nuclear energy and sustainable financing. challenges and...
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Nuclear Energy and Sustainable Financing. Challenges and ProspectsTeodor Chirica, PhD
FORATOM President
Senior Adviser to the CEO Nuclearelectrica Bucuresti, 06.09.2019
FORATOM acts as the voice of the European nuclear industry in energy policy discussions with EU Institutions & other key stakeholders
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
Who we are3
Bulgaria
France
Finland
Belgium
Italy
Hungary
Netherlands
Romania
CEZ (Czech Republic) and PGE EJ 1 (Poland) are Corporate Members
Sweden
Spain
United Kingdom
Slovenia
Slovakia
Ukraine
Switzerland
The membership of FORATOM is made up of 15 national nuclear associationsrepresenting more than 3,000 companies.
Membership4
EU Energy Policy:• Economics of nuclear• EU energy mix• Environment• Euratom Treaty• Security of energy supply• Special projects - Brexit
Communication:• Nuclear advocacy• Perception of nuclear energy• Promotion of nuclear energy• Young generations in nuclear
Nuclear technology:• Nuclear safety• Nuclear transport• IRD• Supply Chain• Waste disposal
Key topics5
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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2017 - atmospheric carbon levels not seen in 800,000 years
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/08/atmospheric-carbon-last-year-reached-levels-not-seen-800000-years?utm_campaign=ScienceNow&utm_source=JHubbard&utm_medium=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR15EiwNR_2vbvFy1szIOe2nErGgf4TSWHqsl37HdlTMdOnXOTSABNvTkbE
• Atmospheric concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide—both potent warming gases—were the highest on record.
• Warmer temperatures contributed to wildfire outbreaks around the world
• Alaska - high permafrost temperatures record, inducing releases of CO2 and methane
• Arctic sea ice took a hit - the extent of sea ice hit a 38-year low and was 8% below the mean extent reported for 1981 to 2010
Even if humanity “stopped the greenhouse gasses at their current
concentrations today, the atmosphere would still continue to warm for next couple decades to maybe a century”, Greg Johnson, oceanographer, NOAA’s
Pacific Marine Environmental Lab., Seattle, Washington
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Energia Nucleara in Lume (2018)
https://www.world-nuclear.org/getmedia/d77ef8a1-b720-44aa-9b87-abf09f474b43/performance-report-2019.pdf.aspxhttps://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-2-39_web.pdf 33https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS2-32_web.pdf
2018 Reactori in operare
GWe TWh/an %nuclear
Global 448 (436) 397 2563 100,0%
SUA* 98 (104) 99 808 31,5%
Franta 58 (58) 63 396 15,5%
China 46 (116) 43 277 11,0%
Rusia 36 (33) 27 191 7,5%
* The US administration is committed to reviving and revitalizing the nuclear industry and leads by action, not just by words (Dan Brouilette, Deputy Secretary of State, US DOE)https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/11-reasons-why-doe-all-new-nuclear
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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• 450 nuclear power reactors in operation - 11% of the world's electricity/ 33% of clean electricity• 60 under construction (~15% of existing capacity)• 2017 - the fifth consecutive year that global nuclear generation has risen• 2018 - China: 38 nuclear reactors operational (9% of the world's nuclear capacity)/ 3 of 4 connected
and 18 din 60 in construction
Nuclear power in the world (2017)
https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/nuclear-power-in-the-world-today.aspx
2018 Reactors in Operation
GWe TWh/an %nuclear
Global 448 (436) 397 2563 100,0%
USA* 98 (104) 99 808 31,5%
France 58 (58) 63 396 15,5%
China 46 (116) 43 277 11,0%
Russia 36 (33) 27 191 7,5%
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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Nuclear energy and decarbonisation (1)
GLOBAL WARMING OF 1.5 °C, IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, http://ipcc.ch/sr15
Chapter 2. Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development • By mid-century, the majority of primary energy comes from non-fossil fuels (i.e., renewables and
nuclear energy) in most 1.5°C pathways• Nuclear power increases its share in most 1.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot by 2050, but in
some pathways decrease https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/02/SR15_Chapter2_Low_Res.pdf
Chapter 4. Strengthening and Implementing the Global Response
• The current deployment pace of nuclear energy is constrained by social acceptability in many countries due to concerns over risks of accidents and radioactive waste mgmt.
