population change: implications for the future of texas ...€¦ · population and population...

Population Change: Implications for The Future Of Texas and The United States

Steve Murdock, Ph.D. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas

Allyn and Gladys Cline Professor of SociologyRice University

Total Population and Percent Population Changein Texas and the United States, 1850-2010

Total Population Percent Change

Year Texas U.S. Texas U.S.1850 212,592 23,191,876 --- ---1860 604,215 31,443,321 184.2 35.61870 818,579 39,818,449 35.5 26.61880 1,591,749 50,155,783 94.5 26.01890 2,235,527 62,947,714 40.4 25.51900 3,048,710 75,994,575 36.4 20.71910 3,896,542 91,972,266 27.8 21.01920 4,663,228 105,710,620 19.7 14.91930 5,824,715 122,775,046 24.9 16.11940 6,414,824 131,669,275 10.1 7.21950 7,711,194 150,697,361 20.2 14.51960 9,579,677 179,323,175 24.2 19.01970 11,196,730 203,302,031 16.9 13.41980 14,229,191 226,545,805 27.1 11.41990 16,986,510 248,709,873 19.4 9.82000 20,851,820 281,421,906 22.8 13.22010 25,145,561 308,745,538 20.6 9.7

Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census April 1 of reported year.

Change 2000-2010

State2000

Population2010

Population Numeric Percent

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6

Virginia 7,078,515 8,001,024 922,509 13.0

Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 830,419 14.1

Colorado 4,301,261 5,029,196 727,935 16.9

Nevada 1,998,257 2,700,551 702,294 35.1

Ten States in the United States with theLargest Numeric Population Increase 2000-2010

Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Ten States in the United States with theLargest Numeric Population Increase, 2010-2018

Population Change, 2010-2018

Geographic Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent

United States 308,758,105 327,167,434 18,409,329 6.0

Texas 25,146,114 28,701,845 3,555,731 14.1

Florida 18,804,580 21,299,325 2,494,745 13.3

California 37,254,523 39,557,045 2,302,522 6.2

North Carolina 9,535,736 10,383,620 847,884 8.9

Georgia 9,688,709 10,519,475 830,766 8.6

Washington 6,724,540 7,535,591 811,051 12.1

Arizona 6,392,288 7,171,646 779,358 12.2

Colorado 5,029,316 5,695,564 666,248 13.2

Virginia 8,001,055 8,517,685 516,630 6.5

South Carolina 4,625,381 5,084,127 458,746 9.9Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.

Ten States in the United States with theLargest Percentage Population Increase, 2010-2018

Population Change, 2010-2018

Geographic Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent

United States 308,758,105 327,167,434 18,409,329 6.0

Utah 2,763,891 3,161,105 397,214 14.4

Texas 25,146,114 28,701,845 3,555,731 14.1

Florida 18,804,580 21,299,325 2,494,745 13.3

Colorado 5,029,316 5,695,564 666,248 13.2

North Dakota 672,576 760,077 87,501 13.0

Nevada 2,700,679 3,034,392 333,713 12.4

Arizona 6,392,288 7,171,646 779,358 12.2

Washington 6,724,540 7,535,591 811,051 12.1

Idaho 1,567,657 1,754,208 186,551 11.9

South Carolina 4,625,381 5,084,127 458,746 9.9Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.

Twenty MSAs with the Largest Numeric Change, 2010 - 2018

Population Change 2010-2018Metropolitan Statistical Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 6,426,222 7,539,711 1,113,489 17.3Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 5,920,487 6,997,384 1,076,897 18.2Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4,193,127 4,857,962 664,835 15.9Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 5,286,750 5,949,951 663,201 12.5Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 5,566,294 6,198,782 632,488 11.4Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 5,636,363 6,249,950 613,587 10.9Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 3,439,805 3,939,363 499,558 14.5Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 12,828,946 13,291,486 462,540 3.6Austin-Round Rock, TX 1,716,321 2,168,316 451,995 26.3Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 2,134,402 2,572,962 438,560 20.5New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 19,566,527 19,979,477 412,950 2.1Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4,224,966 4,622,361 397,395 9.4San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 4,335,587 4,729,484 393,897 9.1Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 2,543,602 2,932,415 388,813 15.3San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 2,142,521 2,518,036 375,515 17.5Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 2,783,462 3,142,663 359,201 12.9Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 2,216,997 2,569,213 352,216 15.9Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 4,552,598 4,875,390 322,792 7.1Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 1,951,271 2,231,647 280,376 14.4Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3,348,862 3,629,190 280,328 8.4

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.

Components of Population Change for Texas, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

48%

Net International

Migration23%

Net Domestic Migration

29%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates

Total Change: 3,555,731

Components of Population Change for Bexar County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

44%

Net International

Migration17%


39%

Total Change: 271,277

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates.

Components of Population Change for Brazoria County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

37%

Net International

Migration8%


55%



Components of Population Change for Cameron County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

38,103

5,655

-26,142Natural Increase Net International

MigrationNet Domestic Migration

‐30,000

‐20,000

‐10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000Total Change: 17,693


Components of Population Change for Collin County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

26%

Net International

Migration18%


56%



Components of Population Change for Comal County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

7%

Net International

Migration3%


90%



Components of Population Change for Dallas County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

198,670

108,290



‐50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000Total Change: 271,089


Components of Population Change for Denton County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

27%

Net International

Migration10%


63%



Components of Population Change for Ft. Bend County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

25%

Net International

Migration20%


55%



Components of Population Change for Harris County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

370,217

259,047



‐50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000Total Change: 605,431


Components of Population Change for Hays County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

17%

Net International

Migration3%


80%



Components of Population Change for Gillespie County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

-786

342

2,411

Natural Increase Net InternationalMigration

Net Domestic Migration‐1,000

‐500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500



Components of Population Change for Hidalgo County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

