Riverina Murray Region – What’s Happening with Housing Supply and is it a good match? There are a range of household types in the region. A well-functioning housing

market would provide appropriate accommodation opportunities for all types of household and income groups. Twelve local government areas in the Riverina Murray region had a lower proportion of couple family with children households than the average for the Rest of NSW at the 2016 Census. There has been a decline in the proportion of this household type, stronger in each of the LGAs in the region than for the Rest of NSW. There are significant and growing proportions of single person, couple only and single parent households and the number of lone person households is forecast to increase in more than half of the LGAs in the region.

However this is not reflected in the housing supply across the region. In fact there is less variation within the region in dwelling type and bedroom mix and the match between household type and bedroom number is uneven.

Dwelling Type The vast majority of dwellings in the Riverina Murray region at the 2016 Census

are separate houses. The overwhelming majority of housing in the region would have been built at a time when couple families with children were the dominant household type. Now smaller households (couples and single person households) predominate and are expected to continue to increase across the region.

The census disaggregates dwelling type for occupied stock. Occupied, separate houses comprise 87% of total occupied private dwellings, ranging between 80% in Albury to 97% in Coolamon. Only Albury has a lower proportion of separate houses than the average of 82% across the Rest of NSW.

With substantial additions to the stock of attached houses (including semi-detached, row and terrace housing) since 2011, Albury has the highest proportion of this type at 17% of occupied stock, whilst Lockhart and Murrumbidgee have none. The average for the Rest of NSW is 6%.

Occupied flats are also more common in Albury (16%), Deniliquin (11%), Griffith (10%) and Wagga Wagga (11%). The Rest of NSW had 8% in 2016.

At the 2016 Census there were 566 households living in caravan, cabin and houseboat accommodation in the region, down from 724 in 2006. Caravan or residential parks are one of the few remaining affordable housing options for lower income earners and this decline is another indicator of the loss of affordable housing. It is also an indicator of reduced flexibility in the housing market. Such accommodation helps cater for seasonal, short term, transitional and fly in fly out or drive in drive out workforce requirements.

2016 Census data indicates that 14,554 dwellings (of all types) in the region were unoccupied. Twelve of the LGAs in this region had higher proportions of unoccupied dwellings than the average of 15% for the Rest of NSW, with Murrumbidgee and Hay having the highest at 27%. Griffith and Wagga Wagga have the lowest at 11%.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

The graph below shows the proportion of key dwelling types in each local government area in the region as well as for the Rest of NSW. It demonstrates the lack of diversity in dwelling types in the Riverina Murray region, the dominance of detached housing and the prevalence of unoccupied housing.

Bedroom Mix At the 2016 Census, 44% of households in the region lived in three bedroom

dwellings. 33% live in larger dwellings of four or more bedrooms, whilst 20% live in smaller dwellings of two or fewer bedrooms. The distribution of bedrooms by occupied dwelling is shown in the graph below for 2016:

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

In total 77% of occupied private dwellings had 3 or more bedrooms In Riverina Murray. Yet at 2016, only 35% of households were families. That suggests that large numbers of small households (with one or two residents), which comprise 53% of all households, are occupying large homes.

A key determinant of how effective the housing market is in meeting housing need is the allocation of appropriate dwellings to the households that need them. Ideally larger dwellings should accommodate larger households and smaller dwellings cater for smaller households. In the Riverina Murray region there is a clear pattern of family households occupying larger dwellings. There is also a clear pattern of smaller households occupying larger homes. This is because the overwhelming majority of housing has 3 or more bedrooms.

Census data shows that between 2001 and 2016 there has been a significant increase in family household occupation of four or more bedroom dwellings across the region, and less occupation of dwellings with fewer bedrooms. Families are consistently moving into more space. This shift is illustrated in the graph below:

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

There are 7,522 fewer family households occupying 1, 2 and 3 bedroom homes, whilst there has been a 5,995 increase in the number of family households occupying four bedroom homes.

