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Peak oil

A logistic distribution shaped production curve, as originally suggested by M. KingHubbert in 1956.

Peak oil depletion scenarios graph, which depicts cumulative published depletionstudies by the ASPO and other depletion analysts (Oil Shock Model is elaborated

in "The Oil Conundrum").

Peak oil is the point in time when themaximum rate of global petroleumextraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. Thisconcept is based on the observed productionrates of individual oil wells, and thecombined production rate of a field of related oil wells. The aggregate productionrate from an oil field over time usuallygrows exponentially until the rate peaks andthen declines sometimes rapidly until thefield is depleted. This concept is derivedfrom the Hubbert curve, and has been shownto be applicable to the sum of a nationsdomestic production rate, and is similarlyapplied to the global rate of petroleumproduction. Peak oil is often confused withoil depletion; peak oil is the point of maximum production while depletion refersto a period of falling reserves and supply.

M. King Hubbert created and first used themodels behind peak oil in 1956 toaccurately predict that United States oilproduction would peak between 1965 and1970.[1] His logistic model, now calledHubbert peak theory, and its variants havedescribed with reasonable accuracy the peakand decline of production from oil wells,fields, regions, and countries,[2]and has alsoproved useful in other limited-resourceproduction-domains. According to theHubbert model, the production rate of alimited resource will follow a roughlysymmetrical logistic distribution curve (sometimes incorrectly compared to a bell-shaped curve) based on the limitsof exploitability and market pressures.

Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, believe the highdependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural, and industrial systems on the relative low cost and highavailability of oil will cause the post-peak production decline and possible severe increases in the price of oil to havenegative implications for the global economy. Predictions vary greatly as to what exactly these negative effectswould be. If political and economic changes only occur in reaction to high prices and shortages rather than inreaction to the threat of a peak, then the degree of economic damage to importing countries will largely depend on

how rapidly oil imports decline post-peak.

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Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin by 2020 or later, and assume majorinvestments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavilyoil-consuming nations. These models show the price of oil at first escalating and then retreating as other types of fueland energy sources are used.[3] Pessimistic predictions of future oil production operate on the thesis that either thepeak has already occurred,[4] [5] [6] [7] that oil production is on the cusp of the peak, or that it will occur shortly.[8] [9]

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says production of conventional crude oil peaked in 2006.[10] [11]

Throughout the first two quarters of 2008, there were signs that a global recession was being made worse by a seriesof record oil prices.[12]

Demand for oil

Petroleum: top consuming nations, 1960-2006.

The world increased its daily oil consumption from 63 million barrels (Mbbl) in1980 to 85 million barrels in 2006.

The demand side of peak oil is concernedwith the consumption over time, and thegrowth of this demand. World crude oildemand grew an average of 1.76% per yearfrom 1994 to 2006, with a high of 3.4% in2003-2004. After reaching a high of 85.6million barrels per day in 2007, worldconsumption decreased in both 2008 and2009 by a total of 1.8%, due to rising fuelcosts.[13]Despite this lull, world demand foroil is projected to increase 21% over 2007levels by 2030 (104 million barrels per day(16.5106 m3 /d) from 86 million barrels(13.7106 m3)), due in large part toincreases in demand from the transportationsector.[14] [15] [16] A study published in the journal Energy Policy predicted demandwould surpass supply by 2015 (unlessconstrained by strong recession pressurescaused by reduced supply).[9]

Energy demand is distributed amongst fourbroad sectors: transportation, residential,commercial, and industrial.[17] [18] In termsof oil use, transportation is the largest sectorand the one that has seen the largest growthin demand in recent decades. This growthhas largely come from new demand forpersonal-use vehicles powered by internalcombustion engines.[19]This sector also hasthe highest consumption rates, accountingfor approximately 68.9% of the oil used inthe United States in 2006,[20] and 55% of oil use worldwide as documented in the Hirsch report. Transportation istherefore of particular interest to those seeking to mitigate the effects of peak oil.

Although demand growth is highest in the developing world,[21]

the United States is the world's largest consumer of petroleum. Between 1995 and 2005, U.S. consumption grew from 17700000 barrels per day ( m3 /d) to

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20700000 barrels per day ( m3 /d), a 3000000 barrels per day ( m3 /d) increase. China, by comparison, increasedconsumption from 3400000 barrels per day ( m3 /d) to 7000000 barrels per day ( m3 /d), an increase of 3600000 barrels per day ( m3 /d), in the same time frame.[22]

United States oil production peaked in 1970. By 2005 imports weretwice the production.

As countries develop, industry and higher livingstandards drive up energy use, most often of oil.

Thriving economies such as China and India arequickly becoming large oil consumers.[23] China hasseen oil consumption grow by 8% yearly since 2002,doubling from 1996-2006.[21] In 2008, auto sales inChina were expected to grow by as much as 15-20%,resulting in part from economic growth rates of over10% for 5 years in a row.[24]

Although swift continued growth in China is oftenpredicted, others predict that China's export dominatedeconomy will not continue such growth trends due towage and price inflation and reduced demand from theUnited States.[25] India's oil imports are expected tomore than triple from 2005 levels by 2020, rising to5 million barrels per day (790103 m3 /d).[26]

The International Energy Agency estimated in January2009 that oil demand fell in 2008 by 0.3%, and that it

would fall by 0.6% in 2009. Oil consumption had not fallen for two years in a row since 1982-1983.[27]

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that the United States' demand for petroleum-basedtransportation fuels fell 7.1% in 2008, which is "the steepest one-year decline since at least 1950." The agency stated

that gasoline usage in the United States may have peaked in 2007, in part due to increasing interest in and mandatesfor use of biofuels and energy efficiency.[28] [29]

The EIA now expects global oil demand to increase by about 1600000 barrels per day ( m3 /d) in 2010. Asianeconomies, in particular China, will lead the increase.[30]Chinas oil demand may rise more than 5% compared witha 3.7% gain in 2009, the CNPC said.[31]

Population

World population

Another significant factor on petroleumdemand has been human population growth.

