outlook for global rcp markets - fastmarkets risi · • trade dispute between china and the usa...

2019 | Fastmarkets | Outlook for Global RCP Markets

August 2019

David FortinVP, FiberFastmarkets RISI

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Outlook for Global RCP MarketsThe impacts of Chinese import regulations

Chinese RCP import regulations

55%

2017-2019 YTD

• National Sword 2017 and Blue Sky 2018

• Mixed paper ban

• Announced in July 2017, took effect at the end of 2017

• New 0.5% contaminant standard

• Took effect at the beginning of 2018

• Trade dispute between China and the USA

• Duty on US RCP (25%) and US recycled pulp (10-20%) …

• Inspection and pre-inspection regulations: New rules about CCIC…

• In total, 18 million tonnes of RCP import permits were issued for 2018, compared to 28 million tonnes for 2017

• So far, 9.9 million tonnes of import licenses have been issued for 2019


Impacts of Chinese RCP import regulations

55%

• Change of global RCP trade pattern

• Sharp decline in Chinese imports and surge of imports from Other Asia

• Decline of exports for most RCP exporting countries/regions

• RCP cost and availability

• China: Higher RCP costs and recycled fiber shortage

• Outside of China: Increasing RCP availability and low RCP costs

• Impacts on overall pulp and paper industry

• China: Declining finished paper and board (PAB) output and rising PAB imports

• Outside of China: Opportunities for new recycled pulp and PAB projects

Of world RCP consumptio


Chinese RCP importsMillion tonnes

SHARP DROP IN 2018 AND 2019

• New contamination standard and new inspection and pre-inspection rules lowered Chinese imports sharply in 2018 and the first half of 2019

• Total Chinese imports dropped by 34% from 25.7 million tonnes in 2017 to 17 million tonnes in 2018

• Chinese imports continued to fall, by 16% year-over-year in the first five months of 2019


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Chinese RCP importsMillion tonnes

CHANGING IMPORT SOURCE• North America and Europe were impacted

significantly by Chinese import regulations

• US share of Chinese imports fell sharply from 45% in 2016-2017 to 37% in 2018-2019

• European share of Chinese imports dropped from about 30% in 2016-2017 to 27% in 2018-2019

• Chinese imports from Japan increased in 2018 and so far 2019

• Jan-May 2019: Chinese imports from the USA and Western Europe fell by 32% and 14% year-over-year, respectively, while those from Japan and Australia increased by 6% and 50%

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2016 2017 2018USA Japan UK Other Europe Other Asia Canada Oceania Other


Other Asian RCP net importsMillion tonnes

SURGE IN IMPORTS• This region’s net imports surged from 7.2

million tonnes in 2016 to 13.8 million tonnes in 2018

• Most countries and regions in Other Asia registered a significant increase in imports in 2016-2018

• There is growing RCP demand and increasing availability of low-cost RCP from the major exporting regions thanks to the decline in Chinese imports

• This region’s import growth slowed somewhat in the first half of 2019

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India Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Taiwan SouthKorea

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China and Other Asia: RCP imports Million tonnes

OTHER ASIA CATCHING UP WITH CHINA

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2012 2014 2016 2017 2018China Other Asia


US RCP exportsMillion tonnes

CHANGING EXPORT DESTINATIONS• Exports to China dropped 31% in 2018 and

the Chinese share of US exports declined from 60% in 2017 to 40% in 2018

• Shipments to Other Asia soared 80% in 2018 and the share of Other Asia in US exports jumped from 23% in 2017 to 40% in 2018

• Exports to Central and South America increased by about 7% in 2018

• Jan-May 2019: US exports dropped by 3% year-over-year; exports to China fell by 25%, while those to Other Asia increased by about 16%; exports to Central and South America slipped by 4% year-over-year

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2017 2018 Jan-May 2019China India Mexico Indonesia South KoreaVietnam Taiwan Thailand Canada Other


European RCP exportsMillion tonnes

CHANGING EXPORT DESTINATIONS• Western European net exports fell by about

12% in 2018

• Exports to China plummeted 39% in 2019

• Chinese share of European exports declined from 78% in 2016 to 41% in 2018

• Shipments to Other Asia surged 71% in 2018 and the Other Asia share of European exports rose sharply from 16% in 2016 to 50% in 2018

• 1Q2019: Western European exports increased by 4% year-over-year; exports to China increased by 9%, while those to Other Asia increased by about 16%

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2016 2017 2018China India IndonesiaVietnam Thailand TaiwanSouth Korea Eastern Europe Other


OCC prices in different regions

CHINESE PAPER COMPANIES FACING HIGH RECYCLED FIBER COSTS• Before July 2017, one set of OCC prices

• Now, two sets of prices: Chinese price and prices outside of China

• Sharp drop in US and European OCC prices

• Low OCC import prices in Southeast Asia

• Domestically collected OCC became quite expensive in China due to the overall recycled fiber shortage issue in 2018

• Recent decline in OCC prices globally because of the weak paper packaging markets and reduction in Asian RCP purchases

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2016 2017 2018 2019US average, USD/tonne (L)German OCC, EUR/tonne (L)Chinese imported #12, USD/tonne (L)Asian imported US OCC, USD/tonne (L)Chinese domestic, RMB/tonne (R)


China: RCP imports and domestic collectionMillion tonnes

SHARP DECLINE IN IMPORT SHARE• Improvements in domestic collection driven

by growing demand and high prices for domestic RCP

• Better quality standards and specifications to be established, led by Chinese paper companies and associations

• Further growth in a domestic-consumption-driven economy: More paper packaging materials will stay and be collected within China

• Supports from private sectors and the governments

• Overall, there is still some room for more domestic RCP collection but limited room for a higher recovery rate

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2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018Domestic collection Imports


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31%35%38%

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China’s surging recycled pulp importsThousand tonnes

SURGE IN RECYCLED PULP IMPORTS• About 5 million tonnes of recycled pulp

capacity was announced in the USA and Other Asia, but how much of this will start up as planned?