However, at the same time the number of private dwellings has increased from 2001 to 2016 by 20% so it is possible that a range of things are happening- families are moving into existing larger dwellings, families are building additional bedrooms onto existing dwellings and more new homes comprised of four or more bedrooms are being constructed for them to occupy. Note also that on balance there were 1,527 fewer homes occupied by family households by 2016, which reflects the decline in the proportion of family household numbers in the region between 2001 and 2016.

The following chart illustrates this further:

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

What is of concern though is that a certain proportion of family households live in bedsit, studio apartments or other accommodation with no separate bedroom, or in one bedroom homes. Although only 1% of family households live in accommodation with one bedroom or less (such as studio units), 10% live in two bedroom accommodation. This is an indicator of the lack of affordable accommodation.

It is worth noting that new dwelling construction comprises around 1% of total dwellings (depending on the location and stage in the residential development cycle) with the remaining 99% of homes being existing established dwellings. Consequently additions to existing stock can have a significant impact on the bedroom mix and long term suitability of housing stock to meet housing need, including household size and affordability. Therefore it is important to note the increase in four bedroom dwellings suitable for families through such additions.

The prominence of larger dwellings raises two important issues relating to lack of choice. First, is the ability for older residents to downsize from larger family dwellings to smaller dwellings that are easier to manage and in which they may retain their independence. The proportion of people over the age of 65 in the LGAs in the region ranges from 15% in Wagga Wagga and Carathool to as high as 29% in Berrigan. Twelve of the region’s LGAs have more residents over 65 year olds than the Rest of NSW (21%). Furthermore, the median age throughout the region is increasing, and this will become more of a problem over time. Second, the Department of Planning, Industry and the Environment predicts that lone person and couple only households will continue to increase in numbers in the region through to 2036, and these households need to access accommodation more suited to their needs - such as studio, one and two bedroom dwellings. A lack of smaller dwellings reduces choice for these groups. Consuming more housing than they need may also impact on the price of housing – renting or purchasing three bedrooms when they only need one or two is likely to cost more.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Tenure At the 2016 Census, most households living in the region owned their own home

outright (34%), whilst 28% were in the process off paying off a mortgage for their home. This is a substantial drop since the 2001 Census, when 45% of households owned their own home and 24% were buying with a mortgage. The rest rented their accommodation privately, from a social housing association, cooperative, or other landlords.

In 2001 11% of households lived in private rental (via estate agent) which increased to 15% in 2016. If all forms of private rental, including renting from other landlords than estate agents, such as renting from persons not in the same household, renting from housing cooperatives or church community groups, and renting from other landlords then the total renting privately increases to around 25%.

The chart below illustrates the distribution of tenure as at the 2016 Census.

The pattern of tenure is different for Aboriginal households, where 53% are tenants (including those in social housing), whilst 14% own their home and 27% are paying off a mortgage.

The following graph sets out the proportion of different tenure types by LGA for the region as at the 2016 Census:

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Home ownership or purchase accounts for the largest portion of tenure type, with private rental through a real estate agent accounting for as little as 3% in Carrathool to as much as 22% in Albury. Social housing rentals comprise a small proportion, ranging from 0.4% in Murray River and 0.5% in Berrigan, to 3.9% in Gundagai and 4.4% in Wagga Wagga.

The trend across the Rest of NSW since 2011 has been for a decline in the proportion of households which own their home or are purchasing one. In the Riverina Murray region, all LGAs similarly experienced a decline in the proportion of home ownership (excluding those purchasing) between 2001 and 2016, though the decline has ended in Albury and, to an extent in Snowy Valleys.

The proportion of those purchasing (i.e. with a mortgage) is in decline in most LGAs since 2011, with the exception (in 2016) of Greater Hume and Murray River. Between 2001 and 2006 there was a sharp upswing in home purchase throughout the region- the general trend to a reduction in the proportion purchasing a home probably reflects house price increases and reduced affordability since 2011.

