northwest power planning council residential space conditioning and domestic hot water conservation...
TRANSCRIPT
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Residential Space Residential Space Conditioning and Domestic Conditioning and Domestic
Hot Water Conservation Hot Water Conservation Resource AssessmentResource Assessment
Overview of Analytical Process Overview of Analytical Process and Major Assumptionsand Major Assumptions
February 27, 2008February 27, 2008
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
What’s Covered – Space What’s Covered – Space Conditioning Conditioning
Three Building TypesThree Building Types– Single Family (up to & including 4-plex)Single Family (up to & including 4-plex)– Multifamily (5-plex & above)Multifamily (5-plex & above)– Manufactured/Mobile HomesManufactured/Mobile Homes
Three VintagesThree Vintages– Pre-1980 Pre-1980 – 1980 – 19921980 – 1992– Post-1992 (= 1983 MCS level construction)Post-1992 (= 1983 MCS level construction)– May add 4May add 4thth – Post 2008 OR/WA/IEEC – Post 2008 OR/WA/IEEC
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
What’s Covered (cont)What’s Covered (cont)
Measures/Technologies/PracticesMeasures/Technologies/Practices– Thermal Shell ImprovementsThermal Shell Improvements– Duct SealingDuct Sealing– Heating System Conversions to Air-Source Heating System Conversions to Air-Source
Heat PumpsHeat Pumps– Heat Pump and Central Air Conditioning Heat Pump and Central Air Conditioning
System Efficiency UpgradesSystem Efficiency Upgrades
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Analytical Process – Measure Analytical Process – Measure Cost-EffectivenessCost-Effectiveness
Baseline Characteristics
•C&R D Reports•Current Codes•Market Surveys•Federal Standards
Prototype Simulations
• Eleven Buildings • Five locations• Adjusted for “system” efficiency• Nine Climate Zone Combinations
• 3 Heating• 3 Cooling
PROCOST
•Market Price Forecast•Load Shapes•T&D Losses & Value•Non-Energy Benefits
Unit Level Results
• “Optimized” Measure Order• Cost-Effectiveness Determination
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Analytical Process – Analytical Process – Interactive MeasuresInteractive Measures
Building Thermal Shells
Insulated to Cost-Effectiveness Limit
Ducts Sealed and Insulated to Cost-Effectiveness Limit
Heat Pump Conversions/Upgrades to Cost-Effectiveness Limit
Internal Gains Adjusted to Reflect Cost-Effective Appliance and Lighting Efficiency Improvements
Post-Retrofit/Upgrade Use
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Analytical Process – Analytical Process – “Applicable Units”“Applicable Units”
Housing StockHousing Stock– Built Pre-1980, surviving in 2025Built Pre-1980, surviving in 2025– Built Post-1980/Pre1993, surviving in 2025Built Post-1980/Pre1993, surviving in 2025– Built between 2005 – 2025Built between 2005 – 2025
Duct Systems & Space Conditioning Duct Systems & Space Conditioning EquipmentEquipment– Single Family and Manufactured HomesSingle Family and Manufactured Homes– Heating & Cooling Equipment Installed in New Heating & Cooling Equipment Installed in New
Construction and Replaced “on burn out”Construction and Replaced “on burn out”
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Summary of 5Summary of 5thth Residential Space Residential Space
Conditioning Supply CurveConditioning Supply Curve
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 500 1000 1500
Real Levelized Cost Mills/ kWh (2000$)
Eco
nom
ic P
ote
nti
al in
20
25
(a
MW
)
Technical Potential
Economic Potential
Summary of 5Summary of 5thth Plan Residential Space Plan Residential Space Conditioning Conservation Resource Conditioning Conservation Resource
Potential by MeasurePotential by Measure
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s b
y 2
02
5
SF HtPmp Upgrade w/PTCS
MH - PTCS Duct Sealing
SF Convert to HtPmp w/PTCS
SF Weatherization
SF - PTCS Duct Sealing
MH HtPmp Upgrade w/PTCS
SGC - MF
MH Convert to HtPmp w/PTCS
SGC - MH
SGC - SF
MF Weatherization
MH - PTCS System O&M
MH Weatherization
SF CAC Upgrade SEERw/PTCS
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
What’s Covered – Water HeatingWhat’s Covered – Water Heating
High Efficiency TanksHigh Efficiency Tanks Heat Pump and Solar Water HeatersHeat Pump and Solar Water Heaters 2.0 GPM Showerheads2.0 GPM Showerheads GFX Wastewater Heat RecoveryGFX Wastewater Heat Recovery
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Analytical Process – Analytical Process – Interactive MeasuresInteractive Measures
Standby Loss Adjusted to Reflect Cost-Effective Efficiency Improvements
Heat Pump and Solar Water Heating Cost-Effectiveness Determined
Waste Water Heat Recovery Cost-Effectiveness Determined
Water Use Adjusted to Reflect Cost-Effective Appliance and Water Fixture Efficiency Improvements
Post-Retrofit/Upgrade Use
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Heat Pump and PTCS Heat Pump and PTCS Commissioning Cost EstimatesCommissioning Cost Estimates
Three Sources:Three Sources:– Existing RTF cost estimate based on federal Existing RTF cost estimate based on federal