96,389

15,190

-20,100



‐20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000



Components of Population Change for Lubbock County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

50%

Net International

Migration12%


38%



Components of Population Change for McLennan County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

58%Net

International Migration

14%


28%



Components of Population Change for Midland County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

38%

Net International

Migration9%


53%



Components of Population Change for Montgomery County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

21%

Net International

Migration10%


69%



Components of Population Change for Tarrant County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

48%

Net International

Migration21%


31%



Components of Population Change for Travis County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

39%

Net International

Migration22%


39%



Components of Population Change for Webb County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

33,319

7,247

-14,937



‐10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000



Components of Population Change for Williamson County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

23%

Net International

Migration6%


71%



Census Estimates

2018

Population and Population Change for Texas Metropolitan Areas, 2010 - 2018

Population Change 2010-2018Metropolitan Statistical Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent

Abilene, TX 165,246 171,451 6,205 3.8Amarillo, TX 251,937 265,947 14,010 5.6Austin-Round Rock, TX 1,716,321 2,168,316 451,995 26.3Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 403,194 409,526 6,332 1.6Brownsville-Harlingen, TX 406,215 423,908 17,693 4.4College Station-Bryan, TX 228,668 262,431 33,763 14.8Corpus Christi, TX 428,183 452,950 24,767 5.8Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 6,426,222 7,539,711 1,113,489 17.3El Paso, TX 804,129 845,553 41,424 5.2Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 5,920,487 6,997,384 1,076,897 18.2Killeen-Temple, TX 405,313 451,679 46,366 11.4Laredo, TX 250,304 275,910 25,606 10.2Longview, TX 214,367 219,417 5,050 2.4Lubbock, TX 290,889 319,068 28,179 9.7McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 774,768 865,939 91,171 11.8Midland, TX 141,671 178,331 36,660 25.9Odessa, TX 137,136 162,124 24,988 18.2San Angelo, TX 111,825 119,711 7,886 7.1San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 2,142,521 2,518,036 375,515 17.5Sherman-Denison, TX 120,875 133,991 13,116 10.9Texarkana, TX-AR 149,194 150,242 1,048 0.7Tyler, TX 209,725 230,221 20,496 9.8Victoria, TX 94,003 99,619 5,616 6.0Waco, TX 252,766 271,942 19,176 7.6Wichita Falls, TX 151,474 151,306 -168 -0.1


Population and Population Change for Texas Metropolitan Areas, 2017 - 2018

Population Change 2010-2018Metropolitan Statistical Area July 1, 2017 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent

Abilene, TX 170,516 171,451 935 0.5Amarillo, TX 264,955 265,947 992 0.4Austin-Round Rock, TX 2,115,230 2,168,316 53,086 2.5Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 412,616 409,526 -3,090 -0.7Brownsville-Harlingen, TX 423,181 423,908 727 0.2College Station-Bryan, TX 258,825 262,431 3,606 1.4Corpus Christi, TX 453,684 452,950 -734 -0.2Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 7,407,944 7,539,711 131,767 1.8El Paso, TX 845,145 845,553 408 0.0Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 6,905,695 6,997,384 91,689 1.3Killeen-Temple, TX 443,653 451,679 8,026 1.8Laredo, TX 273,982 275,910 1,928 0.7Longview, TX 218,594 219,417 823 0.4Lubbock, TX 316,588 319,068 2,480 0.8McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 858,323 865,939 7,616 0.9Midland, TX 170,948 178,331 7,383 4.3Odessa, TX 157,173 162,124 4,951 3.2San Angelo, TX 119,200 119,711 511 0.4San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 2,474,274 2,518,036 43,762 1.8Sherman-Denison, TX 131,214 133,991 2,777 2.1Texarkana, TX-AR 150,254 150,242 -12 0.0Tyler, TX 227,460 230,221 2,761 1.2Victoria, TX 99,651 99,619 -32 0.0Waco, TX 268,550 271,942 3,392 1.3Wichita Falls, TX 151,180 151,306 126 0.1


Population and Population Change for the Twenty Largest Counties in Texas in 2018

Population Change 2000 - 2010 Change 2010 - 2018*County 2000 2010 2018 Numeric Percent Numeric Percent

Texas 20,851,028 25,146,114 28,701,845 4,295,086 20.6 3,555,731 14.1Harris 3,401,139 4,093,188 4,698,619 692,049 20.3 605,431 14.8Dallas 2,216,808 2,366,683 2,637,772 149,875 6.8 271,089 11.5Tarrant 1,449,290 1,810,655 2,084,931 361,365 24.9 274,276 15.1Bexar 1,393,035 1,714,772 1,986,049 321,737 23.1 271,277 15.8Travis 811,776 1,024,462 1,248,743 212,686 26.2 224,281 21.9Collin 491,272 782,220 1,005,146 290,948 59.2 222,926 28.5Hidalgo 569,099 774,768 865,939 205,669 36.1 91,171 11.8Denton 433,065 662,554 859,064 229,489 53.0 196,510 29.7El Paso 679,568 800,653 840,758 121,085 17.8 40,105 5.0Fort Bend 354,286 584,690 787,858 230,404 65.0 203,168 34.7Montgomery 293,779 455,750 590,925 161,971 55.1 135,175 29.7Williamson 250,466 422,501 566,719 172,035 68.7 144,218 34.1Cameron 334,884 406,215 423,908 71,331 21.3 17,693 4.4Brazoria 241,805 313,123 370,200 71,318 29.5 57,077 18.2Nueces 313,512 340,223 362,265 26,711 8.5 22,042 6.5Bell 238,000 310,159 355,642 72,159 30.3 45,483 14.7Galveston 250,178 291,307 337,890 41,129 16.4 46,583 16.0Lubbock 242,644 278,918 307,412 36,274 14.9 28,494 10.2Webb 193,124 250,304 275,910 57,180 29.6 25,606 10.2Jefferson 251,968 252,277 255,001 309 0.1 2,724 1.1Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018 and 2000-2010 Intercensal Estimates.*99 months change from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018.2000 and 2010 Estimates Base