• Comparative risk assessment shows health risks are low (for nuclear) per unit of electricity production, and land requirement is lower than that of other power sources - the political processes triggered by societal concerns depend on the country-specific
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/02/SR15_Chapter4_Low_Res.pdf
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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NUCLEAR POWER IN A CLEAN ENERGY SYSTEM, OECD/IEA, May 2019https://www.iea.org/publications/nuclear/
Nuclear power (2018):• The second-largest globally source of low-carbon electricity (2700 TWh), providing 10% of global electricity supply.• 11.2 GW of new capacity connected to the grids globally in 2018 – the highest since 1990 – (China and Russia).• Advanced economies - nuclear power is the largest source of low-carbon electricity, providing 18% of supply. • Yet nuclear is quickly losing ground.
Global low-carbon power generation by source, 2018
Advanced economies low-carbon power generation by source, 2018
Cumulative CO2 emissions avoided by global nuclear power to date000
Nuclear energy and decarbonisation (3)
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
What does nuclear contribute to the EU's economy?13
126NUCLEAR REACTORS
IN OPERATION
100TURNOVER
€ BILLION/YEAR
1,100,000JOBS
26%ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
50%LOW-CARBOMELECTRICITY
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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New build in the EU – construction & plans
Countries preparing or considering new build*:
Bulgaria Czech Republic Finland France Hungary Poland Romania UK
*Source: European Commission’s PINC, May 2017
- nuclear power plants under construction
- nuclear projects being developed or planned
Nuclear power plants under construction
Countries preparing or considering new build
Nuclear capacity “under construction” – ca. 7,500 MW
Nuclear capacity “planned” – between 10,000 - 20,000 MW
Countries preparing or considering new build*:
Bulgaria Czech Republic Finland France Hungary Poland Romania UK
Nuclear power plants under construction
Countries preparing or considering new build
Nuclear capacity “under construction” – ca. 7,500 MW
Nuclear capacity “planned” – between 10,000 - 20,000 MW
All nuclear projects, have been cleared by EC, in line with the objectives of the EURATOM Treaty and will be carried out.
Each MS has the right to choose nuclear as part of its energy mix in line with the objectives of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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Key challenges at EU level
EU energy & climate goals:CO2 emissions goals vs. RES goals
EC 2050 low-carbon strategy vs. Sustainable Financing Challenge
Balance of powerpronuclear vs. antinuclear countries
New build projects facing opposition by selected EU members
Future of the Euratom Treaty
UK leaving the EU (Brexit)
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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EU Energy Policy Focus
Cutting GHG
emissions
Limiting the number
of fossil fuel power
plants
Contribution to the Paris Agreement
Robust EU-ETS system
Affordable energy for consumers
New opportunities
for growth and jobs
Security of energy supply
Reducing dependence on energy imports
Increasing the share of RES
Helping RES integrate into the system (network stability & flexibility)
EU Energy Policy
ROLE FOR NUCLEAR
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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Nuclear energy in the EC strategy (Nov 2018)
EC Communication*:
“Renewables together with nuclear energy will be
the backbone of a carbon-free European power system”
EC in-depth analysis**:
• Nuclear will remain an important component in the EU 2050 energy mix• Capacity of nuclear in 2050 – between 99-121 GW• Share of nuclear in the electricity mix in 2050 – ca. 15%• “The consumption of natural gas is expected to be severely reduced by 2050 in all scenarios”
• “In the baseline, hydrogen use develops only as a niche application for road transport and industry”
Authors of the strategy referred directly to the study commissioned by FORATOM
* https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/docs/pages/com_2018_733_en.pdf** https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/docs/pages/com_2018_733_analysis_in_support_en_0.pdf
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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Nuclear Illustrative Programme, PINC 2017
*Source: PINC, European Commission, 2017, https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/nuclear_illustrative_programme_pinc_-_may_2017_en.pdf
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Nuclear capacity (GW)
Current capacity w/o LTO Operating in LTO New build needed to mainain nuclear share
‘Under construction & planned’ capacity ‘Optimum’ scenario‘Under construction’ capacity
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• The European initiative and the associated action plan dedicated to"Financing sustainable development", March 2018 brought bothoptimism and concern among the nuclear industry
• Appropriate action plan to limit global warming to well below 2 ° C,
• The opinion of the industry - nuclear energy is, and must be, a determiningcomponent of policies and strategies, built on the objectives ofdecarbonisation, security in supply and sustainable development.
