NPP SITING IN WESTERN PART OF NPP SITING IN WESTERN PART OF JAVA ISLAND INDONESIA: JAVA ISLAND INDONESIA: REGIONAL ANALYSIS STAGEREGIONAL ANALYSIS STAGE

NATIONAL NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY OF INDONESIA (BATAN)

A. Sarwiyana Sastratenaya Yuliastuti

Presented at OECD NEA

CNRA International Workshop on “New Reactor Siting, Licensing and Construction Experience”

September 14-17, 2010 , Prague, Czech Republic

Content

1. General Information of Indonesia

2. Site Selection Process

3. Regional Analysis

A. Coverage area

B. Methodology

C. Topical & Integrated Regional Analysis

4. Summary & Recommendation

1. GENERAL INFORMATION

An archipelago with 17,508 islands

1.9 million square miles total

Fourth most populous country in the world, 223 million people (2006), 1.49% growth rate

59% of population reside in Java, in a 7% total area

400 volcanoes, 100 active, 112 in Java island

Air temperature : 27.6° to 36.8° C (day) and 14.6° to 24.6° C (night)

Humidity: 63% to 83%

Map of Indonesia

2. SITE SELECTION PROCESS

R&D / Government OWNER

SDR SER Site Permit

Site Survey

Regional Analysis

Screening

Comparison & Ranking

Site Evaluation Pre-Operational Pre-Survey

Interest Regions

Potential Sites

Selected Candidate Sites

Preferred

Candidate Sites

Design Basis

Parameter

Readiness of the site

for Construction

2 thn

Scope of the paper

Coverage Area on Site Selection Process

Site area (~1 km2)

(Map scale 1: 100,000-50,000)

150 km (Map scale 1/250,000 -100,000)

(Map scale 1:25,000-5,000)

Regional Near regional

Site vicinity

25 – 50 km

5 km

Aspect of Study

SITE SITE SELECTIONSELECTION

Safety Related Aspect

Non Safety

Related

Aspect

Public Education

Extern. Events

Impact of NPP to

Envrmnt.

• Surface Faulting

• Seismicity

• Subsurface material

• Volcanism

• River Flooding

• Coastal Flooding (incl. tsunami)

• Other External Hazard

• Human Induced Events

• Dispersion • Demography

• Infrastructure • Spatial Planning • Ecology, Social, Economy, Culture

• Dissemination of nuclear energy and technology information (socialization, art performance), etc.

Scope of the paper

3. REGIONAL ANALYSIS

U

Bojoneg

ara

P. Pan

jang

T. KaitT. P

ontang

Daerah Interes

Cibuay

a

Cilam

aya

Batas Survei Regional

U. Pemanuka

n

0

Bandar Lampung

SUMEDANGBANDUNGSUKABUMI

BOGOR

PANDEGLANG

CIREBON

Cilegon

INDRAMAYU

139

141

Interest Area

Note: DKI Jakarta and Lampung area were not as site target , but data of the area were needed for comprehensive analysis.

Coverage study area with radius 150 km

A. Coverage Area

B. Methodology

Integrated Regional Analysis I

(IRA I)

GROUP I DATA OF NATURAL EXTERNAL EVENTS

Accepted Area based on Nat.

External Events Criteria

IRA II

IRA III

GROUP II DATA OF HUMAN INDUCED EVENTS

Accepted Area based on Human Induced Events

Criteria

GROUP III DATA OF

POPULATION AND DISPERSION

Area can be accepted based on

Population and Dispersion Cons.

IRA

POTENTIAL SITES

Spatial Planning, Infrastructure and

Environmental Consideration

Aspects of Group I : 1. Surface faulting 2. Seismicity 3. Subsurface material 4. Volcanism 5. Other external events 6. Coastal Flooding 7. River Flooding

General Criteria

1

2 3 4 5 6 7

a b

c

d e

Scope of the Paper

1) Surface Faulting

Acceptance criteria:

Distance of active fault (considered as supposed capable fault) to potential site should be ≥ 5 km

Capable faults is not toward to the site

Note :

Fault is considered to be capable if younger than 120,000 years old or younger than Middle Pleistocene.

C. Topical & Integrated Regional Analysis

a. Natural External Events

Identification of Supposed Capable Fault

SRTM : Satellite Radar Terrain Map

Publication

Satellite Imagery:

Landsat, SRTM,

Quickbird

Seismic

reflection

intepretation

Land & Marine

Supposed Capable Fault

Data Source

Supposed Capable Faults Hazard Zone

2) Seismicity

Acceptance criterion:

Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is defined to be ≤ 0.4 g, in order to minimize the NPP construction cost

The data used in the seismicity analysis are obtained from the earthquake catalog data in Indonesia. The data has been tabulated by the Incorporated Research Institute for Seismology (IRIS) since 1964 to 2008 from various sources, such as the USGS / NEIC, ISC, Harvard, and other databases. Other data obtained from the Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory of the year 1770 to 2001, and from the damage earthquake catalog of Geology Board from 1833 to 2006, and the calculated data of focal mechanism solutions from Harvard CMT catalog.

