policy brief - un environment · undp-unep poverty-environment initiative why should population...

UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative

Why should population issues be featured more prominently on Uganda’s political and policy agenda?The ecosystems in the Lake Kyoga catchment are undergoing rapid change due to the unsustainable use leading to their degradation. The key drivers of this change are population growth and unplanned settlement. Uganda faces a huge increase in the human population with one of the three highest population growth (3.2 percent) and fertility rates in the world (7 children per woman). It is estimated that by 2050, Uganda will have a population of 127 million people, more than quadrupling from 27.4 million at the beginning of 2007 .

Despite the demonstrated linkages between population and environment, and recognition that large families are a key cause of poverty (MFPED, 2006), a large population is seen as an asset for increasing production (Lirri, 2008). However, the recently reviewed National Population Policy acknowledges that the population growth rate needs to be slowed (MFPED, 2008).

This policy brief highlights some of these demographic issues and their environmental implications, and provides policy recommendations for better management of population and environment issues. It draws mainly from an integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA) pilot study in Uganda’s Lake Kyoga

catchment (Box 1). It calls for greater attention to the linkages between population and the environment on Uganda’s political agenda.

What is causing the population to increase?Population density is uneven across Uganda. It ranges from moderately low in the drier areas to very high in the more fertile areas with high rainfall, as seen in the Lake Kyoga catchment.

Nakasongola District is part of Uganda’s drylands ecosystem. From 1980 to 2002, the density increased from 23 to 40.9 people per km2, a 78 percent

100 0 100 100 Miles

MANAFA CATCHMENT

NakasongolaButalejaDistricts

Demographic change anD its impacts on ecosystems anD hUman Welfare

POLICY BRIEF

An integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA) pilot study for Uganda was carried out in the Lake Kyoga catchment as part of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to provide information on linkages between changes in ecosystems, ecosystem services and human well-being. The Lake Kyoga catchment is an important focal area for Uganda because of its importance in the Nile Basin and the significant differences in human welfare indicators such as health, poverty and food security. The study was carried out in 2007 in Nakasongola, Bududa and Butaleja Districts.

Box 1: The case study areas

Consequences of deforestation

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CLIMATE CHANgE, THE ENvIroNMENT AND HUMAN wELFArE: LEssoNs LEArNED FroM THE LAKE KyogA CATCHMENT ArEA


increase over 20 years (NEMA, 2008). This is lower than the national average of 124 people per km2 (Table 1), but its impact is compounded by the fact that arable land is limited, rains are unreliable and ecosystems are degraded. The population has risen due to several in-migrations: pastoral groups from the south-west of the country; cultivators and other people from northern Uganda fleeing the armed rebellion of the Lord’s resistance Army (Concern, 2006), and second-generation returnees who left Nakasongola as a result of the 1969 to 1971 drought.

In Bududa and Butaleja Districts, fertile soils and reliable rainfall in the cultivated highland-wetland ecosystem have combined to attract a growing population. High human fertility rates and poverty have also contributed to population increase. Population density in both districts has increased by over 30 percent over the last 11 years, reaching 534 and 330 people per km2 in Bududa and Butaleja, respectively (NEMA, 2008). Bududa has been transformed into a heavily settled, intensively cultivated district where soil erosion and landslides occur, especially during the heavy rains. As the uplands of Butaleja are becoming eroded, most of the populations are moving into the more fertile wetlands to grow paddy rice.

What are the impacts of the increasing population?In the study area, the most highly exploited natural resources are the forest ecosystems in Nakasongola District and the freshwater ecosystems throughout the Kyoga catchment. Among the impacts of increased population densities are:

1. reduction in farm size;

2. expansion of cultivation in unsuitable areas;

3. conversion of wetland areas, resulting in downstream water shortage and over-reliance on one crop;

4. over-harvest of woody biomass causing degradation of woodland and forest ecosystems;

5. overfishing, siltation and depletion of the Kyoga Fishery;

6. increased conflicts.

