pharmaceutical market in indonesia
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Pharma Market Growth in Indonesia
Johannes Setijono2011
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Macro Environment & Trend
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Indonesia by the NumbersThe growth of Indonesian real GDP reached 6.1% in 2010
Source: Prospek Perekonomian Indonesia 2011 – Cyrillus Harinowo
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2,295
2,774
3,339
3,921
4,951
5,613
6,500
7,500
14.01
20.8720.37
17.43
26.27
13.37
15.80
15.38
55.7 5.5
6.3 6.1
4.5
6.16.8
GDP Growth In Indonesia
Nominal GDP Nominal GDP Growth Real GDP Growth
Year
(In I
DR
Tri
llio
n)
(In %
)
• With these developments, Nominal GDP can grow about 15%, which is around Rp 7,500 Tn or about $ 850 Bn in 2011
• Income per capita will reach about $ 3,500
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Chin
a
Indi
a
Indo
nesi
a
Mal
aysi
a
Phili
ppin
es
Sing
apor
e
Thai
land
Hon
gkon
g
Taiw
an
Kore
a
Japa
n
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 8.5 8.5
6.5
5.5 5.55 5
4.3 4.1 4
1.4
Indonesia by the NumbersRegional GDP Growth – 2011 E
Source: Macquarie Research, October 2010
%
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• In 2004, Indonesia was still number 25-26 with Saudi Arabia• In 2007, we were number 20, beyond Austria, Norway and
Taiwan• In 2008, we had surpassed Switzerland, Belgium and
Sweden, so that put us at number 18-19• In 2015, our economy will generate income per capita of
about $ 5,000 (such as Malaysia in 2006 but with a population of 8x more). If in the year 2011 our income per capita reached approximately $ 3,500, then the above target is likely to be exceeded
• This 5 years period will be very crucial to the Indonesian business world. (Various foreign investors will expand or penetrate the market within the next 5 years)
Outlook for Year 2008 – 2015
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Total Expenditure on Health as % of GDP
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200630
40
50
60
70
public private out-of-pocket private
Indonesia’s Health Spending Trends
Total Expenditure on Health as % of GDP
Source: WHO National Health Accounts database, September 2008
• Total expenditure on health averaged 2% of GDP over the 11 year period 1996-2006.
• The Government is planning to implement the National Social Security System. Since 2004, the Government has implemented healthcare program for poor people through Asuransi Kesehatan Masyarakat Miskin (Health Insurance for Poor Population) or Askeskin program and currently is replaced by Jaminan Kesehatan Masyarakat (Public Health Insurance Scheme for the Population) or Jamkesmas program.
• In Q4 2009, the new Healthcare Law has been approved and provides guideline for Government to increase the healthcare spending from 2% up to 5% of GDP (Healthcare Law No. 36/2009, Article 171 paragraph 1)
Vietnam
IndiaChina
MalaysiaPhilippines
Indonesia
- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
6.0 5.0
4.7 4.2
3.2 2.5
Source: Daily Newspaper Suara Pembaruan , 29 March 2010
Share of Total Health Expenditure (%) 1996-2006
Source: The World Bank
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Relevant Trends in Indonesia
• Middle class to rise from 19% of Asian population in 2009 to 30% by 2014• Indonesia has a young population, where 44% are below 24 years old
Growing wealth of middle class to drive demand
Source: CLSA Mr & Mrs Asia Moving up the J-curves – Spring 2010
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Relevant Trends in Indonesia
• Urban areas in Indonesia grew at an annual rate of 3.8% between 1990 and 2005, compared to the average growth in total population of 1.4% per annum
• As of end-2009, 44% of Indonesia’s population live in urban areas• Based on United Nation’s estimates, the urbanization trend will continue to
accelerate, increasing the proportion of people living in urban areas to 65% by 2050. We expect this trend to facilitate growth in health care
Urbanization
Source: Merrill Lynch Equity -ASEAN-Real Estate/Property – August 2010
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Relevant Trends in IndonesiaDemographic
Indonesian population by Generation Group 2010-2016 (in ‘000)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
40,988 41,118 41,247 41,377 41,498 41,595 41,673
103,127 103,233 103,317 103,369 103,353 103,271 103,311
49,305 50,294 51,251 52,192 53,103 53,997 54,893
40,058 41,686 43,360 45,076 46,862 48,708 50,461
Gen Z (age 0 - 9) Gen Y (age 10 - 34)Gen X (age 35 - 49) Baby Boomers (age 50 - 75+)
2010 vs 2016 Growth
26.0%
11.3%
0.2%
1.7%
• From the chart above, baby boomers and retire (>54) population have the biggest growth until 2016
people’s life expectancy longer people’s health awareness higher• Productive people (25 – 54) (gen X and partial gen Y) also growing around 11.3%
Source: Data Statistik Indonesia
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Industri Farmasi Indonesia
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Global pharma market tumbuh lebih dari US$1,200 billion di tahun 2014, didorong oleh Pharmerging markets
Source: IMS Health, Market Prognosis, Mar 2010. New Pharmerging definition
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Meskipun pasar APAC melambat, tetapi pasar China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam diperkirakan tumbuh “double digit”
Historical Growth 2005 – 2009 CAGR (LCD/MNF)Bubble size corresponds to 2014 SalesIMS data
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China Market Sales Growth by Segment
China merupakan market terbesar APAC, dan generik tumbuh paling pesat dibanding branded.
