new knowledge on climate change:new knowledge on …...oct 01, 2007 · adapting to climate change...

New Knowledge on Climate Change:New Knowledge on Climate Change: Global Efforts for Meeting The Challenge

Dr R K PachauriDr R K PachauriChairman, IPCCDi t G l TERIDirector-General, TERI

GCEP Research Symposium St f d 1st O t b 2007Stanford, 1st October 2007

Contents

“Climate change is unequivocal”

Human contribution to climate change

Projections and impacts

Urgent need for mitigationUrgent need for mitigation

Mitigation costs and potential

Key technologies and measures

Adapting to climate change in Asia

Commitments in China and India


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Towards a new development path


Palaeoclimatic perspective

Warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the i 1 300previous 1,300 years

L t ti th l i i ifi tl thLast time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 m of sea level risep

3IPCC

“Climate change is unequivocal”Changes in temperature, sea level and

northern hemisphere snow cover

Gl b l t tGlobal average temperature

Global average sea level

Northern hemisphere snow cover

4IPCC

“Climate change is unequivocal”C l ti b l

During the 20th century,

Cumulative balance of glacier mass in some regions

During the 20th century, glaciers and ice caps have experienced widespread mass losses

New data confirm that lossesNew data confirm that losses from the ice sheets have contributed to sea level riseover 1993 to 2003over 1993 to 2003

5IPCC


Significant changes in precipitations

Increases

6

Decreases


Other observed impacts of climate change

More intense, longer droughts

Widespread change in extreme temperature

Increasing intense cyclone activity

Poleward and upward shifts in ranges in plant and animal species

7IPCC

Human contribution to climate changeGlobal and continental temperature change

There is nowThere is now stronger evidence of human influenceon climateon climate

8IPCC

Models using only natural forcingModels using both natural and anthropogenic forcing

Observations

Human contribution to climate changeCh i CO f i d d d t

Global atmospheric

Changes in CO2 from ice core and modern data

Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases increased markedly as

-2

increased markedly as result of human activities

In 2005 concentration of CO2 exceeded by far the

l hnatural range over the last 650,000 years

9

10000 5000 0Time (before 2005)

IPCC

Projections and impactsM lti d l d dMulti-model averages and assessed ranges

for surface warming

Continued emissions would lead to further warming of g1.8ºC to 4ºC over the 21st century, depending on different p gscenarios

Broadly consistentBroadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR

10IPCC


Impacts on natural ecosystems

Climate change will reduce biodiversity and perturb functioning of most ecosystems, and compromise the services they currently provideservices they currently provide

20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinctionº

Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable:

if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5ºC

y g yCoral reefs, marine shell organismsTundra, boreal forests, mountain and

11IPCC

Mediterranean regions


Poor communities vulnerability

Poor communities are especially vulnerable to p yclimate change

They tend to have more limited adaptiveThey tend to have more limited adaptive capacities, and are more dependent on climate-sensitive resources such as local water and food supplies

12IPCC


Expected impacts

Very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent

Likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation Less confidence in decrease of total number

Extra-tropical storm tracks projected to move poleward

precipitation. Less confidence in decrease of total number

with consequent changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns

13IPCC


Effects on poor regions

Malnutrition further exacerbated by reduced length of growing season in Sahelian region of Africa. In some countries yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reducedcountries, yields from rain fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020

75 to 250 million people exposed to increased water stress

Food insecurity and loss of livelihood further

p p pin 2020 in Africa

Food insecurity and loss of livelihood further exacerbated by loss of cultivated land and nursery areas for fisheries by inundation and coastal erosion in low-lying areas f t i l A i

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of tropical Asia

IPCC


Coastal settlements most at risk

15IPCC

Urgent need for mitigation

Adaptation is necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions

However:

Adaptation alone cannot cope with all the projected impactsAdaptation alone cannot cope with all the projected impacts of climate change

The costs of adaptation and impacts will increase as global temperatures increasetemperatures increase

Need for a mix of strategiesNeed for a mix of strategies including adaptation,

technological development, research

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and mitigation of GHG emissions

IPCC

Urgent need for mitigationC f

Stabilizationlevel

Global mean temp. increase

Year CO2 needs to

Year CO2emissions Reduction in 2050

CO emissions

Characteristics of stabilization scenarios

level (ppm CO2-eq)

temp. increase at equilibrium

(ºC)

needs to peak back at 2000

level

CO2 emissions compared to 2000

445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 - 2015 2000- 2030 -85 to -50