1. Reduction in farm size

Large families have led to land fragmentation – where land is divided among the adult members of the family, leading to a steady decline in farm size. The average farm size in Bududa is 0.5 acres (MFPED, 2006). when farm size becomes too small to be viable, there are negative impacts on agricultural production, food security and social welfare, which lead to limited investments in land improvement (MFPED, 2006).

2. Expansion of cultivation in unsuitable areas

Farmers on the steep slopes using poor agricultural practices are exposed to landslides and soil erosion. A further population increase will exacerbate the situation, with many unemployed people willing to take risks, such as encroaching on forest reserves and expanding farming on the unstable mountain slopes. This may reverse the modest success in restoring the forests in Mt. Elgon National Park.

3. Conversion of wetland areas, downstream water shortage and over-reliance on one crop

Large tracts of upland in Butaleja District lie fallow because they are of low fertility and most of the

DEmOgRaPhIC statIstICs PERIOD NaKasONgOLa ButaLEja BuDuDa NatIONaL avERagE

Population 125,297.0 160, 927.0 124,368.0 24,748,977.0

Population growth rate (%) 1980–1991 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.5

1991–2002 2.0 2.7 3.1 3.3

Population density (p/km2) 1991 31.0 242.0 406.0 85.0

2002 41.0 330.0 534.0 124.0

Note: Statistics for Butaleja and Bududa Districts were extracted from Tororo and Mbale Regions, respectively.

Source: UBOS, 2004

table 1: population statistics of nakasongola, Bududa and Butaleja Districts



community is involved in paddy rice production in the wetlands. wetland productivity is dropping as the cultivated area increases. Increased channeling of the river Manafwa is leading to reduced flows and siltation, causing a reduction in water availability for downstream communities. The volume of river water is unlikely to be sufficient to support food provision for the increasing human population. There are already food shortages at the household level, and people sell rice to buy other food items. In the medium term, excessive reliance on rice threatens food and income security. Continued population growth is likely to lead to further vulnerability to water, food and income insecurity.

Approximately 70 percent of households in Nakasongola District are involved in the charcoal trade, either directly or indirectly. Deforestation for charcoal, fuelwood and other uses has reduced the size of the woodlands (by 50 percent) and contributed to a rise in termite attacks. Termites have destroyed crops and rangelands (NFA, 2007; NDC, 2004). rampant deforestation is also reducing energy security since almost 100 percent of Nakasongola’s households depend solely on firewood and charcoal for cooking. The price of firewood and the distances women and children travel to collect it have increased. In Butaleja, which has no remaining significant woodland or forest ecosystem, rice husks are used for cooking.

5. Overfishing, siltation and depletion of the fishery

In-migration and increased demand have caused over-fishing, which has depleted and degraded the Lake Kyoga Fishery. Fishing is considered the most important economic activity by 30 percent of households in Nakasongola (NEMA, 2008). In Bududa, on the slopes of Mt. Elgon, poor farming methods cause increased runoff, and together with pollutants from household wastes and increasing demand for water, have resulted in siltation of downstream waters. In addition to leading to a decrease in farm productivity and household economic security, this has led to a decline in water quality and fish population.

6. Increased conflict

restrictions on accessing land and natural resources, due in part to government efforts to conserve natural resources and reserve land for other public purposes, combined with increased population density and

ecosystem change lead to civil strife. Nakasongola, where 49 percent of the land is in protected areas and other central government-controlled lands including that of Luwero Industries, there are frequent conflicts between pastoralists and agricultural and fishing communities. In Bududa, restrictions on accessing Mt. Elgon National Park and Mt Elgon Central Forest reserves have limited the livelihood opportunities of communities. This forces some communities to move further up the steep slopes, exposing 85 percent of this Mt. Elgon region to soil erosion (NEMA, 2000) and exacerbating conflicts between the park and the people. In september 2008, physical conflicts over access to wetlands erupted between farmers in Butaleja District.

What are the options for better demographic management?By 2050, it is estimated that the population densities will increase by a factor of 4.6 to 2,475 ppkm2, 1,530 ppkm2 and 190 ppkm2 in Bududa, Butaleja and Nakasongola, respectively. The national average population density will be 575 ppkm2. stresses on the natural resources are already high, and if allowed to continue, will exacerbate the situation. This may reverse the modest improvements made in reducing the proportion of the poor (currently 30 percent) and in restoring degraded ecosystems.