Oil production per capita peaked in 1979.[32]

The United States Census Bureau predictsthat the world population in 2030 will bealmost double that of 1980.[33] Author MattSavinar predicts that oil production in 2030will have declined back to 1980 levels asworldwide demand for oil significantlyout-paces production.[34] [35] PhysicistAlbert Bartlett argues that the decline of therate of oil production per capita has gone

undiscussed because population control isconsidered politically incorrect by some.[36]

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Oil production per capita has declined from 5.26 barrels per year (0.836 m3 /a) in 1980 to 4.44 barrels per year(0.706 m3 /a) in 1993,[33] [37] but then increased to 4.79 barrels per year (0.762 m3 /a) in 2005.[33] [37] In 2006, theworld oil production took a downturn from 84.631 to 84.597 million barrels per day (13.4553106 to13.4498106 m3 /d) although population has continued to increase. This has caused the oil production per capita todrop again to 4.73 barrels per year (0.752 m3 /a).[33] [37]

One factor that has so far helped ameliorate the effect of population growth on demand is the decline of populationgrowth rate since the 1970s. In 1970, the population grew at 2.1%. By 2007, the growth rate had declined to1.167%.[38] However, oil production was, until 2005, still outpacing population growth to meet demand. Worldpopulation grew by 6.2% from 6.07 billion in 2000 to 6.45 billion in 2005,[33]whereas according to BP, global oilproduction during that same period increased from 74.9 to 81.1 million barrels (11.91106 to 12.89106 m3), or by8.2%.[39] or according to EIA, from 77.762 to 84.631 million barrels (12.3632106 to 13.4553106 m3), or by8.8%.[37]

Agricultural effects and population limits

Since supplies of oil and gas are essential to modern agriculture techniques, a fall in global oil supplies could cause

spiking food prices and unprecedented famine in the coming decades.[40]

[41]

Geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer contendsthat current population levels are unsustainable, and that to achieve a sustainable economy and avert disaster theUnited States population would have to be reduced by at least one-third, and world population by two-thirds.[42] [43]

The largest consumer of fossil fuels in modern agriculture is ammonia production (for fertilizer) via the Haberprocess, which is essential to high-yielding intensive agriculture. The specific fossil fuel input to fertilizer productionis primarily natural gas, to provide hydrogen via steam reforming. Given sufficient supplies of renewable electricity,hydrogen can be generated without fossil fuels using methods such as electrolysis. For example, the Vemorkhydroelectric plant in Norway used its surplus electricity output to generate renewable ammonia from 1911 to1971.[44]

Iceland currently generates ammonia using the electrical output from its hydroelectric and geothermal power plants,because Iceland has those resources in abundance while having no domestic hydrocarbon resources, and a high costfor importing natural gas.[45]

Petroleum supply

Discoveries

Growing gap between discovery and production

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All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from morechallenging environments and work areas.

William J. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman, December 2005[46]

It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going tobe expensive.

Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former chairman of Shell, October 2008[47]

To pump oil, it first needs to be discovered. The peak of world oilfield discoveries occurred in 1965[48]at around 55billion barrels(Gb)/year.[49] According to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), the rate of discovery has been falling steadily since. Less than 10 Gb/yr of oil were discovered each year between2002-2007.[50] According to a 2010 Reuters article, the annual rate of discovery of new fields has remainedremarkably constant at 15-20 Gb/yr.[51]

Reserves

Proven oil reserves, 2009.

2004 U.S. government predictions for oil production other than in OPEC and the formerSoviet Union.

Total possible conventional crude oilreserves include all crude oil with90-95% certainty of being technicallypossible to produce (from reservoirsthrough a wellbore using primary,secondary, improved, enhanced, ortertiary methods), all crude with a 50%probability of being produced in the

future, and discovered reserves whichhave a 5-10% possibility of beingproduced in the future. These arereferred to as 1P/Proven (90-95%),2P/Probable (50%), and 3P/Possible(5-10%).[52] This does not includeliquids extracted from mined solids orgasses (oil sands, oil shales,gas-to-liquid processes, orcoal-to-liquid processes).[53]

Many current 2P calculations predictreserves to be between 1150-1350 Gb,but because of misinformation,withheld information, and misleadingreserve calculations, it has beenreported that 2P reserves are likelynearer to 850-900 Gb.[5] [9]Reserves ineffect peaked in 1980, whenproduction first surpassed new

discoveries, though creative methodsof recalculating reserves have made this difficult to establish exactly.[5]

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Current technology is capable of extracting about 40% of the oil from most wells. Some speculate that futuretechnology will make further extraction possible,[54] but this future technology is usually already considered inProven and Probable (2P) reserve numbers.

In many major producing countries, the majority of reserves claims have not been subject to outside audit orexamination. Most of the easy-to-extract oil has been found.[46]Recent price increases have led to oil exploration in

areas where extraction is much more expensive, such as in extremely deep wells, extreme downhole temperatures,and environmentally sensitive areas or where high technology will be required to extract the oil. A lower rate of discoveries per explorations has led to a shortage of drilling rigs, increases in steel prices, and overall increases incosts due to complexity.[55] [56]

Concerns over stated reserves

[World] reserves are confused and in fact inflated. Many of the so-called reserves are in fact resources. They're not delineated, they're notaccessible, theyre not available for production.

Sadad I. Al-Husseini, former VP of Aramco, presentation to the Oil and Money conference, October 2007.[6]

Al-Husseini estimated that 300 billion barrels (48109 m3) of the world's 1200 billion barrels (190109 m3) of proven reserves should be recategorized as speculative resources.[6]

Graph of OPEC reported reserves showing refutable jumps in stated reserves withoutassociated discoveries, as well as the lack of depletion despite yearly production.

One difficulty in forecasting the dateof peak oil is the opacity surroundingthe oil reserves classified as 'proven'.Many worrying signs concerning thedepletion of proven reserves haveemerged in recent years.[57] [58] Thiswas best exemplified by the 2004scandal surrounding the 'evaporation'of 20% of Shell's reserves.[59]

For the most part, proven reserves arestated by the oil companies, theproducer states and the consumerstates. All three have reasons tooverstate their proven reserves: oilcompanies may look to increase theirpotential worth; producer countries

gain a stronger international stature; and governments of consumer countries may seek a means to foster sentimentsof security and stability within their economies and among consumers.

The Energy Watch Group (EWG) 2007 report shows total world Proved (P95) plus Probable (P50) reserves to bebetween 854 billion and 1255 billion barrels (199.5109 m3) (30 to 40 years of supply if demand growth were tostop immediately). Major discrepancies arise from accuracy issues with OPEC's self-reported numbers. Besides thepossibility that these nations have overstated their reserves for political reasons (during periods of no substantialdiscoveries), over 70 nations also follow a practice of not reducing their reserves to account for yearly production.1255 billion barrels (199.5109 m3) is therefore a best-case scenario.[5]Analysts have suggested that OPEC membernations have economic incentives to exaggerate their reserves, as the OPEC quota system allows greater output forcountries with greater reserves.[54]

Kuwait, for example, was reported in the January 2006 issue of Petroleum Intelligence Weekly to have only48 billion barrels (7.6109 m3) in reserve, of which only 24 were fully proven. This report was based on the leak of a

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Unconventional resources are much larger than conventional ones.[77]

Despite the large quantities of oilavailable in non-conventional sources,Matthew Simmons argues thatlimitations on production prevent themfrom becoming an effective substitute

for conventional crude oil. Simmonsstates that "these are high energyintensity projects that can never reachhigh volumes" to offset significantlosses from other sources.[78] Anotherstudy claims that even under highlyoptimistic assumptions, "Canada's oilsands will not prevent peak oil,"although production could reach5000000 bbl/d ( m3 /d) by 2030 in a

"crash program" developmenteffort.[79]

