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GEOGRAPHY - CORE THEME #1POPULATIONS IN TRANSITION

2 BILLION

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Population growth since the Stone Age Population growth since 1750

Watch an animated dot map showing the evolution of the human population for the last 2000 years: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BbkQiQyaYc

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The Malthusian ProjectionThomas Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population (England, 1798)

[There is a] constant effort towards an increase in population [which tends to] subject the lower classes of society to distress and to prevent any great permanent amelioration of their condition. The way in which these effects are produced seems to be this: we will suppose the means of subsistence in any country just equal to the easy support of its inhabitants. The constant effort towards population (…) increases the number of people before the means of subsistence are increased. The food therefore, which before supplied seven millions, must now be divided among seven millions and half or eight millions. The poor consequently must live much worse, and many of them be reduced to severe distress (…). The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world.

Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968

Population control – or race to oblivion? Overpopulation is now the dominant problem in all our personal, national and international planning. No one can do rational planning, nor can public policy be resolved in any area unless one first takes into account the population bomb (…). The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds to millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now (…). Population control is the conscious regulation of the numbers of human beings to meet the needs not just of individual families, but of society as a whole.

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MAIN DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORSType of indicator Indicator Definition Limitations

BIRTH

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)Number of live births per 1,000 people per year

Affected by age-sex structure

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

Fertility of an imaginary woman who passes through her reproductive life(15-49) subject to all the age-specific fertility rates for ages 15–49 that were recorded for a given population in a given yearTo see how it is calculated, go to:www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/animations/fecondity/

Not based on the fertility of any real group of women

Replacement Fertility Rate

TFR needed to achieve demographic equilibrium (stable population): 2.1 to 2.3 (up to 3.0 for high CMR)

Doesn’t take into account migratory gains/losses

MORTALITY

Crude Death Rate (CDR)Number of deaths per 1,000 people per year Affected by age structure

Infant mortality Rate (IMR)

Number of infants who died before the age of 1 per 1,000 live births

Can be affected when counting mortality linked to infanticides or sometimes miscarriages

Child mortality Rate (CMR)Number of children who died before the age of 5 per 1,000 live births

Life expectancy

Average number of years of life remaining at a given age.To see how it is calculated, go to:www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/animations/life_expectancy/

Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) depends highly on IMR or CMR, so demographers sometimes prefer Life Expectancy at Five (LEF)

NATURAL GROWTH Rate of Natural Increase Natural gain per 1,000 people per year (RNI = CBR – CDR)

Doesn’t take into account migratory gains/losses

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CBR Mexico

CDR Mexico

CBR Sweden

CDR Sweden

Birth and Mortality and Sweden and Mexico(1735-2000)

CBR: Crude Birth Rate (= live birth / 1000 people / year)CDR: Crude Death Rate (= death / 1000 people / year)

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Birth and MortalityIn the Middle East

(1950-2004)

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North America

EastAsia

North AfricaMiddle East Oceania

Europe

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Latin AmericaCaribbean

Central-SouthAsia

Russia

China

India

Brazil

Mexico

SouthAfrica

© 2011 Antoine Delaitre

Developed Countries

Post-Communist Transition

North/South Limit

Main Oil Exporters (OPEC)

Emerging Powers

Intermediary Countries

Least Developed Countries (LDCs)

DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATIONS: PATTERNS AT A GLOBAL SCALE

20% Pop.80% Wealth

80% Pop.20% Wealth

MEDCs (“North”) LEDCs (“South”)

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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS (1950-2050)

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

2010

20102010

2010

WORLD

EAST ASIA EUROPE

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The Demographic Transition Model(DTM)

AFRICA

ASIA

EUROPE

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DTM stage Pre-Transition Early Transition Middle Transition Post-Transition

CDR / CBRHigh and stable CDR/CBR

(40-50)(“accidents”: famine,

epidemics)

Decreasing CDR (20-30)

High CBR (40-50)

Very low CDR (<10)Decreasing CBR (20-

30)

Moderate increase of CDR 10

Low CBR 10

RNI Low RNI< 10

Very high and increasing RNI

>20High but declining RNI

10-20Low or negative RNI

-5 to 10

Growth Stable or slow growth Very rapid growth Rapid but declining growth

Slow growth or decline?