The following graph illustrates the decline in the proportion of home ownership:

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

By contrast, overall across the region there has been a 4.7% increase in the number of private rental households between 2011 and 2016. Some LGAs experienced a decline in the number of private rental households (Bland, Greater Hume, Hay, Murray River, Narrandera and Snowy Valleys), while the majority (Albury (9.1%), Berrigan (4.9%), Carrathool (6.4%), Coolamon (13.8%), Edward River (4.3%), Federation (2.0%), Griffith (2.9%), Gundagai (8.7%), Junee (7.0%), Leeton (7.0%), Lockhart (1.7%), Murrumbidgee (7.7%), Temora (2.4%) and Wagga Wagga (8.0%) experienced an increase, in line with the trend for the Rest of NSW, which had an increase of 2.4%.

The graph below shows the proportional change in private rental households in the Riverina Murray between 2011 and 2016.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Public HousingThe table below shows the number of public housing properties in the Riverina Murray region in 2014 and 2017. Most public housing is in Albury, Griffith, Gundagai, Leeton, Snowy Valleys and Wagga Wagga. Note that Census data on public housing is not particularly accurate, as public housing tenure is under-reported in the Census. The figures below do not include community housing properties.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

2014 2017

Albury 899 915 Berrigan - - Bland 32 32 Carrathool - - Coolamon 3 3 Edward River - -

Conargo - Deniliquin -

Federation 39 Corowa Shire 39 Urana -

Greater Hume Shire 4 Griffith 312 315 Gundagai 221

Cootamundra 186 Gundagai 36

Hay 30 30 Junee 71 65 Leeton 158 158 Lockhart 3 3 Murray River - -

Murray - Wakool -

Murrumbudgee 4 JerilderieMurrumbidgee 4

Narrandera 46 46 Snowy Valleys 204

Tumbarumba 14 Tumut Shire 191

Temora 60 66

Local Government Area

Around 3% of all households in the region live in state housing according to Census data for 2016 (and 16% of Aboriginal households).

The table below shows the expected waiting times for general housing approved social housing applicants (not for priority housing applicants) by bedroom category in the Riverina Murray region as at 30 June 2019. Additional data on the number of general and priority applicants by allocation zone is available on the website at

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/housing/help/applying-assistance/expected-waiting-times

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Expected Waiting Time by Table

ALLOCATION ZONE 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed

S091 ALBURY 2-5 years 2-5 years 2-5 years 5-10 years

S093 BERRIGAN 10+ years 10+ years

S094 WEST WYALONG Up to 2 years 2-5 years Up to 2 years 2-5 years

S096 HILLSTON/CARRATHOOL 2-5 years 10+ years

S098 COOLAMON 10+ years Up to 2 years

S099 COOTAMUNDRA 2-5 year 2-5 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years

S100 COROWA 2-5 years Up to 2 years Up to 2

Up to 2 years 2-5 years

S101 CULCAIRN 10+ years 10+ years

S102 DENILIQUIN 2-5 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years

S103 GRIFFITH 5-10 years 2-5 years 2-5 years 2-5 years

S104 GUNDAGAI 5-10 years 2-5 years 2-5 years 5-10 years

S105 HAY Up to 2 years 2-5 years 2-5 years

S106 HOLBROOK 2-5 years

S107 JERILDERIE Up to 2 years Up to 2 years 10+ years

S108 JUNEE 2-5 years Up to 2 years 2-5 years 2-5 years

S109 LEETON Up to 2 years 2-5 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years

S111 LOCKHART 10+ years 2-5 years 10+ years

S112 MATHOURA/MURRAY

S113 COLEAMBALLY 10+ years 10+ years

S114 NARRANDERA 2-5 years Up to 2 years 2-5 years Up to 2 years

S115 TEMORA 2-5 years Up to 2 years 2-5 years Up to 2 years

S117 TUMBARUMBA 5-10 years Up to 2 years

S118 TUMUT 2-5 years 2-5 years Up to 2 years 2-5 years

S119 URANA

S120 WAGGA WAGGA 2-5 years 2-5 years 2-5 years 2-5 years

S121 BARHAM/WAKOOL

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Expected Waiting Time by Table (continued)S105 HAY