Moreover, oil extracted from these sources typically contains contaminants such as sulfur and heavy metals that areenergy-intensive to extract and can leave tailings - ponds containing hydrocarbon sludge - in some cases.[67] [80]Thesame applies to much of the Middle East's undeveloped conventional oil reserves, much of which is heavy, viscous,and contaminated with sulfur and metals to the point of being unusable.[81] However, recent high oil prices makethese sources more financially appealing.[54] A study by Wood Mackenzie suggests that within 15 years all theworlds extra oil supply will likely come from unconventional sources.[82]

Synthetic sources

A 2003 article in Discover magazine claimed that thermal depolymerization could be used to manufacture oilindefinitely, out of garbage, sewage, and agricultural waste. The article claimed that the cost of the process was $15per barrel.[83]A follow-up article in 2006 stated that the cost was actually $80 per barrel, because the feedstock thathad previously been considered as hazardous waste now had market value.[84]

A 2007 news bulletin published by Los Alamos Laboratory proposed that hydrogen (possibly produced using hotfluid from nuclear reactors to split water into hydrogen and oxygen) in combination with sequestered CO2 could beused to produce methanol, which could then be converted into gasoline. The press release stated that in order forsuch a process to be economically feasible, gasoline prices would need to be above $4.60 "at the pump" in U.S.markets. Capital and operational costs were uncertain mostly because the costs associated with sequestering CO2 are

unknown.[85]

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Oil field decline

Alaska's oil production has declined 65% since peaking in 1988

Of the largest 21 fields, at least 9 are indecline.[90] In April 2006, a Saudi Aramcospokesman admitted that its mature fieldsare now declining at a rate of 8% per year

(with a national composite decline of about2%).[91] This information has been used toargue that Ghawar, which is the largest oilfield in the world and responsible forapproximately half of Saudi Arabia's oilproduction over the last 50 years, haspeaked.[54] [92] The world's second largestoil field, the Burgan field in Kuwait, entereddecline in November 2005.[93]

According to a study of the largest 811oilfields conducted in early 2008 byCambridge Energy Research Associates(CERA), the average rate of field decline is4.5% per year. The IEA stated in November2008 that an analysis of 800 oilfieldsshowed the decline in oil production to be6.7% a year, and that this would grow to 8.6% in 2030.[94] There are also projects expected to begin productionwithin the next decade that are hoped to offset these declines. The CERA report projects a 2017 production level of over 100 million barrels per day (16106 m3 /d).[95]

Kjell Aleklett of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas agrees with their decline rates, but considers therate of new fields coming online 100% of all projects in development, but with 30% of them experiencing delays,plus a mix of new small fields and field expansions overly optimistic.[96]A more rapid annual rate of decline of 5.1% in 800 of the world's largest oil fields was reported by the International Energy Agency in their World EnergyOutlook 2008.[97]

Mexico announced that its giant Cantarell Field entered depletion in March 2006,[98]due to past overproduction. In2000, PEMEX built the largest nitrogen plant in the world in an attempt to maintain production through nitrogeninjection into the formation,[99]but by 2006, Cantarell was declining at a rate of 13% per year.[100]

OPEC had vowed in 2000 to maintain a production level sufficient to keep oil prices between $22 28 per barrel, butdid not prove possible. In its 2007 annual report, OPEC projected that it could maintain a production level that wouldstabilize the price of oil at around $50 60 per barrel until 2030.[101]On November 18, 2007, with oil above $98 abarrel, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, a long-time advocate of stabilized oil prices, announced that his countrywould not increase production to lower prices.[102] Saudi Arabia's inability, as the world's largest supplier, tostabilize prices through increased production during that period suggests that no nation or organization had the spareproduction capacity to lower oil prices. The implication is that those major suppliers who had not yet peaked wereoperating at or near full capacity.[54]

Commentators have pointed to the Jack 2 deep water test well in the Gulf of Mexico, announced 5 September2006,[103]as evidence that there is no imminent peak in global oil production. According to one estimate, the fieldcould account for up to 11% of U.S. production within seven years.[104]However, even though oil discoveries are

expected after the peak oil of production is reached,[105]

the new reserves of oil will be harder to find and extract.The Jack 2 field, for instance, is more than 20000 feet (6100 m) under the sea floor in 7000 feet (2100 m) of water,

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requiring 8.5 kilometers (5.3 miles) of pipe to reach. Additionally, even the maximum estimate of 15 billion barrels(2.4109 m3) represents slightly less than 2 years of U.S. consumption at present levels.[18]

Control over supply

Entities such as governments or cartels can reduce supply to the world market by limiting access to the supply

through nationalizing oil, cutting back on production, limiting drilling rights, imposing taxes, etc. Internationalsanctions, corruption, and military conflicts can also reduce supply.

Nationalization of oil supplies

Another factor affecting global oil supply is the nationalization of oil reserves by producing nations. Thenationalization of oil occurs as countries begin to deprivatize oil production and withhold exports. Kate Dourian,Platts' Middle East editor, points out that while estimates of oil reserves may vary, politics have now entered theequation of oil supply. "Some countries are becoming off limits. Major oil companies operating in Venezuela findthemselves in a difficult position because of the growing nationalization of that resource. These countries are nowreluctant to share their reserves."[106]

According to consulting firm PFC Energy, only 7% of the world's estimated oil and gas reserves are in countries thatallow companies like ExxonMobil free rein. Fully 65% are in the hands of state-owned companies such as SaudiAramco, with the rest in countries such as Russia and Venezuela, where access by Western companies is difficult.The PFC study implies political factors are limiting capacity increases in Mexico, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, andRussia. Saudi Arabia is also limiting capacity expansion, but because of a self-imposed cap, unlike the othercountries.[107]As a result of not having access to countries amenable to oil exploration, ExxonMobil is not makingnearly the investment in finding new oil that it did in 1981.[108]

Cartel influence on supply

OPEC is an alliance between 12 diverse oil producing countries (Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait,Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela) to control the supply of oil. OPEC'spower was consolidated as various countries nationalized their oil holdings, and wrested decision-making away fromthe "Seven Sisters," (Anglo-Iranian, Socony-Vacuum, Royal Dutch Shell, Gulf, Esso, Texaco, and Socal) andcreated their own oil companies to control the oil. OPEC tries to influence prices by restricting production. It doesthis by allocating each member country a quota for production. All 12 members agree to keep prices high byproducing at lower levels than they otherwise would. There is no way to verify adherence to the quota, so everymember faces the same incentive tocheat the cartel.[109]Washington kept the oil flowing and gained favorableOPEC policies mainly by arming, and propping up Saudi regimes. According to some, the purpose for the secondIraq war is to break the back of OPEC and return control of the oil fields to western oil companies.[110]