Seismic Zone For Area of Study

Earthquake distribution

Geodynamics setting

Faults Pattern completed with

its focal mechanism

Zone 1: Subduction Zona 2: Fore Arc Zona 3: Sumatera Fault Zona 4: Lampung Fault Zona 5: Panaitan Fault Zona 6 :Banten Fault

Zona 7: Bayah Fault Zona 8: Citarik Fault Zona 9: Baribis–Bumiayu Fault Zona 10: Cimandiri – Citanduy Ft Zona 11: Pegunungan Selatan Ft Zona 12: Java north fault

PGA Map of 250 Years of Exceedance Using Uncertainty of 0.15

Bojonegara : 0.3 g P. Panjang : 0.28 g Tj. Pontang : 0.26 g Pamanukan : 0.135 g

Tj. Kait : 0.2 g Cibuaya : 0.131 g Cilamaya :0.140 g

3) Subsurface Material

The purpose of subsurface material investigation is to acquire the geotechnical characteristics and the soil profile of the site

Based on the secondary data available, it can be concluded that:

North coast of Banten and West Java Province is lying on alluvial deposits which are defined as from unconsolidated to semi consolidated material. Meanwhile, the land of Pulau Panjang, a small island in the northern Banten Province, is lying on the coral reefs which are regarded as relatively hard material

Sediment on the north coast of Banten and West Java Province is more than 200 m thick. Quarternary rocks compose of clay with sand intercalation are at depth 0-230 m.

The whole interest area are not in danger of ground movement events

Bojonegara, Pulau Panjang, Tanjung Pontang and Cibuaya area are not lie in liquefaction zone.

Liquefaction events on the north coast of Banten and West Java Province have never been reported.

Bedrock and Quaternary Rocks Distribution Map

4) Volcanism

Definition of Capable Volcano:

Historical volcanic activity (volcanic activity 1600 a.d., Indonesia type A)

Manifestation of magmatic activity at present (Indonesia: Type B and C). Type B is characterized by its cone morphology, while type C is characterized by fumarolic activity but unclear cone morphology

Last activity time < maximum repose interval

Quaternary Composite Type, Pliocene Caldera Type

Criteria

Potential site is not laid in the SDV radius of capable volcano such as phyroclastic flow, phyroclastic fall, lava flow

Flowchart of Volcanic Hazard Analysis

Initial

scoping

Characterize

sources

of volcanic activity

as initiating events

Hazards

screening

Evaluate

hazards at site

Volcanism <10Myr

In appropriate

region?

Is there current

volcanic activity?

Is there Holocene

volcanic activity?

Site suitability

decision,

inputs for

design basisNot a design basis event:

no further investigation needed

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

No

No

Potential for any

volcanic hazard

at the site?

Develop site-

specific Volcanic

Hazard Model

STAGE 1 STAGE 2 STAGE 3 STAGE 4

Yes

No

Yes

If not,

(i.e. 10 Myr to 0.01 Myr),

is future volcanic activity

credible?

Increasing need for substantiation

Volcano(s)

capable

No

Volcanic Hazard Zone

5) Coastal Flooding

1. Eustacy

2. Tsunami

3. Tides

4. Extreme weather condition

5. Land subsidence

The site is not flooded as high as 1 meter or more in 100 years coming

not affected by tsunami wave due to historical tectonic earthquake and undersea volcanic activity

Influenced items Acceptance Criteria

Eustacy Eustacy of sea-level rise is caused by the addition of the water volume due to ice melting as well as thermal expansion due to increased water temperature

Coastal Flooding Modelling in Area of Study Caused by Eustacy

The modelling was based on worst scenario of global sea level rising of 1cm/year

after 100 years

* The red color presents the flooded area

Tsunami Tsunami attributable to volcanic which was caused by the collapse of

Krakatoa caldera in year 1883 occurred in Sunda Strait. Tsunami attributable to tectonic was caused by tectonics related to

subduction zone happened in the far south. Tectonic tsunami which is not related to subduction zone occurred in

Sunda Strait such as the Panaitan tsunami.

Flooded Area Affected by Krakatoa Tsunami

6) River Flooding

Acceptance criterion: The site is not flooded by river flooding as high as 1 meter or more with return period of 100 year.

7) Other External Hazard

Other External Hazard Zone

Other external hazard consist of coastal abration, uplifting, extreme meteorological events, gas emission and forest fires.

Hazard zone for seven natural external event aspects

b. Integrated Regional Analysis of Natural External Events (IRA – I)

c. Human Induced External Events

Item Screening Distance value (SDV) radius

Stationary Source

• Large & busy airport 16 km

• Small-medium airport 10-20 km

• Permanent & large military facility 30 km

• Small-medium military facility 10-20 km

• Oil/gas refinery, power generation and petrochemical industries

3 - 5 km

• Large harbor 3 - 5 km

Mobile Source

• Toll/Artery road and railway 0,5 -1 km

• Gas or oil pipe line 1 km

• Cruise line 4 km

Stationary Source Hazard Zone

Mobile Source Hazard Zone

d. Integrated Regional Analysis of Natural & Human Induced External Events (IRA- I & II)

Two Potential Sites Kramatwatu – Bojonegara & Pulau Panjang

4. SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATION

Combining the hazard zone of natural and human induced external event would produce a free-hazard zone. Furthermore, it can be defined and delineated to 2 (two) potential sites namely Kramatwatu-Bojonegara and Pulau Panjang.

However, those potential sites to become a selected candidate site as the results of near regional analysis stage, need further investigation and some field works in order to achieve appropriate data, especially on verification of supposed capable faults and deep investigation of capable volcanoes in the radius of 50 km from the site.

Thank You