Population and Population Change for the Twenty Counties in Texas with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018

Population Change 2000 - 2010 Change 2010 - 2018*

County 2000 2010 2018 Numeric Percent Numeric Percent

Harris 3,401,139 4,093,188 4,698,619 692,049 20.3 605,431 14.8Tarrant 1,449,290 1,810,655 2,084,931 361,365 24.9 274,276 15.1Bexar 1,393,035 1,714,772 1,986,049 321,737 23.1 271,277 15.8Dallas 2,216,808 2,366,683 2,637,772 149,875 6.8 271,089 11.5Travis 811,776 1,024,462 1,248,743 212,686 26.2 224,281 21.9Collin 491,272 782,220 1,005,146 290,948 59.2 222,926 28.5Fort Bend 354,286 584,690 787,858 230,404 65.0 203,168 34.7Denton 433,065 662,554 859,064 229,489 53.0 196,510 29.7Williamson 250,466 422,501 566,719 172,035 68.7 144,218 34.1Montgomery 293,779 455,750 590,925 161,971 55.1 135,175 29.7Hidalgo 569,099 774,768 865,939 205,669 36.1 91,171 11.8Hays 97,918 157,099 222,631 59,181 60.4 65,532 41.7Brazoria 241,805 313,123 370,200 71,318 29.5 57,077 18.2Galveston 250,178 291,307 337,890 41,129 16.4 46,583 16.0Bell 238,000 310,159 355,642 72,159 30.3 45,483 14.7El Paso 679,568 800,653 840,758 121,085 17.8 40,105 5.0Comal 78,022 108,485 148,373 30,463 39.0 39,888 36.8Midland 116,034 136,872 172,578 20,838 18.0 35,706 26.1Guadalupe 88,856 131,534 163,694 42,678 48.0 32,160 24.4Brazos 152,436 194,861 226,758 42,425 27.8 31,897 16.4Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018 and 2000-2010 Intercensal Estimates.*99 months change from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018.

Population and Population Change for the Twenty Counties in Texas with the Largest Percentage Increase from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018

Population Change 2000 - 2010 Change 2010 - 2018*County 2000 2010 2018 Numeric Percent Numeric Percent

Loving 67 82 152 15 22.4 70 85.4Hays 97,918 157,099 222,631 59,181 60.4 65,532 41.7Hudspeth 3,349 3,476 4,795 127 3.8 1,319 37.9Comal 78,022 108,485 148,373 30,463 39.0 39,888 36.8Kendall 23,793 33,411 45,641 9,618 40.4 12,230 36.6Fort Bend 354,286 584,690 787,858 230,404 65.0 203,168 34.7Williamson 250,466 422,501 566,719 172,035 68.7 144,218 34.1Denton 433,065 662,554 859,064 229,489 53.0 196,510 29.7Montgomery 293,779 455,750 590,925 161,971 55.1 135,175 29.7Collin 491,272 782,220 1,005,146 290,948 59.2 222,926 28.5Rockwall 43,023 78,330 100,657 35,307 82.1 22,327 28.5Midland 116,034 136,872 172,578 20,838 18.0 35,706 26.1Guadalupe 88,856 131,534 163,694 42,678 48.0 32,160 24.4Kaufman 71,452 103,363 128,622 31,911 44.7 25,259 24.4Waller 32,545 43,277 53,126 10,732 33.0 9,849 22.8Andrews 13,002 14,786 18,128 1,784 13.7 3,342 22.6Travis 811,776 1,024,462 1,248,743 212,686 26.2 224,281 21.9Chambers 26,006 35,099 42,454 9,093 35.0 7,355 21.0Ellis 111,415 149,604 179,436 38,189 34.3 29,832 19.9Martin 4,746 4,799 5,753 53 1.1 954 19.9Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018 and 2000-2010 Intercensal Estimates.*99 months change from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018.

Top Twenty Counties in the United States Ranked by Estimated Natural Increase, 2010-2018

June 10, 201934

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Population Estimates, 2018 Vintage.

Rank County State Natural Increase1 Los Angeles County California 539,2242 Harris County Texas 370,2173 Cook County Illinois 233,2734 Maricopa County Arizona 212,7445 Kings County New York 206,5166 Dallas County Texas 198,6707 San Diego County California 186,7248 Orange County California 154,6919 San Bernardino County California 143,82110 Tarrant County Texas 131,60111 Queens County New York 128,62212 Riverside County California 121,28013 Bexar County Texas 120,28114 Santa Clara County California 110,89315 King County Washington 104,62116 Miami-Dade County Florida 100,04817 Hidalgo County Texas 96,38918 Clark County Nevada 96,26919 Bronx County New York 96,06520 Salt Lake County Utah 94,545

Top Twenty Counties in the United States Ranked by Estimated Net International Migration,

2010-2018

June 10, 201935

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Population Estimates, 2018 Vintage.

Rank County State Net International Migration

1 Miami-Dade County Florida 330,0062 Los Angeles County California 316,8173 Harris County Texas 208,1784 King County Washington 195,6595 Santa Clara County California 169,0306 Cook County Illinois 131,8187 Queens County New York 131,5088 Broward County Florida 129,0299 Kings County New York 120,94310 San Diego County California 115,61311 Dallas County Texas 111,23112 Bronx County New York 109,73313 Orange County Florida 87,30914 Middlesex County Massachusetts 86,75315 Maricopa County Arizona 85,74516 New York County New York 85,18317 Alameda County California 84,23418 Orange County California 74,86119 Suffolk County Massachusetts 73,99120 Fairfax County Virginia 73,219

Top Twenty Counties in the United States Ranked by Estimated Net Domestic Migration, 2010-2018

June 10, 201936

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Population Estimates, 2018 Vintage.Note: Domestic migration includes migrants moving from adjacent counties.

