planning

NUML GROUP MEMBERS

• Qamar ZeeshanQamar Zeeshan• Rohail Ali AhmadRohail Ali Ahmad• Ali AkbarAli Akbar• Muhammad AdnanMuhammad Adnan• Muhammad ShakeelMuhammad Shakeel

PLANNING & DECISION AIDS

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Objectives

• Explain the major type of Explain the major type of problemsproblems

• Contrast the rational & non Contrast the rational & non rational models of management rational models of management decision makers.decision makers.

• Describe each of the steps in an Describe each of the steps in an effective decision making process.effective decision making process.

• Describe the major techniques for Describe the major techniques for enhancing group creativity.enhancing group creativity.

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Objectives

•Explain the concept of Explain the concept of strategic management and strategic management and identify level,formultion and identify level,formultion and implementation of strategy implementation of strategy

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WHAT IS PLANNING

The Process of setting goals and deciding The Process of setting goals and deciding howhow

best to achieve thembest to achieve them

DEFINITIONDEFINITION

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PLANNING & DECISION MAKING

•Managerial Decision Managerial Decision MakingMaking

•Planning And Decision AidsPlanning And Decision Aids

•Establish Organizational Establish Organizational GoalsGoals

•Strategic ManagementStrategic Management

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MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING

• Crisis ProblemsCrisis Problems

• Non Crisis ProblemsNon Crisis Problems

• OpportunityOpportunity • Types of Types of

Decision MakingDecision Making

• Differences In Differences In Decision MakingDecision Making

• Manager as Manager as Decision MakingDecision Making

Nature of Nature of Managerial Managerial Decision Decision MakingMaking

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• Programmed Programmed DecisionsDecisions

• Non Programmed Non Programmed DecisionsDecisions UncertaintyUncertainty RiskRisk

• Types of Types of Decision MakingDecision Making




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• The Rational ModelThe Rational Model

• Non Rational ModelsNon Rational Models Bounded RationalityBounded Rationality

Satisficing ModelSatisficing Model

Incremental ModelIncremental Model

GARBEG-CAN ModelGARBEG-CAN Model

• Types of Types of Decision MakingDecision Making




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• Organizational Organizational ProblemsProblems

• Scanning StageScanning Stage

• Categorization StageCategorization Stage

• Diagnosis StageDiagnosis Stage

• Identify the Identify the ProblemsProblems

• Generate Generate Alternative Alternative SolutionsSolutions

• ImplementationImplementation

Steps In An Steps In An Effective Effective Decision Decision Making Making ProcessProcess

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• Don’t criticize ideas while Don’t criticize ideas while generating possible generating possible solutions.solutions.

• Freewheel.Freewheel.• Offer as many ideas as Offer as many ideas as

possible.possible.• CombineCombine• Evaluating & Choosing an Evaluating & Choosing an

alternativealternative Feasibility Feasibility QualityQuality AcceptabilityAcceptability CostsCosts ReversibilityReversibility EthicsEthics



• ImplementationImplementation


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• Implementing The Implementing The SolutionSolution

• Monitoring The Monitoring The SolutionSolution



• Implementation Implementation


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OVERCOMING BARRIERS TO EFFECTIVE PLANNING

• ComplacencyComplacency

• Defensive avoidanceDefensive avoidance

• PanicPanic

• Deciding to decideDeciding to decide

• Accepting the Accepting the problem challengeproblem challenge

• Search for sufficient Search for sufficient alternativealternative

• Avoiding the decision Avoiding the decision Escalation Escalation PhenomenonPhenomenon

Overcoming Overcoming barriers to barriers to effective effective planning.planning.

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• Appraise creditability of Appraise creditability of informationinformation

• Ascertain importance of Ascertain importance of threat or opportunitythreat or opportunity

• Determine the need for Determine the need for urgencyurgency

• Recognizing common Recognizing common decision makingdecision making FramingFraming Prospect theoryProspect theory RepresentivenessRepresentiveness AvailabilityAvailability Anchoring and adjustmentAnchoring and adjustment OverconfidenceOverconfidence





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• Escalation situationEscalation situation

• Non rational situationNon rational situation

• Sunk CostsSunk Costs





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PLANNING AND DECISION AIDS

• Time series modelTime series model

• Explanatory or casual Explanatory or casual modelmodel

• Regression ModelRegression Model

• Econometric ModelEconometric Model

• Leading IndicatorsLeading Indicators

• Quantitative Quantitative ForecastingForecasting

• Promoting Promoting Innovation: Innovation: Technological or Technological or qualitative qualitative ForecastingForecasting

• The Delphi MethodThe Delphi Method

FORECASTINGFORECASTING

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Primary aimed at Primary aimed at predictingpredicting

long term trends inlong term trends in

technology and othertechnology and other

important aspects of theimportant aspects of the

environment.environment.





