objectives diurnal cycle of convection forecasting ... science … · [email protected] pdfof this...

Objectives [email protected] pdf of this poster Multiscale interactions between the MJO, equatorial waves, and the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent Carl J. Schreck III 1 , Anantha Aiyyer 1 , Ademe Mekonnen 2 1 North Carolina State University, 2 North Carolina A&T University NASA PMM Science Team Meeting 24–28 October 2016, Houston TX NASA PMM Grant NNX16AE33G Diurnal Cycle of Convection Forecasting Convective Envelopes MJO’s propagation across the Maritime Continent is a major subseasonal predictability problem. • How do equatorial waves modulate diurnal cycle of convection over the Maritime Continent? • What role do equatorial waves play in the MJO’s transition across the Maritime Continent? • How well do numerical models like the CFS predict equatorial waves over the Maritime Continent? ISCCP IR weather states (IR-WS) identify eight cloud regimes based on their cloud-top pressure (CTP) and their corresponding IR-regime in the ISCCP D1 data. IR-WS1 (left) corresponds to well organized convection (i.e., MCS) and IR-WS3 (right) represents isolated cumulonimbus or cumulus congestus clouds. The diurnal cycles of these IR-WS data will be compared with TRMM Precipitation Feature (PF) data over the Maritime Continent. Hypothesis 1: • Like the MJO, equatorial waves favor upscale growth of convection • However, their shorter periods reduce the interaction with the diurnal cycle Task 1: • Identify the diurnal cycle of convection in each phase of Kelvin and Equatorial Rossby waves • Compare results with ISCCP, TRMM PF, and TRMM/IMERG rainfall Hypothesis 2: • The population of equatorial waves dictates which MJO events traverse the Maritime Continent • Being less sensitive to the diurnal cycle, equatorial waves provide a bridge for the MJO Task 2: • Compare wave variance between MJOs that do or do not propagate across Maritime Continent Hypothesis 3: • The CFS is more skillful at forecasting the convective envelopes of the MJO and equatorial waves than actual rainfall Task 3: • Filter CFS Reforecast to create retrospective forecasts of OLR and rainfall • Examine anomaly correlations with observed data Hypothesis 4: • The CFS skill at forecasting the MJO, equatorial waves, and the diurnal cycle are all correlated with each other Task 4: • Identify good and bad forecasts of the MJO over the Maritime Continent • Compare the wave activity, wave forecasts, and diurnal cycles between each Hovmöller of total rainfall (shading). MJO (blue), equatorial Rossby waves (magenta), and Kelin waves (red) are contoured. Vertical dashed lines outline the Maritime Continent Homoller counts of ISCCP Weather States (WS) of MCSs (left) and disorganized convection (right). Example forecast Hovmöllers of OLR anomalies (shading) and filtered wave modes. (left) Observations are appended with climatological values for filtered (Wheeler and Wieckmann 2000). (right) Observations are appended with CFS forecasts. ncics.org/mjo

Upload: others

Post on 08-Oct-2020

2 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

Report

Download

Embed Size (px):

TRANSCRIPT

Objectives

[email protected] pdf ofthisposter

MultiscaleinteractionsbetweentheMJO,equatorialwaves,andthediurnalcycleovertheMaritimeContinent

CarlJ.Schreck III1,Anantha Aiyyer1,Ademe Mekonnen21NorthCarolinaStateUniversity,2NorthCarolinaA&TUniversity

NASAPMMScienceTeamMeeting24–28October2016,HoustonTX

NASAPMMGrantNNX16AE33G

DiurnalCycleofConvection ForecastingConvectiveEnvelopes

MJO’spropagationacrosstheMaritimeContinentisamajorsubseasonal predictabilityproblem.

• HowdoequatorialwavesmodulatediurnalcycleofconvectionovertheMaritimeContinent?

• WhatroledoequatorialwavesplayintheMJO’stransitionacrosstheMaritimeContinent?

• HowwelldonumericalmodelsliketheCFSpredictequatorialwavesovertheMaritimeContinent?

ISCCP IR weather states (IR-WS) identify eight cloud regimes based on theircloud-top pressure (CTP) and their corresponding IR-regime in the ISCCP D1data. IR-WS1 (left) corresponds to well organized convection (i.e., MCS) andIR-WS3 (right) represents isolated cumulonimbus or cumulus congestusclouds. The diurnal cycles of these IR-WS data will be compared with TRMMPrecipitation Feature (PF) data over the Maritime Continent.

Hypothesis1:• LiketheMJO,equatorialwaves

favorupscalegrowthofconvection• However,theirshorterperiods

reducetheinteractionwiththediurnalcycle

Task1:• Identifythediurnalcycleof

convectionineachphaseofKelvinandEquatorialRossby waves

• CompareresultswithISCCP,TRMMPF,andTRMM/IMERGrainfall

Hypothesis2:• Thepopulationofequatorialwaves

dictateswhichMJOeventstraversetheMaritimeContinent

• Beinglesssensitivetothediurnalcycle,equatorialwavesprovideabridgefortheMJO

Task2:• Comparewavevariancebetween

MJOsthatdoordonotpropagateacrossMaritimeContinent

Hypothesis3:• TheCFSismoreskillfulat

forecastingtheconvectiveenvelopesoftheMJOandequatorialwavesthanactualrainfall

Task3:• FilterCFSReforecastto

createretrospectiveforecastsofOLRandrainfall

• Examineanomalycorrelationswithobserveddata

Hypothesis4:• TheCFSskillatforecasting

theMJO,equatorialwaves,andthediurnalcycleareallcorrelatedwitheachother

Task4:• Identifygoodandbad

forecastsoftheMJOovertheMaritimeContinent

• Comparethewaveactivity,waveforecasts,anddiurnalcyclesbetweeneach

Hovmöller oftotalrainfall(shading).MJO(blue),equatorialRossbywaves(magenta),andKelin waves(red)arecontoured.Vertical

dashedlinesoutlinetheMaritimeContinent

Homoller countsofISCCPWeatherStates(WS)ofMCSs(left)anddisorganizedconvection(right).

ExampleforecastHovmöllers ofOLRanomalies(shading)andfilteredwavemodes.(left)Observationsareappendedwithclimatologicalvaluesforfiltered(WheelerandWieckmann 2000).(right)ObservationsareappendedwithCFS

forecasts.

ncics.org/mjo

Soe mjo 6.8

Nocternal Diurnal

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) Modulation of Atmospheric ......Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) Modulation of Atmospheric Circulation and Chilean Winter Precipitation BRADFORD

Diurnal Temperature Fluctuations

The MJO and Arctic Air Temperatures

Jeni Corn, Ph.D., [email protected]@ncsu.edu Trip Stallings, Ph.D., [email protected]@ncsu.edu Friday Institute, NC State University

Hyodae Seo Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Art Miller, Aneesh … · 2013-10-28 · Predictability and Coupled Dynamics of MJO during DYNAMO: Role of diurnal SST in the initiation

Curriculum Vitae For Erich Kaltofen - ncsu.edu

Diurnal and Nocturnal Animals. Diurnal Animals Diurnal is a tricky word! Let’s all say that word together. Diurnal [dahy-ur-nl] A diurnal animal is an

Multi-model MJO forecasting during DYNAMO/CINDY period...Multi-model MJO forecasting during DYNAMO/CINDY period Xiouhua Fu ... Section 3 documents the overall MJO forecasting skills