Rank County State Net Domestic Migration

1 Maricopa County Arizona 280,1232 Clark County Nevada 154,1393 Collin County Texas 125,2774 Denton County Texas 122,5585 Riverside County California 121,5746 Fort Bend County Texas 111,7607 Lee County Florida 111,1978 Bexar County Texas 105,2689 Williamson County Texas 101,079

10 Wake County North Carolina 97,06311 Montgomery County Texas 92,84512 Travis County Texas 85,88813 Tarrant County Texas 84,46414 Palm Beach County Florida 83,89315 Hillsborough County Florida 79,32816 Pasco County Florida 74,01617 Polk County Florida 72,50718 Horry County South Carolina 72,00119 Mecklenburg County North Carolina 64,53520 Manatee County Florida 64,122

June 10, 2019

Estimated Population Change, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.

State Growth: 14.1%

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010

Population Population Change Percent of Total Population

Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent Percent of Total Change 2000 2010

NH White 194,552,774 196,817,552 2,264,778 1.2 8.3 69.1 63.7

Hispanic (All Races) 35,305,818 50,477,594 15,171,776 43.0 55.5 12.5 16.3

NH Black 33,947,837 37,685,848 3,738,011 11.0 13.7 12.1 12.2

NH Asian 10,123,169 14,465,124 4,341,955 42.9 15.9 3.6 4.7

NH Other 7,492,308 9,299,420 1,807,112 24.1 6.6 2.7 3.0

Total 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7 100.0 100.0 100.0

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.

Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L. 94-171.

Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under 18 Years by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010

Population Population Change Percent of Total Population

Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent Percent of Total Change 2000 2010

NH White 44,027,087 39,716,562 -4,310,525 -9.8 -228.4 60.9 53.5

Hispanic (All Races) 12,342,259 17,130,891 4,788,632 38.8 253.7 17.1 23.1

NH Black 10,610,264 10,362,183 -248,081 -2.3 -13.1 14.7 14.0

NH Asian 2,420,274 3,176,129 755,855 31.2 40.0 3.3 4.3

NH Other 2,893,928 3,795,702 901,774 31.2 47.8 4.0 5.1

Total 72,293,812 74,181,467 1,887,655 2.6 100.0 100.0 100.0

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.

Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L. 94-171.


Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the

Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010

Population Population ChangePercent of

Total Change

Racial Group 2000 2010 Numeric PercentPercent of

Total Change 2000 2010NH* White 758,302 938,474 180,172 23.8 38.6 60.7 54.7NH Black 96,746 120,510 23,764 24.6 5.1 7.7 7.0Hispanic 327,760 538,313 210,553 64.2 45.1 26.2 31.4NH Asian & Other 66,955 118,992 52,037 77.7 11.2 5.4 6.9Total 1,249,763 1,716,289 466,526 37.3 100.0 100.0 100.0Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in 2013.*NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the

Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010


Total Change


Total Change 2000 2010NH* White 161,723 182,346 20,623 12.8 17.5 51.0 41.9NH Black 28,862 32,637 3,775 13.1 3.2 9.1 7.5Hispanic 109,686 185,913 76,227 69.5 64.8 34.6 42.8NH Asian & Other 16,751 33,864 17,113 102.2 14.5 5.3 7.8Total 317,022 434,760 117,738 37.1 100.0 100.0 100.0Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in 2013.*NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington

Metropolitan Statistical Area, Texas 2000 and 2010


Total Change


Total Change 2000 2010NH* White 3,081,734 3,248,509 166,775 5.4 13.6 59.3 50.5NH Black 707,490 941,599 234,109 33.1 19.2 13.6 14.7Hispanic 1,121,442 1,758,738 637,296 56.8 52.2 21.5 27.4NH Asian & Other 293,460 477,368 183,908 62.7 15.0 5.6 7.4Total 5,204,126 6,426,214 1,222,088 23.5 100.0 100.0 100.0Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in 2013.*NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010


Total Change


Total Change 2000 2010NH* White 735,112 699,178 -35,934 -4.9 -11.1 50.2 39.1NH Black 227,185 277,206 50,021 22.0 15.4 15.6 15.5Hispanic 410,193 661,960 251,767 61.4 77.5 28.1 37.1NH Asian & Other 88,486 147,481 58,995 66.7 18.2 6.1 8.3Total 1,460,976 1,785,825 324,849 22.2 100.0 100.0 100.0Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in 2013.*NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010


Total Change


Total Change 2000 2010NH* White 2,256,857 2,340,268 83,411 3.7 6.8 48.1 39.6NH Black 781,159 996,221 215,062 27.5 17.5 16.6 16.8Hispanic 1,352,393 2,096,532 744,139 55.0 60.7 28.8 35.4NH Asian & Other 302,752 487,395 184,643 61.0 15.0 6.5 8.2Total 4,693,161 5,920,416 1,227,255 26.1 100.0 100.0 100.0Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in 2013.*NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total PopulationUnder 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010


Total Change


Total Change 2000 2010NH* White 542,563 494,054 -48,509 -8.9 -16.5 39.8 29.8NH Black 244,702 282,991 38,289 15.6 13.0 18.0 17.1Hispanic 489,495 744,227 254,732 52.0 86.8 35.9 45.0NH Asian & Other 85,634 134,692 49,058 57.3 16.7 6.3 8.1Total 1,362,394 1,655,964 293,570 21.5 100.0 100.0 100.0Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in 2013.*NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 1999 and 2010

Race/ Ethnicity

1999 2010

Population in Poverty %

Median Household

Income*


Median Household

Income*

NH White 16,026,542 8.3 $59,221 21,831,928 10.8 $53,988

Hispanic (All Races) 7,797,874 22.6 $44,079 12,583,542 24.8 $40,165

NH Black 7,970,165 24.8 $38,541 10,270,229 27.1 $33,568

NH Asian 1,241,291 12.6 $68,020 1,806,217 12.4 $67,142

Total 33,899,812 12.4 $54,966 47,330,502 15.3 $50,046

*In 2010 Dollars.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 4, 2006-2010 American Community Survey

Not all race/ethnic groups are shown here but are included in the total.


Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 1999 and 2010

Race/ Ethnicity

1999 2010


Median Household

Income*


Median Household

Income*

NH White 856,055 7.9 $61,542 1,111,251 9.5 $59,517

Hispanic (All Races) 1,658,434 25.4 $39,101 2,555,080 26.8 $37,087

Black 515,859 23.3 $38,378 717,458 24.7 $35,674

Asian 63,598 11.7 $65,633 120,601 12.6 $64,191

Total 3,117,609 15.4 $52,260 4,521,023 17.9 $48,615

*In 2010 Dollars.


Not all race/ethnic groups are shown here but are included in the total.


Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA, Texas, 1999 and 2010

Race/ Ethnicity

1999 2010


Median Household

Income*


Median Household

Income*

NH White 52,995 7.0 $70,307 87,639 9.3 $64,893

Hispanic (All Races) 57,897 18.1 $50,599 139,333 25.6 $39,843

NH Black 15,932 17.8 $47,130 29,904 24.4 $38,465

Asian 6,502 15.6 $64,801 11,352 13.9 $67,317

Total 134,589 11.1 $63,905 274,801 15.9 $55,744

*In 2010 Dollars



Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for Dallas-Forth Worth-Arlington MSA, Texas, 1999 and 2010

Race/ Ethnicity

1999 2010


Median Household

Income*


Median Household

Income*

NH White 168,399 5.5 $72,291 234,244 7.3 $66,611


NH Black 134,474 19.7 $43,070 220,867 23.6 $37,539

Asian 19,165 10.0 $72,049 37,441 11.0 $70,006

Total 547,385 10.8 $63,245 934,827 14.6 $54,449

*In 2010 Dollars



Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA, Texas, 1999 and 2010

Race/ Ethnicity

1999 2010


Median Household

Income*


Median Household

Income*

NH White 142,906 6.2 $73,353 167,593 7.1 $72,480


NH Black 167,271 22.0 $41,210 223,990 22.2 $39,638

Asian 25,338 11.4 $67,702 50,732 12.9 $67,333

Total 635,349 13.7 $58,497 986,220 16.5 $53,942

*In 2010 Dollars



Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA, Texas, 1999 and 2010

Race/ Ethnicity

1999 2010


Median Household

Income*


Median Household

Income*

NH White 47,870 6.9 $63,329 57,496 7.4 $63,067


NH Black 17,941 19.0 $42,457 24,354 18.5 $39,004

Asian 2,277 9.8 $53,032 4,778 11.1 $56,056

Total 252,311 15.1 $51,091 351,737 16.3 $50,225

*In 2010 Dollars



Percent of the Population Age 25 and Older in the United States and Texas with Less Than High School

Diploma/GED by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

9.3 8

37.840.4

17.913.714.5 14.315.2

9.3

14.4

19.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

United States Texas

NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Asian NH Other Total

PROJECTIONS

U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: Census 2010 and Projected for 2020 to 2060

Year(Resident population as of July 1, Number in thousands)

Non-HispanicHispanic

(any race) Total White alone Black alone Asian alone All other

races

2010 196,818 37,686 14,465 9,299 50,478 308,7462020 199,312 41,776 18,246 10,778 63,784 333,8962030 198,818 45,452 22,044 13,502 78,655 358,4712040 193,887 48,769 25,881 16,603 94,876 380,0162050 186,334 51,988 29,583 20,166 111,732 399,8032060 178,952 55,302 33,106 24,128 128,780 420,268

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census and 2012 National Projections

Numeric Change in U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2010 to 2060 (in millions)

-17.9

17.6 18.6 14.8

78.3

111.5

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other Hispanic(any race)

Total

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census and 2012 National Projections

Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative Assumptions of Age

and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Rates of Net Migration

62

Year NH1 White NH Black HispanicNH Asian &

Other2 Total

Assuming Zero Net Migration

2010 11,397,345 2,886,825 9,460,921 1,400,470 25,145,5612020 11,576,595 3,122,637 11,137,672 1,536,693 27,373,5972030 11,501,020 3,280,941 12,869,753 1,638,249 29,289,9632040 11,182,576 3,355,500 14,570,851 1,714,232 30,823,1592050 10,766,622 3,366,528 16,191,150 1,728,206 32,052,506

Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010

2010 11,397,345 2,886,825 9,460,921 1,400,470 25,145,5612020 11,752,530 3,295,198 12,031,059 1,825,130 28,903,9172030 11,850,180 3,658,997 15,082,058 2,309,763 32,900,9982040 11,676,157 3,951,909 18,489,803 2,881,525 36,999,3942050 11,376,576 4,182,155 22,268,390 3,483,178 41,310,299

Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010

2010 11,397,345 2,886,825 9,460,921 1,400,470 25,145,5612020 11,931,815 3,477,928 13,003,159 2,170,409 30,583,3112030 12,211,664 4,080,453 17,702,132 3,288,536 37,282,7852040 12,194,151 4,653,725 23,514,974 4,953,861 45,316,7112050 12,024,913 5,195,861 30,701,208 7,283,548 55,205,530

1NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values shown are only for the non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanicsof all races. 2NH Asian & Other category includes non-Hispanic persons who identify themselves as belonging to two or more race groups.

