newbase 599 special 07 may 2015

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 07 May 2015 - Issue No. 599 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Qatar 'well positioned' to meet rising energy demand in Asia: Attiyah Gulf Times + NewBase With long-term energy demand in Asia set to rise, Qatar is “well positioned” to supply existing and new customers in the region going forward, said HE the former Deputy Premier, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah. “Asia and Qatar have long enjoyed a progressive and mutually beneficial relationship, and this isn’t going to change. That said, Qatar is always on the lookout for new opportunities, which it will evaluate if and when they come up. Qatar certainly has the scope and flexibility to expand its footprint to other parts of the world if it makes economic sense,” al-Attiyah said told Gulf Intelligence. “Qatar will continue to employ a flexible marketing position for its customers, but as a supplier will also keep in mind its limited gas reserves and the sales price will be set accordingly,” al-Attiyah said on the sidelines of the 3rd Annual Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah Energy Awards. On the policies Qatar’s energy industry would pursue to remain competitive in the current, changing market environment, al-Attiyah said, “Qatar is committed to its National Vision 2030, which aims to create a balance between an oil-based and a knowledge-based economy, and therefore seeks to build a sustainable economy for future generations.” Qatar’s energy sector will play a critical role in supporting the National Vision by ensuring the responsible and sustainable exploitation of the country’s hydrocarbon resources, and diversifying into other forms of energy such as renewables. “As a responsible citizen of the world, this is something we are fully committed to. At the same time, we need to see the oil and gas sector step up its contributions in advanced technological innovations and the development of human resources in Qatar,” al-Attiyah noted. In the current scenario, he said, it was important that GCC countries acted in a way that kept their own interests and those of the wider region in mind. “To this end, it will be important to diversify the region away from its dependence on hydrocarbons. We must seek to boost our individual national economies and expand our industrial

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Page 1: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1

NewBase 07 May 2015 - Issue No. 599 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

Qatar 'well positioned' to meet rising energy demand in Asia: Attiyah

Gulf Times + NewBase

With long-term energy demand in Asia set to rise, Qatar is “well positioned” to supply existing and new customers in the region going forward, said HE the former Deputy Premier, Abdullah bin

Hamad al-Attiyah.

“Asia and Qatar have long enjoyed a progressive and mutually beneficial relationship, and this isn’t going to change. That said, Qatar is always on the lookout for new opportunities, which it will evaluate if and when they come up. Qatar certainly has the scope and flexibility to expand its footprint to other parts of the world if it makes economic sense,” al-Attiyah said told Gulf Intelligence.

“Qatar will continue to employ a flexible marketing position for its customers, but as a supplier will also keep in mind its limited gas reserves and the sales price will be set accordingly,” al-Attiyah said on the sidelines of the 3rd Annual Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah Energy Awards.

On the policies Qatar’s energy industry would pursue to remain competitive in the current, changing market environment, al-Attiyah said, “Qatar is committed to its National Vision 2030, which aims to create a balance between an oil-based and a knowledge-based economy, and therefore seeks to build a sustainable economy for future generations.”

Qatar’s energy sector will play a critical role in supporting the National Vision by ensuring the responsible and sustainable exploitation of the country’s hydrocarbon resources, and diversifying into other forms of energy such as renewables.

“As a responsible citizen of the world, this is something we are fully committed to. At the same time, we need to see the oil and gas sector step up its contributions in advanced technological innovations and the development of human resources in Qatar,” al-Attiyah noted.

In the current scenario, he said, it was important that GCC countries acted in a way that kept their own interests and those of the wider region in mind.

“To this end, it will be important to diversify the region away from its dependence on hydrocarbons. We must seek to boost our individual national economies and expand our industrial

Page 2: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2

bases to bring economic stability and sustainability to the region by fostering innovation and R&D. And, instead of acting as supplier of conventionally-produced materials, we should aim to add value across the whole value chain of industries."

On Opec, al-Attiyah said the organisation remained a “force for stability” in world oil markets and intended to play an effective and positive role serving its member countries as well as producing countries, the oil industry and the global economy at large.

In the new energy era of greater competition and new sources of oil being made available, Opec’s relevance will be different, however. Opec will continue to seek to balance world oil markets and to lead a fruitful dialogue between producers and consumers.

But, at the same time, al-Attiyah said the oil producer group has learned from history, in particular in the 1980s, when it sought to provide price support by cutting production. Opec instead lost market share and still faced low prices.

