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Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO

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Page 1: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO

Page 2: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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SEB’s strategy remains firm

Universal bank in Sweden and the Baltics

Corporate bank in the Nordics, Germany and internationally

Resilience and flexibility: Capital, liquidity and costs

Page 3: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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SEB has actively reduced its earnings volatility

0

5

10

15

Last 16 quarters Last 12 quarters Last 8 quarters Last 4 quarters

SEB Peer average

Source: Nordea Equity Research, June 2012

Income volatility, Q2 2008 – Q1 2012 (per cent)

Divestment of non-core businesses

Reduced size of investment portfolios

Secured funding and liquidity reserves

Maintained high asset quality

Growth in areas of strength

Strategic actions to reduce income volatility

Page 4: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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SEB’s DNA

LargeCorporates

FinancialInstitutions

Private

SME

Customer segments Size

2,000customers

700customers

4mcustomers

400kcustomers

Income distribution 2011 ( per cent)

0% 10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

SEB

Swedbank

SHB

Nordea

Large Corporates & InstitutionsRetailLifeWealth

Page 5: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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For the first time SEB named Best Bank for Large Corporates and Institutions in the Nordics 2011

Note: Net change between 2010 and 2011 (left-hand graph). Country scores 2011 (right-hand graph)The result is based on 62 surveys across the Nordics. Source: Prospera Large Corporates & Institutions Surveys 2011

Voice of the customer: SEB is the #1 wholesale bank in the Nordics

+20%

SEB #2 #3

SEB SEB

SEB SEB

Page 6: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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Large corporate Nordic and German expansion Platform now in place

1.0

H1 2011 H1 2012

Operating profit growth (SEK bn)

0.8

H1 2011 H1 2012

0.4

H1 2011 H1 2012

0.6

H1 2011 H1 2012

+20% +29%

+22% -1%

Expansion KPIs from start 2010

+254 +SEK 126bn

new large cap clients

new loans and commitments

Note: Germany excludes centralised Treasury operations and wind-down portfolio of real estate assets

Page 7: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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Swedish SMEs: Market share steadily increases with 1 per cent per annum

Increased number of customers*

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 H12012

+20.600

SME credit portfolio (SEK bn)

Note: Active cash management corporate customers

Tailored solutions Advisory International/FXMore complex financing Insurance Occupational insurance (corporate

paid)

Standardised solutions Solutions, not products Directly covers 70 per cent of

the customers need

020406080

100120140160180

2008 2009 2010 2011 H12012

+35bn

Page 8: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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Enhanced Retail franchise in Sweden – continuous growth among private customers

12.0%11.8%11.6%11.6% 11.3%

2008 2009 2010 2011 Q2 2012

Mortgage market share*

13.3%13.0% 13.5%

15.1% 15.5%

2008 2009 2010 2011 Q2 2012

Increased market sharesGrowth private marketFull service customers (thousands)

0

100

200

300

400

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 H1 2012

+28,000

Household deposit market share*

Source: Swedish statistics

Page 9: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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Swedish mortgage portfolio: Low LTVs and strict lending criteriaMortgage lending based on affordability Credit scoring and assessment 7% interest rate test and 60 years

amortisation in cash flow calculation 85% regulatory first lien mortgage cap

&minimum 15% of own equity required If LTV >75% requirement to amortiseMax loan amount 5x total gross household

income irrespective of LTV ‘Sell first and buy later’ recommendation

0-50%

51-85% 18%

>85% 2%

Loan-to-value Share of portfolio

80%

Customer margin

Funding cost for 3 month fixed mortgage rate

Transparent interest rate discussionIndividual pricing based on; Household disposable income Collateral Size of other assets Total mortgage amount vs. property value

Funding cost transparent and updated daily

Low LTVs by regional and global standards

SEB’s Liquidity cost

Stibor 90 days

Page 10: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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Highlights Q2 2012

Franchise and income growth

Continued cost efficiency

10

Balance sheet strengthened further

Page 11: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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9.95.7

-0.3

Operating income Operating expenses Net credit losses

Pre-provision profit and operating profit (SEK bn)

Profit and loss development Q2 2010 – Q2 2012 (SEK bn)

Profit and loss trend

Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12

Operating profit

Pre-provision4.2

11

Q2-12 Q2-12 Q2-12Q2-11Q2-10 Q2-11Q2-10 Q2-11Q2-10

Page 12: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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Net interest income development

12

012345

Q2-10 Q3 Q4 Q1-11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-12 Q2

Net interest income Q2 2010 – Q2 2012 (SEK bn)

Funding & otherDeposits

0.8

Q2-10 Q2-11 Q2-12

Lending

0.6

Q2-10 Q2-11 Q2-12

3.1

Q2-10 Q2-11 Q2-12

Net interest income by income type Q2 2010 – Q2 2012 (SEK bn)

Page 13: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

Dec-00

Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-11

Corporates and households Jun 2012 (SEK bn)

“Financial crisis”

Lending (6.5% CAGR)

Deposits (6.3% CAGR)

+95

+150

Lending and deposit volumes

Excluding divested businesses

“Sov debt crisis”

