pepper report final
DESCRIPTION
Black Pepper ,Report Final,crop reportTRANSCRIPT
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ASTAPepperCropReport
AlanMilroyJupiterCommodities,Inc.
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VietnamCropFebruary April2012
DongNai 11,000/13,000mtBinhPhuoc 28,000/30,000mtGiaLai 29,000/32,000mtDakNong 15,000/17,000mtDak Lak 15,000/17,000mtOthers 22,000/24,000mt===============================Total 120,000/133,000mt
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IndianCropFebruary May2012
KarnatakaregionChickmanglore 10,000/12,000mtHassan/Saleshupur/Coorg 8,000/9,000mt
KeralaregionIdukki 10,000/11,000mtWynad 7,000/8,000mtOthers(Kotiayam/Calicutetc)9,000/10,000mt======================================
Total 44,000/50,000mt
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BrazilCrop
August November2012
Para(NorthBrazil) 29,000/31,000mtEspirtoSantos (SouthBrazil) 6,000/7000mt=======================================Total 35,000/38,000mt
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IndonesiaCropJan March2012 4,500mtJuly September2012 22,000/26,000mt=========================================Total 26,500/30,500mt
Note:Jan MarchcroppredominatelyLightberries
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Sarawak(Malaysia)Crop
April June2012
Sarawak 10,000/12,000mt
Note:Includesabout40%whitepepperand60%blackpepper.
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OtherAreaCrop2012SriLanka 9,000/11,000mtblackpeppermostlyfordistillationMadagascar 1,500mtblackpepperFAQgradesCambodia 4,000mtblackpeppermostlyFAQgradesChina 21,000/22,000mt MostlywhitepepperMisc. 4,000/5,000mt==========================Total 39,500/43,000mt
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BlackPepperProduction2012 CarryoverasofJanuary1,2012
Vietnam 5,000mtIndia 15,000mtBrazil 13,000mtIndonesia 6,000mtSarawak 7,000mtOthers 4,000mt===========================SubTotal 50,000mt
Adjustmentsforwhiteproduction()Vietnam 1,000mtBrazil 500mtSarawak 2,000mtOthers 2,000mt============================Subtotal 5,500mt
Totals44,500mt
Vietnam 120/133,000mtIndia 45/50,000mtBrazil 35/38,000mtIndonesia 26.5/30,500mtSarawak 10/12,000mtOthers 39.5/43,000mt============================SubTotal276,000/306,000mt
Adjustmentsforwhiteproduction()Vietnam 25,000mtBrazil 3,500mtSarawak 4,500mtOthers 26,000mt============================Subtotal 59,000mt
Totals217,000/247,000mt
Totalavailableblackpepper2012:261,000mtupto291,500mt
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WhitePepperProduction2012
Indonesia 16,000mtVietnam 25,000mtBrazil 3,500mtSarawak 4,500mtOthers 26,000mt============================SubTotal75,000mt
CarryoverasofJanuary1,2012
Indonesia 10,000mtVietnam 1,000mtBrazil 500mtSarawak 2,000mtOthers 2,000mt===========================SubTotal 15,500mt
Totalavailablewhitepepper2012:90,500mt
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Totalblackpepperproduction2012 217,000mt/247,000mtTotalblackpeppercarryover01/01/201244,500mt========================================================Totalblackpepperavailable2012261,500/291,500mt
Totalwhitepepperproduction2012 75,000mtTotalwhitepeppercarryover01/01/2012 15,500mt========================================================Totalwhitepepperavailable201290,500mt
Totalblack&whitepepperavailable2012352,000/382,000mt
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ExportsBlack&WhitePepper,January March2012
Vietnam30,900mt
India6,000mt
Indonesia7,000mt
Brazil6,500mt
Misc.5,000mt
Total=55,400mt
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ConsumptionofBlackandWhitePepper
Consuming/NonProducingAreas 187,000/205,000mt
NorthAmerica70,000/75,000mt
Europe70,000/75,000mt
Asia/PacificRim25,000/28,000mt
MiddleEast12,000/15,000mt
Africa10,000/12,000mt
ProducingCountries/Domestic 127,000/136,000mt
Brazil&South/CentralAmerica7,000/9,000mt
Asia(Viet/Indo/India/China/Etc)120,000/125,000mt
TotalWorldConsumption:314,000/341,000mt
SubTotal:127,000/136,000mt
SubTotal:187,000/205,000mt
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Totalworldproduction 292,000mt/322,000mtTotalworldconsumption 314,000mt/341,000mt========================================================Difference2012prod.vs.consumption ()22,000/19,000mtAddedcarryover (+)60,000/60,000mt========================================================TotalAvailable/Consumption38,000/41,000mt
TotalofBothBlackandWhitePepperfor2012
DEFICIT
EXCESS
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Consumption Ingeneralworldconsumptionhasincreasedby3%perannum.
ThemaingrowthhoweverhasbeeninIndiaandAsiaPacificareas.
TheConsumptionofpepperisgrowingnotsomuchwithincreasedpopulationbutmajorchangesininternationaleatinghabits.
Consumptionisalsogrowingwiththeinternationalincreaseofmiddleclassindevelopingcountries.
Iftheworldfinancialandpoliticalmarketsremainreasonablystablewecanexpectacontinuedgrowthinconsumptiononaglobalscale.
Pepperdemandshouldbeconsideredbasicallyinelasticbasedoncontinuedhigherconsumptionduringthisperiodofhighprices.
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Production Generallyspeakingweshouldexpectproductiontofallinthepresent
producingcountries LandpricesinnonCommunistproducingcountriesisincreasingrapidly
duetoincreasedpopulations Laborcostsareincreasingthroughoutproducingareas Productioncosts fertilizer irrigation watercostsincreasingaswell
energyprices Waterandirrigationbecomingmoreandmoreanissueasresidential
areascompetewithfarmers Pepperhascompetingcropssucharerubber,coffee,cocoa,freshfruits,
palmoil,etc. Withpotentialglobalwarmingwecanexpectmoreextremeweather
patterns NewareasshalldevelopsuchasCambodia Laos andperhapsAfrica
inareasalongtheequatorialband
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Conclusion
Worldpepperproductionversusworldconsumptionisaboutevenwithinthemarginoferrorofabout20,000mt.
Carryoverstocksinproducingcountrieshasfallenbyatleast50%overlast4yearsandcanassumewillnotberebuiltatthesehighpricelevels.
ExpectedcontinuedgrowthinworldpopulationsespeciallyAsiaandPacificrimcountries.
Continuedglobal"fusion"ofeatingculturesandincreaseinconsumptionofprocessed/readymadefoods .
Variableseffectingconclusion: Economy exchangerates overallincreaseinvirtuallyall
commodityprices geopoliticalunrestinvariouspartsoftheworld.
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