On the impact (on Opec) of likely lifting of sanctions on Iran, al-Attiyah said, "Since the beginning of Opec, there have always been some differences in opinion, but that is understandable, natural and—more importantly—healthy and necessary.

“When Iraq came back online and production reached 3.6mn bpd, which was said to be its historical level, everyone claimed that the oil price would go down and there would be discontent in Opec. That did not happen, Iraq consumed its own oil, and the market remained stable for everybody.

“As for Iran, first of all, it won’t be able to boost production immediately and when it does, growing energy demand in Asia and other developing nations is expected to absorb the additional barrels.”

Page 3: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3

Qatar Petroleum invites bids for key oilfield Reuters + NewBase

Qatar Petroleum has invited international oil companies to compete to operate and develop its Al-Shaheen oilfield from mid-2017, a blow to current operator Maersk Oil which had hoped to extend its production sharing agreement.

QP said on Wednesday that Maersk Oil, the oil and gas unit of giant conglomerate A.P. Moller - Maersk, was invited to bid after their 25-year agreement expires in 2017. But the invitation to other companies signals that negotiations behind closed doors about renewing the current contract have not succeeded. "We have known that we would be challenged on terms and conditions in connection with the 2017 extension and have been awaiting more information on how Qatar Petroleum wished to go about such a process," Maersk Oil chief executive Jakob Thomasen said in a statement. "We look forward to this opportunity to continue our partnership with Qatar Petroleum, based on our long-term commitment and detailed technical knowledge." The oilfield, 80km off Qatar's coast, currently produces around 300,000 barrels per day, Qatar Petroleum said. It did not specify a deadline for submitting bids or

say when the contract would be awarded. Maersk views its oil unit as one of four key businesses alongside Maersk Line, the world's largest container shipping company. Maersk Oil has a target of producing 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day by 2020 from around 250,000 boed in 2014. The company declined to comment any further, including whether the targets were in jeopardy. Maersk's share price fell 1.8 percent from the announcement at about 1230 GMT to 13,250 crowns from 13,500 crowns. Maersk chief executive Nils Andersen said in September the company expected an extension, albeit on different terms. "Whether it will be better or worse we don't know, but it could easily be a win-win," he told Danish daily Berlingske.

Page 4: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4

Algeria, EU to Cooperate in the Field of Natural Gas APS + NewBase

The EU and Algeria on Tuesday launched a political dialogue on energy matters, the EU said in a press statement.

During a meeting in Algiers, Miguel Arias Cañete, European Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy, and Yousef Yousfi, Minister for Energy and Mines of Algeria, agreed to cooperate on natural gas, renewable energy, energy efficiency, energy market integration and infrastructure development. The cooperation follows the establishment of a strategic energy partnership in 2013. "Algeria is a partner of crucial importance to the EU. The launch of an energy dialogue in Algiers today will contribute to a reinforcement of our bilateral cooperation in the new context of energy security," Arias Cañete said.

As per the agreement, two expert group – one on natural gas and the other on electricity, renewables and

energy efficiency - will be created. In addition, a business forum will be set-up with the first meeting scheduled for 2016 in Algiers.

Algeria is third biggest supplier of gas to the EU, and the EU is the biggest importer of Algerian gas. However, due to a lack of new investment, gas production in the country is declining and large reserves of gas remain unexploited.

Enhanced political links on energy could boost investments in Algerian gas with the knock-on effect of improving Europe's energy security, the EU said.

Meanwhile, the EU has agreed to share its renewable energy and energy efficiency expertise in support of Algeria’s goal to reach 22 Gigawatts of renewable power by 2030 and a 9% reduction in energy consumption.

Page 5: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5

There’s One Part of the World Where the Oil

Industry Is Booming by Javier BlasAnthony Dipaola

As the oil industry tightens its belt after the worst price slump in a generation, the state-owned giants of the Middle East are taking the opposite tack.

Saudi Arabian Oil Co., Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and Kuwait Petroleum Corp. are using a record number of drilling rigs and boosting production, a contrast to international companies from Exxon Mobil Corp. to Royal Dutch Shell Plc, which are shelving projects and slashing costs.

“While oil companies around the world are cutting capital and downsizing their investment programs, Saudi Aramco continues to take a long-term view,” Chairman Khalid Al-Falih said during a March trip to China.