• The analyzes, studies and strategies produced by international institutionsand organizations (EC, IPCC, IEA / OECD, IAEA, JRC, etc.) bringarguments in favor of the industry's position.
https://ec.europa.eu/transparency/regdoc/rep/1/2018/EN/COM-2018-97-F1-EN-MAIN-PART-1.PDF
European initiative "Financing sustainable development"
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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• Proposals for EC regulations, within the initiative "Financing sustainable development", May 2019, co-decision EP / CONS:
i. The establishment of a framework to facilitate sustainable investment
ii. Disclosures relating to sustainable investments and sustainability risks and amendingDirective (EU) 2016/2341
iii. Amending Regulation (EU) 2016/1011 on low carbon benchmarks and positive carbonimpact benchmarks , including the associated ANNEX
• The ECON and ENVI / EP amendments to (i) art. 6.1) and d), discriminates against nuclear projects:
• Removing” …climate-neutral energy (including carbon-neutral energy),…..”, maintings only “renewable energy”, and
adding “in line with the Renewable Energy Directive” (art. 6.1 a);
• Removing ” …. switching to use of renewable materials”, replacing with “ …. Switching to or increasing the use of
environmentally sustainable renewable materials based on a full life cycle assessment ….”, but practically excluding all non-renewable technologies;
• We may here effects on the applications of the future advanced nuclear technologies.
• The Finnish Presidency has initiated a compromise text to mitigate the EP's intervention
EC package on sustainable financing
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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• EC proposal and EP amendments, Jan. 2019, do not exclude nuclear energy
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2018%3A439%3AFIN
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-8-2019-0026_EN.pdf?redirect
InvestEU Programme
• InvestEU objective is to group all EU funding programs, continuing the Juncker investment plan for Europe.
- Public and private funds- InvestEU will provide guarantees of 38 bn. EURO- eventually it will invest more than 650 billion euros over a seven-year period
• Incadrarea Proiectelor în una dintre cele patru categorii:
- sustainable infrastructure- Research, innovation and digitisation;- Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)- Social investment and skills
• The negotiating mandate of the CONS, Feb. 2019, Annex 5 (new), Section B - Excluded Activities, point 11) provides: decommissioning, exploitation, adaptation or construction of nuclear power plants.
• https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/38254/st06685-en19.pdf
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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FTI CL Study: 3 nuclear scenarios
3 nuclear scenarios:1. High – 150 GW, share ~25% (maintaining the current one)2. Medium – 103 GW, share ~15% (in line with the EC strategy)3. Low – 36 GW, share ~4%
The study assesses the impact of each scenario on the key dimensions of Europe’s energy policy:
1. security of supply 2. sustainability 3. economics
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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FTI CL Study: Benefits of having a 25% nuclear share in 2050*
Sustainability Energy security Economy
High residual investment value (avoiding reducing the value by €1 trillion)
Mitigation of the cost impact of the low-carbon transition on customer cost by €350bn
Reducing network & balancing costs by 160bn€
Positive & significant impact on jobs, GDP, revenues, etc.
Allowing the EU to meet its climate goals
700 million t. of CO2 avoided per year (it emits 30x less CO2 than gas, 65x less than coal, 3x less than solar)
Compliance with air qualitystandards
No need for vast volumes of land / raw materials
85-90% capacity factor = a reliable source of electricity
Decreased dependence on fossil fuels imports
System flexibility much needed to support the RES developments
Limited reliance on yet-to-be-proven technologies
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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Deloitte Study, May 2019
NUCLEAR ENERGY: POWERING THE ECONOMYCARBON-FREE GROWTH, JOBS AND LEADERSHIP IN INNOVATION
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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Deloitte Study: Key findings
2019 Impact of the nuclear sector on EU economy
1,129,900* numbers of jobs
47% of the total numbers of jobs in the nuclear sector are highly skilled, equaling a number of 531,900
€507.4 bn in EU GDP, which equals – 3-3.5% share of 2019 EU GDP
€383.1 bn disposable household incomes
€124.2 bn public revenues generated through tax payments
€1,092.3 bn investments undertaken in the EU
€18.1 bn trade surplus within the EU
*This figure does not include the full spectrum of jobs in fission R&D, therefore the actual number is even higher…
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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Deloitte Study: Nuclear energy’s economic impact
*Deloitte study “Nuclear energy: powering the economy – carbon-free growth, jobs and leadership in innovation** Other = Ireland, Denmark, Greece, Slovenia, Luxembourg, Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Cyprus, Malta combined
2019 2050
• 1,129,900 jobs in the EU• €507.4 billion in EU GDP
• 1,321,600 jobs in the EU• €576 billion in EU GDP*
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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#NuclearEuropeLeaders Manifesto
In June 2019, senior representatives from the nuclear industry signed a joined manifesto* highlighting what needs to be done to achieve a decarbonised Europe by 2050, whilst at the same time maintaining growth & jobs.
