peter voser - credit suisse 2013 energy summit in vail, colorado, february 5, 2013
DESCRIPTION
Peter Voser, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc presented at the Credit Suisse 2013 Energy Summit in Vail, ColoradoTRANSCRIPT
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 1
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
COMPANY UPDATE
CREDIT SUISSE 2013 ENERGY SUMMIT VAIL, FEBRUARY 5 2013
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
DELIVERING COMPETITIVE & INNOVATIVE PERFORMANCE
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 2
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC COMPANY UPDATE PETER VOSER CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 3
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions. Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact. The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this announcement "Shell", "Shell Group" and "Royal Dutch Shell" are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words "we", "us" and "our" are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. "Subsidiaries", "Shell subsidiaries" and "Shell companies" as used in this announcement refer to companies in which Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as "associated companies" or "associates" and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to as "jointly controlled entities". In this announcement, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as "equity-accounted investments". The term "Shell interest" is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 23 per cent shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest. This announcement contains forward looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Shell and the Shell Group. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell and the Shell Group to market risks and statements expressing managemen t‟s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as "anticipate", "believe", "could", "estimate", "expect", "goals", "intend", "may", "objectives", "outlook", "plan", "probably", "project", "risks", "seek", "should", "target", "will" and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and the Shell Group and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward looking statements included in this announcement, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell's products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward looking statements contained in this announcement are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell's 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2011 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward looking statement speaks only as of the date of this announcement, 5 February 2013. Neither Shell nor any of its subsidiaries nor the Shell Group undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward looking statements contained in this announcement. Shell may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this announcement that the SEC strictly prohibits Shell from including in its filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in Shell's Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 4
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
ON TRACK FOR 2012-15 TARGETS Maintaining our long term focus; managing short-term headwinds 2012 reported CCS earnings $27 billion, total CFFO $46 billion; delivering growth Expected Q1 2013 dividend increase 4.7%, $0.45 per share, reflecting growth momentum GROWTH DELIVERY 12 billion boe resources on stream + 20 billion boe in development funnel Exploration & deals add ~4 billion boe resources potential 2012 Growth priority: integrated gas, deep-water, resources plays
CAPITAL DISCIPLINE + TRACK RECORD 2010-12 start-ups reach >10% of 2012 CFFO & ~20% of 2012 production; more to come Robust 2013-17 project flow Strong build in optionality - capital constraints driving hard portfolio choices
RECONFIRMING OUR GROWTH AGENDA
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 5
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
1
2
3
4
5
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
„GOAL ZERO‟ ON SAFETY injuries – TRCF/million working hours million working hours
ENERGY INTENSITY - REFINERIES Energy Intensity Index (EEITM)
SPILLS - OPERATIONAL Volume in thousand tonnes
0
2
4
6
8
10
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
FOCUS ON SAFETY AND ASSET INTEGRITY 2012 UPDATE
HSSE PRIORITY PERFORMANCE + TRANSPARENCY
Working hours TRCF
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 6
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT
$ billion
UPSTREAM Growth strategy; price upside Priority: deep-water, integrated gas, resources plays DOWNSTREAM Optimize re-shaped portfolio Selective growth CLIMATE CHANGE Grow gas and biofuels CCS and energy efficiency FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Investing for growth and competitive payout Through-cycle returns and risk management
STRATEGY AND CAPITAL ALLOCATION
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2013 2012 2013
SUSTAINED INVESTMENT: ~80% UPSTREAM
Europe Africa, Middle East, CIS
Asia Pacific Americas
Upstream Downstream + Corporate Acquisitions Divestments
DS + Corp.
