NWS Role in Hazmat Release Incidents and Preparing for the 2019 Hurricane Season

Dan Reilly

KHOU

Information Exchange NWS           Incident Command

IC/Responder notifies NWS of incident, provides location and, if known, chemical type, amount, size/type of container, size of hole, release rate, current winds (if known)

NWS can provide wind estimates and wind and weather forecast going forward; can be provided in hourly tabular format (spot forecast)

If requested, NWS can provide dispersion model output (plumes) based on known information; if chemical data not known, can run a “generic mass” to give an idea of the plume direction but concentration numbers will not be meaningful

Ideal Timeline NWS           Responder

Provide current wind speed and direction, phone briefing; spot forecast

Emergency message through the Emergency Alert System 

HYSPLIT plume modelling on request; can provide weather inputs for partner modelling

Available to discuss model results or anything else related to weather

National Weather Service Roles in Incident

Incident MeteorologistFor more prolonged incident can deploy a meteorologist to the ICP (or EOC) on request if available; this was done for Texas City Y spill, Deer Park release, etc.

Spot Forecast for ITC...Pasadena EMCNational Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX128 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National WeatherService.

.DISCUSSION...Cool weather with high pressure over northern portions of Texas will keep northeasterly flow in place through Monday. Clouds will spread in from the southwest and west at times. Warmer weather will be on tap by mid week withthe dry conditions continuing. 

Comments: Mixing heights will decrease quickly after sunset. A weak inversionshould force mixing heights to fall below 1000 feet between 7‐9 PM. This could trap the smoke closer to the surface with little in the way of dispersion. Mixing heights will increase gain on Monday with daytime heating. No fog or thunderstorms are expected over the next 24 hours.

.REST OF TODAY...TIME (CDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  Weather cov.....None...........                Weather type....None...........            Tstm cov........None...........                CWR.............0   0   0   0   Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   Temp............62  64  65  65  RH..............33  31  30  31  Aparnt tmp (F)..62  64  65  65  Surface wnd dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  Surface wnd spd.8   8   8   6   Surface wnd gst.12  9   9   8   Mix hgt (kft)...4.9 4.8 4.4 3.9 Mix hgt (km)....1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  Transp wind spd.12  10  9   9   Trans wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  Trans spd (m/s).5   4   4   4  

.TONIGHT...TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky cover.......MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  Weather cov.....None..........................................                 Weather type....None..........................................                 Tstm cov........None..........................................                 CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   Temp............65  63  60  59  58  55  54  53  52  52  50  49  RH..............33  38  44  47  53  59  61  64  66  66  71  71  Aparnt tmp (F)..65  63  60  59  58  55  54  53  52  52  48  47  Surface wnd dir.E   E   E   E   E   NE  N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  Surface wnd spd.5   5   3   1   1   1   3   4   5   5   5   5   Surface wnd gst.7   7                       5   7   7   7   7   Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Mix hgt (km)....1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   Transp wind spd.9   9   10  10  12  12  13  13  14  14  15  16  Trans wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   Trans spd (m/s).4   4   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   7   7   

First Spot Forecast Supporting Incident, requested by Pasadena EMC; These are requested over phone or weather.gov/spot by authorized officials

HYSPLIT Dispersion Model• Best for large, longer duration releases of neutrally buoyant 

gases or particulates (good for Deer Park smoke plume)• Better for transport beyond 1 km and best beyond 10 km• Not intended for dense gases• Uses weather model winds to show changes in wind both 

spatially and temporally• HYSPLIT is most familiar with NWS forecasters• For small releases and dense gases Cameo/ALOHA may be a 

better choice; many local jurisdictions, fire depts, hazmat teams use Cameo/ALOHA or something similar?

Example HYSPLIT Run Output from Run Initiated 10 pm Sunday Evening

Cameo/ALOHA Model• Best for smaller releases of neutrally buoyant gases or dense gases

• Transport of gases restricted to 6 miles or less• Release duration of 1 hour or less• Winds are steady state for the 1 hour duration• First responders familiar with Cameo/Aloha• Accuracy highly dependent on quantity and 

specific chemical • We will use Cameo/ALOHA for today’s exercise 

(good planning tool as well!)