Examples No examples today Sub Saharan AfricaLatin America, Middle

East, South Asia (India)

World average

Europe, North America, East Asia

(China)

4 STAGES OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

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IMPACTING FACTORS MORTALITY FERTILITY

SOCIOCULTURAL FACTORS

Education (linked to healthcare/revenue) Age structure: lower CDR in younger populations (see CDR

Sub-Saharan African 1950-2050) vs higher CDR in older populations (see CDR in Europe 1950-2050)

Gender equality and status of women (measured by GDI – Gender Development Index)

Female education (linked to revenue/healthcare/birth control/professional ambition)

Age of marriage: couples (particularly women) tend to start procreating only once they are married

Residence can contribute to higher CBR:o Rural areas: rigid social pressures on women,

less state control (China), fewer educational opportunities for women

o Slums: young/poor population from rural background

Religion: most religions are opposed to birth control or contraception, but limited impact on actual behavior (ex: Algeria v Yemen, Brazil vs Poland)

ECONOMIC FACTORS

Revenue (affects nutrition, education, healthcare). Ex: Blacks vs Whites in South Africa

Nutrition (2500 cal/day recommended) (linked to revenue) Industrialization and technology (linked to better farming

outputs) Residence: slums (pollution, poverty: Rio de Janeiro), poor

rural areas (low farm productivity: Nordeste Brazil) Hazardous occupations: soldiers, miners, farmers, etc

Revenue: people with no retirement plans or social security in some countries see large families as able a means to increase the family’s workforce (farmers), and a protection for their old age

Standard of living: raising a child is costly in countries with a high standard of living

Professional ambition of women can be incompatible with repeated pregnancies

ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS Pollution (respiratory diseases), heat (infants and seniors) Pollution may affect fertility (uncertain)

HEALTH FACTORS

Healthcare, primarily for infants (see IMR) or older people (see LEB) (linked to revenue/education)

Infectious diseases (LEDC: malaria, diarrhea, cholera, AIDS, etc) and degenerative conditions (MEDC: cancer, stroke, heart disease, obesity)

Access to clean water

Use of birth control, contraception, abortion (linked to education/healthcare)

Longer breastfeeding -> lower TFR Child’s survival rate (linked to healthcare/revenue):

low survival rate may encourage women to have more children to compensate for their losses.

POLITICAL FACTORS Wars, political instability, man-made famines (Sudan) Non coercitive pro-natalist policies: Western Europe

(limited impact) Strict anti-natalist policies: China, India

First, watch this animation about fertility: www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/animations/birth/

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FERTILITY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSource: www.gapminder.org

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia / Middle East

East Asia

Latin America

Europe / North America

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National/State level TFR IMR LEB

Washington 1.80 5.1 79.4

Mississippi 2.26 10.7 73.9

USA 2.09 5.9 79.2

Uttar Pradesh 3.80 67 58.4

Kerala 1.70 12 73.5

India 2.76 54.6 63.5

Regional level TFR CMR LEBEurope

(East/West) 1.50 9 75.1

North America 2.26 7 79.3

East Asia 1.72 28 74

Latin America 2.04 28 73.4

North Africa / Middle East 2.94 45 70

South Asia 2.60 50 66

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.08 148 51.5

World 2.56 71 67.6

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TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR)

2010 averages: World = 2.49 / MEDC = 1.65 / LEDC = 2.62

< 2

2-3

3-5

5-6

> 6

TFR

Niger: 7.19 Taiwan: 1.14

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INFANT MORTALITY RATE (IMR)

2010 averages: World = 47 / MEDC = 6 / LEDC = 52

Angola: 193

Japan: 3.3

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LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH

Japan: 82.1

Angola: 38.2

To estimate how many more years an average person like YOU is expected to live (note: it’s only an average!),go to http://calculator.livingto100.com/calculator

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EXAMPLES OF POPULATION PYRAMIDS

2008

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Age-sex ratios Definition Impact

Sex ratio% of men for 100 women

(human biological sex ratio: 105% at birth)

The sex ratio can sometimes be very imbalanced, for sociocultural or economic reasons, with problematic consequences: High sex ratio at birth (cultural preference for boys, abortions:

120% in China): shortage of brides, lower TFR High sex ratio adults (immigration of young men): Saudi Arabia

129% for age 15-64 Low sex ratio of adults (emigration of young men, alcohol,

cancer): shortage of husbands: loneliness of widows, depression. Russia: 92% at age 15-64, 44% for 65+

Ageing ratio # or % of people under 20 compared to people over 65

An ageing ratio too low or too high reveals future strains on public finances (education, retirement, health care) Low ageing ratio (France, Japan): the population is too old ->

challenge for health care and retirement Moderate ageing ratio (USA, Thailand, China): the population is

balanced High ageing ratio (Kenya, Niger): the population is too young ->

challenge for education

Dependency ratio

% of dependents (children+retirees)compared to productive population

(15-64)

High dependency ratio = burden on the working class to educate the young and/or support the elderly.Ex: Kenya, Niger= very high number of children