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 7
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
RECONFIRMING OUR OUTLOOK
2012 OUTLOOK
Cash flow from operations $46 billion ($43 billion ex W/C)
2012-15: $175-200 billion
Net capex $30 billion 2012-15: $120-130 billion
Dividends distributed $10.8 billion 2013 >$11 billion
Oil and gas production outcome 3.3 million boe/d 2017/18: ~4.0 million boe/d
Gearing 9% 0-30%
NO CHANGE TO SHELL’S AMBITIOUS TARGETS DIVIDEND INCREASE REFLECTS DELIVERY EXPECTED STRONG PROJECT PIPELINE AND OPTIONS CAPITAL CEILING DRIVES HARD CHOICES
CFFO & capex outlook @$80-$100/bbl Brent and assumes improved US gas and Downstream environment from 2012; CFFO excludes working capital movements
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 8
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
14
17
20
2.5
3
3.5
-10
10
30
2010 2011 2012
0
20
40
2010 2011 2012
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2010-2012
EARNINGS $ billion CCS
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS $ billion
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN
TSR is averaged across year-end. Source: Datastream
VOLUMES million boe per day million tonnes per annum
Oil + Gas production volumes
2010-2012 asset sales
LNG sales volumes
IMPROVING OUR PERFORMANCE
Other majors
Upstream Downstream
Corporate 2010 2011 2012
Shell
Divestments/other
+45%
+ ~70%
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 9
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0
5
10
-10
-5
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: ~20 START-UPS 2010-12 $ billion
million boe per day
Cash flow Organic capex
2010-12 TRACK RECORD
North America: tight gas
Norway: Gjoa
Canada: AOSP-1
Singapore: Chemicals
Nigeria: Gbaran Ubie Ph1
USA: Perdido
Netherlands: Schoonebeek
Qatar: Qatargas 4 LNG
Qatar: Pearl GTL
Oman: Qarn Alam
Iraq:West Qurna
NA: tight gas
Australia Pluto LNG T1
2010
2011
2012
Production (RHS)
2012 IMPACT FROM 10-12 PROJECTS >10% OF GROUP CFFO ~20% OF PRODUCTION
FURTHER GROWTH POTENTIAL
Brasil: Raízen
CFFO and capex outlook at $100 Brent
Qatar + AOSP-1 CFFO impact
Qatar: Pearl GTL ramp-up
USA: Caesar Tonga Ph 1 Malaysia: Gumusut-Kakap (early production)
Oman: Harweel
Raízen
Qatar: Pearl GTL
START-UPS 2010-12
Malaysia: Gumusut-Kakap
NA: tight gas/shales Eagle Ford
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 10
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
0%
10%
20%
30%
0
10
20
30
2009 2010 2011 2012
Net Debt Gearing (RHS)
45
55
65
0
2
4
6
8
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 13Q1 rolling
0
20
40
60
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140
CASH GENERATION $ billion $ billion
Cash flow from operations Asset sales
Acquisitions Capex + equity acc. investments
STRONG BALANCE SHEET $ billion
DIVIDEND TRACK RECORD $ billion
$ billion
Dividends declared
FTSE 100 total dividends paid (RHS)
CASH FLOW AND PAYOUT
Gearing range
STRONG BALANCE SHEET
GENERATING SURPLUS CASH
SUSTAINED DIVIDEND PERFORMANCE
Sources Uses Sources Uses
Dividend and buyback
UP STREAM
DOWN STREAM
UP STREAM
DOWN STREAM
2010-12 2012
CFFO excluding working capital movements
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 11
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
DIVESTMENTS 2010-2012 ACQUISITIONS 2010-2012
GROWTH OIL + GAS: Resources plays Increased stakes in Shell fields New exploration acreage
SELECTIVE GROWTH DOWNSTREAM: Brazil biofuels, retail, Gasnor gas to transport
REFOCUSED DOWNSTREAM: Europe; Africa; Latin-America
LATE LIFE/NON-STRATEGIC UPSTREAM: Upstream ~130 kboe/d Strategic partnering
$21 billion
WORKING OUR PORTFOLIO FOR GROWTH & CAPITAL EFFICIENCY
$17 billion
Upstream Downstream
Upstream Downstream
Permian, USA
Beryl, UK Holstein, Gulf of Mexico
Onshore assets, Nigeria
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 12
