5 years 2-5 years

NN50 MANILLA

NN51 MOREE Up to 2 years 2-5 years 2-5 years 5-10 years

NN52 MUNGINDI Up to 2 years Up to 2 years

NN53 NARRABRI 2-5 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years

NN54 WERRIS CREEK 2-5 years Up to 2 years 10+ years

NN55 QUIRINDI Up to 2 years 5-10 years 2-5 years

NN56 EMMAVILLE

NN57 TAMWORTH 2-5 years 2-5 years 2-5 years 2-5 years

NN58 TENTERFIELD 2-5 years 2-5 years Up to 2 years 2-5 years

NN59 URALLA 5-10 years Up to 2 years 2-5 years

NN60 WALCHA 2-5 years 2-5 years Up to 2 years 2-5 years

NN62 BOGGABRI

NN63 BOGGABILLA 2-5 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years

NN64 CURLEWIS

NN65 GWABEGAR 2-5 years

NN66 PALLAMALLAWA

NN67 TINGHA 5-10 years 10+ years

NN68 WARIALDA

NN69 DELUNGRA

NN70 WEE WAA Up to 2 years Up to 2 years 2-5 years

Information on Expected Waiting Times for Public Housing is available on the FACS website by region at:

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/housing/help/applying-assistance/expected-waiting-times

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The Gap Almost every LGA in the New England North West region has experienced an

increase in low income rental households from the 2011 Census. This occurred even in LGAs which experienced a decline in low income households generally.

At the same time there has been a significant decline in the number of properties in the private rental market affordable to low income households, with a decline of 2,485 or 62% in the number of new bonds lodged that were affordable to low income households between 2006 and 2017. Armidale Regional had the largest numeric loss with 564 fewer affordable bonds lodged over that time frame.

This has led to a marked increase in the number of low income rental households in housing stress across the region – with an average increase of 15% in the Region between 2011 and 2016. Tamworth Regional had the highest numeric increase in the region over that period with 1,826 more very low and low income households in rental stress.

This demonstrates the growing need for provision of targeted affordable rental housing for lower income households.

Price growth in median rents in the region over the last decade ranged from 32.4% in Liverpool Plains to 91.3% in Walcha between 2009 and 2019.

Between 2006 and 2019 the vacancy rate in New England has fluctuated, with periods of both over and undersupply.

There is a growing gap between the increasing number of low income rental households and the declining number of properties affordable for rental by low income households in New England North West, as demonstrated in the graph below. The graph compares the number of renters on low incomes with the number of new bonds lodged that were affordable to rent for low income households at different periods between 2006 and 2017.

The significant increase in the number of low and very low income households in rental stress in the region between 2011 and 2016 implies strong demand for affordable housing.

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Older age cohorts are forecast to increase the fastest to 2036 in the region and DPIE also predict that lone person and couple only households will grow fastest in New England North West.

There is already a significant mismatch between household type and bedroom number across the region. With an increase in smaller households, this disparity will only worsen unless proactive measures are taken to increase the supply of studio, one and two bedroom homes. This will enable some measure of choice for smaller households and give older residents some options to downsize.

Given the current overwhelming supply of three and four bedrooms, strong incentives/requirements would need to be put in place to ensure a better balance and more diversity to meet housing need.

The graph below compares the number of smaller household types - lone person and couple only – with the amount of studio and one bedroom accommodation available. It is clear that if smaller households wished to live in smaller housing, they have very little opportunity to do so. While 52.7% of households in New England North West are lone person or couple, only 1.4% of dwelling stock is studio or one bedroom.

This mismatch can impact on affordability, with smaller households required to consume more housing than they need because of lack of choice.

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Secondary dwellings suit a range of groups including small households, young people, frail aged and people with disability needing support from family. They may be readily encouraged on larger lots with reasonable access to centres providing a range of services and facilities.

New generation boarding houses would also help fulfil some of this demand – particularly as they cannot be subdivided and must provide private rental accommodation.

This type of accommodation is suitable for single people and also couples, for key workers and students. It also has potential to assist in providing accommodation/meeting additional housing demand for seasonal workers and mine workers.

Where they are developed by community housing providers they will provide affordable rental for lower income earners. Note that the NSW Community Housing Industry Association has an Affordable Housing Tool Kit to help deal with community resistance to affordable housing available on their website. They also have a couple of excellent vimeos showcasing new generation boarding house developments and their tenants.

