North Missouri Career Opportunities: The State of the Economy and Implications for

StudentsMary Bruton| Missouri Economic Research and Information Center| Missouri Department of

Economic Development

OverviewEmployer Outlook

Workforce Trends

Employer Needs

Employment Decline in Recession

Source: Rockefeller Institute of Government

Impact of Recession by CountyAP Economic Stress Index – March 2010

The combined impact of foreclosures, unemployment, and bankruptcy

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Unemployment Insurance Claims by Industry

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Utilities

Management of companies and enterprises

Agriculture forestry fishing and hunting

Mining

Public administration

Real estate and rental and leasing

Educational services

Information

Finance and insurance

Arts entertainment and recreation

Other services

Professional and technical services

Unclassified

Wholesale trade

Transportation and warehousing

Health care and social assistance

Accomodation and food services

Retail trade

Administrative and waste services

Manufacturing

Construction

118

253

674

834

960

1,438

1,461

1,550

2,098

2,110

2,271

2,823

2,866

3,320

4,182

5,497

7,781

8,163

9,487

12,500

22,185

Missouri UI Continued Claims by Industry

Source: MERIC, Missouri Dept. of Labor & Industrial Relations

Unemployment Insurance Claims by Level of

Educational Attainment

Source: MERIC, Missouri Dept. of Labor & Industrial Relations

55%34%

6%

2% 0% 0% 3%

Missouri UI Claimants by Educational Attainment

Grade 0 - 12

1 Year College or Tech School

4 Years College or Undergrad

1 Year Post Grad

2 Years Post grad or Masters

Doctorate

Info not available

Generational Impact of Recession

Source: MERIC, US BLS – Local Area Unemployment Statistics

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2009 Unemployment Rate by Gender and Age

Males

Females

Shifting Employment Trends

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

90M

ay-9

0Se

p-90

Jan-

91M

ay-9

1Se

p-91

Jan-

92M

ay-9

2Se

p-92

Jan-

93M

ay-9

3Se

p-93

Jan-

94M

ay-9

4Se

p-94

Jan-

95M

ay-9

5Se

p-95

Jan-

96M

ay-9

6Se

p-96

Jan-

97M

ay-9

7Se

p-97

Jan-

98M

ay-9

8Se

p-98

Jan-

99M

ay-9

9Se

p-99

Jan-

00M

ay-0

0Se

p-00

Jan-

01M

ay-0

1Se

p-01

Jan-

02M

ay-0

2Se

p-02

Jan-

03M

ay-0

3Se

p-03

Jan-

04M

ay-0

4Se

p-04

Jan-

05M

ay-0

5Se

p-05

Jan-

06M

ay-0

6Se

p-06

Jan-

07M

ay-0

7Se

p-07

Jan-

08M

ay-0

8Se

p-08

Jan-

09M

ay-0

9Se

p-09

Jan-

10

Missouri Employment for Selected IndustriesThousands of Persons, Seasonally Adjusted

Recessions

Manufacturing

Educ. and Healthcare

Prof. and Business Services

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current

Employment Statistics 1990-2010

Long-term Industry Outlook for Northwest MissouriFastest Growth

Source: Northwest Missouri Long-term Industry

Employment Projections, 2008-2018

Industry2008 Estimated Employment

2018 Projected Employment Net Change % Change

Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 203 253 50 24.6%Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 2,165 2,688 523 24.2%Waste Management and Remediation Service 166 201 35 21.1%Repair and Maintenance 961 1,157 196 20.4%Warehousing and Storage 433 510 77 17.8%Administrative and Support Services 3,987 4,681 694 17.4%Ambulatory Health Care Services 3,030 3,502 472 15.6%Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 798 917 119 14.9%General Merchandise Stores 3,352 3,844 492 14.7%Specialty Trade Contractors 2,303 2,631 328 14.2%Real Estate 539 610 71 13.2%Health and Personal Care Stores 555 628 73 13.2%Construction of Buildings 1,082 1,219 137 12.7%Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 696 780 84 12.1%Social Assistance 1,575 1,751 176 11.2%Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 4,028 4,464 436 10.8%Truck Transportation 1,129 1,245 116 10.3%Hospitals 4,743 5,090 347 7.3%Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 1,887 1,999 112 5.9%Local Government (excl. Education and Hospitals) 5,211 5,510 299 5.7%

Long-term Occupation Outlook for Northwest MissouriFastest Growth

Source: Northwest Missouri Long-term Occupational

Employment Projections, 2008-2018

Career Grade Occupation

2008 Employment

2018 Projected

EmploymentNet

Change%

ChangeAverage Wage Education/Training Required

A+ Network Systems & Data Communications Analysts 120 170 51 41.80% $74,790 Bachelor's degreeB Home Health Aides 570 750 179 31.51% $19,540 Short-term on-the-job trainingA- Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 100 120 28 29.17% $78,380 Bachelor's degreeA- Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists 80 100 20 26.67% $67,090 Doctoral degreeB Pharmacy Technicians 330 420 85 25.68% $24,560 Moderate-term on-the-job trainingA- Personal Financial Advisors 70 90 19 25.68% $91,280 Bachelor's degreeB- Fitness Trainers & Aerobics Instructors 130 160 31 24.41% $25,290 Postsecondary vocational awardB+ HVAC Mechanics & Installers 140 180 35 24.31% $40,880 Long-term on-the-job trainingB- Tree Trimmers & Pruners 50 70 12 22.22% $29,370 Short-term on-the-job trainingA+ Cost Estimators 160 200 36 22.22% $57,690 Bachelor's degreeA- Computer Software Engineers, Applications 220 270 49 22.07% $76,060 Bachelor's degreeB- Entertainment Attendants & Related Workers 60 70 12 20.34% $20,450 Short-term on-the-job trainingB Bill & Account Collectors 350 410 65 18.73% $28,780 Short-term on-the-job trainingB+ Self-Enrichment Education Teachers 190 220 35 18.62% $35,420 Work experience in a related occ.A- Mixing & Blending Machine Setters & Tenders 390 460 72 18.37% $35,130 Moderate-term on-the-job trainingB+ Physical Therapist Assistants 50 60 9 18.00% $43,620 Associate degreeA- Employment, Recruitment, & Placement Specialists 120 140 21 17.95% $46,260 Bachelor's degreeA- Compliance Officers 130 160 23 17.42% $50,250 Long-term on-the-job trainingD Physical Therapist Aides 20 30 4 17.39% $21,920 Short-term on-the-job trainingA- Training & Development Specialists 150 180 26 16.99% $49,530 Bachelor's or higher, plus work exp.

