pepper report final

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ASTA Pepper Crop Report Alan Milroy Jupiter Commodities, Inc.

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Black Pepper ,Report Final,crop report

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  • ASTAPepperCropReport

    AlanMilroyJupiterCommodities,Inc.

  • VietnamCropFebruary April2012

    DongNai 11,000/13,000mtBinhPhuoc 28,000/30,000mtGiaLai 29,000/32,000mtDakNong 15,000/17,000mtDak Lak 15,000/17,000mtOthers 22,000/24,000mt===============================Total 120,000/133,000mt

  • IndianCropFebruary May2012

    KarnatakaregionChickmanglore 10,000/12,000mtHassan/Saleshupur/Coorg 8,000/9,000mt

    KeralaregionIdukki 10,000/11,000mtWynad 7,000/8,000mtOthers(Kotiayam/Calicutetc)9,000/10,000mt======================================

    Total 44,000/50,000mt

  • BrazilCrop

    August November2012

    Para(NorthBrazil) 29,000/31,000mtEspirtoSantos (SouthBrazil) 6,000/7000mt=======================================Total 35,000/38,000mt

  • IndonesiaCropJan March2012 4,500mtJuly September2012 22,000/26,000mt=========================================Total 26,500/30,500mt

    Note:Jan MarchcroppredominatelyLightberries

  • Sarawak(Malaysia)Crop

    April June2012

    Sarawak 10,000/12,000mt

    Note:Includesabout40%whitepepperand60%blackpepper.

  • OtherAreaCrop2012SriLanka 9,000/11,000mtblackpeppermostlyfordistillationMadagascar 1,500mtblackpepperFAQgradesCambodia 4,000mtblackpeppermostlyFAQgradesChina 21,000/22,000mt MostlywhitepepperMisc. 4,000/5,000mt==========================Total 39,500/43,000mt

  • BlackPepperProduction2012 CarryoverasofJanuary1,2012

    Vietnam 5,000mtIndia 15,000mtBrazil 13,000mtIndonesia 6,000mtSarawak 7,000mtOthers 4,000mt===========================SubTotal 50,000mt

    Adjustmentsforwhiteproduction()Vietnam 1,000mtBrazil 500mtSarawak 2,000mtOthers 2,000mt============================Subtotal 5,500mt

    Totals44,500mt

    Vietnam 120/133,000mtIndia 45/50,000mtBrazil 35/38,000mtIndonesia 26.5/30,500mtSarawak 10/12,000mtOthers 39.5/43,000mt============================SubTotal276,000/306,000mt

    Adjustmentsforwhiteproduction()Vietnam 25,000mtBrazil 3,500mtSarawak 4,500mtOthers 26,000mt============================Subtotal 59,000mt

    Totals217,000/247,000mt

    Totalavailableblackpepper2012:261,000mtupto291,500mt

  • WhitePepperProduction2012

    Indonesia 16,000mtVietnam 25,000mtBrazil 3,500mtSarawak 4,500mtOthers 26,000mt============================SubTotal75,000mt

    CarryoverasofJanuary1,2012

    Indonesia 10,000mtVietnam 1,000mtBrazil 500mtSarawak 2,000mtOthers 2,000mt===========================SubTotal 15,500mt

    Totalavailablewhitepepper2012:90,500mt

  • Totalblackpepperproduction2012 217,000mt/247,000mtTotalblackpeppercarryover01/01/201244,500mt========================================================Totalblackpepperavailable2012261,500/291,500mt

    Totalwhitepepperproduction2012 75,000mtTotalwhitepeppercarryover01/01/2012 15,500mt========================================================Totalwhitepepperavailable201290,500mt

    Totalblack&whitepepperavailable2012352,000/382,000mt

  • ExportsBlack&WhitePepper,January March2012

    Vietnam30,900mt

    India6,000mt

    Indonesia7,000mt

    Brazil6,500mt

    Misc.5,000mt

    Total=55,400mt

  • ConsumptionofBlackandWhitePepper

    Consuming/NonProducingAreas 187,000/205,000mt

    NorthAmerica70,000/75,000mt

    Europe70,000/75,000mt

    Asia/PacificRim25,000/28,000mt

    MiddleEast12,000/15,000mt

    Africa10,000/12,000mt

    ProducingCountries/Domestic 127,000/136,000mt

    Brazil&South/CentralAmerica7,000/9,000mt

    Asia(Viet/Indo/India/China/Etc)120,000/125,000mt

    TotalWorldConsumption:314,000/341,000mt

    SubTotal:127,000/136,000mt

    SubTotal:187,000/205,000mt

  • Totalworldproduction 292,000mt/322,000mtTotalworldconsumption 314,000mt/341,000mt========================================================Difference2012prod.vs.consumption ()22,000/19,000mtAddedcarryover (+)60,000/60,000mt========================================================TotalAvailable/Consumption38,000/41,000mt

    TotalofBothBlackandWhitePepperfor2012

    DEFICIT

    EXCESS

  • Consumption Ingeneralworldconsumptionhasincreasedby3%perannum.

    ThemaingrowthhoweverhasbeeninIndiaandAsiaPacificareas.

    TheConsumptionofpepperisgrowingnotsomuchwithincreasedpopulationbutmajorchangesininternationaleatinghabits.

    Consumptionisalsogrowingwiththeinternationalincreaseofmiddleclassindevelopingcountries.

    Iftheworldfinancialandpoliticalmarketsremainreasonablystablewecanexpectacontinuedgrowthinconsumptiononaglobalscale.

    Pepperdemandshouldbeconsideredbasicallyinelasticbasedoncontinuedhigherconsumptionduringthisperiodofhighprices.

  • Production Generallyspeakingweshouldexpectproductiontofallinthepresent

    producingcountries LandpricesinnonCommunistproducingcountriesisincreasingrapidly

    duetoincreasedpopulations Laborcostsareincreasingthroughoutproducingareas Productioncosts fertilizer irrigation watercostsincreasingaswell

    energyprices Waterandirrigationbecomingmoreandmoreanissueasresidential

    areascompetewithfarmers Pepperhascompetingcropssucharerubber,coffee,cocoa,freshfruits,

    palmoil,etc. Withpotentialglobalwarmingwecanexpectmoreextremeweather

    patterns NewareasshalldevelopsuchasCambodia Laos andperhapsAfrica

    inareasalongtheequatorialband

  • Conclusion

    Worldpepperproductionversusworldconsumptionisaboutevenwithinthemarginoferrorofabout20,000mt.

    Carryoverstocksinproducingcountrieshasfallenbyatleast50%overlast4yearsandcanassumewillnotberebuiltatthesehighpricelevels.

    ExpectedcontinuedgrowthinworldpopulationsespeciallyAsiaandPacificrimcountries.

    Continuedglobal"fusion"ofeatingculturesandincreaseinconsumptionofprocessed/readymadefoods .

    Variableseffectingconclusion: Economy exchangerates overallincreaseinvirtuallyall

    commodityprices geopoliticalunrestinvariouspartsoftheworld.

  • Thankyou

  • SEEYOUIN2013!

    PLEASELEAVEMEETINGEVALUATIONS

    WITHASTASTAFFTHANKYOU!