Department of Energy data from standards Department of Energy data from standards setting processsetting process
– STAC – Survey of regional HVAC contractors STAC – Survey of regional HVAC contractors (preliminary returns from 23 contractors(preliminary returns from 23 contractors
– Online HVAC equipment sales sites (“box Online HVAC equipment sales sites (“box cost” only)cost” only)
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Cost to Consumers of HSPF 7.7/SEER 13 Cost to Consumers of HSPF 7.7/SEER 13 Three Ton Heat PumpThree Ton Heat Pump
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
Low Mid-Point High
RTF
STAC
Online
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Cost to Consumers of HSPF 8.5/SEER 14 Cost to Consumers of HSPF 8.5/SEER 14 Three Ton Heat PumpThree Ton Heat Pump
$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,000$9,000
$10,000
Low Mid-Point High
RTF
STAC
Online
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Cost to Consumers of HSPF 9.0/SEER 15 Cost to Consumers of HSPF 9.0/SEER 15 Three Ton Heat PumpThree Ton Heat Pump
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Low Mid-Point High
RTF
STAC
Online
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF 8.5/SEER 14 Three Ton Heat Pump8.5/SEER 14 Three Ton Heat Pump
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Low Mid-Point High
RTF
STAC
Online
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF 9.0/SEER 15 Three Ton Heat Pump9.0/SEER 15 Three Ton Heat Pump
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Low Mid-Point High
RTF
STAC
Online
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of PTCS Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of PTCS System CommissioningSystem Commissioning
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Low Mid-Point High
RTF
STAC
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Geothermal Heat Pump Cost: Sample of Geothermal Heat Pump Cost: Sample of OTEC Program ParticipantsOTEC Program Participants
UnitUnit CostCost COPCOP EEREER Capacity Capacity (Tons)(Tons)
11 $10,793 $10,793 3.33.3 15.915.9 3.03.0
22 $19,412 $19,412 3.83.8 18.818.8 6.06.0
33 $19,162 $19,162 4.04.0 22.222.2 4.04.0
44 $17,000 $17,000 3.73.7 18.518.5 3.53.5
55 $10,260 $10,260 3.33.3 14.914.9 5.05.0
66 $12,500 $12,500 3.13.1 12.612.6 5.05.0
AverageAverage $14,855 $14,855 3.53.5 17.217.2 4.44.4
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Geothermal Heat Pump Cost: Sample Geothermal Heat Pump Cost: Sample of OTEC Program Participantsof OTEC Program Participants
UnitUnit CostCost NotesNotes
11 $10,793 $10,793 Customer did own trenching and backfillingCustomer did own trenching and backfilling
22 $19,412 $19,412 New furnace and ductwork; 6 trenches 150’ each with New furnace and ductwork; 6 trenches 150’ each with header main line)header main line)
33 $19,162 $19,162 New construction, includes ductwork of 22 runs and two New construction, includes ductwork of 22 runs and two returns) The ground was very rocky and took more labor for returns) The ground was very rocky and took more labor for digging.digging.
44 $17,000 $17,000 All done by contractorAll done by contractor
55 $10,260 $10,260 Customer did own trenching and backfillingCustomer did own trenching and backfilling
66 $12,500 $12,500 Customer did own trenching and backfillingCustomer did own trenching and backfilling
AverageAverage $14,855 $14,855 All SystemsAll Systems
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Geothermal Heat Pump Cost: Source Mark Geothermal Heat Pump Cost: Source Mark Jerome, Pacific Air ComfortJerome, Pacific Air Comfort
Installed CostInstalled Cost LowLow MidMid HighHigh
GSHP CostGSHP Cost $7,500 $7,500 $9,000 $9,000 $10,500 $10,500
LoopLoop $5,000 $5,000 $8,000 $8,000 $12,000 $12,000
Commissioning & Commissioning & OtherOther
$1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Baseline Air Source HPBaseline Air Source HP $2,400 $2,400 $3,300 $3,300 $4,400 $4,400
GSHP Incremental CostGSHP Incremental Cost $11,100 $11,100 $14,700 $14,700 $19,100 $19,100
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Geothermal Heat Pump Cost/TonGeothermal Heat Pump Cost/TonExisting RTF vs. Alternative Cost Existing RTF vs. Alternative Cost
EstimatesEstimates
$2,903 $2,697
$4,857$4,500
$7,800
$2,500
$3,500
$4,500
$5,500
$6,500
$7,500
$8,500
Existing RTF Average, customertrenching &backfilling
Average, contractorinstalled
M. Jerome - Low M. Jerome - High
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Data NeedsData Needs
Retrofit Shell Upgrade CostRetrofit Shell Upgrade Cost New Construction Shell Upgrade CostNew Construction Shell Upgrade Cost High Efficiency HVAC Upgrade CostHigh Efficiency HVAC Upgrade Cost PTCS Duct Sealing and Commissioning PTCS Duct Sealing and Commissioning
CostCost Sub-metered or “PRISM” based end use Sub-metered or “PRISM” based end use
consumption estimates for space and water consumption estimates for space and water heating by building type and vintageheating by building type and vintage