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A structured approach toA structured approach to

gaining the judgment of againing the judgment of a

Number of experts on aNumber of experts on a

Specific issue relating to Specific issue relating to thethe

FutureFuture Significant break throughSignificant break through ProbabilityProbability Represent New Represent New

InformationInformation





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• Gantt ChartGantt Chart

• PERTPERT Program Evaluation and Program Evaluation and

Review Technique (PERT)Review Technique (PERT) Network diagramNetwork diagram ActivityActivity Node, or eventNode, or event Critical PathCritical Path

• Control ModelControl Model

• Planning Planning TechniquesTechniques

• Quantitative aids Quantitative aids for decision for decision makingmaking

CONTROL MODELCONTROL MODEL

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• Linear ProgrammingLinear Programming

• Queuing or Waiting-Queuing or Waiting-Line ModelLine Model

• Routing, or Distribution Routing, or Distribution ModelModel

• Simulation ModelsSimulation Models




PLANNING PLANNING TECHNIQUESTECHNIQUES

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• Payoff TablesPayoff Tables

• Expected ValueExpected Value

• Decision TreesDecision Trees

• Break Time AnalysisBreak Time Analysis




QUANTITATIVE AIDSQUANTITATIVE AIDS

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ORGANIZATIONAL GOALS & PLAN

• GoalGoal

• PlanPlan

• Organizational MissionOrganizational Mission CustomerCustomer Products or ServicesProducts or Services LocationLocation TechnologyTechnology Concern for survivalConcern for survival PhilosophyPhilosophy Self-ConceptSelf-Concept Concern for public imageConcern for public image Concern for employeesConcern for employees

• Planning Planning ComponentsComponents

• Organizational Organizational GoalsGoals

• How Goals Facilitate How Goals Facilitate PerformancePerformance

OVERALL PLANNING OVERALL PLANNING PROCESSPROCESS

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• Strategic goalsStrategic goals Top ManagementTop Management

• Tactical goalsTactical goals Middle Level Middle Level

ManagementManagement

• Operational goalsOperational goals 11stst Line Management Line Management


• Nature Nature organizational Goalsorganizational Goals



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• Goal ContentGoal Content ChallengingChallenging AttainableAttainable Specific & measurableSpecific & measurable Time limitedTime limited PelevantPelevant

• Goal CommitmentGoal Commitment Supervisory authoritySupervisory authority

Peer and group pressurePeer and group pressure

Public DisplayPublic Display


• Nature Nature organizational Goalsorganizational Goals



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STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

• FormulationFormulation Identify current mission & Identify current mission &

strategy goals.strategy goals. Conduct competitive Conduct competitive

analysisanalysisSWOT analysisSWOT analysis

Develop Specific StrategyDevelop Specific StrategyCorporateCorporateBusinessBusinessFunctionsFunctions

• ImplementationImplementation Carry out Strategy PlansCarry out Strategy Plans

Maintain Strategic goalsMaintain Strategic goals

• Strategic Strategic management management processprocess

• Formulation of Formulation of strategystrategy

• Strategy Strategy ImplementationImplementation

Strategic Strategic Management ProcessManagement Process

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• Formulation of Corporative Formulation of Corporative StrategyStrategy Grand StrategyGrand Strategy

Growth StrategyGrowth StrategyStabilityStabilityDefensiveDefensive

• Formulation of Business Formulation of Business StrategyStrategy Generic StrategyGeneric Strategy

overall cost leadershipoverall cost leadershipDifferentiationDifferentiationFocusFocus

• Formulation of Function Formulation of Function level Strategylevel Strategy R&D R&D





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• Carry Out Strategic Carry Out Strategic PlansPlans TechnologyTechnology Human ResourcesHuman Resources Reward SystemReward System Decision ProcessDecision Process StructureStructure

• Maintaining Strategic Maintaining Strategic ControlControl Monitor ProgressMonitor Progress Designing InformationDesigning Information Assessing EffectAssessing Effect





planning

Education

planning decision aids

common decision

decision aids primary

decision escalation

value decision trees

decision aids payoff

process of setting goals

qualitative forecasting