490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 - 2020 2000- 2040 -60 to -30

535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 - 2030 2020- 2060 -30 to +5

590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 - 2060 2050- 2100 +10 to +60

710 – 855 4.0 – 4.9 2050 - 2080 +25 to +85

855 – 1130 4.9 – 6.1 2060 - 2090 +90 to +140

Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower

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stabilization levels

IPCC


Estimated global macro-economic costs in 2030 for least-cost trajectories towards different long-term stabilization levels

Reduction of average annual

GDP growth rates

Range of GDP reduction

(%)

MedianGDP

reduction

Trajectories towards

stabilization

< 0.06-0.6 – 1.20.2590-710

(percentage points)(%)levels (ppm CO2-eq)

< 0.12< 3Not available445-535

<0.10.2 – 2.50.6535-590

0.12 3Not available445 535

Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain

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g gto 3% decrease of GDP in 2030

IPCC


GDP

Illustration of costs numbers

GDPGDP without mitigation 80%

77%

GDP with stringent

iti ti

TimeCurrent

mitigation

~1 Year

19

Current ~1 Year2030

IPCC


Cumulative emissions reductions for alternative mitigation measures

Energy conservation & efficiency

Fossil fuel switch

Renewables

Nuclear

CCS

Forest sinks

Cumulative emission reduction Cumulative emission reduction

Non-CO2

20IPCC

GtCO2-eq GtCO2-eq

Key technologies and measuresKey mitigation technologies currently commercially available

Efficiency; fuel switching; renewable (hydropowerEnergy Supply

Efficiency; fuel switching; renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; nuclear power; early applications of CO2 capture and storage

T t

More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public

li lki l dTransport transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning

Effi i t li hti ffi i t li d i diti

Buildings

Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and aircodition; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances

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pp

IPCC

Key technologies and measuresAppropriate incentives for

development of technologies

Effective carbon price signal to create incentives to invest in low-GHG

d t t h l i dproducts, technologies and processes

Appropriate energy infrastructurein estment decisions hich ha e

Ch i lif t l d b h i

investment decisions, which have long term effects on emissions

Changes in lifestyle and behaviorpatterns, especially in building and transport

22IPCC


Key vulnerabilities

Agriculture and food supply

Decrease in crop yields up to 30% in Central andSouth Asia by 2050Uncertainties as to how climate change will impactUncertainties as to how climate change will impactfood supply and demandRisk of hunger projected to remain very high ing j y gdeveloping countries

23IPCC


Key vulnerabilities

Water managementWater management

Glacier melt projected to increase flooding, rock l h d ff i hi havalanches and to affect water resources within the next

two to three decades

Salinity of groundwater especially along the coast due toSalinity of groundwater especially along the coast, due to increases in sea level and over-exploitation

Decrease of freshwater availability in Central, South,Decrease of freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia affecting more than a billion people by 2050

24IPCC


Human health

Key vulnerabilities

Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease inEast, South and Southeast Asia primarily associated withfloods and droughtsgExacerbation of abundance / toxicity of cholera in South Asiadue to increases in coastal water temperature

Coastal areasCoastal erosion and inundation of coastal lowland as sea levelcontinues to rise flooding the residence of millions of people livingcontinues to rise, flooding the residence of millions of people livingin the low lying areas of South, South-East and East AsiaSignificant losses of coastal ecosystems, affecting the aquacultureindustry particularly in heavily-populated megadeltas

25IPCC

industry, particularly in heavily-populated megadeltas


Adaptation strategies

Enhancing social capital and reducing the vulnerability of developing countries

I i i l l d ti d t h i l killIncreasing income levels, education and technical skillsImproving public food distributionImproving disaster preparedness and management, and health p g p p gcare systems Promoting good governance including responsible policy and decision making and communities empowerment g pMainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sectors

26IPCC



Increasing agriculture adaptive capacity

Modifying farming practices (e g reasonable rotationalModifying farming practices (e.g. reasonable rotational grazing to ensure the sustainability of grassland resources)Improving crops and livestock through breeding (e g breeding of new rice varieties to minimise the risk of(e.g. breeding of new rice varieties to minimise the risk of serious productivity losses) Investing in new technologies and infrastructure (e g improvement of irrigation systems)(e.g. improvement of irrigation systems) Information, education and communication programmes to enhance the level of awareness and understanding of the vulnerable groups