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
0
10
20
30
40
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CONVERTING RESOURCES TO PRODUCTION…
billion boe
Capital in service Capital other
Return on capital in service (RHS) Return on capital employed (RHS)
HYDROCARBON MATURATION + RETURNS
…AND RETURNS
$ billion %
SUSTAINED PROJECT FLOW 12 BILLION BOE ON STREAM 20 BILLION BOE IN ~60 PROJECTS IN FUNNEL
-5
5
15
25
35 Longer-term upside
Pluto (Woodside) Harweel NA tight gas/shales Eagle Ford Caesar Tonga Gumusut-Kakap (early oil)
Tempa Rossa Fram Malikai Forcados Yokri Southern Swamp AOSP debottl. NA tight gas/shales
Abadi FLNG Phase 1 Tukau Timur Zaedyus Zabazaba
2008 2009 2010 2011
On-stream Under Construction
Study Production
2012
Gbaran Ubie Ph2 Rab Harweel Erha North ph3 ML South BC-10 ph3 Eagle Ford Permian
Majnoon FCP Petai Amal Steam Kashagan Ph1 BC10 Ph2 NWS North Rankin 2 AOSP debottlenecking
2013 E
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 13
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
0
10
20
30
INVESTMENT PRIORITIES
LONGER TERM
GROWTH PRIORITY
ENGINES
Reserves-rich plays with long-term drivers Iraq, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Heavy Oil & Arctic Slower pace + capital allocation
Integrated infrastructure + global capabilities
Standardized developments + technology
Extending cash flows through technology Focused exploration + licence renewals
Long-term engine; taking steps to enhance profitability Selective growth in chemicals, biofuels, growth markets
Leveraging Shell‟s scale + market growth
ORGANIC CAPEX 2013 $ billion
INVESTMENT CHOICES DRIVEN ON A GLOBAL THEMATIC BASIS MORE EFFICIENT DEPLOYMENT OF CAPITAL, PEOPLE, TECHNOLOGY
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
RESOURCES PLAYS
DEEP-WATER
INTEGRATED GAS
UPSTREAM
DOWNSTREAM
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 14
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
US gas-to- chemicals
Long-term engine Cost + portfolio steps to
enhance profitability
Selective growth in chemicals, biofuels, growth markets
DOWNSTREAM ENGINE
Under development Options
Qatar chemicals
Gas-to-chemicals US
China
Singapore chemicals Raízen Port Arthur Nanhai chemicals
2006 2010 2011 2013 FUTURE
2012+ deals
Qatar chemicals
Lubes Russia
LNG to transport
Rhineland Connect
China Retail + Lubes China refining and chemicals
Gasnor acquisition
Clyde refinery conversion to terminal
Key country
Singapore Chemicals Cracker debottleneck
SADAF expansion
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 15
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
UPSTREAM GROWTH PORTFOLIO UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2012 FID Shell operated
Kashagan Phase1
Majnoon FCP
2017+ 0.1 mboe/d
Amal Steam
Bab THG &HB-2
Bonga North West
Forcados Yokri
Fram
Gumusut - Kakap
North Rankin 2
SAS
Southern Swamp AG
Corrib Clair Ph2
Gorgon LNG T1-3
Malikai
NWS Gas – GWF – Phase A
Sabah Gas Kebabangan (KBB)
Schiehallion Redevelopment
Tempa Rossa
Prelude
Wheatstone
AOSP debottlenecking
Eagle Ford
BC-10 phase 2
Cardamom Mars B, W.Boreas, S. Deimos
North American tight gas
North American liquids rich shales
2015-2016 0.3 mboe/d
2013-2014 0.5 mboe/d
2012 start-ups 0.2 mboe/d
DEEP-WATER
UPSTREAM ENGINE
INTEGRATED GAS
RESOURCES PLAYS
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
Caesar Tonga Ph 1
Pluto (Woodside)
Harweel
Start-up/ Peak Production
Production @ $80 Brent scenario
~30 PROJECTS 7 BILLION BOE
RESOURCES 0.9 MBOE/D
North American tight gas
Petai
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 16
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Leveraging Shell‟s scale + market growth
Technology and project delivery capabilities
Potential doubling of capacity
2012: ~0.8* mboe/d; 20 mtpa
LNG
INDUSTRY-LEADING INTEGRATED GAS PORTFOLIO
Green Corridor GTT
Hazira
0
2
4
6