Alternately, commodities trader Raymond Learsy, author of Over a Barrel: Breaking the Middle East Oil Cartel ,contends that OPEC has trained consumers to believe that oil is a much more finite resource than it is. To back hisargument, he points to past false alarms and apparent collaboration.[64] He also believes that peak oil analysts areconspiring with OPEC and the oil companies to create a "fabricated drama of peak oil" to drive up oil prices andprofits. It is worth noting oil had risen to a little over $30/barrel at that time. A counter-argument was given in theHuffington Post after he and Steve Andrews, co-founder of ASPO, debated on CNBC in June 2007.[111]

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Timing of peak oilWorldwide oil production, including oil from oil sands, reached an all-time high of 73720000 barrels per day ( m3 /d)in 2005. By 2009, production had declined to 72260000 barrels per day ( m3 /d).[112]

M. King Hubbert initially predicted in 1974 that peak oil would occur in 1995 "if current trends continue."[113]

However, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, global oil consumption actually dropped (due to the shift toenergy-efficient cars,[114]the shift to electricity andnaturalgas for heating,[115]and other factors), then rebounded toa lower level of growth inthe mid 1980s. Thus oil production did not peak in1995, and has climbed to more thandouble the rate initially projected. This underscores the fact that the only reliable way to identify the timing of peakoil will be in retrospect. However, predictions have been refined through the years as up-to-date informationbecomes more readily available, such as new reserve growth data.[116]Predictions of the timing of peak oil includethe possibilities that it has recently occurred, that it will occur shortly, or that a plateau of oil production will sustainsupply for up to 100 years. None of these predictions dispute the peaking of oil production, but disagree only onwhen it will occur.

According to Matthew Simmons, former Chairman of Simmons & Company International and author of Twilight inthe Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy , "...peaking is one of these fuzzy events that youonly know clearly when you see it through a rear view mirror, and by then an alternate resolution is generally toolate."[117]

Possible effects and consequences of peak oil

Suburban housing near Cincinnati, Ohio

The wide use of fossil fuels has been one of the most important stimuliof economic growth and prosperity since the industrial revolution,allowing humans to participate in takedown, or the consumption of energy at a greater rate than it is being replaced. Some believe thatwhen oil production decreases, human culture, and moderntechnological society will be forced to change drastically. The impactof peak oil will depend heavily on the rate of decline and thedevelopment and adoption of effective alternatives. If alternatives arenot forthcoming, the products produced with oil (including fertilizers,detergents, solvents, adhesives, and most plastics) would becomescarce and expensive.

In 2005, the United States Department of Energy published a report titled Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management .[118] Known as the Hirsch report, it stated, "The peaking of world oil productionpresents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid

fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, andpolitical costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but tohave substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."

The Export Land Model states that after peak oil petroleum exporting countries will be forced to reduce their exportsmore quickly than their production decreases because of internal demand growth. Countries that rely on importedpetroleum will therefore be affected earlier and more dramatically than exporting countries.[119]Mexico is already inthis situation. Internal consumption grew by 5.9% in 2006 in the five biggest exporting countries, and their exportsdeclined by over 3%. It was estimated that by 2010 internal demand would decrease worldwide exports by2500000 barrels per day ( m3 /d).[120]

A majority of Americans live in suburbs, a type of low-density settlement designed around universal personalautomobile use. Commentators such as James Howard Kunstler argue that because over 90% of transportation in theU.S. relies on oil, the suburbs' reliance on the automobile is an unsustainable living arrangement. Peak oil would

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leave many Americans unable to afford petroleum based fuel for their cars, and force them to use bicycles or electricvehicles. Additional options include telecommuting, moving to rural areas, or moving to higher density areas, wherewalking and public transportation are more viable options. In the latter two cases, suburbia may become the "slumsof the future."[121] [122] The issues of petroleum supply and demand is also a concern for growing cities indeveloping countries (where urban areas are expected to absorb most of the world's projected 2.3 billion populationincrease by 2050). Stressing the energy component of future development plans is seen as an important goal.[123]

Methods that have been suggested[124] for mitigating these urban and suburban issues include the use of non-petroleum vehicles such as electric cars, battery electric vehicles, transit-oriented development, Car-free Cities,bicycles, new trains, new pedestrianism, smart growth, shared space, urban consolidation, urban villages, and NewUrbanism.

An extensive 2009 report by the United States National Research Council of the Academy of Sciences,commissioned by the United States Congress, stated six main findings.[125]First, that compact development is likelyto reduce "Vehicle Miles Traveled" (VMT) throughout the country. Second, that doubling residential density in agiven area could reduce VMT by as much as 25% if coupled with measures such as increased employment densityand improved public transportation. Third, that higher density, mixed-use developments would produce both direct

reductions in CO2 emissions (from lessdriving), and indirectreductions (such as from lower amounts of materialsused per housing unit, higher efficiency climate control, longer vehicle lifespans, and higher efficiency delivery of goods and services). Fourth, that although short term reductions in energy use and CO2 emissions would be modest,that these reductions would grow over time. Fifth, that a major obstacle to more compact development in the UnitedStates is political resistance from local zoning regulators, which would hamper efforts by state and regionalgovernments to participate in land-use planning. Sixth, the committee agreed that changes in development that wouldalter driving patterns and building efficiency would have various secondary costs and benefits that are difficult toquantify. The report made two major recommendations: first that policies that support compact development (andespecially its ability to reduce driving, energy use, and CO2 emissions) should be encouraged, and second thatfurther studies should be conducted to make future compact development more effective.

Mitigation

To avoid the serious social and economic implications a global decline in oil production could entail, the 2005Hirsch report emphasized the need to find alternatives, at least ten to twenty years before the peak, and to phase outthe use of petroleum over that time.[126] This was similar to a plan proposed for Sweden that same year. Suchmitigation could include energy conservation, fuel substitution, and the use of unconventional oil. Becausemitigation can reduce the use of traditional petroleum sources, it can also affect the timing of peak oil and the shapeof the Hubbert curve.

Positive aspects of peak oil

Some observers opine that peak oil should be viewed as a positive event.[127]Many such critics reason that if theprice of oil rises high enough, the use of alternative clean fuels could help control pollution from fossil fuel use, andmitigate global warming.[128]Permaculture, particularly as expressed in the work of Australian David Holmgren, andothers, sees peak oil as holding tremendous potential for positive change, assuming countries act with foresight. Therebuilding of local food networks, energy production, and the general implementation of 'energy descent culture' areargued to be ethical responses to the acknowledgment of finite fossil resources.[129]

The Transition Towns movement, started in Totnes, Devon[130] and spread internationally by "The TransitionHandbook" (Rob Hopkins), sees the restructuring of society for more local resilience and ecological stewardship as anatural response to the combination of peak oil and climate change.[131]

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Effects of rising oil prices

World consumption of primary energy by energy type in terawatts (TW),1965-2005.[144]

In the past, the price of oil has led toeconomic recessions, such as the 1973 and1979 energy crises. The effect the price of oil has on an economy is known as a price

shock. In many European countries, whichhave high taxes on fuels, such price shockscould potentially be mitigated somewhat bytemporarily or permanently suspending thetaxes as fuel costs rise.[145]This method of softening price shocks is less useful incountries with much lower gas taxes, suchas the United States.