Ammonia Release, Texas CityCameo/ALOHA example

Preparing for 2019 Hurricane Season

Hurricane Season Frequency Map

We are here

Hurricane and Tropical Storm frequency in Atlantic for different times of year

Notice things really ramp up in August then fall off in October

Peak of the season for Texas late August and September but can get June storms

Hurricane Hazards1. Storm surge flooding2. Damaging winds3. Flooding rains4. Tornadoes

Alicia. 1983

Harvey, 2017Harvey, 2017

Ike, 2008Damaging Winds

Tornadoes

Storm Surge Flooding

Flooding Rains

The Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Scale based on maximum sustained winds typically in eyewall of hurricane

Only partially related to storm surge threat, not related at all to tornado or flooding rain threats

Scale is not a good measure of storm severity! Need to factor in all hazards.

Hurricane Ike View from Radar

Spiral Bands: Can contain tornadoes, gusty winds, heavy rain

Eye Wall

Highest winds typically in the eyewall of the hurricane

Wind, surge and tornado threat all greater on the right hand side of the storm (relative to the track)

Sometimes referred to as the “dirty side” of the storm

Rappaport, Edward N., 2014: Fatalities in the United States from Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: New Data and Interpretation

Cause of death in the United States directly attributable to Atlantic tropical cyclones, 1963–2012.

Percentage of 1963–2012 Atlantic tropical cyclones (right scale) and deadly U.S. tropical cyclones (left scale) in which noted types of fatalities occurred in the United States.

The Water Related Hazards are the Most Deadly

2018 Season● 15 named storms, 8

hurricanes, 2 major (cat 3 or greater)

● Long term average 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major so season a little more active than average

● Biggest impacts were from Hurricanes Michael and Florence

Hurricane Michael

● Rapidly developing Gulf storm with little time to prepare; landfall as a category 5 (only 1 of 4 in recorded history for U.S.)

● Strongest winds at landfall since Andrew in 1992

● Deadly winds and storm surge along Florida panhandle; wind impacts well inland

weather.gov/hgx@NWSHouston

Examples of Category 5 SSHWS Damage

Hurricane Michael, 2018

Hurricane Andrew, 1992

Michael and Harvey Comparison

Both made landfall as high category hurricanes after period of rapid intensification over Gulf of Mexico

Can get high category storms with just a few days notice with these Gulf developers

How many days do you need to prepare for hurricane impacts? How would you manage such a short notice storm (2 or 3 days)?

Tropical Weather Outlook: 2-day

hurricanes.gov

● Describes the chance a disturbance will develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 48 hours

● “X” marks current center position (estimated)

● Percent likelihood is given

● There is also a mouseover text discussion for more details

Tropical Weather Outlook: 5-day● Describes the chance a

disturbance will develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 5 days

● “X” marks current center position (estimated)

● Hatched area is the zone where that development could occur

● There is also a mouseover text discussion for more details and to get the percentage chance

● Gives additional lead time...no need to wait until storm has formed

Forecast Cone● Describes the most likely

track of the center of the storm; two-thirds of time track of center will track within cone based on past 5 years of data.

● It is NOT an impact cone; significant impacts can and do occur outside the cone (especially flooding rains and surge) even if center is within the cone

Time of Arrival GraphicBased on different possible scenarios what is the most likely time and earliest time TS winds might arrive? In this example TS winds mostly likely at FL coast Wed morning but could arrive as early as Tues evening

Probability of TS and Hurricane Force WindsBased on different possible scenarios what is the relative probability will see TS or Hurricane force winds at any point? In this example highest chances on FL panhandle but pretty high from AL to Tampa FL

What Actually Occurred?TS winds in orange, hurricane force winds in brown; compares well with forecast probabilities in this case

Atlantic/Gulf 2019 Hurricane Forecast

Company/Organization

#Named Storms

#Hurricanes #Major Hurricanes Accumulated Cyclone Energy(ACE)

CSU 13 5 2 80

NOAA 9-15 4-8 2-4 (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median

30 yr averages1981-2010

12.1 6.4 2.7 106

Fairly close to “average” for overall numbers; can’t tell if Texas will be hit

https://tropical.colostate.edu/https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

Useful NWS Websites, Social Media

● National Weather Service Houston○ Web: weather.gov/houston○ Twitter: @NWSHouston○ Facebook and Youtube: NWSHouston

● National Hurricane Center○ Web: hurricanes.gov○ Twitter: @NHCAtlantic, @NWSNHC○ Facebook: NWSNHC\

● Dan.Reilly@noaa.gov