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vulnerable groups

IPCC



Preventing water scarcity

Conversion of cropland to forest (grassland)Restoration and re-establishment of vegetationImpro ement of the tree and herb arietiesImprovement of the tree and herb varietiesSelection and cultivation of new drought-resistant varieties Water saving schemes for irrigation

28IPCC

Commitments in India and ChinaMain measures in India

Development of renewable energiesR t R&D t h l d l t dResource assessment, R&D, technology development and

demonstration

Development of nuclear powerDevelopment of nuclear powerObjective of 50-60,000 MW capacity by 2030

Expert Committee on Impacts of Climate ChangeExpert Committee on Impacts of Climate ChangeChaired by Principal Scientific Adviser to the Government of IndiaRole: study the impacts in India and identify the measures to

address vulnerabilityy

Prime Minister’s Council on Climate ChangeRole: coordinate national action for assessment, adaptation and

29IPCC

mitigation of climate change

Commitments in India and ChinaChina Climate Change Plan: Main measures

MitigationDevelopment of nuclear powerDevelopment of nuclear powerDevelopment of coal-bed methane and coal-mine methaneDevelopment of renewable energiesEnergy efficiency improvement and energy conservationEnergy efficiency improvement and energy conservation

AdaptationImprovement of agricultural infrastructures and adjustment ofImprovement of agricultural infrastructures and adjustment of agricultural structure and cropping systemsProtection of existing forest resources and other natural ecosystemsEnhancement of water resources managementgAdaptation strategies to address sea level rise

R&D enhancing

30IPCC

Public awareness raising and management improvement

Commitments in India and China

China Climate Change Plan: Objectives for 2010

Control GHG emissions20% reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP 10% of renewable energy in primary energy supply10% of renewable energy in primary energy supply20% increase of forest coverage rate 50 million tons increase of carbon sink

Enhance capacity of adaptation to climate change24 million hectares increase of improved grassland 90% of typical forest ecosystems and national key wildlife protected

31IPCC

Towards a new development pathEcological footprint and bio-capacity by region, 2003

10

North America

E EU

Latin America and the Caribbean

10

8

Europe EU

Europe Non-EU

Middle East and C t l A i

Asia-Pacific

Africa6

Central Asia4

2

326 454 349 270 535 3489 847 0

32Source: WWF, Living Planet Report 2006

Population (millions)


For much of the last century, the dominant path to industrialization was characterized by high concurrent GHG emissionsemissions

Committing to alternative development paths can result in very different future GHG emissionsy

This will require major changes in areas other than climate change:climate change:

Economic structure TechnologyGeographical distribution of activitiesGeographical distribution of activitiesConsumption patternsUrban design and transport infrastructureDemography

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DemographyInstitutional arrangements and trade patterns

IPCC

Towards a new development pathCO

15Rest of non-OECD

Energy-Related CO2 emissions by Region (WEO Reference Scenario)

12

f CO 2

China

Rest of non-OECD

Rest of OECD

6

9

gaton

nes

of

United States

Rest of OECD

0

3

Gig

Chi t k th US th ld’ bi t itt i 2007

01990 2000 2010 2020 2030

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China overtook the US as the world’s biggest emitter in 2007, though its per capita emissions reach just 60% of those of the OECD in 2030

Source: WEO 2006


D d f bi l i l h ll A i

Asia’s growing pressure on natural resources

Demands for biological resources have grown all over Asia in recent years

R t f b th t t l f t l d f t d d tiRates of both total forest loss and forest degradation are higher in Asia than anywhere else in the world

Population is predicted to grow to more than 5 billion by 2050

Economic growth is estimated to increase 4 2 fold of theEconomic growth is estimated to increase 4.2-fold of the current gross domestic product by 2050

35IPCC

People at risk of coastal flooding in the 2080s (p a)


35

40

People at risk of coastal flooding in the 2080s (p.a)

20

25

30

35

of p

eopl

e

5

10

15

20

Mill

ions

o

0

5

A1 A2 B2 B1SRES futures

Without climate change With climate change

Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change

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y p y gbut also on development pathway

IPCC


"We must reconcile the need for development pwith the need for environmental protection"

"China wants to blaze a new path to industrialization"

Ma Kai, Chairman of China'sMa Kai, Chairman of China s National Development and Reform Commission

37IPCC

Be the change you want to see in the worldGandhi was once asked if he expected India to attain the same standard of living as Britain. He replied:

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of living as Britain. He replied:It took Britain half the resources of the planet to achieve this prosperity. How many planets will a country like India require!

new knowledge on climate change:new knowledge on …...oct 01, 2007 · adapting to climate change...

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