It’s a strategy that may allow the three state-owned companies to boost their 20 percent market share before prices rebound. Aramco’s board, after meeting for an annual review of its long-term plans last week, decided the best response to the slump was “to stay the course.” A few days earlier, its Abu Dhabi counterpart, known as Adnoc, said it would invest $25 billion over five years to develop some of its biggest offshore fields.

In speeches and interviews, current and former oil executives and analysts said the state-owned producers are using the downturn to squeeze their suppliers for discounts. At the same time, they are keeping strategic investments largely intact despite crude falling by about 40 percent in the past year.

Brent crude snapped two days of gains, slipping as much as 65 cents, or 1 percent, to $67.12 a barrel. The global benchmark traded at $67.33 a barrel at 8:53 a.m. Dubai time.

Page 6: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6

Investment Pressures

“We never have pressure to cut investment the same way as international oil companies do,” said Nader Sultan, an oil consultant who ran Kuwait Petroleum Corp. from 1993 to 2004.

Sadad al-Husseini, a Dhahran-based consultant and former head of exploration at Aramco, agrees, saying that Saudi Arabia is only shelving smaller projects such as exploratory drilling in the Red Sea.

“These are marginal projects,” he said. “They’re not the core oil, and gas projects or refineries. These are the big ticket items that are going ahead.”

The number of rigs used by oil drillers in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait climbed by a third to the most in at least 20 years in March from a year ago, according to oil service group Baker Hughes Inc. Over the same period, the number of rigs in the U.S. dropped more than 50 percent.

James Crandell, an analyst at Cowen & Co. who has tracked oil companies’ investment budgets for the last 35 years, said in a report that Aramco, Adnoc and KPC will increase their investment in oil exploration and production by 4.5 percent to $38.1 billion this year from 2014. Global oil investment will drop 17 percent over that period.

Spending Increase

Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E and Kuwait are producing oil at the highest rate in at least 30 years. To sustain that level, companies need to drill new wells. Moreover, if output growth outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries comes to a halt next year, as many analysts anticipate because of spending cuts, the trio would need to invest now to meet demand in 2016. If the strategy is successful, Riyadh and its allies would end up taking market share from rivals.

For oil-services companies, the Middle East is a rare bright spot as they battle big spending cuts elsewhere. Even so, some executives caution that the state-owned trio are asking for large discounts.

Schlumberger Ltd., the world’s largest oil-services group, expects the Middle East to be the only region where spending will increase this year. The company anticipates “growth in our key markets in the Middle East as the core OPEC producers continue to pursue market share,” CEO Paal Kibsgaard told investors in April.

Oil Services

Tim Weller, chief financial officer at oil services group Petrofac Ltd., agrees.

“We are seeing a global decrease in investment to the tune of 20 percent or higher,” he said in an interview. “In the Middle East, however, we are seeing national oil companies maintaining strategic spending and therefore flat to modest growth in investment across the region.”

Not being accountable to shareholders in the way Big Oil is and receiving state backing means the Middle East producers “have more latitude to make investments that could be seen as going against the short-term price environment,” said Antoine Halff, head of oil industry and markets at the International Energy Agency.

Page 7: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7

Saudi Arabia led OPEC into a policy U-turn in November, opting to defend market share instead of supporting prices as it did in the past. Since then, Riyadh has boosted oil production to 10.3 million barrels a day.

Production Outlook

The kingdom, with production capacity of 12.5 million barrels a day, is spending heavily on new refining capacity. The U.A.E is producing a record 2.9 million barrels a day and Abu Dhabi is going ahead with plans to boost its capacity to 3.5 million barrels by the end of 2017, said Abdullah Nasser Al Suwaidi, director general of state-owned Adnoc.

Kuwait is pumping at a 42-year high of 2.8 million barrels a day and plans to invest to bring its capacity to 4 million by 2020. Lower crude prices won’t affect that plan, Kuwait Oil CEO Hashem Hashem said earlier this year.

Page 8: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8

UAE: Ensco scores two rig contracts in Middle East

Ensco plc has entered into a three-year contract with NDC for a new premium jackup, ENSCO 110. This new build rig is scheduled to begin operations later this month offshore United Arab Emirates at a rate of approximately $114,000 per day.

NDC has also contracted ENSCO 104 for a three-year term at a day rate of $114,000. The rig is mobilizing to the Middle East from the Asia Pacific region and is scheduled to begin its new contract in late-June 2015.

