PCM (Production Cost Model) Data Work Group (PDWG) 2028 PCM _ Phase 2 Resources

Phase 2 Resource Additions

October 16, 2018

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Overview

• Building Phase 2 Switch File, covering Resources Additions to 2028 ADS PCM Changes to California Loads

• Load and Resource's Balance

• Confirmation of AESO Planned Resources

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2028 ADS PCM – Loads and Resources

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Jamie Austin

A Layered Approach to AdditionsKevin Harris

• There are two sides to determining resource needs:– Determining the supply gap– Determine how to fill the supply gap

• Potential items to consider in determining the supply gap:– Load growth- look at incremental changes (e.g., California

AAEE & AAPV)– Include announced retirements: Retirements in LAR’2018 –

Validate with Data Submitters\Regions– Layer in supply additions (e.g., start with L&R and utility IRPs

confirm with Data Submitters) –if still deficit, 1. Be willing to move supply additions forward or back to fill gap (y/n)2. Fill in supply gap with generic supply (y/n)

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Phase 2 – 2028 ADS PCM Resources Analysis

• Steps taken to build a “Switch File” independent of the ADS case, to be packaged as a supplement to ADS V2.0– Validated additional “Plant Retirements”, listed in the WECC -

March 2018 L&R Data Submittals but not in ADS V1.0

– Drew on “Replacement Resources” from the WECC - March 2018 L&R Data Submittals 1. Typically, missing Planned Resources, most likely comes from utility IRPs

2. Resources to meet legislated RPS, consistent with utility IRPs

– Worked with Data Submitters and Regions to validate added resources and to map to the bus

• PDWG and WECC staff worked jointly on validating assumptions and findings by working with Regions, Data Submitters and Stakeholders

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Next Steps

• Modify California Loads by adding the CEC Mid-Demand AAEE and AAPV (this should reduce CA loads by ~10%); model AAEE on the demand side (net CEC hourly shapes from loads) and model AAPV on the supply side (use same profiles used for BTMPV)

After updating “Retirements” and “Additions”

• Summarize Load and Resources Balance at the BAA level (RPS at State level, check for compliance)– Compare the PCM run to Resource Adequacy analysis

• Kevin Harris: If still deficit 1. Be willing to move supply additions forward or back to fill gap (y/n)?

2. Fill in supply gap with generic supply (y/n)?

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CEC - Battery Storage List (Total: 2,009 MW)

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ZONE BA Org Unit Name Unit #

Unit Type

Nameplate (MW)

Summer Cap (MW)

Winter Cap (MW)

Primary Fuel

Secondary Fuel

Status Code

State County NERC Class Code

WECC Class Code

Commission Date

Retirement Date

CIPB CISOBLACK DIAMOND ENERGY STORAGE 1 BA 200.0 200.0 200.0 MWH U CA

CONTRA COSTA T2 2 5/1/2021 12/31/2030

CIPB CISO COLINAS DE ORO 1 BA 30.0 30.0 30.0 MWH U CA ALAMEDA T2 2 10/31/2018 12/31/2030

CIPV CISOBEAR CANYON ENERGY STORAGE 1 BA 13.0 13.0 13.0 MWH U CA LAKE T2 2 9/1/2021 12/31/2030

CIPV CISO BLACKBRIAR 1 BA 20.0 20.0 20.0 MWH U CA FRESNO T2 2 6/15/2019 12/31/2030

CIPV CISOLAKE ALPAUGH BATTERY STORAGE 1 BA 10.0 10.0 10.0 MWH U CA TULARE T2 2 12/31/2019 12/31/2030

CIPV CISO NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY 1 BA 132.0 132.0 132.0 MWH U CASAN JOAQUIN T2 2 4/1/2022 12/31/2030

CIPV CISO TRANQUILLITY 8 1 BA 206.2 206.2 206.2 MWH SUN U CA FRESNO T2 2 5/30/2018 12/31/2030

CIPV CISOULTRAPOWER CHINESE STATION BESS 1 BA 10.0 10.0 10.0 MWH U CA

TUOLUMNE T2 2 1/1/2020 12/31/2030

CISC CISO ANTELOPE SOLAR 2 1 BA 650.0 650.0 650.0 MWH SUN U CALOS ANGELES T2 2 11/30/2019 12/31/2030

CISC CISO GASKELL WEST 1 BA 128.1 128.1 128.1 MWH SUN U CA KERN T2 2 8/31/2018 12/31/2030

CISD CISOFALLBROOK ENERGY STORAGE 1 BA 70.0 70.0 70.0 MWH U CA

SAN DIEGO T2 2 3/24/2021 12/31/2030

CISD CISOLAKE ELSINORE ADVANCED PUMPED STORAGE PROJECT 1 BA 500.0 500.0 500.0 MWH U CA RIVERSIDE T2 2 12/31/2019 12/31/2030