Some economists predict that a substitution

effect will spur demand for alternate energysources, such as coal or liquefied naturalgas. This substitution can only be temporary, as coal and natural gas are finite resources as well.

Prior to the run-up in fuel prices, many motorists opted for larger, less fuel-efficient sport utility vehicles andfull-sized pickups in the United States, Canada, and other countries. This trend has been reversing due to sustainedhigh prices of fuel. The September 2005 sales data for all vehicle vendors indicated SUV sales dropped while smallcars sales increased. Hybrid and diesel vehicles are also gaining in popularity.[146]

In 2008, a report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates stated that 2007 had been the year of peak gasolineusage in the United States, and that record energy prices would cause an "enduring shift" in energy consumptionpractices.[147]According to the report, in April gas consumption had been lower than a year before for the sixthstraight month, suggesting 2008 would be the first year U.S. gasoline usage declined in 17 years. The total milesdriven in the U.S. peaked in 2006.[148]

The elasticity of OECD oil demand to rising prices is a function of many feedback mechanisms, some which arenegative like fuel substitution, increased efficiency and conservation which re-enforce lower demand, and otherswhich can result in positive feedback where higher prices can lead to higher oil demand. For example, Canadianeconomist Jeff Rubin has stated that higher oil prices will likely lead to higher freight shipping costs which will leadin turn to more manufacturing industry moving back to OECD countries (re-localisation of manufacturingproduction) for economic advantage.[149] As OECD industrial manufacturing production requires energy, andpetrochemical inputs, this positive feedback mechanism of re-localisation of manufacturing production would

therefore be positive for OECD oil demand. The following graph reference shows a break down in US oil usage, amember of the OECD, where approx. 23% of oil usage is for industrial usage.[150]Another example of positivefeedback in the oil market can be found in Export Land Models of oil exporting nations, where rising global pricesand higher export revenue in exporting nations can lead to higher local consumption as their increased exportrevenue is spent, and therefore less oil production for export in a post peak production situation.[151]

Economic research carried out by the International Monetary fund gives an overall oil price demand elasticity figureof -0.025 short term and -0.093 long term.[152]

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Historical understanding of world oil supply limitsAlthough the Earth's finite oil supply means that peak oil is inevitable, technological innovations in finding anddrilling for oil have at times changed the understanding of the total oil supply on Earth. As scientific understandingof petroleum geology has increased, so has our understanding of the Earth's total recoverable reserves. Since 1965,major oil surveys have averaged a 95% confidence Estimated Ultimate Retrieval (P95 EUR) of a little under

2000 billion barrels (320109 m3), though some estimates have been as low as 1500 billion barrels (240109 m3),and as high as 2400 billion barrels (380109 m3).[5]

The EUR reported by the 2000 USGS survey of 2300 billion barrels (370109 m3) has been criticized for assuming adiscovery trend over the next twenty years that would reverse the observed trend of the past 40 years. Their 95%confidence EUR of 2300 billion barrels (370109 m3) assumed that discovery levels would stay steady, despite thefact that discovery levels have been falling steadily since the 1960s. That trend of falling discoveries has continuedin the ten years since the USGS made their assumption. The 2000 USGS is also criticized for introducing othermethodological errors, as well as assuming 2030 production rates inconsistent with projected reserves.[5]

CriticismsSome do not agree with peak oil, at least as it has been presented by Matthew Simmons. The president of RoyalDutch Shell's U.S. operations John Hofmeister, while agreeing that conventional oil production will soon start todecline, has criticized Simmons's analysis for being "overly focused on a single country: Saudi Arabia, the world'slargest exporter and OPEC swing producer." He also points to the large reserves at the U.S. outer continentalshelf,which holds an estimated 100 billion barrels (16109 m3) of oil and natural gas. As things stand, however, only15%of those reserves are currently exploitable, a good part of that off the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, andTexas. Hofmeister also contends that Simmons erred in excluding unconventional sources of oil such as the oil sandsof Canada, where Shell is already active. The Canadian oil sands a natural combination of sand, water, and oilfound largely in Alberta and Saskatchewan is believed to contain one trillion barrels of oil. Another trillion barrels

are also said to be trapped in rocks in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming,[153]

but are in the form of oil shale. Theseparticular reserves present major environmental, social, and economic obstacles to recovery.[154] [155] Hofmeisteralso claims that if oil companies were allowed to drill more in the United States enough to produce another 2 millionbarrels per day (320103 m3 /d), oil and gas prices would not be as high as they are in the later part of the 2000 to2010 decade. He thinks that high energy prices are causing social unrest similar to levels surrounding the RodneyKing riots.[156]

Dr. Christoph Rhl, Chief economist of BP, repeatedly uttered strong doubts about the peak oil hypothesis:[157]

Physical peak oil, which I have no reason to accept as a valid statement either on theoretical, scientificor ideological grounds, would be insensitive to prices. (...)In fact the whole hypothesis of peak oil which is that there is a certain amount of oil in the ground, consumed at a certain rate, and then it'sfinished does not react to anything.... (Global Warming) is likely to be more of a natural limit than allthese peak oil theories combined. (...) Peak oil has been predicted for 150 years. It has never happened,and it will stay this way.

According to Rhl, the main limitations for oil availability are "above ground" and are to be found in the availabilityof staff, expertise, technology, investment security, money and last but not least in global warming. The oil questionis about price and not the basic availability. His views are shared by Daniel Yergin of CERA, who added that therecent high price phase might add to a future demise of the oil industry - not of lack of resources or an apocalypticshock but the timely and smooth setup of alternatives.[158]

Clive Mather, CEO of Shell Canada, said the Earth's supply of hydrocarbons is almost infinite, referring to

hydrocarbons in oil sands.[159]

Engineer Peter Huber believes the Canadian oil sands can fuel all of humanity's needsfor over 100 years.[159]

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In fictionJohn Seymour, best known for his books on self-sufficiency, also wrote the first post-oil novel in 1996, Retrieved

from the Future ,[160]set in the early decades of the twenty-first century. It describes how rural East Anglia in Britainmight survive amid government collapse and martial law.

Andreas Eschbach is an engineer and writer who in 2007 published Ausgebrannt ,[161]a German novel that reachednumber seven on the Spiegel bestseller list. It chronicles the crash of Saudi Arabia's biggest oil field, and a petroleumengineer who is convinced he can find vast reserves of new oil.

Alex Scarrow's 2007 novel, Last Light ,[162]takes place during a peak oil crisis. The book portrays the collapse of theUnited Kingdom, as a result of a full-scale terrorist attack against several important key installations in the MiddleEast. It follows the experiences of a family - a father trapped in Iraq, a mother far away from her children, a daughterand son fending for themselves - as the complete break-down of law and order causes looting, deaths, and worse.The sequel, Afterlight ,[163]was published in 2010.