A number of policy recommendations below aim at reducing human population growth rate to levels that the ecosystems can sustain, while simultaneously supporting sustainable land and natural resource management systems that enhance the productivity of the ecosystems.

Box 2. Key policy issues

1. Having one of the highest human population growth rates in the world and high concentrations in wetland and on slopes are causing stress on the water, woodland, grassland, wetland and lake ecosystems.

2. There is an inappropriate and expanding use of infertile and steeply sloping land.

3. Farm size is becoming too small to support family needs, increasing landlessness and economic stress.

4. There are increasing occurrences of disasters, including land slides, droughts and floods, water shortages and health epidemics.




P.o. Box 30552 (00100)Nairobi/KenyaEmail: [email protected]

Authors: Kaggwa, r., Hogan, r. and gowa, E.

Photo credits: Mark Edwards / still Pictures

Printing: Publishing services section, Nairobi, Iso 14001:2004 - certified.

issue 1. high human population growth rates and concentrations

• give priority attention to the incompatibility of the human population growth rates with current or projected levels of economic development or ecosystem management.

• Increase understanding among health, education and planning executives, public representatives, religious and cultural leaders, and the general public of the economic and environmental implications of very high human population growth rates and concentrations.

• Apply the revised population policy by implementing a culturally and religiously compatible strategy for slowing population growth.

• Develop and implement demographic management plans at the district and national level that match ecosystem carrying capacity.

issue 2. inappropriate and expanding use of infertile and steeply sloping land

• Implement the new national land use policy that particularly supports districts and communities to develop and implement participatory land use/environmental management plans that are based on ecosystem carrying capacity and management needs.

issue 3. farm size becoming too small to support family needs, increasing landlessness and economic stress

• Encourage livelihood and income diversification, both on- and off-farm, by adopting appropriate education and incentives.

on-farm: upland rice and other crops as an alternative to paddy rice in Butalejaand’s integrated agro-pastoral-forestry enterprises targeting fruit, fodder, fuelwood and bee forage trees, which can also tap into the carbon trade;

off-farm: value addition and marketing of agricultural and wild products, sustainable fisheries, tourism and service enterprises.

• Establish payment schemes for ecosystem services. give communities options on a package of payments for watershed services, carbon credits, as well as biodiversity and ecosystem conservation.

1. MFPED (2006). State of Uganda’s Population 2006. Population secretariat, Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MFPED), Kampala.

2. Lirri, E. (2008). Is Uganda’s rising population a burden or an opportunity? The Monitor Newspaper, Nation Media group, Kampala. July 23, 2008. Also available on: http://www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/features/Is_Uganda_s_rising_population_a_burden_or_an_opportunity_68655.shtml (accessed July 2008).

3. MFPED (2008). National Population Policy for Social Transformation and Sustainable Development, Population secretariat, Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MFPED), Kampala.

4. NEMA (2008). Pilot Integrated Environment Assessment of the Lake Kyoga Catchment in Uganda. National Environment Management Authority (NEMA), Kampala.

5. Concern (2006). Concern project. Nakasongola District, Uganda. http://www.afdev.infocom

6. NFA (National Forest Authority), 2007. Maps and Figures, National Forest Authority Library. Kampala.

7. NDC (Nakasongola District Council), 2004. Nakasongola District state of the Environment report, 2004. Nakasongola, Uganda.

8. NEMA (2000). National State of the Environment Report for 2000/01. National Environment Management Authority (NEMA), Kampala.

References

issue 4. increasing occurrences of disasters including land slides, droughts and floods, water shortages and health epidemics

• Prevent and prepare for extremes of climate and vulnerability to disasters by using national and international climate change opportunities to:

• develop participatory district, sub-county and village-specific disaster risk reduction and communication plans in line with the national disaster risk reduction policy;

• integrate land use planning and disaster risk education into all formal and informal educational programmes.

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