CISD CISO VISTA ENERGY STORAGE 1 BA 20.0 20.0 20.0 MWH U CASAN DIEGO T2 2 3/1/2018 12/31/2030

CISD CISO VISTA ENERGY STORAGE 2 1 BA 20.1 20.1 20.1 MWH U CASAN DIEGO T2 2 8/1/2019 12/31/2030

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

ADS PCM v1.0 Validation – Alberta-BC flow and AESO generator model

Yi Zhang (CAISO)

October 16, 2018

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Alberta – BC and BC-BPA flow comparison

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AESO generators in ADS PCM

Existing Future-ConceptualPre-Const Reg Approval-Review Under Construction Grand Total

AB-Cogen 3393.9 151.3 170 3715.2

Bio-ST 347.8 347.8

CCWhole-NatGas-Aero 240 240

CCWhole-NatGas-Industrial 3045 1918 870 5833

CT-NatGas-Industrial 1934.8 585.5 5.4 56.5 2582.2

Hydro 941.7 941.7

ICE-NatGas 13 13

NA 686.2 389.6 1075.8

SolarPV-Tracking 400 400

ST-Coal 4099 4099

Steam 215.8 215.8

ST-NatGas 77.6 77.6

UnknownPwrFloMdl 519.5 519.5

VAR-Device 0 0

WT-Onshore 1131.2 3971 116 300 5518.2

Grand Total 16645.5 7415.4 291.4 1226.5 25578.8

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AESO resource forecast

• https://www.aeso.ca/grid/forecasting/

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Reference Case

YearCoal-

firedCogeneration

Combined

Cycle

Simple

Cycle

Coal-to-

GasHydro Wind Solar Other Total

2017* 6,299 4,934 1,746 916 0 894 1,445 0 479 16,713

2022 3,849 5,024 1,746 1,059 1,581 894 3,045 200 479 17,877

2027 2,904 5,114 2,656 1,249 2,371 894 5,045 400 479 21,112

2032 0 5,204 5,386 1,486 2,371 1,244 6,445 700 479 23,315

2037 0 5,339 6,751 2,769 790 1,244 6,445 1,000 479 24,817

High Coal-to-Gas

YearCoal-

firedCogeneration

Combined

Cycle

Simple

Cycle

Coal-to-

GasHydro Wind Solar Other Total

2017* 6,299 4,934 1,746 916 0 894 1,445 0 479 16,713

2022 3,849 5,024 1,746 916 1,581 894 3,045 200 479 17,734

2027 2,904 5,114 2,201 916 2,526 894 5,045 400 479 20,479

2032 0 5,204 3,111 916 5,430 1,244 6,445 700 479 23,529

2037 0 5,339 5,841 916 3,849 1,244 6,445 1,000 479 25,113

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AESO load forecast

2027 Reference Case Low GrowthHigh Coal-to-

Gas

No Coal-to-

Gas

Large-hydro

Addition

Western

Integration

High

Cogeneration

Demand AIL Peak 12,814 12,025 12,814 12,814 12,814 12,814 12,814

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2032 Reference Case Low GrowthHigh Coal-to-

Gas

No Coal-to-

Gas

Large-hydro

Addition

Western

Integration

High

Cogeneration

Demand AIL Peak 13,486 12,277 13,486 13,486 13,486 13,486 13,486

2027 Reference Case Low GrowthHigh Coal-to-

Gas

No Coal-to-

Gas

Large-hydro

Addition

Western

Integration

High

Cogeneration

Demand Total AIL Energy 91,680 86,400 91,680 91,680 91,680 91,680 91,680

2032 Reference Case Low GrowthHigh Coal-to-

Gas

No Coal-to-

Gas

Large-hydro

Addition

Western

Integration

High

Cogeneration

Demand Total AIL Energy 96,350 88,280 96,350 96,350 96,350 96,350 96,350

In the ADS PCM, AESO Peak demand is 12,945 MW, energy is 92,667 GWh, which are close to the 2027 AESO forecast.However, the generator assumption in the ADS PCM is similar to the AESO 2032 or 2037 forecast

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AESO Emission group assignment messed up in GridView

• Most AESO NG and Coal units are assigned to both System and AB CO2 group

– Less CO2 cost for AESO generators => higher dispatch => higher export from AESO

• Similar Emission group errors in other areas are also observed

– GridView issue and ABB needs to fix it

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After fixed the Emission group error and turned off all AESO coal units

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