James Howard Kunstler, author of The Long Emergency [164]and The Geography of Nowhere ,[165]fictionalized hispredictions of post-oil civilization into a 2008 novel entitledWorld Made by Hand .[166]The book portrays the efforts

of Robert Earle, a former software executive elected mayor of a small town in New York, who faces the struggle of rebuilding a civil society amid arguing factions. A sequel,The Witch of Hebron ,[167]was published in 2010.

Robert Charles Wilson's 2009 book Julian Comstock: A Story of 22nd Century America [168]is set a hundred yearsafter the end of the age of oil, and American society has fallen back to a level similar to that of the Civil War. Thebook follows Julian Comstock, the nephew of the President, during a series of battles and adventures across anAmerican landscape where many cities have been scavenged for their precious resources.

Paolo Bacigalupi's 2010 bookShip Breaker [169]is a young adult novel set in a postapocalyptic Gulf Coast. The maincharacter is a young man who scavenges from old shipwrecks and comes across a young woman trapped in a ship.

The Mad Max films are based in a post-apocalyptic Australia, in which(Mad Max 2: The Road Warrior explains) thegeneral social collapse has occurred because of a global energy shortage, particularly of oil.

The 1979 comedy Americathon is set in a future (1998) where the USA has run out of oil and the economy is nearcollapse. Americans live in their (now stationary) cars and commute by either jogging or riding bicycles.

Frontlines: Fuel of War , a 2008 first-person shooter video game for the Xbox 360 and PC, is set during a fictionalWorld War after peak oil occurs.

Further information

Books

Campbell, Colin J (2004).The Essence of Oil & Gas Depletion . Multi-Science Publishing. ISBN 0-906522-19-6. Campbell, Colin J (1997).The Coming Oil Crisis . Multi-Science Publishing. ISBN 0-906522-11-0. Campbell, Colin J (2005).Oil Crisis . Multi-Science Publishing. ISBN 0-906522-39-0. Deffeyes, Kenneth S (2002). Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage . Princeton University Press.

ISBN 0-691-09086-6. Deffeyes, Kenneth S (2005). Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak . Hill and Wang. ISBN 0-8090-2956-1. Goodstein David (2005).Out of Gas: The End of the Age Of Oil . WW Norton. ISBN 0-393-05857-3. Heinberg Richard (2003).The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies . New Society

Publishers. ISBN 0-86571-482-7. Heinberg, Richard (2004). Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World . New Society Publishers.

ISBN 0-86571-510-6. Heinberg, Richard (2006).The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic

Collapse . New Society Publishers. ISBN 0-86571-563-7.

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Power_Down:_Options_and_Actions_for_a_Post-Carbon_Worldhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=The_Party%27s_Over:_Oil%2C_War%2C_and_the_Fate_of_Industrial_Societieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Richard_Heinberghttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Out_of_Gashttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=David_Goodsteinhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Beyond_Oilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Kenneth_S._Deffeyeshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Colin_J._Campbellhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=World_warhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Personal_computerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Xbox_360http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=First-person_shooterhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Frontlines:_Fuel_of_Warhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Americathonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Mad_Max_2:_The_Road_Warriorhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Mad_Maxhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Gulf_Coasthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Paolo_Bacigalupihttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Civil_Warhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Robert_Charles_Wilsonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=New_Yorkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=James_Howard_Kunstlerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Iraqhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Middle_Easthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Middle_Easthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=United_Kingdomhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Alex_Scarrowhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Saudi_Arabiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Andreas_Eschbachhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Martial_lawhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Great_Britainhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=East_Angliahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Self-sufficiencyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=John_Seymour

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Documentary Films

The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream (2004) Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash (2006) The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil (2006) Crude Impact (2006)

What a Way to Go: Life at the End of Empire (2007) PetroApocalypse Now? (2008) Collapse (2009)

Notes[1] Hubbert, Marion King (June 1956). "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels 'Drilling and Production Practice'" (http://www. hubbertpeak.

com/hubbert/1956/1956. pdf) (PDF). Spring Meeting of the Southern District. Division of Production. American Petroleum Institute. SanAntonio, Texas: Shell Development Company. pp. 22 27. . Retrieved 2008-04-18.

[2] Brandt, Adam R. (May 2007). "Testing Hubbert" (http://www. iaee. org/en/students/best_papers/Adam_Brandt. pdf) (PDF). Energy Policy (Elsevier)35 (5): 3074 3088. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2006.11.004. .

[3] "CERA says peak oil theory is faulty" (http://web. archive. org/web/20080622222111/http://www. energybulletin. net/22381. html). Energy Bulletin (Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)). 2006-11-14. Archived from the original (http://www. energybulletin. net/ node/22381) on 2008-06-22. . Retrieved 2008-07-27.

[4] Deffeyes, Kenneth S (2007-01-19). "Current Events - Join us as we watch the crisis unfolding" (http://www. princeton. edu/hubbert/ current-events. html). Princeton University: Beyond Oil. . Retrieved 2008-07-27.

[5] Zittel, Werner; Schindler, Jorg (October 2007) (PDF).Crude Oil: The Supply Outlook (http://www. energywatchgroup. org/fileadmin/ global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-2007. pdf). Energy Watch Group. EWG-Series No 3/2007. . Retrieved 2008-07-27.

[6] Cohen, Dave (2007-10-31). "The Perfect Storm" (http://www. aspo-usa. com/archives/index. php?option=com_content&task=view&id=243&Itemid=91). Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. . Retrieved 2008-07-27.

[7] Kjell Aleklett, Mikael Hk, Kristofer Jakobsson, Michael Lardelli, Simon Snowden, Bengt Sderbergh (2009-11-09). "The Peak of the OilAge" (http://www. tsl. uu. se/uhdsg/Publications/PeakOilAge. pdf). Energy Policy. . Retrieved 2009-11-15.

[8] Koppelaar, Rembrandt H.E.M. (September 2006) (PDF).World Production and Peaking Outlook (http://peakoil. nl/wp-content/uploads/ 2006/09/asponl_2005_report. pdf). Peakoil Nederland. . Retrieved 2008-07-27.

[9] Nick A. Owen, Oliver R. Inderwildi, David A. King (2010). "The status of conventional world oil reserves Hype or cause for concern?". Energy Policy 38 (8): 4743. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.026.

[10] " IsPeak Oil Behind Us? (http://green. blogs. nytimes. com/2010/11/14/is-peak-oil-behind-us/?partner=rss&emc=rss)". The NewYork Times. November 14, 2010

[11] " Has the World Already Passed Peak Oil ? (http://news. nationalgeographic. com/news/energy/2010/11/ 101109-peak-oil-iea-world-energy-outlook/)". National Geographic News. November 9, 2010

[12] Bruno, Joe Bel (2008-03-08). "Oil Rally May Be Economy's Undoing" (http://www. usatoday. com/money/economy/ 2008-03-08-3190491488_x. htm).USA Today . Associated Press. . Retrieved 2009-07-11.