ALLOCATION ZONE 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed

S123 ADELONG Up to 2 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years 10+ years

S126 DARLINGTON POINT Up to 2 years

S128 FINLEY Up to 2 years Up to 2 years

S129 GANMAIN

S130 HENTY

S132 MOAMA 2-5 years 2-5 years

S133 MOULAMEIN

S134 MULWALA

S135 THE ROCK 10+ years

S136 TARCUTTA Up to 2 years 2-5 years

S137 TOCUMWAL 2-5 years 5-10 years

S140 YENDA Up to 2 years

The Gap Historically this region has been more affordable for rental and purchase (with the

exception of a few LGAs such as Murray, Wagga Wagga and Albury) than much of the Rest of NSW.

That might lead to the assumption that housing affordability is not really an issue in Riverina Murray. Yet low income households predominate and are increasing in the larger LGAs of Albury and Wagga Wagga.

Therefore demand for affordable housing, particularly affordable rental housing is increasing across the region. This is demonstrated in the graph below, which shows the change in the number of low income renters between 2006 and 2016 in each LGA in the region.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

In almost all LGAs there has been an increase in the number of low income households, though some like Griffith, Murrumbidgee and Snowy Valleys are the exception and show a slight decrease since 2011.

While demand is increasing, the stock of affordable rental housing is declining. The graph below compares the change in the number of low income renters between 2011 and 2016 with the change in the number of affordable rental dwellings between 2010 and 2017. The graph demonstrates the decline in affordable rental at the same time that low income renters are increasing across the region.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Vacancy rates in Albury, Murrumbidgee and the Riverina region published by the Real Estate Institute in September 2019 indicate a continuing undersupply of private rental accommodation. At that time, Albury had a vacancy rate of 1.0%, while Murrumbidgee and Riverina both had a vacancy rate of 1.2% - all well below the demand supply balance of 3.0%.

In the LGAs with the largest regional centres, Albury and Wagga Wagga, there are also low proportions of affordable rental and purchase for very low and low income households, high proportions of very low and low income earners and CRA recipients in housing stress, and along with Murray, relatively high median rents and median sales price. This further indicates a need for an increase in the supply of affordable housing, and again the data demonstrates that there has been a decline in supply. The demand for affordable rental housing from students in Wagga Wagga is clearly impacting the housing market there. There is a need for additional appropriate housing to meet this need.

Further, there are declining numbers of long term residents of caravan/ residential parks, with a 23% drop between 2006 and 2011- although this stabilised between 2011 and 2016 with a small increase. The loss of this stock, which represents one of the few remaining affordable housing options for lower income households, reduces housing choice.

There is little diversity in housing type and bedroom mix across the region, with a poor match between number of bedrooms and household type. The population of the region is ageing and the proportion of lone person households is increasing. Housing suitable for older residents and single person households is required to meet existing and future needs. Housing suitable for single parent Aboriginal households is also required.

In common with other parts of NSW, the dwelling stock in Riverina Murray was largely built at a time when couple family households were the dominant household type - mainly in the form of 3 bedroom dwellings. The proportion of lone person and couple households has increased significantly and these two household types combined comprise the majority of households across the region. Although 64% of households are lone, single parent or couple without children, 77% of homes have 3 or more bedrooms and only 20% of accommodation has 1 (including studios/bedsits) to 2 bedrooms. DPIE population projections forecast stable or increasing proportions of lone person households in a majority of LGAs to 2036, more so than any other household type.

Much of the existing population is aged over 65 (varying by LGA from 15% to 29% of the total population), with significant proportions of seniors and frail aged. The DPIE are forecasting strong growth in residents aged over 65 across the region to 2036. Frail aged residents are less able to deal with maintenance of a large house and garden. Significant and increasing proportions of seniors and frail aged will impact on the housing needs of the region and require appropriate housing responses.