+145

+80

+85

+19

Customer centric strategy

Supporting core customers in times of need

Deposit patterns show flight to quality in turbulent times

Page 14: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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Net fee and commission income development

0

1

2

3

4

5

Q2-10 Q3 Q4 Q1-11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-12 Q2

Gross fee and commissions by income type Q2 2010 – Q2 2012 (SEK bn)

2.4

Q2-10 Q2-11 Q2Advisory, secondary markets and derivatives Custody and mutual funds

1.7

Q2-10 Q2-11 Q2Payments, cards, lending, deposits and

guarantees

Net fee and commissions Q2 2010 – Q2 2012 (SEK bn)

0.6

Q2-10 Q2-11 Q2

14

Page 15: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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Net financial income development

15

Net financial income development (SEK bn)

1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3

0.0-0.2

0.00.0-0.2 -0.2

Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12

NFI Divisions NFI Treasury & Other GIIPS

Net financial income Q2 2010 – Q2 2012 (SEK bn)

0

1

2

3

4

Q2-10 Q3 Q4 Q1-11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-12 Q2

Excl. GIIPS de-risking

Stability from customer-driven flows in divisions

Limited impact from volatility on MTM liquidity portfolio

Highest quality sovereign and covered bonds with full central bank eligibility

Drivers of net financial income

Page 16: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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Operating leverage through cost efficiency

Average quarterly income (SEK bn)

9.2 9.4 9.8

Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012

Average quarterly expenses (SEK bn)

Operating leverage

5.9 5.8 5.7

Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012

3.2 3.6 4.1

Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012

Average quarterly profit before credit losses (SEK bn)

Page 17: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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Other3%

Germany15%

Baltics9%

Nordics73%

Continued high asset quality

NPLs by region Q2 2010 – Q2 2012 (SEK bn)

Distribution of loan portfolio and credit losses Q2 2010 – Q2 2012 (SEK bn)

3.3

Q2-10 Q2-11 Q2-12

Nordics Germany Baltics

-0.3

Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12

1.8

Q2-10 Q2-11 Q2-12

11.2

Q2-10 Q2-11 Q2-12

Group credit loss level 0.07%

Page 18: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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~90 per cent of 2012 maturities re-financed

Long-term funding activities (SEK bn)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Issued Covered Bonds Issued Senior UnsecuredMatured Covered Bonds Matured Senior Unsecured

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Instrument 2011H1

2012Maturing

2012

Senior unsecured SEB AB 32 21 31

Covered bonds SEB AB 95 39 35

Covered bonds SEB AG 0 1 4

Total 126 61 70

Senior unsecured and covered bonds (SEK bn)

Page 19: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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8.7

13.7

15.3

13.7

15.3

~ -0.5

Business volumes

~ +2.1

RWA real estate model

Generated capital

Higher quality

Q2-08

Q4-08

Q2-09

Q4-09

Q2-10

Q4-10

Q2-11

Q4-11

Q2-12

Illustrative

Basel II Core Tier 1 ratio (%)

15.3

Higher Core Tier 1 ratio through generated capital and efficient risk management

13.7

15.3

Regulatory target range

Page 20: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Equity/Assets Basel I Basel II transitionrules

Basel II Basel III post IAS19

Basel III post IAS19, RWA

mitigation and15% mortgagerisk weight floor

SEB Nordea Swedbank SHB

Source: SEBEnskilda

SEB is well capitalised across all metrics 30 June, 2012

--------------------------------------------------- Core/common equity tier 1 ratios ---------------------------------------------------

Page 21: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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Capital

Still missing pieces in Swedish finish on regulation

LiquidityLiquidity Coverage Ratio

Net Stable Funding Ratio

> 100% by 2013

> 100% by 2018/19

[TBD]

Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio

Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio

> 10% by 2013

> 12% by 2015

[TBD]Countercyclical buffer 0-2.5%

by 2013

[TBD]Mortgage risk-weights ?

Page 22: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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Recent economic development in Sweden

• Swedish economy so far rather resilient to the Euro crises– Strong Q2 GDP development driven by retails sales,

rebound to be expected in H2– But sub-par growth also 2013

• Krona strengthening accelerated vs. EUR and USD– EUR/SEK +10 per cent during the summer– Limited impact so far, but more focus on long-term impact

• Swedish Central Bank repo rate in focus– Two cuts anticipated before early -13 to stimulate growth

• House price worries abating– Soft landing anticipated

Swedish economic indicatorsGDP, YoY, per cent House prices indexRiksbanks repo rateSEK/EUR

012345

2005 2007 2009 2011 20130

50

100

150

2005 2007 2009 2011-10

-5

0

5

10

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013789

101112

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Page 23: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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Outlook

Slow pace of recovery to continue

Flight to quality to benefit strong banks

Need for continued resilience and flexibility

Page 24: Nomura Financial Services Conference Jan Erik Back, CFO · 2014-09-18 · Nomura Financial Services Conference London, 29 August 2012 Jan Erik Back, CFO. 2 SEB’s strategy remains

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The Relationship bank in our part of the world