Overview and Methodology

Poverty Environment Nexus (PEN) study

World BankMagda Lovei, Jostein Nygard

and Rob Swinkels

Overview and Methodology

Presentation Presentation OverviewOverview

1. Why Focus on PEN in Vietnam2. Methodology3. Poverty Indicators4. Environment Indicators 5. Linkages between Poverty and

Environment6. Selection Criteria and Program Structure

1. Why Focus on PEN in Vietnam

Overview and Methodology

• Understand poverty environment linkages.

• Embed environment into poverty reduction strategies.

Objective: Study designed to identify specific project proposals addressing both poverty alleviation and environmental protection.

Why Focus on PEN in Why Focus on PEN in VietnamVietnam

Overview and Methodology

• Economic growthi) GDP growth around 7.5 percent

ii) Industrial growth at around 16 percent

ii) Foreign Direct Investment increasing at present

• Poverty Reduction

– Especially in low lands

– Poverty persists in mountainous and central highlands

Country ContextCountry Context

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Industrial Production Index (% change) GDP grow th FDI

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Total (million) Percent

Economic Growth Poverty Reduction

2. Methodology

Overview and Methodology

• A study that identifies cases where poverty reduction and environmental protection are complementary goals (win-win situations)

What is the PEN study?What is the PEN study?

Overview and Methodology

• Direction of causality typically difficult to establish

-Are poor people the main victims of degradation?

– Do poor people cause environmental degradation?

• Importance of many intervening variables (e.g., fuel choice, hygiene practices)

Analytical challenge (i)Analytical challenge (i)

Overview and Methodology

• Empirical Evidence is relatively limited

• Environmental problems tend to be related to natural resource base and thus inherently spatially defined

Analytical Challenge (ii)Analytical Challenge (ii)

Overview and Methodology

• Phase I: Modes of analysis adapted to limited data availability and quality – Correlation analysis - Mapping– Regressions - Rankings

• Phase II: Further national level analysis complements case studies (increasingly demand led)– Commune, Village, household, plot level data

collection in sample regions– Relatively small samples, not statistically

significant at higher levels of aggregation– Mix of qualitative and quantitative questions

(usually respondent assessment, not measured)

MethodologyMethodology

3. Poverty Indicators

Poverty in Vietnam at various administrative levels

the way forward

Overview and Methodology

Poverty definitionPoverty definition

• One definition: being poor is not being able to meet your basic consumption needs (food, clothes, housing etc).

• This can be measured through determining someone’s income or consumption expenditure

• Non-monetary poverty also important • Inequality: relative poverty

Overview and Methodology

Which data on poverty in Which data on poverty in Vietnam are reliable?Vietnam are reliable?

• The Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) is by far the best data source on poverty in Vietnam

• It uses one fixed method across the whole country

• It is internationally recognized as being top class• MoLISA poverty rates are ‘subjective’ and

cannot be compared across commune, districts or provinces. They are unreliable at the aggregate level

• And they are driven by targets set in advance

Overview and Methodology

How to determine a poverty How to determine a poverty lineline

• Identify a basket of goods that one needs in Vietnam to lead a decent live.

• The value of this set of goods is the poverty line

• This can be calculated using the VHLSS• Poverty incidence: proportion of people

who consume less than the poverty line

Overview and Methodology

Poverty lines (cont’d)Poverty lines (cont’d)

• In 2002 the GSO ‘expenditure’ poverty line was VND 160,000 per capita per month (average for both urban and rural)

• But in 2004 GSO and MoLISA jointly updated the basket of goods and agreed that the new poverty line for 2005 is– VND 200,000 (rural areas)– VND 260,000 (urban areas

Overview and Methodology

Provincial poverty rates Provincial poverty rates according to MoLISA and GSOaccording to MoLISA and GSO

Overview and Methodology

VHLSS is a sample surveyVHLSS is a sample survey

• And thus can only measure poverty at the national and provincial level.

• For sub-provincial level one can use ‘poverty mapping’ techniques

Overview and Methodology

What is poverty mapping?What is poverty mapping?

• It identifies ‘proxy-indicators’ that are closely related to consumption expenditure (education level, type of house, assets etc)

• The national census has data on proxy-indicators for everyone in Vietnam

• Thus census can be used to estimate expenditure for everyone and then estimate commune and district level poverty rates

Overview and Methodology

Poverty rates at three Poverty rates at three administrative levels using administrative levels using

poverty mappingpoverty mapping

Overview and Methodology

Poverty Poverty

densitydensity • This measures

how many poor people live in a particular area.

• It shows where in Vietnam most poor people live

Overview and Methodology

Depth of Depth of

povertypoverty • This measures how

far below the poverty line the poor are.

• The farther someone’s expenditure is below the poverty line the ‘deeper’ their poverty

Overview and Methodology

• This shows the total of the poverty gap of all poor people in an area (district)

Combining poverty Combining poverty depth & poverty depth & poverty

densitydensity

4. Environment Indicators

Overview and Methodology

• Sustainable Land Use Indicators – Forest cover, Land gradient

• Access to Water and Sanitation

• Industrial Pollution

• Indoor Air Pollution

• Outdoor Air Pollution

• Health Impacts

• Natural Disasters

Environment IndicatorsEnvironment Indicators

Overview and Methodology

• Environment data collection isn’t systematic

– National: Often based on administratively reported data rather than on independent and consistent measurement (e.g. forest cover trends from village reporting rather than from satellite interpretation)

– Regional: Mekong River Commission generates and compiles valuable base data

– Contradiction between different data sources, especially out of sectors with large- household surveys (e.g. natural resources and pollution).

