PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

A Systems Engineering Approach for analyzing the

Performance of a City’s Transportation Critical Infrastructure Network:

Applying Mathematical Modeling to Geographical Interdependencies of the Transportation Network

A Systems Engineering Approach for analyzing the

Performance of a City’s Transportation Critical Infrastructure Network:

Applying Mathematical Modeling to Geographical Interdependencies of the Transportation Network

TitleTitle

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

ObjectiveObjective

To develop a mathematical model based on system engineering methodologies and practices for assessing the transportation critical infrastructure (CI) of urban cities as a complex system-of-systems with respect to system performance for various types of disconnects encountered by the highway’s network

To develop a mathematical model based on system engineering methodologies and practices for assessing the transportation critical infrastructure (CI) of urban cities as a complex system-of-systems with respect to system performance for various types of disconnects encountered by the highway’s network

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

ModelModel

Define the Requirements

DefineConstraints

DefineResources

DevelopAlgorithm

Links

ProvideResults

Geograhical Interdependencies

Nodes

Algorithm / Simulation

In

Out

DetermineOutputs

DetermineInputs

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

Define the Requirements

RequirementsRequirements

Model shall provide a ranking of the transportation networks’ links and nodes based on defined performance parameters

Model shall be adaptive such that the input states could change

Model shall provide a ranking of the transportation networks’ links and nodes based on defined performance parameters

Model shall be adaptive such that the input states could change

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

RequirementsRequirements

Model shall help the emergency responders and or City government users in the decision making process for resource allocation

Model shall help the emergency responders and or City government users in the decision making process for resource allocation

Define the Requirements

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

DefineConstraints

Model ConstraintsModel Constraints

Transportation Highway Network Major US Cities Steady State Exhibited Geographical Interdependencies

located within ¼ mile of the network

Transportation Highway Network Major US Cities Steady State Exhibited Geographical Interdependencies

located within ¼ mile of the network

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

System OutputSystem Output

Two sets of outputs: Preliminary Output

1. Estimated Cost2. Estimated Risk3. Estimated Throughput

Final Output1. Network Performance

Two sets of outputs: Preliminary Output

1. Estimated Cost2. Estimated Risk3. Estimated Throughput

Final Output1. Network Performance

DetermineOutputs

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805Assume Steady State

Simulation Flow DiagramSimulation Flow DiagramIn

put /

Var

iabl

es

Likelihood

Input Preliminary Output Final Output

Type ofDisconnect

Time ofDay

(n)Day ofWeek

Algorithm/Simulation

EstimatedCost

EstimatedRisk

EstimatedThroughput

SecondAlgorithm

Network Node

Performance

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

Model InputModel InputType of Disconnect(Continued)Terror Explosion Chemical Bio/HazardOther Special Events Construction School Closings

Time of DayRush Hour AM PMOther Morning Lunch Afternoon Evening Late Night Early Morning Day of Wk

Type of DisconnectAccident Chemical Multiple Fatality Single Fatality Multiple Injuries Severe Injury Minor Injury Fender BenderNatural Disaster Earthquake Flooding Hurricane Tornado Severe Weather

Day of WkHolliday New Years Easter Memorial Day 4th July Labor Day Thanks Giving Christmas

Type ofDisconnect

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

Model VariablesModel Variables

Geographical Interdependencies Power Lines Bridges Intersections Rail Lines DC Locations Water Ports Air Ports

Coupling Relationshipof Impact Power Lines Bridges Intersections Rail Lines DC Locations Water Ports Air Ports

Type ofDisconnect

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

Graphical RepresentationGraphical Representation

TI

RR

DTTR

i, j

DFW

TI – TX Instruments; CI 4 & 8

TR – Trinity River; CI 12

DT – Downtown; CI 2 & 5

RR – Railroad; 11

Nodes

Links

Geo. Inter.

i, j

Algorithm/Simulation

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

Model FunctionModel Function

sconstraint

bles varia..

ax

ts

ThroughputMin

RiskCostM

Algorithm/Simulation

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

Estimate CostEstimate Cost

AccidentsNon fatal injuriesFatal

Highway ConstructionTime Delays

Goods to marketPersonal time

AccidentsNon fatal injuriesFatal

Highway ConstructionTime Delays

Goods to marketPersonal time

StochasticMonte Carlo Simulation

Algorithm/Simulation

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

Quantify and Rank RisksQuantify and Rank Risks

Bayesian AnalysisMarkov ChainMonte Carlo Simulation

Algorithm/Simulation

Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)

Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management (RFRM)

Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)Fault Tree (FT)Event Tree (ET)

Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)

Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management (RFRM)

Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)Fault Tree (FT)Event Tree (ET)

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

Estimate ThroughputEstimate Throughput

Throughput estimates for:NodesLinks

Throughput estimates for:NodesLinks

StochasticQueuing AnalysisMonte Carlo Simulation

Algorithm/Simulation

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

EstimatedCost

EstimatedRisk

EstimatedThroughput

Model Output: Part IModel Output: Part I

Economic Impact: The estimated Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area economic impact of a disconnect

Risk Factors: The estimated amount of risk at each link and node of the transportation network

Economic Impact: The estimated Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area economic impact of a disconnect

Risk Factors: The estimated amount of risk at each link and node of the transportation network

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

Model Output: Part IModel Output: Part I

Throughput: The amount of vehicles per unit of time passing a defined link or node of the transportation network

Throughput: The amount of vehicles per unit of time passing a defined link or node of the transportation network

EstimatedCost

EstimatedRisk

EstimatedThroughput

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_020805

Weighted AnalysisWeighted Analysis

Use Weighted Analysis to arrive at a single output metricValue and Weight for:

1. Cost2. Risk3. Throughput

Use Weighted Analysis to arrive at a single output metricValue and Weight for:

1. Cost2. Risk3. Throughput

SecondAlgorithm