Low dependency ratio = there is a sufficiently large work force to support young/elderly.Ex: China, Thailand = large work force

France, Japan or USA have a moderate dependency ratio = the growing number of elderly is offset by the declining number of children

Median age The age that divides the populationinto two groups of equal size

Measure the age of a population: SEE TABLE WITH IMPACT OF AGEWorld median age in 2010 = 29.1 (ie: 50% are younger than 29.1)

AGE-SEX IMBALANCES

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TYPICAL POPULATION PYRAMIDS

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Pyramids Developing countries (LEDC) Developed countries (MEDC)

Shape Triangular pyramid Cylinder or spinning top

BaseWide base:

Poverty + poor education -> high TFR(TFR = 2.73, Africa = 7)

Narrow base:Affluence + good education -> low TFR

(TFR = 1.64)

TopNarrow top:

Poor health care -> low life expectancy(LEB = 66)

Widen top:Good health care -> high life expectancy

(LEB = 77)

Significance

“Population explosion”

Low median age + ageing ratio -> Large work force in 10-20 years. This can be beneficial ONLY IF that population can be educated and later find professional opportunities (ex: China), but represents a major challenge in very poor countries (ex: Niger, Uganda: 50% < age 15).

Confronted to those challenges, these countries usually try to adopt anti-natalist policies. But the poorest countries are also the ones who have the least government control to enforce any efficient policy (lack of funds, corruption, civil unrest)

“Population contraction” High median age + ageing ratio -> challenge for shrinking young generations who have to support a growing number of retirees (Germany, Japan) + risk of population contraction UNLESS fertility increases to allow the replacement of generations (>2.1) OR unless the country opens to immigration (double benefit: influx of young pop + immigrants are usually poorer, less educated and therefore tend to have a higher fertility rate) (ex: USA)

Confronted to those challenges, these countries usually try to adopt pro-natalist policies or push back the retirement age (ex: legal retirement age 60 -> 62 in France 2010?), while opening to immigration often remains a sensitive political issue (Japan, Western Europe)

TYPICAL POPULATION PYRAMIDS

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Youthful population(median age < 25)

Ageing population(median age > 35)

Opportunities

Young, dynamic, creative population -> progressivism Large work force in the short term future

Opposite of challenges of youthful population: good infrastructures, resources, food supplies, low unemployment, abundant resources, less social tension and crime.

New market (“third age”, “seniors”) -> active healthy population with free time (need for recreation, artistic or health care jobs)

Challenges

Pressure on infrastructures: housing shortage, slums, roads, water, sewage, etc

Pressure on services: education (crowded classrooms, low schooling rate, high illiteracy rate), health care (high infant mortality and low life expectancy, rapid spread of epidemics), transportation, police, etc

Pressure on food supplies -> malnourishment leading to occasional famine when coupled with civil unrest or climate accident

Pressure on working population (high dependency ratio) -> public debt

Pressure on job market -> unemployment, emigration (males) sometimes leading to unbalanced sex ratio, higher crime rates

Pressure on resources -> smaller farming lots, desertification, lack of water

Pressure on future generations (high population momentum) -> the challenges above will go on for at least a generation

Pressure on idle young men -> “youth bulge” leading to civil unrest, war or terrorism? (controversial theory of Gunnar Heinsohn, 2003)

Lack of dynamism and creativity -> conservatism

Pressure on retirement plans (high ageing ratio) -> reduced benefits, higher taxes, extension of working age

Pressure on health care (high life expectancy) -> increasing medical costs

Pressure on to allow immigration -> sensitive political issue

IMPACT OF AGE ON A POPULATION

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Japan: 44.7 China: 34.2 Kenya: 18.4France: 40.1 India: 25.0 Uganda: 15.0USA: 36.6 Egypt: 23.9 World: 29.1

MEDIAN AGE

Uganda: 15

Japan: 44.7

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Dependency ratio:• DR < 50%: low•DR 50-80%: moderate•DR > 80: high

Ageing ratio:• AR < 3: low•AR 3-5: moderate•AR > 5: high

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Population Momentum Factor:PMF < 1: negative momentum = snowballing effect of ageing population will lead to a decline without immigrationPMF = 1: no momentum = no snowballing effect of youthful/ageing and population can reach equilibrium if nothing changes PMF > 1: positive momentum = snowballing effect of the youthful population which will contribute to continued growth even with low TFR

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POPULATION EXPLOSION, EQUILIBRIUM OR CONTRACTION?

See how fertility (TFR) and life expectancy (LEB) impact the future of a population using your own simulation: www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/play_population/population_simulator/

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Wheat yields in developing countries(1950-2004)

Food intake (1964-2030)Recommended: 2,500 calories/day