Chief Executive Officer Carl Trowell commented, “We are pleased to extend our relationship with NDC. The Middle East is the largest market for premium jackups, and we continue to invest in new rig technology for the benefit of customers. In addition to ENSCO 110, two more high-specification jackups, ENSCO 140 and ENSCO 141, are scheduled for delivery in 2016 from Lamprell’s shipyard in the United Arab Emirates.”

ENSCO 110 is based on the Keppel FELS B Class Bigfoot design, which is capable of working at water depths up to 400 feet with a maximum drilling depth of 30,000 feet. The rig has a nominal variable deck load of 7,500 kips and a cantilever load of 2,500 kips. It includes a 1.5 million-pound derrick, TDS-8 top drive and 4-ram 15,000-psi BOP. Ensco customized the rig to add dual drilling fluid capability and upgraded the living quarters to accommodate 150 persons on board.

ENSCO 104 is based on the KFELS Class B design. The rig operates in water depths up to 400 feet with a maximum drilling depth of 30,000 feet. The rig has a variable deck load of 8,025 kips and a cantilever load of 1,675 kips. It includes a 1.5 million-pound derrick, TDS-8 top drive and 4-ram 10,000-psi BOP.

Page 9: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9

Saudi Arabia’s oil output expected to remain high Saudi gazette + News agencies + NewBase Analysts of the US JP Morgan bank expect Saudi Arabian oil output to increase to 10.2 million barrels per day in 2015, up 0.5 million barrels per day year over year. “The rapid increase in Saudi Arabian production in recent months has prompted a fair degree of skepticism over its sustainability and the potential for higher volumes to weigh on prices,” analysts said in a report.

Analysts mentioned with the reference to Saudi Arabia’s official estimate, that the country’s crude output in March stood at 10.3 million barrels per day, up 0.7 million barrels per day mom (month-over-month). This represents the highest monthly output in at least 20 years. Analysts see three factors contributing to the rise in Saudi crude output. First, analysts estimate that country’s exports could average 7.3 to 7.4 million barrels per day this year, on the back of surging Asian refinery demand. Second, with the commissioning of the second JV Export refinery crude runs are expected to average 2.3 million barrels per day, up 0.3 million yoy (year-over-year).“Higher runs will likely contribute higher fuel oil output on the margin, as the new refinery’s upgrading units are slowly brought to full operating rates later in the year,” analysts said. Third, analysts see increased availability of fuel oil from the refineries as meeting much of the call for higher power demand within Saudi Arabia this year. JP Morgan analysts see potential for Saudi crude exports to average 7.4 million barrels per day in 2015, a substantial pick up from the low point of 6.7 million barrels per day in August 2014. Saudi Arabian crude exports have decreased significantly in the US, according to the analysts.

Page 10: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10

They expect the exports to average near 800,000 barrels per day in the coming months. Exports to Asia may be close to current strong levels, analysts believe. OPEC oil supply reached 30.63 million barrels per day in March, which was the highest level since October. Saudi Arabia’s oil production amounted to 10.01 million barrels per day last month compared to 9.663 million barrels per day in February, according to OPEC’s latest oil market report. Oil demand in Asia is strong and Saudi Arabia is ready to supply any more crude needed, Reuters reported citing the country’s oil minister Ali Al-Naimi. The minister also said that Saudi Arabian oil output would probably remain about 10 million barrels per day. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said on Tuesday he was optimistic about the future of the kingdom’s oil and gas sector under the new leadership. “I would like to talk about the future, and I will be honest, I am optimistic about the future of oil and gas and manufacturing in the kingdom under the leadership of King Salman, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef and Deputy Crown Prince and head of the Supreme Economic and Development Council Mohammed bin Salman,” Naimi said. “I see a bright future for education, training, development and manufacturing in the kingdom. And for transforming the kingdom into a leading country in... industries related to oil, gas, petrochemicals and mining.”