IMS MIDAS Q2 2010
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China di tahun 2009 menempati ranking 5 dan diperkirakan naik ke ranking 3 untuk pasar farmasi di dunia
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Growth driver China pharmaceutical market• Kenaikan GDP• Jumlah penduduk menengah atas yang meningkat tajam gaya hidup
berubah, termasuk meningkatnya health spending; dan meningkatnya kebutuhan health service & product yang lebih baik
• Regulasi pemerintah yang lebih baik:– Kebijakan untuk meningkatkan kualitas industri farmasi (dari 5000 3500
industri farmasi (2004)– Kebijakan perluasan asuransi kesehatan nasional dan perbaikan list obat dalam
asuransi– Kebijakan investasi yang mendukung perkembangan industri farmasi, baik
dalam bidang riset bahan baku sampai produk jadi dan biotechnology serta TCM – Kebijakan IP, tenaga kerja ekonomis investasi asing masuk– Kebijakan kolaborasi ABG yang kuat & Insentif terhadap riset– Kebijakan peningkatan kualitas pelayanan RS
• Akses healthcare yang lebih baik perbaikan dalam sarana kesehatan• Peningkatan kualitas produk; riset bahan baku dan produk jadi serta
biotechnology; distribusi produk• Jumlah retail yang berkembang dengan pesat
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Pola kenaikan GDP Indonesia sama dengan China dan India……
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Indonesia merupakan lapisan 3 sumber pertumbuhan pharma dunia….
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Di kawasan ASEAN, pasar farmasi Indonesia masih menjadi magnet untuk investasi
Historical performance of ASEAN markets
Source: IMS MIDAS MAT Dec 2010. ‘ASEAN’ includes Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia & Singapore in USD
ASEAN Annual growth rate =14.7%
ASEAN 4-year CAGR =14.2%
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Industri farmasi Indonesia mempunyai market
share yang baik (perusahaan farmasi domestik
mendominasi pasar Indonesia)
Ketergantungan pada bahan baku impor
menyebabkan industri farmasi sangat rentan
pada perkembangan harga bahan baku obat di
pasar internasional dan fluktuasi nilai tukar
(lebih dari 90% bahan baku obat diimpor)
Penyerapan tenaga kerja di seluruh rantai
farmasi sekitar 250.000 tenaga kerja
208 produsen farmasi termasuk 33 perusahaan
asing & 4 BUMN di Indonesia dapat memenuhi
kebutuhan seluruh sektor ekonomi masyarakat
Indonesia, dari lapisan atas ke bawah
Profil Industri Farmasi
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Secara value, pasar ethical dan OTC mengalami pertumbuhan yang melambat
Source: IMS,: ITMA, MAT 4Q10ASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe Farma
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Secara unit, pasar ethical dan OTC mengalami kenaikan..
Source: IMS, ITMA, MAT 4Q10ASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe Farma
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Value= 19,564 bnGrowth = +14.0%
Value= 21,945 bnGrowth = +12.2%
Sumber pertumbuhan pasar ethical adalah volume, BUKAN lagi berasal dari harga; yang mengakibatkan beberapa industri memperluas fasilitasnya
Source: IMS: ITMA-Ethical Only MAT 4Q10
New Products5% Interaction
1%
Volume Change49%
Line Ex-tension5%
Price Changes40%
EGS MAT 4Q09
New Products3%
Interaction1%
Volume Change68%
Line Exten-
sion5%
Price Changes23%
EGS MAT 4Q10
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Terjadi penurunan jumlah produk baru yang diluncurkan
Source: IMS: ITMA-Ethical Only MAT 4Q10
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
50
100
150
200
250
Number of Products Launch per Year
Foreign Ethical Foreign OTC Local Ethical Local OTC
Avg : 150
Avg : 63
Avg : 33
Avg : 9
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2.3 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.4 6.10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pasar farmasi Indonesia 2006 – 2014 (est.)
Pasar Indonesia diperkirakan mengalami pertumbuhan CAGR 13.4% karena didorong oleh:• pertumbuhan GDP• health spending government• % rakyat yang mempunyai asuransi• kepedulian masyarakat terhadap kesehatan• demografi
CAGR = 12.4%
CAGR = 13.4%
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Prospek industri farmasi di Indonesia masih tumbuh dengan
baik dan menjanjikan
Kita harus mengantisipasi perubahan-perubahan yang
terjadi baik dari segi demografi, urbanisasi, dan juga
perubahan sistem, seperti asuransi
Dengan adanya pressure atau tekanan dari pemerintah,
pertumbuhan pasar farmasi Indonesia akan lebih banyak
dipengaruhi oleh kenaikan volume dan produk baru,
dibandingkan dengan kenaikan harga
Pasar Farmasi Indonesia
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