The leaders call upon EU policymakers to work with them to overcome the current challenges.
*Link to the manifesto: https://www.foratom.org/downloads/nucleareuropeleaders-manifesto/?wpdmdl=42821&refresh=5d1325036107c1561535747
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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#NuclearEuropeLeaders Manifesto
Nuclear industry will strive to:Deliver the required volume of capacity on time & competitive
costUndertake R&D and innovation activities in EuropeContribute to ensuring security of energy supplyContinue to manage used nuclear fuel & wasteInvest in & maintain human capitalBuild a strong European foundation to export nuclear
technologies & skills to overseas markets
EU institutions should:Agree an ambitious net-zero CO2 emissions targetEnsure a coherent, consistent & stable EU policy
frameworkIncentivizes investments in all competitive, low carbon
optionsSupport a stable low carbon energy mixDevelop & implement a strong industrial strategySupport human competences
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• Technological neutrality – has to be the main pillar of EU policies for decarbonisation andensuring fair competitive principles for all energy sources, the energy mix being the solutioncapable of ensuring sustainable development for all Member States.
• Excluding nuclear energy from sustainable growth initiatives would mean that this industry,including advanced technology developments, which Romania is analyzing, is not eligible forsustainable funding or loans at preferential rates, with negative effects on reaching targets.assumed for 2050.
• Renewable and nuclear energy sources need to be developed in a rational energy mix,combined with other measures such as increasing the degree of electrification, energy efficiency,energy storage, hydrogen or carbon capture and storage technologies.
• Ensuring the financing of research activities for the development of advanced nuclear powergeneration technologies, is crucial in the move to a new generation of reactors, with a high level ofnuclear safety, having increased flexibility in operation.
CONCLUZII
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• TEG, iulie 2018 – este format din 35 de membri (societatea civilă, mediul academic, afaceri și din sectorul financiar, observatori)
Grupul de experti tehnici (TEG) in domeniul finantarii durabile
Technical Report 2019 by the Technical Expert Group on Sustainable Finance, July 2019, https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/business_economy_euro/banking_and_finance/documents/190618-sustainable-finance-teg-report-taxonomy_en.pdf
• TEG se concentreaza pe subiectele urmatoare:- un sistem de clasificare al UE (taxonomie) – al activitatilor economice durabile;- un standard european de obligațiuni verzi (Green Bond Standard);
- metodologii pentru referințele climatice ale UE și dezvăluirea referințelor; și
- îmbunătățirea sistemului dezvăluirii informațiilor corporative referitoare la climă.
• Raportul TEG, in consultare publica, termen 13 septembrie 2019:- apreciaza ca ”producerea energiei nucleare are aproape zero emisii de GES în
faza de generare a energiei si poate fi un contributor la atingerea obiectivelor de mediu” …..
- …. dar, ”nu recomanda includerea energiei nucleare în Taxonomie în această
etapă”, din lipsa de competenta- In final, Raportul recomanda, o evaluare tehnica mai extinsa ”de către un grup cu
expertiză tehnică aprofundată privind tehnologiile ciclului de viață nuclear și
impactul existent și potențial asupra mediului pentru toate obiectivele”!
www.foratom.org | [email protected] |
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• ”Politica BEI de creditare a energiei. Sprijinirea transformării in energie”,
iulie 2019, https://www.eib.org/attachments/draft-energy-lending-policy-26-07-19-en.pdf
- abordare neutra din punct de vedere tehnologic: ”criteriile BEI ar trebui să
respecte neutralitatea tehnologică, respectând diferite mixuri de energie în statelemembre”
- energia nucleara este inclusa in catergoria tehnologiilor care conduc catre tintede emisii zero, alaturi de eficienta energetica, mobilitatea nepoluanta,decarbonizarea sistemelor de incalzire, captarea si stocarea carbonului.
Banca Europeana pentru Investitii (BEI)
• ” Aceasta abordare, neutra tehnologic, reprezinta un semnal pozitiv pentruindustria nucleara si o recunoastere a rolului acesteia in calea catre oplaneta curata.
• Documentul BEI a rezultat in urma unei ample consultari publice(contributii din Romania: Transgaz si ROMATOM), https://www.eib.org/attachments/draft-consultation-report-en.pdf
• Documentul este supus aprobarii Consiliului de Administratie BEI
din 10 septembrie 2019