[13] BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2010[14] "World oil demand 'to rise by 37%'" (http://news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/business/5099400. stm). BBC News. 2006-06-20. . Retrieved

2008-08-25.[15] "Petroleum and other liquid fuels" (http://www. eia. doe. gov/oiaf/archive/ieo07/pdf/oil. pdf) (PDF).2007 International Energy

Outlook . United States Energy Information Administration. May 2007. . Retrieved 2009-07-11.[16] International Energy Outlook 2009[17] (PDF) Annual Energy Review 2008 (http://www. eia. doe. gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_3. pdf). United States Energy Information

Administration. 2009-06-29. DOE/EIA-0384(2008). . Retrieved 2009-07-11.[18] "Global Oil Consumption" (http://www. eia. doe. gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/demand_text.

htm#Global Oil Consumption). United States Energy Information Administration. . Retrieved 2008-07-27.[19] Wood, John H.; Long, Gary R.; Morehouse, David F. (2004-08-18). "Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios: The Future Is Neither as

Bleak or Rosy as Some Assert" (http://www. eia. doe. gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html). United States Energy Information Administration. . Retrieved 2008-07-27.

[20] "Domestic Demand for Refined Petroleum Products by Sector" (http://www. bts. gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/ table_04_03. html). United States Bureau of Transportation Statistics. . Retrieved 2007-12-20.

[21] "International Petroleum (Oil) Consumption Data" (http://www. eia. doe. gov/emeu/international/oilconsumption. html). United StatesEnergy Information Administration. . Retrieved 2007-12-20.

[22] (PDF) BP Statistical Review of Energy (http://www. bp. com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/ reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/ statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_review_2008. pdf). BP. June 2008. . Retrieved 2008-07-27.

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=BPhttp://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_review_2008.pdfhttp://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_review_2008.pdfhttp://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_review_2008.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Energy_Information_Administrationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Energy_Information_Administrationhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilconsumption.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Bureau_of_Transportation_Statisticshttp://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_04_03.htmlhttp://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_04_03.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Energy_Information_Administrationhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.htmlhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Energy_Information_Administrationhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/demand_text.htm#Global%20Oil%20Consumptionhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/demand_text.htm#Global%20Oil%20Consumptionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Energy_Information_Administrationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Energy_Information_Administrationhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_3.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Energy_Information_Administrationhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/ieo07/pdf/oil.pdfhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5099400.stmhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=USA_Todayhttp://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-03-08-3190491488_x.htmhttp://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-03-08-3190491488_x.htmhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2010/11/101109-peak-oil-iea-world-energy-outlook/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2010/11/101109-peak-oil-iea-world-energy-outlook/http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/14/is-peak-oil-behind-us/?partner=rss&emc=rsshttp://peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2006/09/asponl_2005_report.pdfhttp://peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2006/09/asponl_2005_report.pdfhttp://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/PeakOilAge.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Association_for_the_Study_of_Peak_Oil_and_Gashttp://www.aspo-usa.com/archives/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=243&Itemid=91http://www.aspo-usa.com/archives/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=243&Itemid=91http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Energy_Watch_Grouphttp://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-2007.pdfhttp://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-2007.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Princeton_Universityhttp://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.htmlhttp://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Kenneth_S._Deffeyeshttp://www.energybulletin.net/node/22381http://www.energybulletin.net/node/22381http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cambridge_Energy_Research_Associateshttp://web.archive.org/web/20080622222111/http://www.energybulletin.net/22381.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Elsevierhttp://www.iaee.org/en/students/best_papers/Adam_Brandt.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Shell_Oil_Companyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Texashttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=San_Antoniohttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=San_Antoniohttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=American_Petroleum_Institutehttp://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdfhttp://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=M._King_Hubberthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Collapse_%28film%29http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=PetroApocalypse_Now%3Fhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=What_a_Way_to_Go:_Life_at_the_End_of_Empirehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Crude_Impacthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=The_Power_of_Community:_How_Cuba_Survived_Peak_Oilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Crude_Awakening:_The_Oil_Crashhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=The_End_of_Suburbia

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[23] "Oil price 'may hit $200 a barrel'" (http://news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/business/7387203. stm). BBC News. 2008-05-07. . Retrieved2009-07-11.

[24] Mcdonald, Joe (2008-04-21). "Gas guzzlers a hit in China, where car sales are booming" (http://www. usatoday. com/money/economy/ 2008-04-21-2494500625_x. htm).USA Today . Associated Press. . Retrieved 2009-07-11.

[25] O'Brien, Kevin (2008-07-02). "China's Negative Economic Outlook" (http://seekingalpha. com/article/ 83459-china-s-negative-economic-outlook). Seeking Alpha. . Retrieved 2008-07-27.

[26] "China and India: A Rage for Oil" (http://www. businessweek. com/bwdaily/dnflash/aug2005/nf20050825_4692_db016. htm?chan=gb).

Business Week. 2005-08-25. . Retrieved 2008-07-27.[27] Goldstein, Steve (2009-01-26). "IEA sees first two-year oil demand fall in 26 years" (http://www. marketwatch. com/news/story/

iea-forecasts-first-two-year-oil/story. aspx?guid={046FC369-8971-4669-A3E2-F94414A8DA60}). The Wall Street Journal. . Retrieved2009-07-11.

[28] Gold, Russell; Campoy, Ana (2009-04-13). "Oil Industry Braces for Drop in U.S. Thirst for Gasoline" (http://online. wsj. com/article/ SB123957686061311925. html). The Wall Street Journal. . Retrieved 2009-04-21.

[29] Associated Press (21 December 2010). "US Gas Demand on Long-Term Decline After Hitting06 Peak" (http://www. thejakartaglobe.com/naturalresources/us-gas-demand-on-long-term-decline-after-hitting-06-peak/412956). Jakarta Globe . . Retrieved 10 January 2011.

[30] Alexander Kwiatkowski (2010-02-11). " IEA Raises 2010 Oil Demand Estimate on Recovery, Asia (http://www. bloomberg. com/apps/ news?pid=20601207&sid=apjXWXtwrjuE)". Bloomberg News.

[31] Baizhen Chua (2010-02-04). " China May Renew Record for Crude Oil Imports in 2010 (http://www. bloomberg. com/apps/ news?pid=20601207&sid=aHHwv15vY_Do)". Bloomberg.com.

[32] Duncan, Richard C (November 2001). "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge" (http://dieoff.

org/page224.htm). Population and Environment (Springer Netherlands)22 (5): 503 522. doi:10.1023/A:1010793021451. ISSN 1573-7810. . Retrieved2009-07-11.

[33] Total Midyear Population for the World: 1950-2050 (http://www. census. gov/compendia/statab/tables/09s1285. xls). United StatesCensus Bureau. 2008-06-18. . Retrieved 2007-12-20.