The next graph compares larger household types – couple family with children, one parent family and group households – with the amount of three and four or more bedroom accommodation available. It is clear that there is a significant oversupply of larger dwellings, by comparison with the household types which might need large homes.

This mismatch will be exacerbated by the forecast increase in smaller households and by the continued addition of bedrooms to existing dwellings. Additions of bedrooms to existing stock has a significant impact on bedroom mix across LGAs and the region.

The high proportion of lone person and couple only households further suggests it is important to continue to encourage provision of one and two bedroom stock, to maintain a balance to meet local need, particularly where there are higher proportions of seniors and frail aged. This will give older residents opportunity to downsize into more manageable and appropriate homes.

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Two bedroom homes in particular are the most flexible as they are suitable for small (lone person and couple) households as well as small families.

Who needs affordable housing A wide range of people need affordable housing. Single income earners who fall

into the low income category include aged care and disability workers, retail sales assistants, production workers, receptionists and early career child care workers, as well as students and apprentices. People working in accommodation and food services comprise around 8% of the workforce nationally (6.6% in New England North West) and are amongst the lowest paid workers. Similarly retail trade employs 10.0% of workers in the region.

Given the extent of drought and bushfires, many employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing have been struggling financially. The Australian Institute of Family Studies undertook a significant Regional and Rural Families Survey and made a submission to the Productivity Commission’s Inquiry into Government Drought Support. The submission1 found:

o “As would be expected, the largest impacts of drought appeared to be economic, with large effects on household income, the experience of financial hardship and deterioration in household financial position” and

o “Importantly, there was also evidence that drought had a negative impact upon farm workers and on people who were employed in rural areas but not in agriculture. The effects for those who were employed but not in agriculture were largely financial, with a negative and statistically significant impact upon household income and a higher likelihood of saying that the financial position of their household had become worse over the last 3 years.” (p5)

Students also need affordable housing. The Commonwealth Government commissioned an Independent Review into Regional, Rural and Remote

1 Social and economic impacts of drought on farm families and rural communities. Submission to the Productivity Commission’s Inquiry into Government Drought Support. Prepared by Ben Edwards, Matthew Gray and Boyd Hunter, Australian Institute of Family Studies.

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Education in March 2017. The affordability and accessibility of university accommodation arose as a potential issue deterring the number of regional, rural and remote (RRR) students choosing to pursue higher education.

The study2 indicated that students (pages v and vi):o Looking to enter tertiary education can experience difficulties receiving

government assistance (such as Youth Allowance);o Applying for government financial assistance do not receive their first

payment until March meaning they need to borrow money to meet upfront costs to relocate, including rent in advance and bonds;

o Can face challenges securing affordable on-campus accommodation, especially where there is strong competition; and

o Are being deterred from studying at university due to the high costs of living in some locations.

While universities own and operate student accommodation, a significant proportion of students (28% nationally) rely on private rental accommodation.

Single income households in particular are less able to compete in the housing market.

Increasing numbers of older single women are homeless or at risk of homelessness due to the lack of available affordable rental housing.

Aboriginal residents are strongly over represented in the homeless population in the region.

Partnering or collaborating with community housing providers is one effective way to meet some of the local need for appropriate affordable housing. Community housing providers are not for profit owners, managers and developers of affordable rental housing for lower income households and residents with specific housing needs. They work with partners, investors and government to provide housing and deliver support for tenants. For more information about community housing providers, see the NSW Community Housing Industry Association website.

Additional DataMore detailed housing data and tables used in this Snapshot are available from the Local Government Housing Kit Database on the Housing NSW website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Centre+For+Affordable+Housing/NSW+Local+Government+Housing+Kit/Local+Government+Housing+Kit+Database/

More information on Expected Waiting Times for Public Housing is available on the Housing NSW website by region at:

http://www.housingpathways.nsw.gov.au/How+to+Apply/Expected+Waiting+Times/

Additional data on social housing delivery is available on the FACS website at:

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/resources/statistics/social-housing-delivery

2 Regional Student Accommodation Assessment prepared for Department of Education and Training 2 February 2018 by Urbis

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More information about community housing providers is available on the NSW CHIA (Community Housing Industry Association) website, including their affordable housing tool kit. The Tool Kit is based on extensive research about reasons for community resistance to affordable housing, and effective ways of building support for affordable housing:

https://nswfha.wpengine.com/lb/toolkits/ahtk/toolkit/

The NSW CHIA 2018 community housing state of the industry report is also available:

http://communityhousing.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/StateoftheIndustry-web.pdf

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