The increasing predominance of single person households and older age groups suggests increasing demand for studio, one and two bedroom dwellings.

The graph below compares the number of single parent, lone person and couple only households with the number of studio, one and two bedroom dwellings. It clearly demonstrates the significant mismatch between household type and bedroom number.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

The number of smaller households way exceeds the number of dwellings of appropriate size.

The evidence shows that there is a poor and worsening match between household type, household need and bedroom numbers. There is little housing choice for example for frail aged wishing to stay in their communities with their social and support networks, yet unable to manage looking after a large family home and garden and would prefer to downsize.

Proactive measures are required to increase the number of one and two bedroom dwellings suitable for single and couple only households, including Aboriginal single parent households. This would provide greater flexibility in the dwelling stock to meet the range of housing needs in the local community, including for older age groups. This can be difficult to achieve where population growth is not occurring or where it is difficult to attract new residential investment.

However, secondary dwellings can be readily installed in the backyard of existing homes relatively affordably and suit larger residential sites closer to centres providing a range of services and facilities. This also has the potential of assisting in affordability.

Secondary dwellings in particular could suit older residents or people with a disability – although they would also be suitable for a range of age groups. They enable residents to stay in familiar surroundings but in a more manageable sized home, with support close by.

New generation boarding houses (which are essentially studio dwellings with some communal facilities) can suit students and single workers. The university in Wagga Wagga and in Albury is clearly impacting on the demand for and availability of affordable rental accommodation. New generation boarding houses would provide more affordable rental housing suitable for students. There is also potential for this accommodation type to meet some of the fluctuating additional housing demand from seasonal workers.

A 2019 AHURI study Mortgage stress and precarious home ownership: implications for older Australians has shown that between 1987 and 2015, the real mortgage debt of those aged 55+ increased by 600% while house prices

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

tripled and income growth lagged even further behind, doubling over the same period. The study points to later attainment of outright ownership at lower incomes.

The same study observes that in 2031 over 200,000 older Australians will be living in private rental housing and in need of assistance with one or more activities. The study notes that insecurity of tenure and lack of control over internal amenities could prevent a growing number of older tenants from meeting these needs. It also suggests the need to retrofit homes. Mobility issues will generate a growing need for housing designs and planning systems that support retrofits that aid mobility in existing homes, as well as incorporate such amenities into new builds.

Who needs affordable housing A wide range of people need affordable housing. Single income earners who fall

into the low income category include aged care and disability workers, retail sales assistants, production workers, receptionists and early career child care workers. People working in accommodation and food services comprise around 8% of the workforce nationally and are amongst the lowest paid workers.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing employs 11.5% of the workforce in the Riverina Murray. The prolonged drought has had an impact on rural incomes and ability to afford housing.

The region also has 12.6% of the workforce employed in health care and social assistance. A 2017 survey of NSW Nurses and Midwives Association (NSWMA) members showed that thirty six per cent of respondents moved home or changed jobs in the previous 12 months because of housing affordability issues

Single income households in particular are less able to compete in the housing market.

Increasing numbers of older single women are homeless or at risk of homelessness due to the lack of available affordable rental housing.

Partnering or collaborating with community housing providers is one effective way to meet some of the local need for appropriate affordable housing. Community housing providers are not for profit owners, managers and developers of affordable rental housing for lower income households and residents with specific housing needs. They work with partners, investors and government to provide housing and deliver support for tenants. For more information about community housing providers, see the NSW Community Housing Industry Association website.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Additional DataMore detailed housing data and tables used in this Snapshot are available from the Local Government Housing Kit Database on the Housing NSW website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Centre+For+Affordable+Housing/NSW+Local+Government+Housing+Kit/Local+Government+Housing+Kit+Database/

More information on Expected Waiting Times for Public Housing is available on the Housing NSW website by region at:

http://www.housingpathways.nsw.gov.au/How+to+Apply/Expected+Waiting+Times/

www.facs.nsw.gov.au