– Many data gaps and often very little information over time

Challenges in data accessChallenges in data access

Overview and Methodology

Environment Indicators Environment Indicators

• Massive deforestation in last 4 decades– Agricultural

– Population

– Commercial

• Largest forest loss occurring in area with high poverty

• Poor do not benefit from commercial logging

DeforestatiDeforestation on

RateRate

Forest Forest CoverCover

5. Linkages between poverty and Environment

Overview and Methodology

Methods – Correlation Methods – Correlation AnalysisAnalysis

District-level

Rural Poverty

and Natural

Forest area

ρ = 0.45

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Percent rural poor, 1999

Pe

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Date sources:

Govt of Vietnam

Overview and Methodology

Correlation with Province-level Correlation with Province-level PovertyPoverty

0.00

0.20

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0.80

1.00

Solid fuel use No toilet facility No safe watersupply

Pollution sourcenear dug well

Overview and Methodology

Methods – Methods – Map overlays

• Elevation zones are one of several indicators where overlays with poverty are useful.

Poverty rates, 1999

Overview and Methodology

Methods – Methods – Map overlays

• Poverty rates increase with elevation, but numbers of poor are highest in low elevation areas

Overview and Methodology

Poor Area Vs Poor PeoplePoor Area Vs Poor PeopleUpland• Low poverty density

(small absolute number of poor)

• High poverty rates

• Remaining natural resources (forests, wildlife)

• Poor access to services and economic opportunities

Lowland• High poverty density

(large number of poor)

• Low poverty rates

• More dynamic economy in cities and highly dynamic rural areas

• Comparatively more severe environmental problems due to pollution and overuse of resources such as water

6. Selection Criteria and Program Structure

Overview and Methodology

• Prioritized sectors in poverty reduction plans

• Number of poor affected

• Severity of effects (income, health, vulnerability, social/cultural)

• Alleviated by national economic growth?

• Local capacity (institutional, financial)

• Cost effectiveness (including administration cost)

Selection CriteriaSelection Criteria

Overview and Methodology

Environment and Health Indicators

Estimated number of people affected

% of non-poor population % of poor population

Forest resources / Degradation

Data needed Data needed

Land Degradation Data needed Data needed

Traditional fuels/indoor air 80% >98%

Respiratory illness – Children < 5

6.5% 11.7%

Lack of safe water supply 15% 35%

Lack of sanitation 12 – 14% 21 – 24 %

Diarrheal illness – Children < 5

7.5 % 14.5 %

% employment in fisheries 2.6 % 0.5 %

Flooding (1980 – 2001) 1.3 % 1.1 %

Forest (ha per 1000 population)

13 145

Forest (ha 1000 per province)

14 98

Forest (% of total land area) 4 % 9 %

Ag output value / ha (mill Dong)

10.1 6.1

Non Poor Provinces (50 – 80 %)

Infant Mortality Rate 24 50

Flat Provinces Mountains

Poverty Incidence 28 % 54 %

Overview and Methodology

Case Study OverviewCase Study OverviewMain topics

Sub-topics Implementing Agencies

Locations of study areas

NRM (incl. land) and Poverty

1.1 Land administration, poverty and environment (particularly related to the new land law)

TECOS, (firm affiliated to MONRE).

Tuyen Quant (Northern Mountains), Nghe An (Northern Central), Binh Dinh (Central Coastal)

1.2 Natural Resource Management in Uplands

Integrated case study:Socio-economic Development Center (SEDEC), recommended by MPI

Bac Kan (Upstream in Cau River Basin)

WSS, industrial pollution, hygiene, health, and Poverty

2.1 Disproportionate health effects of contaminated/polluted water quality on poor people

Bac Ninh (Down stream in Cau River Basin)

2.2 Impact of pesticide use on different income groups.

COEH of VAOH & UOE in HCMC

6 provinces in the Mekong River delta

2.3 Poverty and Industrial pollution in Vietnam

Research Center for Energy & Environment, MONRE recommended

Data from 13 provinces, craft villages in Red River Delta

2.4 Different health effects for poor & non-poor from access to WS and IAP from fuels use.

Expert group at Hanoi Medical College, recommended by MoH

Nationwide, based upon VN National Health Survey (NHS)

Overview and Methodology

Vietnam: (Ongoing)- Land Administration – Poverty with MONRE (part case studies)

Vietnam: (Ongoing)- Land Administration – Poverty with MONRE (part case studies)

Vietnam: (TORs, design completed)-Song Cau River Baisn , upstream and downstream with MPI

Vietnam: (TORs, design completed)-Song Cau River Baisn , upstream and downstream with MPI

Vietnam: (Completed)-Pesticide use – Poverty (partly with MONRE) 6 pro-vinces in the MRD

Vietnam: (Completed)-Pesticide use – Poverty (partly with MONRE) 6 pro-vinces in the MRD

Vietnam: (TORs, design completed)-Industrial Pollution & poverty Case Studies in the Red River Basin,2nd data collection in 13 provinces

Vietnam: (TORs, design completed)-Industrial Pollution & poverty Case Studies in the Red River Basin,2nd data collection in 13 provinces

PEN Studies PEN Studies (Vietnam)(Vietnam)

Vietnam: (Ongoing)- Clean Water, Sanitation, indoor air pollution, health effects, poverty. National wide study

Vietnam: (Ongoing)- Clean Water, Sanitation, indoor air pollution, health effects, poverty. National wide study

Overview and Methodology

• Presentation of four individual PEN case studies (“green” and “brown” PEN agenda).

• Presentation of PEN case study (Song Cau) reflecting several PEN sectors.

• Discuss possible incorporation of PEN findings into SEDP and poverty reduction plans.

Agenda for the workshopAgenda for the workshop

Overview and Methodology

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