2012 2013
CAPEX RESOURCES $ billion
On stream Under construction
8.2 billion boe
Study
Under construction
On stream
Liquefaction Regas Gas-to-transport GTL
North America: developing new gas value chain options
Pearl GTL Ramp up 2012
2012 progress
Australia: major growth projects under construction
0
20
40
SHELL GLOBAL LNG GROWTH
On stream Options Under construction 2012 ~2020+ 2007
million tonnes per annum
* includes feedgas from non-integrated ventures
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 17
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
NORTH AMERICA AUSTRALIA/INDONESIA
7 mtpa under construction New LNG + FLNG options under study Increased Browse equity; Prelude dilution
0.3 mtpa gas to transport under construction LNG options, GTL, Gas-to-Chemicals under study
for 2014+ FID
NORTH AMERICA & AUSTRALIA INTEGRATED GAS CLOSE-UP
Under construction On stream
Options
Construction Project
Specifications
Concept Selection
Feasibility Study
FID Execute Define Select Assess Start up
Operate
Ramp-up to full capacity
LNG Canada US Gas-to-Chemicals
Elba LNG Sunrise LNG
Gorgon LNG T4
Green Corridor GTT NWS GWF
Wheatstone LNG Gorgon LNG T1-3
Prelude FLNG North Rankin 2
US GTL Gulf Coast LNG Options
Great Lakes GTT Gulf Coast GTT
Arrow LNG Abadi LNG Browse LNG
Northwest Shelf Pluto (Woodside)
Pennsylvania Gas-to-Chemicals
Gulf Coast LNG Options
GTL
Green Corridor GTT
LNG Canada
Great Lakes GTT
Gulf Coast GTT Elba LNG
Browse BCT LNG
Prelude FLNG
Gorgon LNG
Sunrise FLNG Abadi FLNG
Arrow
Pluto LNG 1(Woodside)
Wheatstone LNG
North Rankin 2 NWS GWF Ph1
Gorgon T4
North West Shelf
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 18
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Established production leadership
Standardized developments + production technology
Frontier exploration potential
2012: 0.3 mboe/d
GLOBAL DEEP-WATER LEADING IOC DEEP-WATER PORTFOLIO
Under construction On stream
New exploration
Malaysia / Brunei Gulf of Mexico
Brazil
Mars-B Cardamom
BC-10 ph2
Gumusut-Kakap Malikai Sabah Gas Kebabangan KBB Petai
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013
CAPEX RESOURCES $ billion
On stream Under construction
3.3 billion boe
Study
Nigeria
Perdido Spar
Bonga North West
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 19
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
0
1
2
3
2010 2011 2012
BUILDING UP GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IN RESOURCES PLAYS TIGHT/SHALE OIL AND GAS
E&A
Changbei
Karoo Neuquen
Ukraine Turkey
Sichuan
Positive initial exploration
Germany
Egypt Oman
Colombia
On stream
Liquids rich shale
Gas Liquids Rich
Tight gas
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012* 2013
CAPEX RESOURCES $ bln
Future potential (prospective resources)
10.6 billion boe
2012 Portfolio Build
On stream Under construction Study LRS Dry gas
BUILDING NEW TIGHT/SHALE ACREAGE
0
5
10
15
20
0
20
40
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Acreage
Entry cost
RESOURCES ADDED
Liquids Gas Resources-Based Deals
2010-2012 DELIVERY: ~7 BILLION BOE ~$3/BOE (E&A+DEALS)
Permian Marcellus Eagle Ford
Arrow
billion boe
„000 km2 cumulative gross acreage
cumulative spend $ billion
LRS
Sao Francisco Arrow
*2012 includes $3.5 billion acreage deals
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 20
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
0
1
2
0.0
0.2
0.4
2010 2011 2012 2013E
PRODUCTION
NORTH AMERICA RESOURCES PLAYS PROGRESS TIGHT/SHALE OIL AND GAS
~30,000 km2 portfolio, 60% liquids-rich
Eagle Ford LRS development underway
Drilling focus shifted to LRS from dry gas
~10,000 km2 new acreage 2012 Permian acquisition $1.9
billion Additions to existing positions
Integrated gas options
Liquids
mboe/day
Gas
-2 0 2 4 6 8
10
2010 2011 2012 2013E LRS
$ billion
CAPEX
Dry gas
bcfe/day
Divestments
Piloncillo, Eagle Ford
Acquisitions
Gas