• No well-established quality standard or specifications for imported recycled pulp

• Will China have restrictions on recycled pulp imports in the future?

• Risks associated with recycled pulp investments

• Uncertainty surrounding Chinese RCP import policies

• Increase in virgin pulp imports will not help much to solve China’s fiber shortage issue


2017 2018 Jan-May 2019Total 11.91 302.52 200.93

% change -5% 2,441% 250%

Taiwan 0.42 110.50 92.37

Vietnam 0.00 96.83 34.88

Malaysia 0.23 20.17 18.84

Russia 0.00 15.13 14.85

USA 1.84 1.63 21.36

Germany 6.83 23.12 9.34

South Korea 0.10 3.97 2.78

India 0.00 17.65 2.47

Other 2.49 13.52 1.29

China’s investments in recycled pulp

ANNOUNCED AND ESTIMATED RECYCLED PULP PROJECTS


• Nine Dragons

• Fairmont, USA: About 220,000 tonnes per year (started up already)

• Biron, USA: 650,000 tonnes per year

• Rumford, USA: About 400,000 tonnes per year

• India: 500,000 tonnes

• Lee & Man

• Myanmar: 680,000 tonnes per year

• Malaysia: 550,000 tonnes per year

• Sun Paper: Laos: 400,000 tonnes per year

• Jingxing Paper: Malaysia: 550,000 tonnes per year

• Shanying

• Wickliffe, USA: 120,000 tonnes per year

• Malaysia: 550,000 tonnes per year

• Other

China’s falling paper and board outputMillion tonnes

RECYCLED FIBER SHORTAGE• Resulted in production declines of

paper and board grades with high RCP usage in 2018

• Also, demand softness because of slowing economic growth

• Higher environmental standards

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2015 2016 2017 2018Containerboard Cartonboard Newsprint


China’s increasing paper and board net importsMillion tonnes

• Accelerating imports for containerboard and newsprint in 2017-2018

• Where did Chinese imports come from?

• Other Asia, North America and Europe

• Where will China buy more from in the future?

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Containerboard Cartonboard Newsprint


Other Asia’s growing containerboard output and exportsMillion tonnes

INCREASE IN EXPORTS TO CHINA • Growing domestic demand and

exports to China

• Rising operating rates and new containerboard capacities

• Chinese paper companies’ investments in Other Asia

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Output Net exports


Chinese RCP import regulations 2019 and beyond

55%2019

• How many more import licenses will China issue for the rest of 2019?

• Where is the trade dispute between the USA and China heading?

2020 AND BEYOND

• Will we see another sharp cut in import permits in 2020?

• Will China ban imports of all RCP grades by the end of 2020?


Other Asia: RCP import regulations and others

55%

WILL OTHER ASIA FOLLOW CHINA?

• Quality and environmental concerns over RCP imports

• Taiwan started to limit imports of low-quality RCP in late 2018

• Some countries have import license systems, inspection and pre-inspection measures, or new quality standards

• Vietnam

• Indonesia: announced stringent restrictions on RCP imports in Spring 2019

• Port congestion issues

• How will imports impact local RCP collection? We saw a considerable decline in the local paper recovery rate in 2018

• Future: Steady increase in RCP imports driven by growing demand


OCC prices in Latin America

BRAZIL WAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE MARKET MOVEMENTS IN ASIA OR NORTH AMERICA• Mexico: OCC prices follow US prices

very closely as Mexico imports a large amount of OCC from the USA

• Brazil: OCC market was not particularly impacted by the developments in the Chinese or US markets; Brazil is not a big buyer or seller of RCP

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US average, USD/tonne (L) Mexican OCC, USD/tonne (L)Chinese imported #12, USD/tonne (L) Brazil OCC, BRL/tonne (R)


Latin America: RCP demand and net importsMillion tonnes

IMPORT INCREASE IN 2018• Net import accounts for about 8% of this

region’s total RCP demand

• Mexico is the largest RCP net importer in this region

• Latin American net imports increased by about 30% in 2018 but the increase in imports slowed in the first half of 2019

• Chinese RCP import regulations had limited direct impacts on Latin American RCP markets

• More impacts through pulp markets?

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Domestic collection Imports


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Thank you!

For more information:

Outlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets, 2017www.risi.com/GlobalRCP

OCC/UKP Market Analysis and Outlookwww.risi.com/OCC-UKP

The China Recovered Paper Market: A Comprehensive Analysis and Outlookwww.risi.com/ChinaRCP

World Pulp and Recovered Paper Forecasts, 5- & 15-yearwww.risi.com/forecasts

World Recovered Paper Monitorwww.risi.com/WRPM


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