Percent of the Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected Through 2050 Under Alternative Assumptions of Age and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Rates of Net

Migration for the State of Texas

Year NH1 White NH Black HispanicNH Asian& Other2 Total

Assuming Zero Net Migration (Scenario 0.0)

2010 45.3 11.5 37.6 5.6 100.02020 42.3 11.4 40.7 5.6 100.02030 39.3 11.2 43.9 5.6 100.02040 36.3 10.9 47.2 5.6 100.02050 33.6 10.5 50.5 5.4 100.0

Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010 (Scenario 0.5)

2010 45.3 11.5 37.6 5.6 100.02020 40.7 11.4 41.6 6.3 100.02030 36.0 11.1 45.8 7.1 100.02040 31.6 10.7 50.0 7.7 100.02050 27.5 10.2 53.9 8.4 100.0

Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010 (Scenario 1.0)

2010 45.3 11.5 37.6 5.6 100.02020 39.0 11.4 42.5 7.1 100.02030 32.8 10.9 47.5 8.8 100.02040 26.9 10.3 51.9 10.9 100.02050 21.8 9.4 55.6 13.2 100.0

1NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values shown are only for the non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanicsof all races. 2NH Asian & Other category includes non-Hispanic persons who identify themselves as belonging to two or more race groups.

Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration

for Harris County

Year NH White NH Black HispanicNH Asian &

Other Total

2010 1,349,646 754,258 1,671,540 317,015 4,092,459

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration

2020 1,370,357 819,903 1,994,717 347,798 4,532,7752030 1,342,716 858,777 2,316,580 363,946 4,882,0192040 1,278,423 876,137 2,643,875 371,176 5,169,6112050 1,198,102 876,475 2,946,940 370,587 5,392,104

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010

2020 1,313,873 840,336 2,153,854 400,856 4,708,9192030 1,232,849 901,576 2,698,721 482,625 5,315,7712040 1,118,087 934,326 3,289,505 563,900 5,905,8182050 998,149 945,431 3,909,739 646,530 6,499,849

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010

2020 1,255,205 856,198 2,319,477 459,092 4,889,9722030 1,113,765 921,946 3,099,887 637,362 5,772,9602040 944,770 935,982 3,927,987 851,405 6,660,1442050 784,522 905,382 4,767,431 1,115,138 7,572,473

Source: Tx. State Data Center and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas

Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative

Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Harris County


Other Total

2010 33.0 18.4 40.8 7.7 100.0


2020 30.2 18.1 44.0 7.7 100.02030 27.5 17.6 47.5 7.5 100.02040 24.7 16.9 51.1 7.2 100.02050 22.2 16.3 54.7 6.9 100.0


2020 27.9 17.8 45.7 8.5 100.02030 23.2 17.0 50.8 9.1 100.02040 18.9 15.8 55.7 9.5 100.02050 15.4 14.5 60.2 9.9 100.0


2020 25.7 17.5 47.4 9.4 100.02030 19.3 16.0 53.7 11.0 100.02040 14.2 14.1 59.0 12.8 100.02050 10.4 12.0 63.0 14.7 100.0



for Dallas County


Other Total

2010 784,693 518,732 905,940 158,774 2,368,139


2020 785,498 570,153 1,107,349 177,105 2,640,1052030 753,645 605,355 1,318,991 186,873 2,864,8642040 701,895 627,756 1,545,129 193,673 3,068,4532050 648,778 640,542 1,772,394 196,091 3,257,805


2020 701,757 581,409 1,155,350 198,537 2,637,0532030 597,468 627,910 1,435,586 231,333 2,892,2972040 491,394 656,513 1,742,378 264,046 3,154,3312050 401,233 671,539 2,070,126 295,884 3,438,782


2020 624,417 588,760 1,201,188 221,701 2,636,0662030 464,572 634,100 1,538,137 285,943 2,922,7522040 329,773 645,278 1,881,934 358,341 3,215,3262050 231,828 625,457 2,221,784 443,121 3,522,190



Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Dallas County


Other Total

2010 33.1 21.9 38.3 6.7 100.0


2020 29.8 21.6 41.9 6.7 100.02030 26.3 21.1 46.0 6.5 100.02040 22.9 20.5 50.4 6.3 100.02050 19.9 19.7 54.4 6.0 100.0


2020 26.6 22.0 43.8 7.5 100.02030 20.7 21.7 49.6 8.0 100.02040 15.6 20.8 55.2 8.4 100.02050 11.7 19.5 60.2 8.6 100.0


2020 23.7 22.3 45.6 8.4 100.02030 15.9 21.7 52.6 9.8 100.02040 10.3 20.1 58.5 11.1 100.02050 6.6 17.8 63.1 12.6 100.0



for Bexar County


Other Total

2010 519,123 118,460 1,006,958 70,232 1,714,773


2020 528,196 128,549 1,146,274 77,163 1,880,1822030 520,278 135,508 1,276,112 81,862 2,013,7602040 501,507 139,706 1,389,461 84,628 2,115,3022050 481,423 143,029 1,486,500 84,692 2,195,644


2020 525,902 136,229 1,217,709 94,201 1,974,0412030 516,916 152,390 1,439,718 122,526 2,231,5502040 493,614 165,672 1,654,245 154,723 2,468,2542050 469,414 177,610 1,860,268 188,376 2,695,668


2020 522,129 143,464 1,285,885 114,371 2,065,8492030 505,748 166,495 1,590,232 183,992 2,446,4672040 469,453 184,464 1,875,503 287,647 2,817,0672050 432,051 195,931 2,122,756 430,044 3,180,782



Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Bexar County


Other Total

2010 30.3 6.9 58.7 4.1 100.0


2020 28.1 6.8 61.0 4.1 100.02030 25.8 6.7 63.4 4.1 100.02040 23.7 6.6 65.7 4.0 100.02050 21.9 6.5 67.7 3.9 100.0


2020 26.6 6.9 61.7 4.8 100.02030 23.2 6.8 64.5 5.5 100.02040 20.0 6.7 67.0 6.3 100.02050 17.4 6.6 69.0 7.0 100.0


2020 25.3 6.9 62.2 5.5 100.02030 20.7 6.8 65.0 7.5 100.02040 16.7 6.5 66.6 10.2 100.02050 13.6 6.2 66.7 13.5 100.0



for Travis County


Other Total

2010 517,644 82,805 342,766 81,051 1,024,266


2020 542,467 88,465 411,771 90,150 1,132,8532030 536,215 91,785 478,734 95,689 1,202,4232040 513,780 92,461 549,628 100,435 1,256,3042050 486,487 91,175 616,939 102,802 1,297,403


2020 564,581 90,350 439,296 106,656 1,200,8832030 573,841 95,516 545,978 132,872 1,348,2072040 558,255 97,481 666,649 162,469 1,484,8542050 545,614 96,850 794,234 194,266 1,630,964


2020 588,721 91,589 467,601 125,349 1,273,2602030 614,740 96,704 614,488 182,710 1,508,6422040 598,425 96,434 777,758 260,243 1,732,8602050 591,906 91,337 944,620 362,957 1,990,820



Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Travis County


Other Total

2010 50.5 8.1 33.5 7.9 100.0


2020 47.9 7.8 36.3 8.0 100.02030 44.6 7.6 39.8 8.0 100.02040 40.9 7.4 43.7 8.0 100.02050 37.5 7.0 47.6 7.9 100.0


2020 47.0 7.5 36.6 8.9 100.02030 42.6 7.1 40.5 9.9 100.02040 37.6 6.6 44.9 10.9 100.02050 33.5 5.9 48.7 11.9 100.0


2020 46.2 7.2 36.7 9.8 100.02030 40.7 6.4 40.7 12.1 100.02040 34.5 5.6 44.9 15.0 100.02050 29.7 4.6 47.4 18.2 100.0


HEALTH & HEALTHCARE

34.4

7.6

17.1

2.6

40.7

17.0

71.3

17.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian & Other

Millions

2010 2050

Incidences of Diseases and Disorders by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050

Total Incidences:2010: 61.6 Million2050: 146.0 Million

NH White, 55.5

NH Black, 12.8

Hispanic, 27.3

NH Asian & Other,

4.4

NH White, 28.1

NH Black, 12Hispanic,

47.9

NH Asian & Other,

12

2010 2050

Incidences of Diseases and Disorders by Race/Ethnicity (%) in 2010 and Projected to

2050

NH White, 17.2

NH Black, 10.1

Hispanic, 63.8

NH Asian & Other,

8.9

NH White, 41.2

NH Black, 13.9

Hispanic, 41.1

NH Asian & Other,

3.8

2010 2050

Incidence of Feeling Sad at Least Once in the Past Month by Race/Ethnicity (%) in 2010 and Projected to 2050

NH White, 19.4

NH Black, 12.0

Hispanic, 56.6

NH Asian & Other, 12.0

NH White, 45.3

NH Black, 13.9

Hispanic, 35.8

NH Asian & Other,

5.0

2010 2050

Diabetes Prevalence by Race/Ethnicity (%) in 2010 and Projected to 2050

NH White, 47.9

NH Black, 9.8

Hispanic, 32.9

NH Asian & Other, 9.4

NH White, 75.6

NH Black, 7.2

Hispanic, 14.7

NH Asian & Other,

2.5

2010 2050

Cancer Prevalence by Race/Ethnicity (%) in 2010 and Projected to 2050

TEXAS EDUCATION

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. https://www.bls.gov/emp/chart-unemployment-earnings-education.htm

86

Mean Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Educational Attainment, and Occupation In Texas in 2010

OccupationsLess Than

High SchoolHigh School

/GEDBachelor's

DegreeGraduate/

Prof DegreeNH White

Managerial & Professional $ 72,446 $ 84,504 $ 120,792 $ 149,819Technical, Sales, & Admin. 52,930 64,179 112,843 130,471 Precision Prod., Craft, & Repairers 55,079 68,247 94,875 119,057 Operatives and Laborers 48,819 61,211 77,581 89,720 Total 50,533 64,975 114,698 144,714

NH BlackManagerial & Professional $ 47,483 $ 52,186 $ 84,758 $ 99,073Technical, Sales, & Admin. 33,980 43,933 75,416 80,852 Precision Prod., Craft, & Repairers 42,767 53,192 82,885 69,805 Operatives and Laborers 37,811 46,296 66,181 63,707 Total 31,072 42,465 78,933 94,490

HispanicManagerial & Professional $ 52,178 $ 61,992 $ 88,036 $ 116,400Technical, Sales, & Admin. 40,131 50,127 81,005 91,155 Precision Prod., Craft, & Repairers 42,302 51,527 63,695 63,345 Operatives and Laborers 41,273 47,455 54,282 57,806 Total 38,221 47,760 81,548 108,473

NH Asian & OtherManagerial & Professional $ 84,172 $ 73,016 $ 103,737 $ 130,603Technical, Sales, & Admin. 52,764 60,719 86,039 105,469 Precision Prod., Craft, & Repairers 54,594 63,451 70,778 92,041 Operatives and Laborers 47,939 49,015 60,895 65,074 Total 50,815 55,496 93,474 123,035 Source: Ruggles et al. 2010; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2010 Public Use Microdata Sample, 2011.