Long-term Occupation Outlook for Northwest MissouriMost Total Openings

Source: Northwest Missouri Long-term Occupational

Employment Projections, 2008-2018

Career Grade Occupation

2018 Projected

EmploymentAverage Wage

Growth Openings

Replacement Openings Education/Training Required

B- Cashiers 3,580 $18,050 51 1,585 Short-term on-the-job trainingB- Retail Salespersons 3,160 $24,980 177 831 Short-term on-the-job trainingB- Waiters & Waitresses 1,660 $17,930 23 902 Short-term on-the-job trainingC+ Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers 3,210 $16,870 266 623 Short-term on-the-job trainingA+ Registered Nurses 2,460 $56,670 301 378 Associate degreeA- Customer Service Representatives 1,530 $30,990 191 421 Moderate-term on-the-job trainingD Laborers & Freight, Stock, & Material Movers 1,550 $25,710 0 514 Short-term on-the-job trainingB- Office Clerks, General 2,720 $27,720 138 352 Short-term on-the-job trainingD Child Care Workers 1,440 $19,040 0 428 Short-term on-the-job trainingB Nursing Aides, Orderlies, & Attendants 2,180 $21,660 226 195 Postsecondary vocational awardA- Truck Drivers, Heavy & Tractor-Trailer 1,660 $38,110 144 272 Moderate-term on-the-job trainingB- Stock Clerks & Order Fillers 1,460 $22,630 85 317 Short-term on-the-job trainingD Janitors & Cleaners 1,840 $22,170 0 348 Short-term on-the-job trainingA- Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Manufacturing 1,330 $57,740 34 300 Work experience in a related occ.A- Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 860 $34,180 83 243 Postsecondary vocational awardB+ Elementary School Teachers 1,170 $43,720 72 250 Bachelor's degreeC+ General & Operations Managers 1,030 $96,030 0 314 Bachelor's or higher, plus work exp.D Team Assemblers 1,330 $26,470 0 309 Moderate-term on-the-job trainingB+ First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 1,320 $39,020 26 277 Work experience in a related occ.A Insurance Sales Agents 870 $54,170 77 183 Bachelor's degree

Shifting Workforce TrendsPercent of Tomorrow’s Talent

Pool Already At Work

Source: MERIC, US Census Bureau Population Projections

Shifting Population Trends

Talent Attraction & Retention

Workforce 2025 Profile

• Total population is projected to increase by 9.5 %

• Older population groups are projected to increase

• Top employing sectors have most retirements

• 60% of workforce in 2025 is already working

• New technologies will be embedded in nearly every job

• Latino workforce participation is higher than others

Workforce 2025 Challenges

• Not enough students and workers with foundational and advanced math and sciences skills

• The percent of students at or above proficient in math declined from Grade 4 to Grade 8. There is more consistency between 4th and 8th grades.

• The percentage of first time freshman enrolled in remedial math and reading classes at Missouri Public Institutions has increased.

• Institutions of higher education are producing fewer college graduates in science and mathematics-related fields.

• Quality v. quantity of degrees

Employer Challenges

4.2

7.3

13.1

13.9

14.8

46.6

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

Inadequate Due to Drug or Alcohol

Inadequate Due to Lack of Experience

Inadequate Due to Poor Work Habits

Other

Inadequate Due to Lack of Job Relevant Skills

Adequate

Missouri Businesses Description of Quality of Recent Hires

Skills Needed for Missouri’s Growing Industries

Competency Models outline industry-identified skills and talents necessary for future workers to be successful in Missouri’s Targeted Industries

The P-20 Education Continuum

Missouri Green Jobs Report

The Missouri Green Jobs survey is the first survey of Missouri employers that quantifies the number of green jobs in the state.

Missouri defines green jobs as jobs directly involved in generating or supporting a firm’s green-related products or services.

Green Economy – Includes industries that contribute to at least one of the following:

• The conservation of energy (energy efficiency)

• The creation of renewable energy

• Organic food production

• The reduction (or elimination) of the direct negative impacts a product, company, or individual may have on the environment

• The reduction (or elimination) of the direct negative impacts the environment may have on an individual

• Research and development that goes to supporting any of the aforementioned functions of a green job

What is Green?

Green Jobs – Primary occupations engaged in generating a firm’s green-related products or services.

Green Industries – A detailed industry that is likely to contain firms that produce parts, components, products, or services related to the green economy. Industries and firms were classified as green-related based on their primary product or service; not based on whether they were taking internal steps to use less energy or be more environmentally responsible.

What is Green? (cont.)

Missouri’s Green Economy Sectors

Missouri boasts 131,103 total green jobs—both direct and support positions—among employers, making up 4.8% of total employment in the state.

Missouri Green Employment by Sector

Primary vs. Support Green Employment

www.missourieconomy.org