Page 11: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11

Saudi Electricity Says Looking For Investments To Diversify Reuters + NewBase

Saudi Electricity Co (SEC) , the Gulf’s largest utility firm, is looking for investment opportunities to offset financial pressures on its core electricity business, its chief executive said. “Because we are squeezed and are in desperate need of financial resources…we would like to diversify our

portfolio through investment opportunities, to make a good rate of return that can make the company stronger,” Ziyad al-Shiha told Reuters. He added that the company’s board had asked management “to work very hard to explore the options available… to make the company more agile.” The state-run firm is in a difficult position: it is tasked with providing power to a rapidly growing population, but government policy is to keep electricity prices for consumers and industry very low, squeezing SEC’s profits. Last month it said its net loss for the first

quarter of the year more than doubled, to 1.94 billion riyals ($517 million). Saleh al-Awaji, SEC’s chairman, said last month that Saudi Arabia should eventually consider raising its domestic power and water prices to limit growth of consumption and reduce the costs of providing additional supply. To meet power demand, which is growing at 6 to 8 percent annually, the company currently spends 40-60 billion riyals a year, Shiha said. Last year, industry sources said SEC had approached France’s EDF Energy about taking a minority stake in the French firm’s Hinkley Point C nuclear project in Britain. Shiha declined to comment on the issue or to discuss specific potential investments. Meanwhile, SEC is teaming up with oil giant Saudi Aramco to build the Fadhili power plant, which is linked to the development of a major gas plant. The project is to include the participation of the private sector, a way of spreading the financial burden. Since 2009, regulators have been working on plans to split SEC into several companies to increase competition. More than one power generating firm might be created, and they might be separated from power transmission and distribution. Raising electricity prices substantially could be politically sensitive in Saudi Arabia. But Shiha suggested that power tariffs would have to change to make splitting up SEC viable. “In the area of companies and restructuring, you have to tackle the tariff structure, the compensation and all of those things that the regulator is working on as we speak,” he said without specifying when the regulator might make a final decision. While authorities want companies to compete based on cost and quality of service to the grid, “the tariff system does not support it today,” he said.

Page 12: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12

India : LNG Imports to More Than Double to 24 Mt by 2020, Says Moody's Moody's Investors Service + NewBase

India’s LNG imports is expected to double to 24 million tonnes per annum by 2020 from 10.7 million tons in the financial year ended 31 March 2014, Moody's Investors Service said in a report Tuesday.

Moody’s sees the expected surge in imports to benefit country's leading LNG importer, Petronet LNG Limited and dominant gas distributor, GAIL (India) Limited the most, because of the increased usage of their gas infrastructure. "India's LNG imports should more than double to 24 million tonnes per annum by 2020 from 10.7 million tonnes in the financial year ended 31 March 2014, because of low and sustained LNG prices, rising industrial demand, and falling domestic gas production levels," said Abhishek Tyagi, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst for

the Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance Group.

"The stimulant effect on demand of lower LNG prices would be felt post 2017, because the fuel is mostly imported under long term contracts, which are generally linked to five-year average crude oil prices," says Vikas Halan a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer for the Corporate Finance Group.

Moody's report stated that the demand for LNG in India would be even greater if it were more widely used by the power generation sector, which currently absorbs only 10 percent of bulk imports because of the fuel's persistently high price relative to coal and domestic gas.

Page 13: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13

Oil Price Drop Special Coverage

Oil off 2015 highs as Opec ‘won’t cut output’ Reuters + NewBase Oil prices fell on Thursday after hitting 2015 highs in the previous session as an Opec delegate indicated the group would stick to its strategy of pursuing market share rather than cutting output and traders took profit from a multi-week rally.

Stronger-than-expected demand growth and a slowdown in crude supply has lifted oil prices around 50 per cent from a six-year low hit in January. Yet many traders and analysts say global crude markets remained well supplied. The rally in futures prices indicates a deep disconnect with the physical market, some traders said, with tens of millions of West African, Azeri and North Sea barrels struggling to find buyers. The first drawdown in US crude inventories since January as well as a weakening dollar helped to feed the rally in oil on Wednesday, before prices started dropping back. US crude stocks fell 3.9 million barrels last week, the first drop in four months, the Energy Information Administration said.

Page 14: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14

"While the latest draw and the recent slowdown in weekly builds in crude stocks have been seen as positive for the oil price, crude stocks remain exceedingly high," said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas. The draw was due in part to a large weekly drop in crude imports, Tchilinguirian also noted. "It is unlikely that a trend in crude stock declines will take hold just yet," he said. Brent crude futures were trading 46 cents lower at $67.31 per barrel at 0335 GMT. The benchmark rallied to a 2015 peak of $69.63 on Wednesday before closing below $68 a barrel. US crude were down 49 cents at $60.44 a barrel. The contract had rallied more than $2 to a high of $62.58 a barrel in the previous session on news of falling crude inventories, before settling near $61 a barrel. Comments by a senior Opec delegate overnight also indicate that core Gulf oil producers are not wavering in their strategy to focus on market share rather than cutting output alone, suggesting big policy changes are unlikely at the June meeting unless non-Opec producers change their stance. "Weaker sentiment was also driven by comments from Iran's oil minister, who indicated its output would increase to 3.8 million barrels per day within six months if sanctions were lifted," ANZ bank said in a note.