Total Public Education (All Levels) and Public Elementary and Secondary School Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using the

Projections That Assume 2000–2010 Rates of Net Migration for Texas

Year NHa White NH Black HispanicNH Asian & Other Total

Total Public Education (All Levels)*2010 2,137,393 832,202 2,805,785 348,791 6,124,1712020 2,109,148 874,294 3,490,796 533,046 7,007,2842030 2,128,376 955,194 4,428,574 682,196 8,194,3402040 2,037,804 1,028,997 5,778,539 973,986 9,819,3262050 1,979,109 1,095,342 7,207,206 1,469,755 11,751,412

Public Elementary and Secondary Schools2010 1,547,693 632,401 2,398,684 269,066 4,847,8442020 1,548,792 646,756 2,917,449 406,755 5,519,7522030 1,577,470 706,263 3,715,984 480,533 6,480,2502040 1,479,111 754,173 4,865,439 726,452 7,825,1752050 1,446,198 798,125 6,012,677 1,109,443 9,366,443Source: Projections by the authors and 2010 data and rates derived from Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools 2011-2012, 2011; Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, Demographic Data for Public Community College and University Students for 1980-2010, 2011.*Excludes public health related educational institutions.

Percent of Total Public Education (All Levels), Public Elementary and Secondary School Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and

Projected to 2050 Using the Projections That Assume 2000–2010 Rates of Net Migration for Texas

Year NH White NH Black HispanicNH Asian

& OtherTotal Public Education (All Levels)*

2010 34.9 13.6 45.8 5.72020 30.1 12.5 49.8 7.62030 26.0 11.7 54.0 8.32040 20.8 10.5 58.8 9.92050 16.8 9.3 61.3 12.6

Public Elementary and Secondary Schools2010 31.9 13.0 49.5 5.62020 28.1 11.7 52.9 7.32030 24.3 10.9 57.3 7.52040 18.9 9.6 62.2 9.32050 15.4 8.5 64.2 11.9Source: Projections by the authors and 2010 data and rates derived from Texas Education Agency, Demographic Data for Public School Students for 1980-2010, 2011;Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools 2011-2012, 2011; Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 2011, Demographic Data for Public Community College and University Students for 1980-2010, 2011.*Excludes public health related educational institutions.Note: Enrollment data based on 2009-10 school years.

Total Public Community College, Public University, and Total Public College and University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using the Projection that Assumes 2000-2010

Age and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Texas

Year NH White* NH Black HispanicNH Asian & Other Total

Public Community Colleges2010 314,976 130,786 263,600 37,261 746,6232020 299,721 149,167 370,868 58,999 878,7552030 296,231 163,939 459,618 92,693 1,012,4812040 297,987 181,123 590,855 117,643 1,187,6082050 285,152 196,248 771,788 170,627 1,423,815

Public Universities2010 274,724 69,015 143,501 42,464 529,7042020 260,635 78,371 202,479 67,292 608,7772030 254,675 84,992 252,972 108,970 701,6092040 260,706 93,701 322,245 129,891 806,5432050 247,759 100,969 422,741 189,685 961,154

Total Public Colleges and Universities2010 589,700 199,801 407,101 79,725 1,276,3272020 560,356 227,538 573,347 126,291 1,487,5322030 550,906 248,931 712,590 201,663 1,714,0902040 558,693 274,824 913,100 247,534 1,994,1512050 532,911 297,217 1,194,529 360,312 2,384,969* NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values for categories labeled NH are only for the Non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.Source: Projections by the authors; and Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, 2010 Public College and University Enrollment Database, 2012.

Percent of Public Community College, Public University, and Total Public College and University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and

Projected to 2050 Using the Projection that Assumes 2000-2010 Age and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Texas

Year NH White* NH Black Hispanic NH Asian & Other

Public Community Colleges2010 42.2 17.5 35.3 5.02020 34.1 17.0 42.2 6.72030 29.3 16.2 45.4 9.12040 25.1 15.3 49.8 9.82050 20.0 13.8 54.2 12.0

Public Universities2010 51.9 13.0 27.1 8.02020 42.8 12.9 33.3 11.02030 36.3 12.1 36.1 15.52040 32.3 11.6 40.0 16.12050 25.8 10.5 44.0 19.7

Total Public Colleges and Universities2010 46.2 15.7 31.9 6.22020 37.7 15.3 38.5 8.52030 32.1 14.5 41.6 11.82040 28.0 13.8 45.8 12.42050 22.3 12.5 50.1 15.1Note: Enrollment data based upon 2009-10 school years.* NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values for categories labeled NH are only for the Non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.Source: Projections by the authors; and Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, 2010 Public College and University Enrollment Database, 2012.

Mean Consumer Expenditures in 2010 and Projected for 2050 Under Alternative Assumptions of Socioeconomic Closure

Between Minority and NonHispanic White Households

$49,165$45,081

$62,915

$89,332

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

Current AssumingRace/Ethnicity Specific

Rates

Avg. Rates of Closure,1980-2010

Full Closure to WhiteRates for 2050

20502010

Percent of All Households in Poverty in 2010 and Projected for 2050 Under Alternative Assumptions of Socioeconomic Closure

Between Minority and NonHispanic White Households

17.8

20.9 20.3

11.9

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Current Assuming Race/EthnicitySpecific Rates

Avg. Rates of Closure,1980-2010

Full Closure to WhiteRates for 2050

20502010

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Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in the United States (in Millions), 2000-2016

Source: Passel, Jeffrey and D’Vera Cohn, “U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Total Dips to Lowest Level in a Decade,” Washington, D.C. Pew Hispanic Center, November 27, 2018.

95

Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in Texas (in Millions), 2000-2016

Source: Passel, Jeffrey and D’Vera Cohn, “U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Total Dips to Lowest Level in a Decade,” Washington, D.C. Pew Hispanic Center, November 27, 2018.

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