Positive initial exploration / appraisal
Pinedale
Groundbirch Deep Basin
Foothills
Utica
Permian
Exshaw
Niobrara
Mississippi Lime
Eagle Ford
Montney
Canol
Monterey
Haynesville
Marcellus
Liquids Rich Shales
Duvernay
Onstream
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 21
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
0
5
10
15
20
0
10
20
30
2013 CAPEX & OUTCOME
$ billion
CFFO outlook @$100 Brent and assumes improved US gas environment from 2012; CFFO excludes working capital movements
TURNING NEW INVESTMENT INTO CASH FLOW
SPENDING PROGRAMME + NEAR-TERM CASH FLOW
Exploration & Appraisal
2017+
2015-16
Key
Proj
ects
Star
t-up
Upstream Base, Downstream +
Corporate
Longer Term 2012-15 CFFO
2013-14
~50% of capex on stream by 2015
IMPACT OF KEY UPSTREAM START-UPS
$ billion
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2010-12
2013+
2010-12
2013+
ORGANIC CAPEX
CFFO
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 22
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
0
10
20
30
40
50
ON TRACK FOR AMBITIOUS CFFO GROWTH + INVESTMENT PLAN ($100 scenario) $ billion
1 Portfolio/Choice negative impact on 2012 cash flow target: reduced NA gas drilling, divestments, project slippage
2 CFFO & capex outlook at $100, assumes improved US gas, WTI and Downstream environment from 2012; CFFO excludes working capital movements 3 Potential impact in $100 scenario from continuation of 2012 Downstream environment, Henry Hub, WCS and WTI discounts
Cash flow from operations/ex working capital Net Capital Investment
Dividends + buybacks Macro sensitivity3
Growth outlook: New projects Enhanced unit cash flow Macro uplift
Investment for sustained growth 2012-15: ~$120-130 billion net spend >$16 billion asset sales
PRIORITY ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
2009 – 2012 average
2012 – 2015 average potential 2
2012
macro Portfolio/ Choice1
$91/bbl
$112/bbl
$100/bbl
2012 trend
Free cashflow
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 23
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
3.0
3.2
3.4
0
2
4
2011 2012 17-18 avg
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Growth Priority
Longer Term
Upstream Engine
OIL & GAS PRODUCTION + OUTCOMES million boe/day
Production + potential 2012+ asset sales
PRODUCTION & POTENTIAL
2012 PERFORMANCE million boe/day
Controllable
PRODUCTION IS AN OUTCOME OF INVESTMENT DECISIONS CASHFLOW GROWTH > PRODUCTION GROWTH MULTIPLE PATHWAYS TO DELIVERY OF TARGETS
UPSTREAM CAPEX + CFFO SCENARIO
2012 2013 2015 potential
2012 Capex: CFFO:
$ billion
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 24
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
MAINTAINING OUR FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK
CASH PERFORMANCE
$175-$200 billion CFFO 2012-15 Grow free cash flow CFFO drives investment + payout
INVESTMENT
$120-$130 billion net capex 2012-15 ~$33 billion net capex 2013 Affordability, profitability, portfolio
PAY-OUT
Dividend linked to business results Scrip dividend with buy back offset Expected dividend growth 2013
BALANCE SHEET
0 – 30% gearing through cycle Balance sheet underpins investment Capital employed grows steadily
CFFO & capex outlook @$80-$100/BBL Brent and assumes improved US gas and Downstream environment from 2012
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 25
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
SHELL
ON TRACK FOR 2012-15 TARGETS GROWTH DELIVERY CAPITAL DISCIPLINE + TRACK RECORD
LONGER TERM
GROWTH PRIORITY
ENGINES
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
RESOURCES PLAYS
DEEP-WATER
INTEGRATED GAS
UPSTREAM
DOWNSTREAM
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 26
Line of axis
Line of axis
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Guide
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
Gui
de
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC Q&A