Page 15: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15

DNO dragged into loss by Yemen troubles and soft oil price The National + NewBase

The Norwegian oil and gas company DNO yesterday reported an operating loss for the first quarter of this year because of the suspension of operations in war-torn Yemen, lower sales in Iraq’s northern Kurdish region and weak oil prices.

The firm, in which RAK Petroleum has a 42.5 per cent stake, posted an operating loss of US$69 million due, in part, to a $27m write down in Yemen arising from the halt of production in Block 32 and Block 43 as the security

situation deteriorated.

In addition, lower local sales from the Kurdish region and weak oil prices led to

a drop in revenue to $26m in the first quarter. DNO suspended its operations in Yemen in March and relocated employees to Dubai.

It is not the only firm to halt operations in Yemen. Total of France, the largest company in Yemen, operating several fields and a liquefied natural gas terminal at Balhaf, said in March that it had evacuated all expatriate staff from Sanaa and Kharir, but was maintaining LNG production and exports via Balhaf.

Total had previously said that operations on its Block 10 in Yemen had been cut, with gas production maintained only for local power generation. A year ago today, DNO reported a first-quarter net profit of $24m on operating revenue of $113m.

It is also struggling to recover payments owed, particularly from the semiautonomous Kurdish Regional Government. The firm’s capital expenditure this year has been cut to an estimated $100m, out of which $35m was spent in the first quarter.

Gross production in the first quarter of this year from the Kurdish region, Yemen and Oman was 121,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), of which the company interest in the production was more than 72,000 boepd.

Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani, the chairman of DNO and the executive chairman of RAK Petroleum, said last week that while DNO has its “hands full” and has not been looking at potential acquisitions, it would naturally “be on the radar” of any of the oil majors on the hunt.

Page 16: NewBase 599 special 07 May 2015

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Upstream oil sector may see $100bn investment drop in 2015, says Birol Gulf Times + NewBase

The investment in the upstream oil sector is expected to be 19% lower this year compared with 2014, according to Dr Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris. “This is a drop in excess of $100bn, globally, and a big portion of this occurred in North America. This is clearly because of the decline in oil price,” Birol told Gulf Times here yesterday. “We have never seen such a big drop even in times of financial crises.”

But, according to Birol, it is unlikely that the oil price would again drop to $45 a barrel or less anytime soon. Early this year, oil fell below $45 a barrel amid speculation that US stockpiles will increase, exacerbating a global supply glut that’s driven prices to the lowest in more than five and a half years.

“At Davos and many other international fora, the main topic of the discussion was the oil price at $45 or less. Many industry leaders have said we will not see oil at $60 for two to three years. But they were proved wrong,” Birol said citing the oil price on May 5.

Prices climbed back above $60 a barrel as the US trade deficit jumped to a six-year high, sparking concern about economic growth. On why oil price would not slide to $45 in the near term, Birol said, “Besides the estimated lower investments in the upstream oil sector this year, key economies are showing some positive signs. US economy is doing well.

Assumption is that European economy may do better than expected. And if China and the rest of Asia perform above 7% (real GDP growth), we may well see slightly strong demand growth this year compared to 2014.”

Nonetheless, the IEA’s top economist said the oil price would “come under pressure” if Europe and other countries face sluggish economic growth. “On top of these are geopolitical risks. These are difficult to forecast. Iraq, Syria, Libya and the issues between Iran and the international community are all factors that will have implications on the oil price,” Birol pointed out.

On Tuesday night Birol was honoured with the Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah Energy Award in Doha for his lifetime commitment to the producer–consumer dialogue as the chief Economist of the IEA and formerly with the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

He is responsible for the IEA’s flagship World Energy Outlook (WEO) publication, which has been recognised as the “most authoritative source of strategic analysis” of global energy markets. The executive director-elect of the International Energy, Birol has been named by Forbes Magazine among the most powerful people in terms of influence on the world’s energy scene.

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NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010

Mobile: +97150-4822502 [email protected] [email protected]

Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great

experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.

NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 07 May 2015 K. Al Awadi

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