[34] Savinar, Matt. "Are We 'Running Out'? I Thought There Was 40 Years of the Stuff Left" (http://www. lifeaftertheoilcrash. net/). Life Afterthe Oil Crash. . Retrieved 2007-12-20.

[35] Mieszkowski, Katharine (2006-03-22). "The oil is going, the oil is going!" (http://www. salon. com/news/feature/2006/03/22/peakoil/).Salon.com (Salon Media Group). . Retrieved 2008-03-08.

[36] Bartlett, Albert A. (2004-08-27). "Thoughts on Long-Term Energy Supplies: Scientists and the Silent Lie" (http://fire. pppl. gov/ energy_population_pt_0704. pdf) (PDF). Physics Today (American Institute of Physics)57 (7): 53 57. ISSN 0031-9228. . Retrieved2008-03-08.

[37] "International Petroleum (Oil) Production Data" (http://www. eia. doe. gov/emeu/international/oilproduction. html). United States EnergyInformation Administration. . Retrieved 2008-03-31.

[38] "The World Factbook" (https://www. cia. gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx. html). United States Central IntelligenceAgency. 2008-03-20. . Retrieved 2008-03-31.

[39] "Table of World Oil Production 2006" (http://www. bp. com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/ reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2006/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/table_of_world_oil_production_2006.pdf) (PDF). BP Statistical Review of Energy . BP. June 2006. . Retrieved 2007-12-20.

[40] Goodchild, Peter (2007-10-29). "Peak Oil And Famine:Four Billion Deaths" (http://www. countercurrents. org/goodchild291007. htm).Countercurrents. . Retrieved 2008-08-21.

[41] A list of over 20 published articles and books from government and journal sources supporting this thesis have been compiled at Dieoff.org(http://dieoff. org/) in the section"Food, Land, Water, and Population."

[42] Pfeiffer, Dale Allen (2004). "Eating Fossil Fuels" (http://www. fromthewilderness. com/free/ww3/100303_eating_oil. html). From TheWilderness Publications. . Retrieved 2008-08-21.

[43] P. Crabb, North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Scientific Affairs Division (2000). " Implementing ecological integrity: restoring regionaland global environmental and human health (http://books. google. com/books?id=denet95NNzkC&pg=PA411&dq&hl=en#v=onepage&q=&f=false)". Springer. p.411. ISBN 0792363515

[44] Bradley, David (2004-02-06) (PDF). A Great Potential: The Great Lakes as a Regional Renewable Energy Source (http://greengold. org/ wind/documents/107. pdf). Buffalo's Green Gold Development Corporation. . Retrieved 2008-10-04.

[45] Hirsch, Tim (2001-12-24). "Iceland launches energy revolution" (http://news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/science/nature/1727312. stm). BBCNews. . Retrieved 2008-03-23.

[46] Donnelly, John (2005-12-11). "Price rise and new deep-water technology opened up offshore drilling" (http://www. boston. com/news/ world/articles/2005/12/11/price_rise_and_new_deep_water_technology_opened_up_offshore_drilling/). The Boston Globe. . Retrieved2008-08-21.

[47] " The Next Crisis: Prepare for Peak Oil (http://online. wsj. com/article/SB10001424052748704140104575057260398292350. html)". TheWall Street Journal. February 11, 2010.

[48] Campbell, C. J. (December 2000). "Peak Oil Presentation at the Technical University of Clausthal" (http://energycrisis. org/de/lecture.html). energycrisis.org. . Retrieved 2008-08-21.

http://energycrisis.org/de/lecture.htmlhttp://energycrisis.org/de/lecture.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=The_Wall_Street_Journalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=The_Wall_Street_Journalhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704140104575057260398292350.htmlhttp://www.boston.com/news/world/articles/2005/12/11/price_rise_and_new_deep_water_technology_opened_up_offshore_drilling/http://www.boston.com/news/world/articles/2005/12/11/price_rise_and_new_deep_water_technology_opened_up_offshore_drilling/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/1727312.stmhttp://greengold.org/wind/documents/107.pdfhttp://greengold.org/wind/documents/107.pdfhttp://books.google.com/books?id=denet95NNzkC&pg=PA411&dq&hl=en#v=onepage&q=&f=falsehttp://books.google.com/books?id=denet95NNzkC&pg=PA411&dq&hl=en#v=onepage&q=&f=falsehttp://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100303_eating_oil.htmlhttp://dieoff.org/http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Countercurrentshttp://www.countercurrents.org/goodchild291007.htmhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=BPhttp://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2006/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/table_of_world_oil_production_2006.pdfhttp://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2006/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/table_of_world_oil_production_2006.pdfhttp://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2006/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/table_of_world_oil_production_2006.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Central_Intelligence_Agencyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Central_Intelligence_Agencyhttps://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Energy_Information_Administrationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Energy_Information_Administrationhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilproduction.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=American_Institute_of_Physicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Physics_Todayhttp://fire.pppl.gov/energy_population_pt_0704.pdfhttp://fire.pppl.gov/energy_population_pt_0704.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Salon.comhttp://www.salon.com/news/feature/2006/03/22/peakoil/http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=United_States_Census_Bureauhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=United_States_Census_Bureauhttp://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/tables/09s1285.xlshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Population_and_Environmenthttp://dieoff.org/page224.htmhttp://dieoff.org/page224.htmhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Bloomberg.comhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=aHHwv15vY_Dohttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=aHHwv15vY_Dohttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Bloomberg_Newshttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=apjXWXtwrjuEhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=apjXWXtwrjuEhttp://www.thejakartaglobe.com/naturalresources/us-gas-demand-on-long-term-decline-after-hitting-06-peak/412956http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/naturalresources/us-gas-demand-on-long-term-decline-after-hitting-06-peak/412956http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123957686061311925.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB123957686061311925.htmlhttp://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/iea-forecasts-first-two-year-oil/story.aspx?guid={046FC369-8971-4669-A3E2-F94414A8DA60}http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/iea-forecasts-first-two-year-oil/story.aspx?guid={046FC369-8971-4669-A3E2-F94414A8DA60}http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Business_Weekhttp://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/aug2005/nf20050825_4692_db016.htm?chan=gbhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Seeking_Alphahttp://seekingalpha.com/article/83459-china-s-negative-economic-outlookhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/83459-china-s-negative-economic-outlookhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=USA_Todayhttp://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-04-21-2494500625_x.htmhttp://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-04-21-2494500625_x.htmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7387203.stm

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[74] Kovarik, Bill. "The oil reserve fallacy: Proven reserves are not a measure of future supply" (http://www. runet. edu/~wkovarik/oil/ 3unconventional. html). . Retrieved 2009-07-11.

[75] Dusseault, Maurice (2002) (PDF). Emerging Technology for Economic Heavy Oil Development (http://www. energy. gov. ab. ca/ OilSands/pdfs/RPT_Chops_app2. pdf). Alberta Department of Energy. . Retrieved 2008-05-24.

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